NFL Week 1 Power Rankings: Who can challenge the Chiefs for the throne?

The NFL season is mere days away, and the Power Rankings are here to check in on the vibes of all 32 teams after training camp.

For now, at least, this list will look familiar. Patrick Mahomes rules over the kingdom with Dan Campbell and C.J. Stroud and Kyle Shanahan and maybe a few more folks thinking they can take his crown. We’re skeptical, but that’s what makes this so fun. For now, this is how we think they stack up.

Preseason vibes: Swiftian

Mahomes is throwing behind-the-back passes in preseason games, Kansas City locked up its star center and Xavier Worthy is bringing the afterburners back to the offense. The defending champs are starting the season the way they ended the last one — on a high note. Even the off-field momentum is peaking. Tight end and Taylor Swift boyfriend Travis Kelce just signed a mega podcast deal with his brother Jason. A Week 1 visit from the Ravens will provide a fun showcase, but even a loss wouldn’t kill the mood. Everything about this team is pointed toward January and February.

GET USED TO IT 🔥

Mahomes scrambles to find Xavier Worthy DEEP for the touchdown pic.twitter.com/qqEQrwSuyO

— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) July 21, 2024

Preseason vibes: Wired

These guys were in a good mood when they were 1-6 in 2022. Now, they have won 21 of their last 29 games, and wide receiver Jameson Williams looks like he’s taken a step forward in practice. Add Williams’ dynamic breakaway speed to an offense that finished third in the league in yards per play last year (5.9), and Campbell might not even need that 12th daily cup of coffee.

Preseason vibes: Steady

Entering John Harbaugh’s 17th season as the Ravens’ head coach, Baltimore is doing mostly what it has done the last 16 seasons, plugging along. A new defensive coordinator and a rebuilt offensive line raise questions, but the Ravens get the benefit of the doubt for now because of Harbaugh, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and how scary running back Derrick Henry still is. The preseason death of offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris cast a pall over preparations last month.

Preseason vibes: Too good?

The hype in Houston is so high the Texans are entering a dangerous area where nothing short of a Super Bowl appearance will meet expectations, and it’s not just media-driven. Stroud is already No. 8 in Mike Sando’s Quarterback Tiers. BetMGM has the Texans listed as the betting favorite in the AFC South and eighth in Super Bowl championship odds. If Stefon Diggs returns to form, maybe Houston can pay off all this promise.

Preseason vibes: “Not great, Bob”

There were a couple of Mad Men in the Bay Area this season. (I’m sorry, honestly.) Neither Brandon Aiyuk, No. 2 in the NFL in EPA per target last year (.71), nor Trent Williams, the best offensive tackle in the game, took a training camp practice snap because of contract consternation. Aiyuk finally got his deal, but Williams remains AWOL on game week. Plus do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey hasn’t practiced since early August after straining his calf. The reigning offensive player of the year doesn’t need the practice reps, but he does need to be healthy, and calf strains are ominous.

Preseason vibes: Lurking

The Packers gave 25-year-old quarterback Jordan Love a four-year, $220 million contract this offseason. They are stacked with young offensive skill players around him, and they have a new defensive coordinator in former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley. If Hafley can boost a defense that was 23rd in the league in EPA per snap last season, the Packers could go deep into the playoffs. The potential pitfall? The NFC North is daunting.

Preseason vibes: One-third fixed

Despite owner/general manager/team spokesman Jerry Jones’ pronouncement that the Cowboys are “all in,” Dallas is 28th in the NFL in cash spending, according to Over the Cap, even after giving CeeDee Lamb the second-largest wide receiver deal in history last week (four years, $100 million guaranteed). The division rival Eagles still are spending $100 million more than Dallas. Who knows, though? If Jones pays quarterback Dak Prescott and linebacker Micah Parsons, maybe they’ll catch up sometime. Maybe they’ll even win a playoff game sometime, too.

