NFL QB Stock Report, Week 12: Patrick Mahomes Drops; Caleb Williams deserves your patience

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NFL QB Stock Report, Week 12: Patrick Mahomes Drops; Caleb Williams deserves your patience

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and his Kansas City counterpart Patrick Mahomes put on another epic showdown on Sunday. That match lives up to the hype almost every time, doesn’t it?

Anyway, as a result of the Bills’ 30-21 win in Orchard Park, Allen overtook Mahomes in our quarterback rankings for the first time since Week 5.

The Athletic’s Week 12 QB rankings

Allen put an exclamation point on the performance and powered his way down the field with a 26-yard touchdown run on fourth-and-2 that capped the scoring.

JOSH. ALL. GREATNESS.

📺: #KCvsBUF on CBS/Paramount+
📱: pic.twitter.com/3HyIoDCaAC

—NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024

It’s the way they did it that made the game so shocking. Mahomes, whose numbers are down across the board this season, has been excused due to the injuries and fallen depth chart surrounding him, but Allen has mostly done well while going through similar circumstances.

Allen’s leading receiver, during the season and again on Sunday, was Khalil Shakir, who was third on the depth chart in 2023. Shakir delivered game-highs of eight catches and 70 yards against the Chiefs. Curtis Samuel, an eighth-year wideout on his third team, was an afterthought for much of the season but made five grabs for 58 yards, including a fourth-quarter touchdown. Amari Cooper, a trade deadline acquisition who missed the past two games with a wrist injury, had two big catches for 55 yards.

And yet Allen trusted his group and made enough big plays on his own to hang 30 on the Chiefs’ fifth-ranked scoring defense (which started Sunday). That group hadn’t allowed 30 points since Super Bowl LVII against the Philadelphia Eagles. Allen finished 27 of 40 passing for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception; he also paced the Bills with 55 rushing yards and the crucial score.

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Mahomes, on the other hand, finished 23 of 33 passing for 196 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He leaned on rookie receiver Xavier Worthy (four catches, 61 yards, one touchdown), tight end Noah Gray (four catches, 23 yards, two touchdowns) and DeAndre Hopkins (three catches, 29 yards).

Even though Mahomes wasn’t at his best, his mere presence changed the game. Call it the flashbacks of Mahomes’ heroics in his three playoff wins against the Bills, or just plain common sense, but the Bills sidestepped a 44-yard field attempt to take a 26-21 lead with 2:27 remaining over — instead going for it on fourth down rather than giving up a game-winning opportunity for Mahomes.

Greatness led to greatness. This time, Allen delivered while Mahomes watched from the sideline.

Allen opened the season ranked No. 2, but overtook Mahomes in Week 4. The Bills star stayed at the top for just two weeks before falling, dropping to No. 4, but he has moved up one spot in two of the last three weeks.

Mahomes, meanwhile, reclaimed the No. 1 spot in weeks 6-7 before Lamar Jackson took control. Mahomes’ resume had a lot to do with that, but feedback from coaches and executives cemented his position despite relatively ordinary stats. Now at No. 3, this is the lowest Mahomes ranked in our debut season of the QB Stock Report.

Allen is coming off the bye with a big Week 13 game against the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football. Two weeks after that, he visits the Detroit Lions, which gives him a few more chances in the spotlight to chip away at Jackson’s lead in the MVP race.

If Allen wins the coveted award for the first time, the knockout touchdown against the Chiefs could be his MVP moment.

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Stop… stop?

It didn’t help on the scoreboard, as the Green Bay Packers blocked the Chicaco Bears’ game-winning field goal attempt, but Caleb Williams seemed more comfortable in his first game with Thomas Brown as offensive coordinator. Williams finished 23 of 31 passing for 231 yards and was one play away from delivering his first game-winning drive.

We were pretty thorough last week when we went over Williams’ issues, but since then we’ve heard a new perspective to put his start into context.

Much has been made of how long Williams held the ball and took too many sacks, but it’s important to understand the adjustment to the NFL game. An executive who studied Williams extensively before the draft pointed out that the quarterback was not asked to read the safety rotations before the snap under coach Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma and USC.

“That forces you to play slowly if you’re not used to it,” the director said. “I think our expectations for these guys are unrealistic, but that’s the nature of the business. Hiding back coverage is all the rage in the NFL right now. That means you’re asking someone to go from high school math to advanced math, with no classes in between. I don’t think that’s indicative of who he is as a player.”

