NFL QB Tiers 2024: Only 2 join Mahomes in Tier 1; Rodgers, Herbert drop out
The top tier is always exclusive territory when 50 NFL coaches and executives have their say in Quarterback Tiers each summer.
That exclusivity has reached another level this year.
Led by the incomparable Patrick Mahomes, only three players achieved Tier 1 status when balloting for the 11th annual survey was finished. That’s the lowest number since 2016, but with a crop of younger players rising, there’s a potentially bright future for the elite ranks.
The Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson reached new heights. The Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love and the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy made massive jumps. The Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud set a new standard for a second-year QB. You can see the largest risers and fallers in the graphic below.
The 2024 QB Tiers results are here, complete with commentary from the 50 NFL coaches and executives who were granted anonymity to share candid evaluations. The panel consisted of seven general managers, eight head coaches, 12 coordinators, 12 executives, eight assistant coaches and three involved in coaching/analytics.
Each voter placed 30 veteran quarterbacks into five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers based on vote distribution, beginning with Mahomes, whose 1.00 average vote reflected his status as the only unanimous Tier 1 selection. No QBs landed in Tier 5, although some received Tier 5 votes. The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL.
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Tier 1
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure-passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.
Voters have placed Mahomes in the top tier on 249 of 250 ballots over the past five seasons, including all 150 over the past three.
“Is there a zero category (above Tier 1)?” a defensive coordinator asked.
What more is there to say about Mahomes?
“Last year, there was so much adversity with the drops, the Kadarius Toney issues, the lack of guys being able to uncover and separate,” an offensive coach said. “You knew as a competitor he was frustrated. But I watched him just battle and grind it out and not make excuses and dig in. I think he is an extremely tough human being. A lot of people could have been pissed and bitched. If that had happened, the whole thing could have unraveled.”
If Tom Brady remains the GOAT, Mahomes is closing that gap.
“I know people who were taking Philly or San Francisco in the Super Bowl,” a defensive coordinator said. “Dude, they are playing Mahomes. You take Mahomes. He’s like Brady when Brady was in his prime. You can’t bet against that dude because he’s the best in the business.”
An offensive coordinator had Mahomes as his only Tier 1 QB this year.
“The only player to win big with a bad defense,” this coordinator said.
The 2022 Chiefs won the Super Bowl while ranking 29th in combined EPA on defense and special teams. The 2019 and 2022 Chiefs had the worst combined postseason EPA on defense and special teams of any Super Bowl winners since at least 2000, per TruMedia.
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
The 43 Tier 1 votes for Burrow are six fewer than he received last year after his latest injury, which required surgery on his throwing wrist, amplified durability concerns.
“You love everything about him, but at some point, physically, his body is going to fail,” a defensive coach who has faced Burrow multiple times said.
Burrow’s confidence is one of his most endearing qualities.
“He is a cool, calm, collected, confident version of Kirk Cousins,” another coach said. “He might have a little better arm strength, but the skill set is very similar, except Burrow is not an overthinker. He just has this confidence that he’s right, and he throws with that purpose and that confidence, and normally, he is right.”
Injuries cost Burrow six games as a rookie (knee) and seven last season (calf).
“He is definitely a 1,” a head coach said. “He is an accurate, touch passer with anticipation, but they gotta be careful. He is getting hurt on his throwing arm. You have injuries to your legs like he’s had, that will affect your arm. I’m curious to see how the ball comes off his hand this year.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Allen, like Burrow, landed in Tier 1 for a third consecutive year. He commanded five fewer Tier 1 votes this year compared to last but remained solidly within the top group.
“For me, Mahomes and Josh Allen are the two guys right now that people are the most afraid to play,” a head coach said. “They do not go in and say they are as afraid to go play Joe Burrow. Maybe that is just from a playmaking standpoint. I think Joe is great, but these two (Mahomes and Allen) put teams on their backs and win.”
The cost of Allen’s playmaking — 22 turnovers last season, second-most in the NFL behind Sam Howell — explains why 11 voters did not place him in Tier 1.
“The reason I put him as a 2, I’m wondering if people have caught up to him a little bit,” an offensive coach said. “If he can’t extend the down, it is hard for him to stay on schedule and protect the football. When you see guys throwing bad interceptions, why did they go there with the ball? Is it because they are not understanding what is in front of them?”
Most voters felt Allen handled pure-pass situations well enough to carry his team in critical moments, separating him from players in Tier 2.
“He can pass to win it, and he can just say, ‘Screw it, I’m going to scramble today because my passing sucks,’ and still win it,” another voter said.
Over the past three seasons, Allen leads the NFL in combined passing and rushing touchdowns with 128, 17 more than Mahomes at No. 2. His 59 turnovers rank second to Trevor Lawrence (60).