Preseason vibes: Clyde Drexler’s Trail Blazers

Buffalo has arguably the second-best player in the NFL in quarterback Josh Allen. The Bills have won double-digit games in five straight seasons, but they keep banging their head on the Patrick Mahomes Ceiling (Mahomes is Michael Jordan in our analogy here, if that wasn’t clear). Buffalo has lost five playoff games by an average of 8.6 points in the last five years. Three of those came against the Chiefs and two were by less than a touchdown. The Bills’ window may be closing because of salary-cap cuts (and another serious Matt Milano injury), but it’s still open because of Allen.

Preseason vibes: Worrisome

The Athletic’s win projections have the Bengals at 10.2 victories this season, the second-highest total in the AFC. So why is Cincinnati ninth on this list? Some tangible reasons: Joe Burrow’s wrist injury is a concern, and star receiver Ja’Marr Chase is in and out of practice because of a contract dispute. And a squishier reason: they’ve just kind of fallen off the radar. That could change quickly, though. The Bengals play New England, Washington and Carolina this month, and they have the fifth-easiest schedule in the league this season.

Preseason vibes: Chilly

An August article by ESPN described a “prolonged strain” between coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts, and nobody in Philadelphia has really pushed back on that. Maybe adding wide receiver Jahan Dotson via a trade with the Commanders is the Eagles’ way of putting a smile on Hurts’ face. Adding the 2022 first-round pick to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith gives Philadelphia a claim to the NFL’s best wide receiving corps. Will that boost Hurts’ career 91.1 passer rating, which ranks 23rd in the league since he entered in 2020?

Preseason vibes: Depends on who you ask

The Browns defense created 17.4 expected points per 100 snaps last season, according to TruMedia, the best number in the NFL in the last three seasons, and by a pretty good margin. Cleveland thinks it will be better in coordinator Jim Schwartz’s second season. Offensively, though, the Browns have questions at offensive tackle, running back Nick Chubb is starting the season on the physically unable to perform list (and thus will miss at least the first four games) because of last year’s devastating knee injury, and Deshaun Watson continues to slide down The Athletic’s Quarterback Tiers, landing in 18th place this year.

Preseason vibes: Weird

After an offseason of optimism, the Rams traded linebacker Ernest Jones IV, an unsung hero of their Super Bowl LVI win and a purported team leader, to the Titans for a fifth-round pick out of the blue last week. Another piece of new business: Starting left tackle Alaric Jackson has been suspended two games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. In old business: Matthew Stafford is still old (36), and he’s taken a beating in his 214-game career.

Preseason vibes: Testy

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Garrett Wilson are bickering (or at the very least have bickered) between practice snaps. Robert Saleh is on every “coaches on the hot seat” list. Edge rusher Haason Reddick is … somewhere, and that somewhere isn’t the Jets facility. This could all still work in New York, especially because this defense gives the Jets a solid floor, or this team could fill the back pages of the tabloids with chaos all fall long. You know what we’re rooting for.

Preseason vibes: Contrarian

Miami coach Mike McDaniel may be the only non-family member who believes in Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa so much, but that was enough to get Tagovailoa a four-year contract extension that guarantees him $167.2 million. And why not? Their two years together have produced 6.3 yards per play. No NFL team has done better than that in the same period, according to TruMedia. The problem: The Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game and have won only four combined games post-Dec. 1 in those two seasons.

Preseason vibes: Impatient

Team owner Arthur Blank is backing up his belief in the readiness of his franchise to compete with his checkbook. After hiring Raheem Morris as head coach and adding Kirk Cousins in the offseason, the Falcons added proven defenders Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons during training camp. Between additions and contract extensions, they have handed out more than $220 million in guaranteed money since the end of last season. In sum, there’s a lot of pressure on Morris to hit the ground running. Morris is confident, too. So confident that he skipped a day of preseason practice to take his team to a water park in August.

