NFL Week 11 roundtable: Harbaugh’s Chargers, Mahomes and Allen meet again, Steelers-Ravens
The Philadelphia Eagles started Week 11 already full of high stakes, outlasting the Washington Commanders on Thursday night to take control of the NFC East.
Now comes another date between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, a pair that could be considered division rivals if we didn’t know any better. They are set to play for the eighth time since 2020, three of which are in the postseason. Maybe a fourth in their future.
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers should take a back seat to any rivalry in the NFL this week and never. Once again, the game means something with first place in the AFC North on the line and an annoying Steelers three-game winning streak that Lamar Jackson and company are eager to end.
Three of our NFL writers, Jeff Howe, Zak Keefer and Mike Sando, discuss what’s ahead.
Once again, the Steelers and Ravens meet in a high-stakes game. What has been most impressive about Russell Wilson since taking over the starting role in Pittsburgh? Should Lamar Jackson lose the MVP award at this point or is there anyone else seriously challenging him?
How: The Steelers have been smart to highlight Wilson’s strengths, and they continue to lean on the ground game. Wilson has gotten into trouble in recent years for being too lax in his offense, so give Arthur Smith credit for staying disciplined in his approach. Jackson has a significant lead in the MVP race, and I don’t see him giving it up as long as the Ravens keep winning. Otherwise, Josh Allen and Jared Goff could join the discussion again.
Beetle: Credit Mike Tomlin, who pulled a game-winning quarterback in Justin Fields — the Steelers were 4-2 while he started — and made his team better by replacing him with Wilson. This Steelers team reminds me a bit of the old Seattle Seahawks squads: great defense, well-run play, smart quarterback who can take over the top of the defense at times. Since Week 7, Wilson ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and seventh in passer rating. As good as the rest of this selection is, that’s more than enough. Right now, Jackson is leading the MVP conversation, but a lot will be decided as the division titles and playoff seeds shake out. Still, it’s hard to argue with his consistent excellence: As of 2024, Jackson has the highest 10-week passer rating (123.2) of the past 25 years.
Sando: I liked how Wilson fit in with the Steelers without the fuss that came with the Russell Wilson Show late in his tenure in Seattle and during his time with the Denver Broncos. We don’t hear about his mansions or interactions with celebrities or other trappings of stardom.
Jackson is the runaway MVP favorite not only because of his league-leading production, but also because of the context of that production. He’s overcoming particularly poor play from the Ravens’ defensive/special teams, winning 70 percent of his starts. As detailed in my Thursday column, he is 3-1 in games where other regular starters have a 5-45 record this season (the games where the defense/special teams finish with minus-10 combined EPA or worse). It’s remarkable.
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes also meet again. Bills-Chiefs always gives us a thriller. What or who makes the difference this time?
How: If Allen isn’t the difference maker, I’m not sure we’ll change anything in a few months in the playoffs. The Chiefs defense has done more than its share to carry the offense, but this is where Allen needs to assert himself. He has to be the most dominant player in the game. But even with that kind of performance, Allen has won three straight regular-season matchups with the Chiefs, but is 0-3 against them in the playoffs. There is still work to be done regardless of the outcome this weekend.
Beetle: The Bills are hurting at wide receiver, but the run game – plus the brilliance of Josh Allen – has taken them to 8-2, the second-best record in the conference behind you-know-what. Buffalo is third in scoring despite Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman missing time, and tight end Dalton Kincaid is out Sunday. But I love how coordinator Joe Brady has leaned on the run game this season. James Cook was excellent, and Ray Davis was a spark off the bench. A win for Buffalo on Sunday could pay for this down the road: The Bills’ best chance to (finally) get past the Chiefs in the playoffs has to come in Orchard Park. And I don’t think Kansas City, even at 9-0, has the top seed and home field advantage yet. This team could easily lose a few.
Sando: I’m picking a 23-21 Bills win on a late field goal, figuring the odds will catch up with Kansas City at some point after so many close games. The Bills have won the last three regular season games between the teams. They never lost the turnover battle against the Chiefs in seven meetings between the teams when Allen was in the lineup. If that trend continues, I’ll take Buffalo in a close game.
The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers play on Sunday evening. Where is Jim Harbaugh in your Coach of the Year race? Why do the Bengals keep finishing on the wrong side of close games this year?