“If he does not turn the ball over, he is going to make plenty of plays to win the games,” another head coach said. “I think he is a top-three or top-four guy in the league.”
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Kathryn Riiley / Getty Images
Tier 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Jackson surged to the brink of Tier 1 with more top-tier votes this year (23) than he commanded over the previous three combined (20).
“He’s a fantastic dual-threat guy, he’s explosive, he’s dangerous,” an offensive coach said. “This past year, with (new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd) Monken, I thought he took a big step and became a passer. To me, it was so different from the previous years.”
The line between being a good passer and expertly handling pure-pass situations like Baltimore faced while trailing Kansas City in the playoffs is what kept Jackson a few votes away from joining Mahomes, Burrow and Allen in the top group.
For some, Jackson transcends the criteria.
“I just think putting an MVP of this league in Tier 2 is being on some quarterback high horse of what we think it’s supposed to look like,” a voter who placed Jackson in Tier 1 said.
Faring better in the playoffs, where he has a career 75.7 passer rating and a 2-4 record despite strong defensive support, might push Jackson over the top.
“He’s a 1 with limitations for me,” a defensive coordinator said. “You can win a lot of games with him. When you watched it against Kansas City, he can’t pass when he has to. That is still true. But he is still a wonderful football player.”
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Patrick Smith / Getty Images
Stafford’s 1.64 average and No. 5 ranking are both personal bests in 11 years of Tiers voting.
“When people put their top 10 quarterbacks together, he is always eight or nine, but he is better than anyone thinks,” a voter placing Stafford in Tier 1 said. “So consistent, so strong, reads defenses so well, can do anything with his arm talent. He is the reason that team is so good.”
Voters lauded Stafford’s ability to handle pure-pass situations.
“I do not want him to have the ball late,” a defensive coordinator said.
A reworked contract gives Stafford more money in 2024 while giving the Rams an easy out after the season, raising questions about his future.
“The guy delivers,” a GM said. “He handles pure pass probably as well as anybody. He won a Super Bowl. He consistently brings his team back. I have no problem with a 1 on him.”
Some fear Stafford could be winding down physically at 36. The Rams’ recommitment to the run game could help him play longer.
“He’s always been a great player,” a head coach said. “But to unlock the Super Bowl Matt Stafford, getting him with Sean (McVay) and putting him in a structure where they had a run game and had a defense was critical.”
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Rey Del Rio / Getty Images
Herbert fell from Tier 1 but remained the fifth-ranked quarterback for a third consecutive year. His 30-32 career record with no playoff wins seems to be working against him.
“Herbert might have the Matt Stafford career where they finally play defense and run the ball and he has more success as a player,” a head coach said. “He is super, super, super talented. I don’t even know if that is the right thing, to put him in an offense where they run the ball as much as they are about to run it, because he is so talented.”
The gap between Herbert’s obvious talent and his team’s on-field success is easily explained. Over the past three years, the Chargers rank 10th in offensive EPA, the part Herbert affects, while ranking 31st in combined EPA on defense and special teams, the part beyond his control, per TruMedia.
“I would put him below Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and Patrick Mahomes as far as what I see in a quarterback who can do anything and everything, not just in a scheme,” a defensive coach said. “I think he is a gamer. He can throw, he can run. I just think they have asked him to throw the ball too much.”
That figures to change with Jim Harbaugh as the Chargers’ coach.
“Harbaugh will challenge the competitive level, and Herbert will respond to that,” another defensive coach said. “The culture is what is going to help Herbert elevate. Then we will be able to see some things in moments where, OK, can this guy really do that? Because I’ve played him before when he did not do it in those situations, and we were not that good.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
Rodgers dropped into Tier 2 for the first time in 11 Tiers appearances after suffering a torn Achilles tendon last season.
Some thought this was ridiculous.
“Were the guys that did not put Rodgers in Tier 1 from the 29 teams whose offenses would be better with him instead of their current QBs?” one voter protested.
Only Mahomes, Burrow and Allen commanded more Tier 1 votes than the 23 for Rodgers. But with seven votes in Tier 3 and two in Tier 4, Rodgers slipped from the elite ranks.
“Maybe he falls off,” an offensive coach placing Rodgers in Tier 1 said. “I just know the last time I saw him play, he can carry it. I’m going off that.”
Not everyone thought Rodgers was playing so well when he finished in Green Bay.
“You go back and watch those first four plays before he got hurt, he did not look good,” a head coach placing Rodgers in Tier 3 said. “He looks old. If they can’t protect him and they can’t run the football, it’ll be just what you saw late stages in Green Bay. He became ineffective. I’m looking at what he is, not who he is.”
A voter whose team practiced against the Jets last summer said he thought Rodgers appeared “fragile” and might not last five games this season. The Achilles injury and Rodgers’ age (he turns 41 in December) created uncertainty.