Endless Summer Vacation 😎 pic.twitter.com/kEi8UW9bii

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) August 20, 2024

Preseason vibes: Giddy

Things seem almost too good in Chicago. People expect rookie quarterback Caleb Williams to set the franchise record for single-season passing yards. Not rookie record but all-time record. Right now, that belongs to Erik Kramer, who passed for 3,838 yards in 1995. (For now, we’re ignoring the fact that Williams completed less than 50 percent of his passes in a brief preseason appearance.) Add that to a defense that led the NFL in points allowed (15.5 per game) from Week 12 on last season, and the Bears have reason to smile.

Preseason vibes: Gritty

Several members of his team were stuck in an elevator during a preseason trip to Dallas, and, of course, Jim Harbaugh turned it into an after-school special about overcoming adversity. “That’s a shared experience,” Harbaugh said. “I mean, brought them closer together. I just missed it, you know, being on that elevator, and it’s like, I wish I could have been there with those guys.” We can chuckle at Harbaugh all season long (and we will), but the Chargers might be the story of the early NFL season. They play the Raiders, Panthers, Steelers, Broncos, Cardinals and Saints in six of their first seven games.

Preseason vibes: Wishful thinking

Lions quarterback Jared Goff threw 605 passes last season. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has thrown 768 passes … since middle school. The hype around Richardson may be warranted, but he’s going to need help this season. That means the Colts need Jonathan Taylor to be Jonathan Taylor again. Taylor hasn’t played a full season since his 1,811-yard output in 2021. He’s back at full health now and motivated to take the attention off Richardson.

Preseason vibes: A mystery

New head coach Mike Macdonald comes from a place that believes in running the ball. No team in the NFL had more designed run plays in the last five years than the Ravens (2,365). The Seahawks were 25th in designed runs in that time (1,865), including 29th in the league last season. Macdonald hired Ryan Grubb from the University of Washington as his offensive coordinator, suggesting he’s planning to stick with a pass-heavy approach, but running back Kenneth Walker might have something to say about it.

Preseason vibes: Not steely

The Steelers are acting like the Browns this preseason. I’m sorry, Pittsburgh fans, I know that hurts. The Steelers have an old quarterback cast off by another team (Russell Wilson) and a young quarterback cast off by another team (Justin Fields). They held a quarterback competition in name at least, and then declared Wilson the starter while leaving the door open for Fields to get playing time. It all feels a little squishy for the Steelers, who have prided themselves on being resolute throughout their history.

🔥New Scoop City🔥
It was a true QB competition in Pittsburgh whether you believe it or not. New OC Arthur Smith explains why Wilson won, those Justin Fields packages, plus Browns David Njoku stops by for an uncanny chat
📺 https://t.co/1r02ne7Q6j
🎧 pic.twitter.com/8TrlBmPhpQ

— Dianna Russini (@DMRussini) August 30, 2024

Preseason vibes: Meh

Coach Doug Pederson has had one double-digit-win season in his seven-year career. Granted, it was a doozy as his Eagles went 13-3 in the 2017 regular season and then won the Super Bowl. There have been only two playoff wins since then, though. On the flip side, Pederson has only had one losing season since his first year as a head coach. There have been four nine-win seasons in that time period, and this Jaguars team looks about right to post another one and sweat out a playoff spot right down to the wire.

Preseason vibes: Anonymous

The Bucs have the right to be a little miffed. What other team on a three-year run of division titles (and a Super Bowl title the season before that) has gotten so little attention? Sure, that division is the NFC South, but still. Tampa Bay has brought most of the band back to go for the four-peat.

Preseason vibes: Depressing deja vu

J.J. McCarthy, meet Kirk Cousins, meet Sam Bradford, meet Teddy Bridgewater. Since 2016, the Vikings have had the worst quarterback injury luck in the league. McCarthy, the 10th pick in April’s draft, suffered a season-ending meniscus injury in the preseason opener. Now, Minnesota turns to Sam Darnold, the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft who has a 21-35 career record as a starter.

