NFL QB Stock Report, Week 4: Josh Allen Overtakes Patrick Mahomes for No. 1

September 24, 2024

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NFL QB Stock Report, Week 4: Josh Allen Overtakes Patrick Mahomes for No. 1

There’s a new No. 1 in town: Josh Allen is playing better than anyone on the planet, and he’s got the Buffalo Bills on a mission early in the season.

Besides, Patrick Mahomes didn’t exactly look like… Patrick Mahomes.

While the Kansas City Chiefs star is on track for a career high in completion percentage, he has five touchdowns against four interceptions — nearly as many picks as he had in all of 2019 (five) and 2020 (six) and puts him on track for a career high. His 219.7 passing yards per game would be significantly lower than last year’s career-worst mark of 261.4 and nearly a football field shy of his career-best of 318.6 in 2018.

That’s not to say Mahomes is done for or falling off the same cliff that everyone wanted to push Tom Brady off of in 2014. It’s likely that Mahomes is working to see what works and what doesn’t as the season progresses, just as he did in 2023. They’re adding new elements to the offense, while longtime safety Travis Kelce finally appears to be fading.

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Meanwhile, the Chiefs are undefeated. They have more margin for error than any team in the NFL, especially with a top-tier defense, so Mahomes doesn’t need to put up record-breaking numbers every week like he did earlier in his career. He’s smart enough to recognize that after winning three Super Bowls, there’s a long-term element at stake. Remember, the Chiefs looked vulnerable to another epic playoff run for most of last season.

Mahomes’ superlatives are still unmatched. And if the NFL were to start a fantasy draft again, Mahomes would be the consensus top pick. Whether he puts up numbers or not, Mahomes is still a nightmare for defenses with the game or the season on the line.

But Allen has been significantly better this season. He has completed 75 percent of his passes for 634 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also added 85 rushing yards and two scores on the ground.

Even after losing Stefon Diggs and key members of the defense, Allen’s Bills are the only team to start the season with three 30-point games. He appears to be the early favorite for MVP honors.

The Athletic’s QB Rankings for Week 4

This week in ‘why coaching is important…’

Sam Darnold, Justin Fields and Malik Willis have already exceeded expectations for the season, and they’re all doing it with new teams.

Darnold, a backup or spot starter in recent years, was brought to Minnesota as a safety net for rookie JJ McCarthy, who tore his meniscus over the summer. The 27-year-old has never looked better, and head coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme is a big reason. Darnold never got an opportunity like this with the New York Jets or Carolina Panthers.

The Pittsburgh Steelers traded Fields to push Russell Wilson, whose calf injury flared up in Week 1. Now, Fields helms an offense that emphasizes his mobility while making smart, timely passes, and the defense is allowing a league-low 8.7 points per game.

There’s absolutely no pressure for Fields to play beyond his capabilities, and he’s completing an astonishing 73.3 percent of his passes with a single interception. If Fields didn’t have — at the very least — an above-average day with the Chicago Bears, they wouldn’t have much of a chance to win.

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The Green Bay Packers acquired Willis from the Tennessee Titans on Aug. 26 for a seventh-round pick to bolster the backup position. The Packers were essentially in regular-season mode when Willis arrived, so his practice opportunities were limited. The 2022 third-round pick had never thrown a touchdown pass before taking over when Jordan Love sprained his MCL in the opener.

Now Matt LaFleur is the early favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year with Willis, who has led the Packers to two victories while completing 25 of 33 passes for 324 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in two starts. He also has 114 rushing yards and a score.

TAKE IT YOURSELF MALIK!#GBvsTEN photo.twitter.com/bHq0F4vB1g

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 22, 2024

Like Darnold and Fields, Willis entered the league with plenty of talent, but he wasn’t in a great situation because of the offense around him. All three were such unknowns in new situations that they debuted in the bottom 10 of the rankings. Now, with more to show for it, they’re deservedly climbing, though Willis will eventually fall by the wayside when Love returns.

Remember this when you call a quarterback a failure. There are situations every year where QBs — young and old — fail because they don’t get the right help.

And if they also receive the necessary resources, that would be wonderful.