So yes, Williams has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long because he played off the schedule so much in college, and that’s harder to do now. But it’s not necessarily because Williams stubbornly holds the ball for too long – although that has certainly been the case on occasion – as it has a lot to do with trying to read more complex defenses in real time, often without the experience of proper fundamentals at earlier levels. .

Williams needs time and experience to improve in those areas. When he reaches that point, the natural talent should take over.

(Steel) curtain call

Russell Wilson makes the most of his third act.

The 35-year-old has won all four of his starts with the Pittsburgh Steelers and has done a lot in the past month to change the narrative after three rough seasons with the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos. He has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 942 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions since taking over for Justin Fields.

Wilson deserves credit for playing well, especially at this stage of his career after struggling so much, but it’s also a big testament to the Steelers. They put him in good situations and don’t ask him to play above his means, which is exactly how it should be for any quarterback.

“They’re revisiting the pre-‘Let Russ Cook’ formula when he came in,” one executive said. “They play the ball, ask him for a play-action pass, to win high-leverage situations, and that’s what he’s good at. Things start to fall apart when you make him a high-volume passer. I think it’s sustainable as long as his body holds up. And they have the best defense in the league.”

There is minimal pressure on Wilson and the Steelers to make this work. He makes the league minimum because the Broncos are paying the balance of his compensation money, so there’s no reason to send it out to justify his contract. And because Wilson has flashed enough on the deep ball, the Steelers’ run game has benefited as well.

Of course, the Steelers have also allowed just 19 points per game in his four starts, so Wilson hasn’t had to win any shootouts, barring the 28-27 thriller against Jayden Daniels and the Commanders in Week 10. Realistically, Wilson wasn’t. He wasn’t going to play with Jackson on Sunday, but that wasn’t necessary because the defense was strong.

It’s a sustainable model, though the ceiling for both Wilson and the Steelers can be measured in their last four games against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals. But for now, Wilson and the Steelers are perfect for each other.

On a related note…

Jackson had another rough day against a team that was his number, completing just 16 of 33 passes for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception, along with 46 rushing yards, as the Ravens fell a few games behind the Steelers in the AFC North dropped.

As strong as Jackson has played this season, these types of performances have not been unpredictable. The Steelers (5-2), Chiefs (4-1) and Raiders (2-1) are the only teams with a winning record against the two-time MVP.

Jackson has completed 57% of his passes for 1,077 yards, five touchdowns, eight interceptions and a career passer rating of 66.7 against the Steelers. Against all opponents, that ranks second-to-last in completion percentage, eighth-worst in yards per game (153.9) and last in passer rating. His 44 rushing yards per outing against the Steelers are his fourth fewest against any opponent, and he has never rushed for a touchdown against them.

Jackson will face them again on the national stage in Week 16. That will be a big moment for his MVP candidacy, especially four days before a holiday showdown against the Texans.

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Looks Buff

Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders is playing better than any draft-eligible quarterback, and it’s not even close.

That’s the view of a trusted reviewer. But from someone else? Miami’s Cam Ward will likely be the best QB in the class.

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It’s a relatively down year for QBs, so needy teams are rushing to formulate their draft plans. Opinions still vary because it’s still early, but there are also reasons to believe that teams will remain divided on the best prospects come spring. Their hope is that someone will be as strong as Jayden Daniels was a year ago, but the clock is ticking. There could be some big improvements in the design, and we all know how that will turn out.

Like Sanders? Strictly speaking, he’s playing well enough to be worthy of the No. 1 pick. But teams will want to get plenty of time with Sanders during the offseason interview process. They have to assess how important football is to him.

In that sense there is a kind of holding pattern. This time two years ago, teams had questions about CJ Stroud, but he blew them away during the interview process and eased the concerns.

If Sanders does the same, he will put himself in a great position to be the first quarterback off the board. If not? Ward could be the best choice, even though he has a penchant for forcing the ball in high-risk situations.

There may even be quarterback-needy teams in the top 10 that bypass the position altogether due to the uncertainty of the prospects.

Dropped from the rankings: Joe Flacco (on bench), No. 27 last week; Daniel Jones (on bench), No. 29 last week.