Preseason vibes: Maybe?

The Titans, at least, think they can be good. They signaled that by making a training camp trade for linebacker Ernest Jones. If Brian Callahan was the right coaching hire, and if second-year quarterback Will Levis is the real deal, and if Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley return to peak form, Tennessee might be a surprise playoff team. That’s a lot of ifs, though.

Preseason vibes: Lucky

Despite how cranky coach Dennis Allen seems to be during training camp, the Saints may have pulled a “Get out of (salary-cap) jail free” card when they drafted quarterback Spencer Rattler in the fifth round in April. Rattler has had an impressive preseason, and there’s a chance he could make Derek Carr expendable as early as next season. New Orleans would have to eat $50 million in dead cap money if it cut Carr after this season, but having a rookie quarterback on a cheap contract from 2025 to 2027 could make up for a lot of financial mismanagement.

Preseason vibes: Grasping

There’s no way the Raiders hoped Gardner Minshew would win the starting quarterback job when they signed him to a two-year, $25 million free-agency deal this offseason, and his play this preseason would hardly suggest he won it. He was simply the better of two not-great options. That’s not a good sign for Aidan O’Connell, the second-year quarterback who at least could have given Las Vegas some hope for the future. Minshew, who is 15-22 as a starter for three teams, is simply a bridge starter. The question is where is this bridge going?

Preseason vibes: Quiet

James Conner is coming off the first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career. Trey McBride might have the highest talent-to-name recognition ratio among tight ends in the league. If Marvin Harrison Jr., the rookie wide receiver taken fourth in April, is the real deal, Arizona could have one of the league’s more dynamic offenses one year after finishing 24th in scoring in the league (19.4 points per game). And yet, we haven’t heard much from the Cardinals this preseason.

Preseason vibes: Scary

For their new quarterback at least. The Commanders selected Jayden Daniels with the second pick of April’s draft. Now, they have to keep him healthy. Washington gave up 65 sacks last season, second most in the league, and it still has major questions up front (although new center Tyler Biadasz should help). Fantasy football managers are salivating about Daniels’ running ability combined with the ineffectiveness of Washington’s offensive line because the rookie is going to get some yards on the ground this season just running for his life.

Preseason vibes: Better

Better is good, right? Bryce Young looked good in a preseason Week 3 drive (6-for-8 for 70 yards and a touchdown). First-year head coach Dave Canales’ “optimist bully” approach seems to be working with the team that has spent most of the last 12 months at the No. 32 spot in these rankings. If Canales can get Young, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, to just be average this season, the Panthers might be able to stay in the 20s for a while.

Preseason vibes: Confident

Should they be? Who knows? It doesn’t look great from the outside, but second-year Broncos coach Sean Payton is a big believer in Sean Payton. He’s also a big fan of rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Almost everyone in the league thought the Broncos overdrafted Nix at No. 12, but Payton has raved about him all preseason. If Payton can inject some of his self-belief into Nix, he might prove himself right and everyone else wrong. Or, this team could be stuck down here in the 30s all season long.

Preseason vibes: Feisty at least

The Giants were fined $200,000 for a series of fights during joint practices with the Lions. Detroit was fined, too. The difference is that might be the most competitive the Giants are this season. The Athletic’s win projections have New York at 6.7, the fourth-lowest total in the league. Rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who was right in the middle of the practice fights, at least looks like the real deal, so he’ll make New York interesting.

Preseason vibes: Overmatched

The award for Worst Look of the Preseason goes to first-year Patriots coach Jerod Mayo, who said New England had a true quarterback competition and that rookie Drake Maye had “outplayed” veteran Jacoby Brissett and then named Brissett the starter. The Patriots’ organizational thinking seems to be that the rest of the offense is too bad to put the valuable Maye in harm’s way. That’s going to make Mayo’s pregame pep talks tough this season. Good luck, Jacoby.

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photo: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)