No player in Tiers history has rated as high as Rodgers did this year while getting votes in Tier 4.
“The complaint in Green Bay was he did not have the receiver help he needed as he got older,” another voter said. “You cannot say that now with what they have around him on the Jets. If we get a Rodgers year where the Jets are back in playoffs and winning playoff games, that’s just what happens when you have a Tier 1 quarterback.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
Stroud surpassed Herbert (who was No. 10 in 2021) for the highest Tiers debut coming off a rookie season.
“This guy is a freaking baller,” an offensive assistant said. “When we watch the style of play, there’s a lot of Joe Burrow when Joe is healthy. The dude has balls.”
Stroud’s 1.82 average vote was the same as Tom Brady’s coming off what became Brady’s final season.
“I think he’s special,” a head coach said of Stroud. “He can make plays on rhythm, he can read coverage, he can get through progressions, he can manipulate coverages. He can create off-schedule a lot better.”
Too much, too soon?
“I’m sure some people gave him a 1, but he’s gotta prove it,” another head coach said. “The Baltimore (playoff) game when he had to throw, he couldn’t do it. He needs to prove he can do it in a big game against really good defenses (to become a 1).”
Voters gave credit to the Texans’ offensive system under coordinator Bobby Slowik. Some called Houston’s personnel underrated. They generally did not hold those things against Stroud.
“I knew it right away,” one voter said. “I was watching him play at Baltimore in his first game ever. In the first 15 plays, I was like, ’OK, they got a quarterback.’ I saw him flicking his wrist, moving in the pocket. You could just see it.”
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Tim Warner / Getty Images
Prescott matched his career best for average vote (2.10) and ranking (ninth) while making a fifth consecutive appearance in Tier 2.
“Dak can roll out of bed and throw for 450,” an offensive play caller said. “It’s unbelievable. It’s just those moments in the playoffs against the Niners or Packers where, if you want to be Tier 1, one of these times you’re going to have to put that team on your back and will your team to a win.”
Prescott’s five career games with 450-plus yards are tied with Drew Brees for second-most in NFL history (including playoffs) behind Ben Roethlisberger’s eight. Dan Marino, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are next with four apiece. Of those quarterbacks, Prescott is the only one never to reach a conference championship game.
“I have always given Dak a 2,” a defensive coordinator said. “When I did it this year, I gave him a 3. He proves year in and year out that he cannot get it done (in the postseason).”
At the other extreme, an exec from one of the Cowboys’ division rivals placed Prescott in Tier 1.
“Without him, they would be a very average or marginal team,” this exec said.
This is the fifth consecutive year Prescott ranked between ninth and 12th.
“Dak is probably the definition of a 2,” another defensive coordinator said. “There are some holes, he’s not perfect, but he’s about as steady of a 2 as you can be.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
It’s been a long road back for Goff, who reached Tier 2 for the first time since 2019, when he was coming off a Super Bowl with the Rams.
One defensive coordinator called Goff a better, younger version of Kirk Cousins: lacking in mobility, but proficient in identifying defenses before the snap, getting his team in the right plays, working through progressions and minimizing mistakes.
“It is set up so that it’s right in front of him, and he doesn’t have to make a lot of decisions on the field,” another defensive coordinator said. “They’ve got a good run game, they have a bunch of checkdowns to the tight end, they’ve got good players around him. He just has to go 1-2-3 and fire the ball. But he is another guy who, if it came down to a two-minute drive, I wouldn’t feel great about him in that situation.”
Goff’s 2.20 average and No. 10 ranking are both career bests in eight Tiers appearances.
“He got an offense he can run, and he’s getting rid of the ball,” a head coach said. “I don’t think he ever wins the big one, but he played well enough last year to go from a 3 to a 2. He has to have the weapons around him. He can’t do it by himself.”
One defensive coach pointed to Goff and Tua Tagovailoa as top-five picks who have produced at near-elite and borderline replacement levels at various points, based on what’s around them.
“Goff is somewhere between Tier 2 and Tier 3 for me,” an assistant GM said. “He has been really good, but I think he has a great system and good personnel. I’m not sure he carries the team. He is a traditional pocket guy that needs protection but makes all the throws. He lacks mobility, and I’m not sure he can carry the team exclusively.”
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Junfu Han / USA Today
Hurts slipped five spots after failing to sustain the momentum from his 2022 Super Bowl season.
“Hurts played so well the previous year, I am giving him a mulligan with some of the things they had going on offensively,” a coach who placed Hurts in Tier 2 said. “I do not think he was bad, necessarily.”
Some voters think Hurts will struggle to recapture the success he enjoyed when Shane Steichen was his offensive coordinator. One half-jokingly called him “a Tier 3 lock” without the tush push.