This is 40

Aaron Rodgers delivered a vintage performance against the Patriots on Thursday, completing 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He did what he wanted.

if you look up “poetry in motion” 🔥#NEvsNYJ on Prime Video
Also available to stream on #NFLPlus photo.twitter.com/8X6nr01RCQ

— NFL (@NFL) September 20, 2024

To be fair, the Patriots didn’t put up much defensive resistance. But aside from their poor tackling against the Jets, this was a defense that league evaluators described as tough, aggressive and well-coached, so give Rodgers credit for making it look easy. He was in complete control, delivering quick completions from the pocket or extending plays to give his receivers time to get open.

They still have some solid defenses up their sleeve in the Denver Broncos, Vikings, Buffalo Bills and Steelers, so we’ll soon find out just how big a threat Rodgers and the Jets can be in the AFC. But if Thursday was the start of something, the Jets have a shot at contending in the conference.

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No more stock exchanges

As noted in previous rankings, the standards for certain players can differ based on experience, past performance, the situation around them, high-ceiling or low-floor potential and, of course, current performance. That’s why top draft pick Caleb Williams debuted at No. 19 and projected breakout candidate Anthony Richardson — the 2023 No. 4 pick who entered the season with four career starts — opened at No. 21.

So far, both uber-talented QBs have flashed but have largely been inconsistent. Those inconsistencies were on full display Sunday when they went head-to-head and struggled for most of the game. Circumstances matter, like the performance of the offensive line or play calling. The blame usually doesn’t fall squarely on the QB, at least not in these rankings.

They’ve both fallen to their season lows in the rankings this week. It’s not indicative of their future. It’s entirely representative of their performance.

For Williams in particular, it seems like everything is still going too fast for him. He sent a go-route to an open Rome Odunze in the second half in a bad way on a throw that Williams can make nine times out of ten. However, he rushed his read and delivery, and the throw went wrong as a result. That’s just one example.

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Once Williams and Richardson improve their consistency, they will skyrocket up the rankings. It is not out of the question that they will both finish in the top 20, if not the top half. They just need experience.

Under protection

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Patriots coach Jerod Mayo made the right decision by starting Jacoby Brissett and leaving Drake Maye on the sidelines for safety.

The Patriots have allowed sacks on 12.5 percent of their dropbacks, the third-worst percentage in the league this season and the 14th-worst since sacks became an official statistic in 1982. The 1992 Eagles were the only team to allow that high of a sack percentage and finish the season with a winning record.

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Additionally, Patriots wide receivers have caught a total of 21 passes for 169 yards and one touchdown in three games. There are five wideouts in the league who have surpassed that output on their own.

While there were plausible reasons to start Maye in Week 1, last week put things into perspective. The Panthers have, at best, set Bryce Young’s development back a few years. At worst, they will never get anything back from their heavy draft investment. This is the result of starting Young without enough help around him and letting his confidence sink to the point where they had to bench him.

The Patriots can’t afford to do that with Maye. Their quarterback play has been among the league’s worst in the post-Tom Brady era, as the veteran route with Cam Newton had a limited ceiling and the development path with Mac Jones was an exercise in organizational self-sabotage.

The short-term concern, though, is that Brissett has endured a higher volume of hits that have taken him longer to get back on his feet. It may only be a matter of time before one of them leads to an injury that forces him out. And Maye was sacked twice in 10 dropbacks in a relief appearance against the Jets on Thursday.

While it’s valuable to observe and learn, it’s even more valuable to keep Maye out of harm’s way and maintain his confidence until the Patriots can improve the entire operation around the quarterback.

The Brian Flores Effect

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is on a roll. After beating the struggling Giants in Week 1, Flores’ defense has been a constant headache for Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud, making two of the league’s best quarterbacks look ordinary.

A market correction this week felt necessary for Purdy, who fell from 10th to 12th after losing to the Vikings. We’ll be remembering that sentiment when quarterbacks have subpar days against Flores, and he’s got a few more doozies on the schedule. The Vikings take on the Packers this week (so either Love or Willis) and then face Rodgers, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Richardson and Trevor Lawrence to close out the first half of the season.