How: Dan Campbell should be in the lead because the Detroit Lions have been the best team and continue to play in the image of their coach. Mike Tomlin may not be far behind. But if voters trust the coach who has exceeded expectations the most, Dan Quinn and Jonathan Gannon will get plenty of recognition. Harbaugh has predictably made his mark on the Chargers, doing a good job with their physicality, discipline and quarterback. They won’t be a welcome sight if they make the playoffs.
Beetle: Harbaugh has quietly done a fantastic job, especially after the Chargers rebuilt their talent at outside quarterback Justin Herbert in the spring. But I’m with Jeff. No one has done a better job this season than Dan Campbell, who coaches the most complete team in football. Quinn, Tomlin and Gannon also deserve consideration, as does Minnesota’s Kevin O’Connell. For the Bengals, this franchise needs to reevaluate what they are trying to do on defense. Because that unit has dropped off significantly from the team’s run to the Super Bowl following the 2021 season. If Cincinnati wants to help Joe Burrow, start there. Oh, and also sign Ja’Marr Chase.
What if every single-possession NFL game had the opposite outcome? pic.twitter.com/wpj5Yk3bNR
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) November 13, 2024
Sando: I’m not sure about this, but research leads me to believe that the Bengals have lost so many close games because they are not only bad on defense, but also place too much priority on passing the ball, optimizing the offensive play and saving time for their attack. at the expense of controlling games/clock later. That seemed to be the case against Baltimore. It’s something I explored when looking at how Burrow has performed in the clutch.
The Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay Packers) and Las Vegas Raiders (at Miami Dolphins) have made changes to their offensive staffs. Do you expect a real difference or is the problem deeper within these teams?
How: The Raiders are still without a quarterback, so I don’t expect a substantial turnaround there. The Bears just need to let Caleb Williams play within the offense and not get bogged down by making too many decisions, which has led to slower play, too much time in the pocket and a league-high sack rate. A new play caller could provide the boost Williams needs, but the Bears’ problems extend beyond their rookie QB.
Beetle: I’m excited to see what Thomas Brown does leading the Bears offense. Williams is undeniably talented and they have weapons, but Chicago’s scheme has been so inept this season that it feels like the rookie hasn’t had a chance to establish himself. For Brown, that’s job No. 1 – find some easy completions for Williams – just like Kliff Kingsbury does for Jayden Daniels in Washington – and let him flex his talents when he needs to. The playoffs are an afterthought: The rest of this season in Chicago should be about giving Williams the best chance to improve heading into Year 2. As for the Raiders, they’re in quarterback purgatory. It’s time to swing high in the draft and find the next one. Otherwise the cycle will keep repeating itself.
Sando: The problems go much deeper than the coordinators, but the changes can help. The combination of Scott Turner and his father, Norv, provides a clear upgrade in experience and pedigree. In Chicago it is clear that Shane Waldron was not getting through to the players. Perhaps players will respond favorably to Brown taking control. However, I don’t know if the trajectory will rise beyond an initial bump.
Who has disappointed more this season? The Houston Texans or the Dallas Cowboys?
How: I wouldn’t call the Texans a disappointment. They are dealing with injuries at receiver and the offensive line is becoming exposed. There also needs to be an adjustment period where a young team is expected to find success, instead of sneaking up on everyone like the Texans did last year. Their opponents are preparing for the Texans as a benchmark, and that comes with a learning curve. While a regression was predictable, the Cowboys are closer to securing the No. 1 pick than the final wild card spot. They are among the biggest disappointments in the league along with the New York Jets.
Beetle: The Texans are such an interesting team this season. Forty-five minutes into Sunday night’s game, they were looking at 7-3 and a signature win over the best team in football, the Lions. Then Detroit made its comeback. Something isn’t right in Houston: the offensive line has been wildly inconsistent, and the passing game is feeling the effects of Nico Collins being out for the past month, and Stefon Diggs has now been out for a year. The good news for Houston: It’s in one of the worst divisions in football and the AFC South is still eminently winnable, even with a mediocre record. The answer, though, is Dallas: How a team with 12 wins each of the past three seasons has fallen so far and so quickly is staggering.
Sando: The Cowboys are much more disappointing, except for the millions of professional Cowboys haters out there. Dallas has failed at virtually every turn and is ranked 13th in the NFC and is on pace to win five to six games, well below the Cowboys’ preseason Vegas win total (10), with no hope of a play- off-push now Dak Prescott is hurt. The Texans lead their division and are 6-4 on their way to surpassing their preseason win total of 9.5.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson and Cole Holcomb: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