“If they can’t run the ball, Hurts is not effective,” a defensive coordinator said. “He can’t handle pure pass. When he got hurt and he became immobile and they had to throw the ball, he showed what he was. I think they might have paid a guy that they are going to have to have a really good team around to win games.”
The Eagles started 10-1 last season but finished 11-6.
“I still think he’s a 2,” another defensive coordinator said. “His makeup, unbelievable competitor. This is a dude who, Tua beats him out (in college at Alabama), he goes somewhere else (Oklahoma) and leads that team to (the College Football Playoff). He is going to come up short quarterback talent-wise in terms of accuracy and whatever, but all his other s— elevates him to a 2.”
While Saquon Barkley’s addition signaled an organizational commitment to the ground game, voters see new coordinator Kellen Moore as more pass-oriented in nature.
“The word is out there, if you run zero (blitz) against Hurts, or show zero and back everyone out, he will panic,” a defensive coach said. “That has to change. They lose Jason Kelce, who handled the protections, basically did everything, and you bring in a coordinator who likes to drop back. It will be interesting.”
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Kathryn Riiley / Getty Images
Purdy rose 13 spots from 2023, tying Jordan Love for the largest jump from last year. His 2.32 average vote is the best for a 49ers quarterback in Tiers history (Colin Kaepernick, 2.50 in 2014).
“When they have had to move the ball via dropback pass, that has been the difference between him and Jimmy (Garoppolo),” a head coach said. “Purdy has done it, and he’s done it in moments where he had to pull the ball down against Detroit and go get a first down with his legs. He has an innate feel. He has proven even when it’s not going well, he’s a quarter away from clicking in, and you’d better have a lead when he does.”
Rough games against Baltimore and Cleveland were exceptions.
“The system really helps, but he maximizes it,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’m not saying he is Kurt Warner, but he reminds me of that type of body. Not big, not a great arm, but he’s accurate, he knows when to get rid of the ball, he’s sharp, he’s a little bit better athlete than you think.”
Warner had even better talent around him while with the Rams.
“I honestly could debate calling Brock a 1,” an offensive play caller said. “He is really underrated. Kyle Shanahan deserves a ton of credit, but there still has to be somebody at the switch.”
The 16 voters placing Purdy in Tier 3 gave more credit to Shanahan and a strong supporting cast.
“I would slide him to the top of 3,” an assistant GM said. “I’m not sold that it is a universal skill set for varying systems. But for their system and their offense, they greatly capitalize on what his abilities are. That is a credit to the coaching staff.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Cousins’ steady climb continues with a career-best 2.38 average, the third consecutive season his average has improved.
“He has gotten way more courageous in the pocket,” a defensive coach said. “I have to give him that. He understands football, can throw the ball on time, can make all the throws. Can he carry the team and put them on his back by himself? I haven’t seen that. Maybe he is more like a Purdy type of guy.”
An offensive coach pushed back on the Purdy comp.
“Purdy has done it with a really good roster, and it’s really cool what he has done,” this coach said. “I’m not trying to take any credit from that kid, but Kirk has done it with different people. He has consistently kept his team in it over time. That is where I give him the edge.”
Cousins was arguably playing as well as ever before suffering a torn Achilles tendon and signing with the Falcons. Atlanta’s decision to draft Michael Penix Jr. in the first round raises questions about Cousins’ future.
“I think Cousins will not be the quarterback in Atlanta next year,” one voter said. “Unless Atlanta wins multiple games in the playoffs, the season is a failure for Kirk, unfortunately, based on the desire to see Michael Penix.”
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Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images
In 11 years of Tiers, only Mahomes, Jackson, Allen and Trevor Lawrence have made larger year-over-year gains than the 13-spot jump Love made this offseason.
“Of the guys I think that can ascend to 1, this is the guy that comes to mind,” a defensive coordinator said. “He’s got command of the offense, he can make every throw, he can make plays off-script, he can play on-script, he gets the ball out on time when everything is right and he is more athletic than you think. He’s got a playmaker’s mentality, and he started playing with a confidence that everybody can see.”
Love had started only one game before last season, making him a Tier 4 selection almost by default. The 19 starts he made last season, including two in the playoffs, impressed voters.
“He is a 2 going to a 1,” an offensive play caller said. “F—, he had a perfect goddamn passer rating in the playoff game (against Dallas). He can make all the throws, he’s composed. Very impressed.”
Love was the only player outside the top 11 to receive a Tier 1 vote.
“Just watching him, man, it’s hard to quantify into words,” said the lone voter who put Love in Tier 1. “I’m just going to tell you, watching him with my eyes, I’m like, holy s—, this guy is starting to figure it out in a big way.”
An assistant GM said there could be a rush to anoint Love based on the Packers’ history at the position, with Green Bay getting the benefit of the doubt in a “they’ve done it again” sense.
