NFL Week 12 takeaways: Is the Commanders offense collapsing? Are the 49ers out of time?
Week 12’s Sunday games brought pretty much every ending you could think of: an onside kick recovery leading to overtime in Chicago, a missed chip-shot field goal from one of the NFL’s best kickers costing the Texans, a Carolina Panthers near-upset over the defending champs and another miracle touchdown in Washington — but it goes for naught after a missed extra point.
NO GOOD.
📺: #DALvsWAS on FOX
📱: pic.twitter.com/FDg7wGy8KF— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2024
The finishes were exciting, but the games as a whole carried more meaning. The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.
Missed PAT aside, Washington needed another miracle touchdown just to hang around in an eventual loss to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys on Sunday. What do you make of the Commanders, specifically on offense, after another underwhelming performance?
Nguyen: This offense is far too predictable and defenses are catching up. They haven’t been as willing to run Jayden Daniels after his rib injury, and so much of this system is predicated on the QB options and scrambles — they’re handicapped without it. The short passes and screens haven’t been as effective either. Their unwillingness to throw the ball downfield is maddening to watch. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury was dismissive when asked about the trend of his offenses falling off a cliff in the second half of seasons during his time in Arizona, but it looks like it’s happening again. Kyler Murray took a beating when Kingsbury was his head coach, and the same scenario is playing out with Daniels. When asked about the regression last week, Kingsbury said he didn’t plan on changing his offense, but this system desperately needs to evolve. This Cowboys defense is terrible. The Commanders’ one sustained drive, late in the game, on which Daniels threw the ball downfield was their best.
2019-2022 Cardinals
Weeks 1-8
Pts per drive: 2.29 (6th)
EPA per play: 0.04(10th)Weeks 8-17
Pts per drive: 1.91 (20th)
EPA per play: -0.05 (24th)— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) November 21, 2024
Pompei: No question the offense isn’t clicking like it was early, and there is room for improvement. Perhaps defenses have caught on. But the Commanders offense played well enough on Sunday; 26 points wins most games. The team was undercut by defensive issues and special teams problems — especially special teams problems. Has a team ever won a game in which it gave up two kickoff return touchdowns and missed a field goal and two extra-point attempts? The Commanders probably weren’t as good as they appeared early in the season, but they’re probably not as bad as some of their critics will say they are today.
Jones: Kingsbury is under a lot of scrutiny because of the way Washington’s offense appears to be taking a nose dive — just like his Cardinals offenses did when he was head coach in Arizona. However, Washington’s biggest problem on Sunday involved poor effort on both sides of the ball. Washington received multiple opportunities in the first half thanks to strong special teams play, but there appeared to be no sense of urgency and no rhythm or flow from the Commanders’ offensive players. The same listless play continued in the second half, and Washington’s defense had miscues that also were inexcusable against a weak opponent like the Cowboys. The Commanders were lucky that Dallas is bad enough that they had a chance late. They still couldn’t capitalize, due to kicking woes (a missed PAT at 28-27) and kickoff coverage gaffes (KaVontae Turpin’s 99-yard kickoff return after the Commanders had cut the lead to three with three minutes left, and Dallas returned an onside kick attempt for another touchdown). Under Dan Quinn, Washington has displayed much greater effort and execution than the team’s long-suffering fans are accustomed to. However, on Sunday, this team appeared to revert to the old days and repeatedly shot itself in the foot with sloppy play, poor attention to detail and no sense of urgency. Yes, Washington’s offense has issues that Kingsbury must figure out. But the problems on Sunday were widespread and Quinn has to figure out how to get his team back on track after three straight losses.
Even if they get healthy, is it too late for the 49ers to re-emerge as a postseason threat to the Lions and the rest of the NFC?
Jones: At this point, the if is looking pretty bleak. For much of the year, I’ve been thinking they just needed to get healthy by the midway point, and then they could surge to the top of the NFC West standings and carry that momentum into the playoffs. But every week they get hit with another injury, or injuries. There isn’t going to be a return to full health for the 49ers, I don’t think. We’ve seen San Francisco reach the NFC Championship Game in four of the last five seasons, but that run appears likely to end. It’s still a tight race in the NFC West. But at 5-6, the 49ers are falling behind, and even if they did get healthy, it will take a bit for their players to rekindle the chemistry they have had, and there’s just not enough time for that either in the final month of the season or in the postseason if they make it there.
Nguyen: Amazingly, the 49ers are still only one game back in the NFC West. The talent is there but this isn’t the juggernaut that we’re used to seeing. They don’t have a lot of depth; they need their stars on the field to win. If all their stars are healthy and can stay healthy, I think they’ll squeak into the playoffs, but that’s a big if. Christian McCaffrey has not looked explosive since coming back — can he get that explosion back? They also need Ricky Pearsall to step up as a man-beater. George Kittle can’t be their only answer against man coverage. The margins are small for this team but you can’t count this group out with the division still within striking distance. The 49ers have battled back before.
Pompei: Time is growing short for the 49ers to become the type of team they could have been. A strong finish to the regular season can’t be ruled out, as they could hit their stride as injured players return to the lineup. But there are too many leaks in the wall to plug, and they will be in a dogfight to make the postseason. They still have a chance, maybe a decent one, of winning the NFC West — no team is running away with it. To win the West, the Niners almost certainly will have to beat the Rams and Cardinals in December, as they are 1-3 in the division now. For the 49ers to be in the discussion, they need McCaffrey to start making a difference.
Are the Texans further away from being an AFC contender than we thought?
