NFL Week 5 roundtable: Bills-Texans, Cowboys-Steelers, Chiefs’ margin of error
The unofficial quarter-point of the 2024 season brings a pair of 4-0 teams on very different paths, a renewed rivalry between two of the league’s premier franchises, the first London excursion of the year, trade speculation and more.
Our NFL writers Mike Sando, Zak Keefer and Jeff Howe discuss some of the best storylines from Week 5 and what to watch on Sunday.
The Bills are coming off a humiliating road loss in Baltimore. The Texans rebounded against the Jaguars last week, but had to overcome penalties and also needed late heroics from C.J. Stroud. What do you think of this match between 3-1 teams?
Sando: I liked the Bills more than the Texans this season and prefer them here. Buffalo isn’t the first good team to lose big against Baltimore.
Beetle: The Bills certainly aren’t the first contender to be embarrassed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (see: the Lions and 49ers last season). I’m willing to overlook this one. The Texans’ problems are troubling. Besides the fact that Stroud and the offense couldn’t get anything going in Minnesota in a game, last week’s narrow win over a winless Jaguars team wasn’t all that reassuring. One big problem: offensive penalties. The Texans lead the league with 26 penalties accepted to date – the line has had three straight false starts against the Vikings – and in total the team has committed 40 penalties in just four games. That’s how teams lose games in this league, no matter how talented the roster is. DeMeco Ryans needs to clean this up, and fast.
How: We expected the Texans to take a step forward this season. Part of that happens by continuing to do what you were good at a season ago, and that is winning close games. So while the Texans don’t have a major win on their resume yet, their three wins total by 12 points. Last season they won six of their last seven games with one possession, so that’s a plus. It will also be fun to see how they handle such a big test. The Texans were blown out by the Vikings in their only meeting with a team that currently has a winning record, and they were not overly tested during the 2023 regular season. If the Texans win, this will be a game they can hold on as they head into January knowing they can beat an AFC elite. With the Bills probably getting a little too far ahead after losing to the Jaguars on Monday night. I would expect them to return to form against Houston.
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The Chiefs, who meet the Saints on Monday evening, give their best, but still win. How much will wide receiver Rashee Rice’s injury impact them? What do you think of the defending champions’ season so far?
Sando: Rice was a high volume, low air meter area producer, but wasn’t much of a game-changing force in this offense as it was constructed. The Chiefs’ depth suffers, but I don’t necessarily see them becoming less productive with this injury alone.
Beetle: I definitely think this makes things more difficult for an offense that is still sputtering a bit. The Chiefs may be 4-0, but they are a razor-sharp 4-0, each winning by one score or less, and scoring fewer points in each successive week. Much like the Patriots in the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady heyday, Kansas City appears to be using the first part of the season to figure things out, especially on offense, confident that it will solve its problems against the time for January to arrive. . Travis Kelce, when not covered by double teams, is still a game-changing weapon, and Xavier Worthy – who is the fastest player in the league so far, according to Next Gen Stats, with an average maximum speed of 25, 85 km/h – gives them a target group that can deeply emphasize safety. But take the saints with you in this one.
How: On paper, Rice could be the Chiefs’ most indispensable offensive player without the last name Mahomes. It’s a huge blow. But will it matter? Mahomes and the Chiefs have proven more than capable of turning it on long enough to handle any adversity they encounter, whether self-inflicted or an opponent’s own. Without Rice, they are even worse on paper. They need others to play beyond expectations. Their margin for error has become smaller. We’ve heard it all before, and the Chiefs continue to pull through. However, in the short term, things could get choppy.
The Jets and Vikings meet in London. Where does Sam Darnold rank in your MVP poll by a quarter point? What’s the biggest concern for the Jets right now after an ugly home loss to the Broncos?
Sando: I don’t think Darnold makes any standout plays to lead his team to victory, so I haven’t seen him as an MVP candidate yet. But if he somehow stayed on pace for 44-plus touchdown passes and the Vikings kept winning, we’d definitely have to reassess that. As for the Jets, keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy could be the biggest concern. Rodgers had some big hits against Denver and was able to do more against the Vikings.