“Squeaking into the playoffs at 9-8 out of a bad division, I’m going to have to see a little more from him personally before elevating him,” a head coach who placed Love in Tier 3 said.
Another head coach warned against reading too much into Love’s impressive playoff showing against the Cowboys. This coach wants to see Love in more dropback situations.
“What makes me optimistic is how much better he got as the season progressed,” a former GM said. “They had a lot of rookies and young guys playing with him. He elevated the play of the guys around him.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
Tier 3
A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.
Tagovailoa’s stock has improved every year since his 2021 Tiers debut, putting him on the verge of Tier 2. But the gap between his new $53.1 million annual salary and his Tier 3 status is conspicuous.
“Miami has done an incredible job with Tua, giving him easy throws, giving him easy looks, catch-and-runs to 4.3 guys,” an offensive coach with AFC East experience said. “If you are sitting there in a pure-pass situation, if he has to sit there and read stuff and go through his progressions, I don’t have a lot of confidence in what that is going to look like.”
It didn’t look good against the Chiefs last season, but Tagovailoa’s production was sufficient for 24 voters to place him in Tier 2. That’s up from seven last year.
“I put him right in the middle of that Tier 2 stack,” a head coach said. “You have basically got a guy who is a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel. He is going to throw for 4,500 yards and a gazillion touchdowns, and statistically, it’s going to be hard to deny. But, kind of like with Kyle Shanahan’s quarterbacks, what are you going to do when it’s the (playoffs) against the Chiefs and it’s a two-minute drive and play-action and all that s— ain’t going to help you?”
Purdy passing Tagovailoa was notable in that both play in highly acclaimed schemes on teams with elite offensive weaponry.
“Tua does a great job anticipating,” another head coach said. “I don’t see him make it right when it’s not right. Purdy does. If there is a free hitter on the edge, Purdy can spin out, keep his eyes downfield. I don’t see Tua have that creativity or overall athleticism to do that.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Lawrence fell seven spots, the biggest drop for any player from 2023. The gap between his salary ranking (tied for first) and his Tiers ranking (15th) is the largest in that direction for any player in Tiers history.
Not everyone thinks Lawrence can bridge that gap.
“It’s a problem if ownership thinks you are a 1 or a 1.5, but really you are a 2 in a good year, and more of a 2.5, really,” one voter said.
Some voters drew parallels between Lawrence and Herbert as talented passers with understated personalities trying to overcome lesser organizations. Voters see both as players NFL teams would have no trouble selecting first in a draft. Is something missing?
“There is something that Burrow has, that Josh Allen has, that Mahomes has that borders on cocky, that I don’t feel with Herbert or Lawrence,” a defensive coach said. “I don’t know if it’s a confidence or a poise or a command. Maybe I’m misjudging that with just humility.”
Lawrence was trending positively entering last season. The Jaguars started 8-3 before injuries accumulated for Lawrence — first a shoulder, then a knee, then an ankle. Are voters reading too much into an easily explainable temporary dip?
“He’s mobile, strong-armed, good size, really talented,” an assistant GM said. “He has a couple holes in his game. I wonder if it was just one (down) year. I do like him, and if I had him, I’d be happy with him. Maybe he can trend to Tier 2.”
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Perry Knotts / Getty Images
The general feeling on Murray is that the Cardinals must play a specific way with him, and it remains to be seen whether that’s a good thing for Arizona after Murray returned from a torn ACL to make eight relatively understated starts last season.
“People would say, ‘Kyler Murray, Tier 2? How?’” a head coach placing Murray in Tier 2 said. “He goes in and beats the Eagles (35-31 in Week 17). This is a guy who once had a team (7-1). He does have limitations and/or a hole in his game that make it hard for him to be Tier 1 ever.”
Murray peaked in Tier 2 entering 2022, but his stock suffered after he signed a contract with a “homework” clause, and then was injured.
“His speed and elusiveness as an elite trait have waned a little, and if you make him play as a passer, he can’t do it,” an offensive coach said. “I don’t think he can see the windows, and I’m not sure he knows what he is looking at.”
Murray should have a better chance to change those perceptions as he returns to full health this season, with an offense that is not new to him and a potentially elite receiving talent in rookie first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr.
“If you just grade the flashes, he can make crazy plays and have a game, but I don’t think you can win consistently with him,” a defensive coordinator said.
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This is the fourth consecutive year Watson has fallen in Tiers voting and the lowest he has ranked in seven career appearances.
“He’s a 3, and it’s just a bad fit,” an exec said. “You have an RPO quarterback in a play-action offense. Not a good mix.”
The offense figures to evolve under new coordinator Ken Dorsey.