Jones: Entering the season, it seemed realistic to expect the Texans to take another step forward after last year’s success. I never saw them as a team capable of challenging for the AFC title, but improvement certainly was realistic. Instead, this team has seemed off all season. Maybe it’s a sophomore slump, maybe it’s C.J. Stroud struggling with the weight of expectations, but he hasn’t been as consistently effective this season. Injuries at wide receiver have hurt; so too has the continued struggles of the offensive line. The defensive struggles are a bit perplexing. And that’s a lot to have to clean up over the next several weeks if the Texans aim to contend in the AFC. They’ll still win their division, but they’re just not on the level of Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore or Pittsburgh. So, I don’t view the Texans as legit AFC title contenders.
Pompei: The Texans are not the quality of team most of us thought they would be. They’ve had two bad losses now, to the Jets and Titans. They will have a chance to change the narrative of their season, however. They have huge games remaining against the Chiefs and Ravens — wins would put this team in a different light. But given they have had difficulty winning the games they are supposed to win, you have to wonder if they will defeat the Jaguars, Dolphins and Titans. Unless their offensive line makes significant improvements, which is unlikely, the Texans will probably have a disappointing finish.
Nguyen: All year, there were signs the Texans offense was deeply flawed despite their weapons on the outside. Their offensive line is one of the worst in football. They can’t run-block, so Stroud is forced into a lot of third-and-longs — but they also can’t pass-block, so Stroud has to deal with a lot of pressure in passing situations. Early in the season Stroud was able to play hero ball, but that was unsustainable. On the final drive, with the Texans down three points, Stroud was under siege. I’m not sure how much this offensive line can improve. The offense still has big-play ability but the negative plays caused by the line issues are a lot to overcome.
That’s four straight wins for the Vikings, with four of their final six games at home. We asked this question earlier in the season, but would you put this team in the “Super Bowl contender” category?
Pompei: The Vikings are absolutely Super Bowl contenders, despite how close they came to losing to the Bears Sunday. They are as well-coached as any team and their defense is legit — that’s a good combination. The only NFC team clearly better than Minnesota is the Detroit Lions, and the Lions aren’t that much better (two points separated the teams when they met in Minnesota in October). The Vikings also have beaten the Packers and 49ers, both NFC contenders. Assuming their season continues to unfold the way it has, the Vikings will have an opportunity to set the tone for the postseason when they play in Detroit to finish the regular season.
Jones: Good team? Yes. Playoff team? Most definitely. Super Bowl contender? Nah. They aren’t on the same level as NFC North rival Detroit. And the Vikings would probably also have a hard time beating Philadelphia. He played better on Sunday, but Sam Darnold has come back down to earth a bit, and you still don’t want to put a lot on his shoulders. That’s not the mark of a Super Bowl contender. Also, Minnesota’s defense isn’t consistently dominant. The unit has bright spots and can cause problems for a lot of teams, but it also has some costly breakdowns. They allowed Caleb Williams to throw for 340 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. They didn’t have an answer for Jared Goff earlier this season. The road to the Super Bowl looks like it will go through Detroit. Not great for Minnesota.
Nguyen: I’m not sure if I’d call them Super Bowl contenders; in the last three weeks, their defense was suffocating against Joe Flacco, Mac Jones and Will Levis, three quarterbacks who struggle against pressure. This week, the Bears scored 27 points on them. Offensively, they are explosive but it’s hard to trust Darnold in a game when more is on his shoulders. If things go according to script and the defense plays well, they can certainly win a playoff game or two, but at some point Darnold will have to win a game for them in the playoffs, and I don’t have faith in him to do that yet. They’re a talented and well-coached team, but the defense can be exposed against teams that sort out the Vikings’ pressures.
After a blowout loss to the Bucs, how did you feel about the Giants turning their season over to Tommy DeVito in order to avoid risking Daniel Jones’ injury guarantee?
Jones: Moving on from Jones made sense; it was clear he wasn’t the answer, and prolonging the misery wasn’t doing anyone any favors. Given Jones’ injury history, the Giants were smart to pull the plug rather than risk being on the hook for that $23 million injury guarantee in Jones’ contract. Going to DeVito made very little sense, however. Drew Lock, who signed a one-year, $5 million contract to join New York this offseason, had earned the No. 2 quarterback job, which means he had been better than DeVito in the eyes of his coaches. So passing over Lock to play DeVito feels like an order from above rather than a coaching decision. Giants owner John Mara cares about fan opinions and player popularity. DeVito became a fan favorite last season, so it wouldn’t be surprising to find out that Brian Daboll was instructed to give DeVito a shot in hopes of stirring up some feel-good vibes similar to the brief stint when DeVito shined last season. But … DeVito was rather underwhelming Sunday. There was no spark there. So, the Giants continue their losing ways and take another step toward the top pick in the draft. Too bad there aren’t any clear franchise-savior quarterbacks in the upcoming draft class.
Nguyen: From the perspective of building for the future it made sense. One of the worst decisions that the franchise has made recently was giving Jones a lucrative contract extension in the first place. They couldn’t risk an injury to Jones, but for the players, it’s yet another sign that the franchise is punting on this season, and they likely view it as a callous, anti-player type of decision. We’ll see if they can find some motivation to play hard for the rest of the season, but it didn’t look like they were very interested against the Buccaneers.
Pompei: I have mixed feelings. It was a murky situation. On one hand, the Giants needed a change. They needed a spark. DeVito gave them that kind of spark last year. But on the other hand, the Giants should play the quarterback who gives them the best chance to win. They owe that to the other players on the roster — some of whom indicated they thought Jones was that player — and they owe it to their fans. There is an argument to be made that they should have given the ball to Lock instead of DeVito, and maybe that’s coming. In a sense, almost any quarterback decision they could have made would have been wrong because they don’t have the player who could turn around their season.
(Top photo: Timothy Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