Beetle: Darnold is a fun story, but the MVP chatter seems premature. Josh Allen deserves more, and by the end of the season I wouldn’t be surprised if Lamar Jackson made a strong case for going back-to-back. He looked so good on Sunday night. As for the Jets, I feel like the first month of the season is a hint of what’s to come: a rocky season where consistency from week to week is hard to find. The Jets’ two wins came against two of the worst teams in the league – the Titans and Patriots – while their losses were both ugly and concerning; they were routed by the 49ers in Week 1, but couldn’t beat a Broncos team at home in Week 4 that started a rookie passer who threw for 60 yards. Now in Rodgers they have a 40-year-old quarterback with a sore knee getting ready to play overseas against a lightning-tough defense. I don’t think things will get better for the Jets on Sunday.
How: Allen and Jackson were the top two quarterbacks in September, so I’d start with them and then filter down a level for Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and maybe two or three others who have quickly exceeded expectations. With the Jets, I’m curious about their offensive identity. Rodgers was good against two bad teams and mediocre against two fair-to-good teams. The offensive line wasn’t good enough against the Broncos, either in the passing game or the run game. And it seems like there’s always some form of distraction, including this week with the cadence story. I feel like a broken record praising Brian Flores’ defense, but the Jets still have a lot to overcome to take down the Vikings in London.
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The Colts and Jaguars meet in an AFC South clash. Would you start Joe Flacco this week even if Anthony Richardson is healthy? Would you fire Doug Pederson if Jacksonville loses again?
Sando: I would start with Richardson when he is healthy and then reassess over a longer period of time. As far as Pederson is concerned, a strong organization would stay the course during a rough start unless the coach had lost all credibility internally. This was not a strong organization under owner Shad Khan. He seems to operate more like a fan than a seasoned manager. We need to see how the team competes on the pitch before saying that another defeat should lead to major changes. I would have to see a non-competitive effort before going that route.
Beetle: Richardson has to play. He has just eight starts left in his NFL career and showed some promise early in Sunday’s win over the Steelers. He was more accurate from the pocket and rid his game of the early-season mistakes that buried the Colts in several spots in September. This season is all about reps for Richardson; As long as he is healthy, he should be on the field so that this organization will have a better idea of whether he is the future or not come January. As for Jacksonville, moving Pederson isn’t the right choice, even if it loses to Indianapolis on Sunday. Remember: The Jags started 8-3 a year ago and were in the running for the AFC’s top seed until Trevor Lawrence was injured. He’s struggled since then, but overreacting wouldn’t serve the young quarterback well. What Pederson might want to do is take back the play-calling duties.
How: Richardson and the offense were off to a good start before he injured his hip. If Shane Steichen believes that group was about to turn the corner with or without Flacco, it shouldn’t even be in question that Richardson should be on the field. But what if Steichen still has doubts that Jonathan Taylor’s early involvement contributed to the offense? In that case, with Taylor’s ankle injury, Steichen might think it’s necessary to give Flacco a shot to keep the Colts in the playoff mix. Then the decision becomes much more difficult. As for the Jaguars, they’re in bad shape, but firing Pederson now wouldn’t help Lawrence at all. The No. 1 priority, barring a miraculous playoff push, is to get Lawrence in the best possible spot for 2025. We’ll see in January whether Khan thinks Pederson should be part of that equation, but cut ties first – unless absolutely necessary for locker room purposes – would be overkill.
The Cowboys and Steelers take center stage on Sunday night. Dallas is dealing with key defensive injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Justin Fields will start again for a Steelers team that has suffered a deflating loss. What intrigues you about this matchup?
Sando: I’m intrigued to see how Fields fares against a depleted Dallas defense as Russell Wilson gets healthier. It’s a fun storyline to follow simply because the coverage surrounding the Steelers was so strong heading into the season that Wilson was the clear favorite to start.
Beetle: I think Sunday night’s game could take the Cowboys’ season in the wrong direction. In addition to their defensive obligations, Dallas’ offense got off to a very uneven four-game start, and now it will face one of the league’s most punishing defenses. Pittsburgh ranks first in third-down conversion rate (21.9 percent) and defensive points allowed (8.7 per game). And Brandin Cooks won’t be playing. A loss would leave the Cowboys at 2-3 heading into games against the Lions and 49ers, the two teams that met for the NFC Championship last winter.
How: Teams can run against the Cowboys, and the Steelers will make no apologies for running the entire game and allowing Fields to be opportunistic through the air. I’m also curious about the Steelers defense. It put 26 points in the league in three games, but could not stop Flacco and the Colts despite several opportunities. If the Colts uncover something, I’m curious to see if the Cowboys will follow suit.
(Photo by Josh Allen: G Fiume/Getty Images)