“He’s a better pocket passer than given credit for, but he’s always been slow going through his progressions, because he knew if it broke down, people could not catch him,” a defensive coach said. “A lot of stuff he did (with Houston), there was designed RPOs and movement plays for him. Maybe the processing is a tick slow. I can’t explain it. It just feels like there is something missing.”
Watson has started 12 games in two seasons with the Browns after he sat out 2021 in Houston. He’s coming off surgery on his throwing shoulder, and his elevated sack rate (9.8 percent with Cleveland) could work against sustained health.
No matter how Watson plays, or how frequently he plays, the Browns owe him $138 million over the next three seasons.
“I wonder if he loves it enough,” an offensive coach said. “He should be way better than this.”
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Nick Cammett / Diamond Images / Getty Images
Only Love and Purdy improved more from last year in average vote.
“Baker had a great year,” an exec said. “It’s hard for me to say he is more than a 3, but if he does it again, he is there. … He needs to show some consistency with it.”
Mayfield’s 10 votes in Tier 2 were more than double the number for any quarterback ranked lower, signaling a dropoff within Tier 3 behind him.
“He can sling it,” a defensive coordinator said. “If he is coached well and he feels good, he is a good system quarterback. He can get rolling and make some plays. He doesn’t scare me. With some of those 2’s, you are like, ’Oh, s—, I have to do something to stop them.’ I don’t feel that with Baker. He’s a guy where we can play our stuff and be fine.”
Voters used the word “moxie” more when discussing Mayfield than when discussing any other quarterback. They also thought Mayfield did a better job than some at getting the ball to his best players, notably Mike Evans last season.
“Physically, not the most imposing, but the guy has moxie,” another exec said. “He has football instincts. He has a good feel. I do think he is tough. He can take a hit. And the bottom line, he has good production. Some of it is the intangible profile: instincts, leadership, moxie, feel, can keep plays alive with his feet and movement skills within the pocket. Despite his lack of height, he is able to navigate that and get the ball to his playmakers.”
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Carr’s No. 20 ranking ties for his worst in 10 Tiers appearances. His 3.00 average is his worst since 2015, when Carr was entering his second season and on the upswing.
“He’s a 3 without (Jon) Gruden,” an offensive coach said. “Gruden could carry the mantel of all the leadership, where Carr could just snuggle up under the umbrella of Gruden. He is exposed now. He is the umbrella. It’s not comfortable. That takes away from his production.”
Carr’s statistics from last season aligned with Mayfield’s. Both led teams that finished 9-8. But voters see Carr as a declining player lacking the intangibles they think are strengths for Mayfield.
“We talk like Baker is some revitalization story,” a head coach said. “No, Baker has taken two teams to division titles. Derek Carr was in that same NFC South division with a better defense.”
The Saints ranked ninth and the Buccaneers were 18th last season in EPA per play on defense, per TruMedia.
“What holds (Carr) back is a lack of toughness in the pocket, and some of his decision making within the scheme,” another exec said.
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Smith plateaued this year after surging into Tier 3 following his breakout 2022 season. That was enough to finish one spot ahead of Russell Wilson, the quarterback he replaced in Seattle.
“He was a consistent player for two years in a row as a starter, and he played good ball,” an offensive coordinator who placed Smith in Tier 2 said. “They didn’t win because of their run game. They didn’t win because of defense. They won because the pass game was pretty consistent.”
Over the past two seasons, Seattle ranked 12th in EPA per pass play on offense and fourth-worst in EPA per play on defense.
“There are two guys in the 3 category who can be a little different,” a defensive coach said. “Trevor Lawrence is one, and then Justin Fields can win the game because of his feet. Everybody else, not so much. I don’t feel I’m going to lose a game because of Geno Smith.”
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Ryan Kang / Getty Images
This is the fourth consecutive year Wilson has fallen in Tiers since he entered 2020 as a unanimous Tier 1 selection.
“I would not be surprised if he has success in Pittsburgh because of the culture and system,” an assistant GM said.
Wilson will play under a potential future Hall of Fame head coach for the third time after starting with Pete Carroll and bouncing from Sean Payton to Mike Tomlin.
“To me, he would be a 5 if he wasn’t with Tomlin,” an offensive coordinator said. “Tomlin is a psychologist. He can push the right buttons. However good Russell Wilson can be, Mike Tomlin will figure it out.”
Wilson’s slide this offseason was only about one-third as large as the slide he suffered in 2023.
“I didn’t think that would go well with Sean (Payton),” the head coach said. “I feel bad for all the scrutiny he has faced, some of which he brings on himself. I just don’t think he sees the field well. I see a guy that played a certain way and was able to do it at a high level for a certain period of time, and I just don’t think he has the athleticism to play that way.”
Another head coach said he thought Wilson remained good enough to “get you in and out of games” — the very definition of a veteran player straddling the line between Tiers 3 and 4. The Steelers have yet to decide whether Wilson or Justin Fields will start Week 1, amplifying concerns around Wilson.
“When you look at the stats in Denver, Russ did not play bad,” a defensive coordinator said. “He just wasn’t a good fit for Sean. Let’s see what he does this year. He can throw the deep ball — boy, can he throw the deep ball.”
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Joe Sargent / Getty Images
Tier 4
A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.
Jones, 1-5 as a starter last season before suffering a torn ACL, lost about half the ground he gained among voters coming off his strong 2022 season.
“I’ve actually watched a lot of him,” a former head coach said. “I would give him a 3. He’s not bad. I don’t know how much he is going to run after knee and neck injuries, but it’s his ability to run that gives him some life. The throwing is just average.”
Another voter pointed to $23 million in injury guarantees for Jones in 2025 when suggesting the Giants could have incentive to play backup Drew Lock.
“The words ’Daniel Jones’ and ’injury guarantee’ are going to come up so much this year,” this voter said. “I don’t think the Giants are selling tickets around Daniel Jones. I do think Malik Nabers is going to be Offensive Rookie of the Year, at least among non-quarterbacks. Drew Lock is not a long-term starter, but I saw him do a really good job getting the ball to DK Metcalf, getting the ball to (Jaxon) Smith-Njigba.”
Would you rather have Jones on a $40 million annual salary or, say, Jacoby Brissett at one-fifth the cost? Those were the sorts of questions voters considered as Jones returns from a torn ACL in what could be a make-or-break season for him and for Giants leadership.
“You go out to the gun range, you shoot a gun, you feel real comfortable hitting the target,” a defensive coach said. “But when people are shooting back, he is not as accurate. When the s— gets moving and it’s live football, I think that is what gets him — missing throws, making more mistakes.”
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Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images
Fields is not consistent enough as a passer for voters to want him as their quarterback, but he’s dangerous enough as a runner for voters to fear facing him.
“Fields is hard to go against,” a defensive coordinator said. “He can win you games if you play complementary football and you’ve got the run game going, you’ve got play-actions, keepers. I kind of want to give him a 3, but he ain’t going to win you games dropping back.”
Voters agreed that the Bears were inconsistent in tailoring their offensive scheme to maximize what Fields does best.
“I can see people putting him as a 4, but if you have a good run game and he’s part of that run game, you can win,” an exec said. “I don’t want to play him because of the way he can run the football. He is a dimension that this league does not have. He is Jalen Hurts on nitroglycerin. Fast, strong, physical, tough. I would not give up on him.”
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Justin K. Aller / Getty Images
The massive gap between the 19th-ranked quarterback salary ($25 million per year for Seattle’s Smith) and the No. 20 salary ($12.5 million for Minshew) conveys how the league sees Minshew: as a veteran who ideally might not start all 17 games.
“Nobody wants him to be a starter, probably even his own team, but he won games with Indy last year,” an offensive coach said. “When you play him, the kid is competitive. He will keep you in the game — and them. It’s going to be a fight.”
Voters give Colts coach Shane Steichen a significant share of credit for the success Indy enjoyed with Minshew in the lineup last season.
“Gardner Minshew is a real gutsy player,” a defensive coordinator said. “Everybody on the team is going to love him. He is going to extend plays with his legs. He’s smart. He will be able to function in the offense. But he’s just limited.”
Minshew, 7-6 as a starter last season, prevailed over Aidan O’Connell in the battle to start for the Raiders. He has never started more than 13 games in a season.
“I want to see what it looks like when he plays all 17,” a head coach said.
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Chris Unger / Zuffa LLC / Getty Images
Voters who saw Richardson in person last season marveled at his talent.
“Everybody is scared to death of him in the NFL,” a head coach said.
“He’s the closest thing to Cam Newton since Cam, being a man that big who can run the ball and rip it,” an offensive coach said.
“Watching this dude in pregame from the 50 just arc and pace it, I said, ‘This guy can be a problem if it all comes together, because he has the athleticism,’” another offensive coach said.
“You are hard-pressed to tell me, if he keeps developing and stays healthy, that he is not going to be bottom of Tier 2 next year,” another head coach said.
Health is one key variable. Richardson’s ability to develop into a more consistently accurate passer is another.
“Shane Steichen built an offense with some really unique stuff, and we saw glimpses, but Richardson kept getting hurt,” a coach said. “I don’t know what changes this year. I don’t see a path for them to have a successful offense with this quarterback without putting him at continued risk for injury.”
That will be the Colts’ challenge.
“Richardson is erratic in the pocket and all that, but he is a big, big man who can make things happen,” a defensive coach said. “He’s a 3 that can elevate for sure. Shane understands how to space things out for him to make the targets easier and how to get him involved in the run game.”
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Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images
Voters see Levis as a strong-armed prospect with questionable instincts for the position.
“I do think there was good tape on him last year,” an exec said. “He showed confidence, he had a nice energy about him on the field, he had a toughness about him. He looked like he can be a guy. He can get wound up a little tight, so I want to see how he handles the stress of expectations.”
Levis started nine games last season and took 28 sacks behind a weak offensive line.
“It’s hard to judge him on last year because their line was so bad,” a defensive coordinator said. “I’ll give him a 4, but if I’m being honest, I think next year is maybe a 3 and that’s it. I don’t see the upside.”
The Titans selected Levis 33rd in the 2023 draft, making him the fourth quarterback in his class.
“He makes some impressive throws,” an offensive coordinator said. “I always wonder if he sees it and can react fast enough. Is his processing ability going to always be a little slow? That’s all, just some awareness. I don’t know if he knows when he’s hot and there are blitzers, that sort of thing.”
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Cooper Neill / Getty Images
Young is the seventh first-round quarterback to debut in Tiers after starting at least 14 games as a rookie. His average tier vote (3.82) was the lowest of the seven behind Stroud (1.82), Herbert (2.14), Murray (2.68), Carson Wentz (2.92), Mac Jones (3.06) and Lawrence (3.40).
“I don’t know of a human being that has been put in a worse situation as a quarterback ever, so I’m just giving him a little benefit of the doubt,” an offensive coach said.
Nine voters did place Young in Tier 3, but Tier 4 proved to be a catch-all category for him most of the time, either because voters did not have enough information to make an evaluation, or because what voters saw gave them pause.
“They threw him to the wolves,” a head coach said.
Young’s small stature was the No. 1 concern.
“From an intelligence standpoint, from an arm strength standpoint, I think he can do all those things,” a defensive coordinator said, “but I think the size is a major detriment. He still has escapability, but he is a smaller-framed guy who will struggle in the pocket and, at some point, the guy is going to get hurt.”
How would Stroud have fared in Carolina if the first and second picks in the 2023 draft had been reversed?
“If you give (Young) a 4, it’s partly because that place was so messed up,” another voter said. “But I think Frank Reich is a good offensive coach. Is Dave Canales really going to be this revolutionary change on offense? He was good with Baker, I get it, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we have this conversation two years from now and Bryce Young is a 3.”
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David Jensen / Icon Sportswire / Getty Images
One season with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco gave Darnold a slight boost with some voters. He commanded 12 votes in Tier 3, twice as many as in 2022, his most recent Tiers appearance.
“He played before he was ready in New York, and then Carolina was a rough deal,” a head coach said. “He got himself back on course with the 49ers. That was healthy for him.”
The competition between Darnold and J.J. McCarthy ended abruptly in the preseason after McCarthy’s season-ending knee injury.
“I don’t want to be one of those guys who holds onto his draft grade, but I would not be surprised if he holds off J.J. McCarthy for a while,” the head coach said before McCarthy’s injury. “(Darnold) has the ability to play to a 2.”
All would agree that the infrastructure in Minnesota is better for Darnold than the situations with the Jets and Panthers were for him.
“Sometimes I think he’s a 3 in the right situation,” an exec said. “It would not surprise me if he has a decent year with Kevin (O’Connell). I’m teetering between 3 and 5. I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s a 3 this year.”
Darnold got as many votes in Tier 5 as he got in Tier 3, so it’s a stretch to say these optimistic takes were representative of the group. He has never started more than 13 games in a season.
“He has been with multiple teams, and we are still waiting for the guy,” a defensive coordinator said. “He’s just jittery, man.”
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Stephen Maturen / Getty Images
When Brissett was in Cleveland (2022), the Browns averaged more EPA per play and per pass play in his 11 starts than they have averaged with any other quarterback in the lineup since Kevin Stefanski became coach in 2020.
Of course, the 2024 Patriots are not as talented as the Browns.
“Jacoby is a 3.5 who can win some games for you in the right system,” a head coach said. “He is one of the few backup quarterbacks that could start in this league. It worked in Cleveland because he’s a play-action thrower and that system fits him.”
Brissett’s coordinator in Cleveland, Alex Van Pelt, is his coordinator in New England.
“He’s a solid 4, a great backup buffer guy until you get your starter ready,” a defensive coordinator said.
A former GM predicted rookie Drake Maye would be in the lineup for the Patriots around Week 5 or 6.
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Jaiden Tripi / Getty Images
About this story: Edited by David DeChant. Development by Marc Mazzoni. Design by Dan Goldfarb and John Bradford. Design direction by Skye Gould, Ray Orr and Amy Cavenaile. Photos by Getty Images and USA Today.
The story of the greatest players in NFL history. In 100 riveting profiles, top football writers justify their selections and uncover the history of the NFL in the process.
The story of the greatest players in NFL history.
