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No. 1 Alabama upset by Vanderbilt: Are the Tide in Playoff trouble after historic loss?

They call it the college football version of the Music city wonder.

Vanderbilt made history on Saturday by defeating No. 1 Alabama 40-35. It was the Commodores’ first-ever win over an AP top-five team and just the fourth time Alabama has lost to an unranked opponent as a No. 1 team.

Diego Pavia was the star for the Commodores, passing for 233 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 20 times for 56 yards. Vanderbilt jumped out to a 13-0 lead on a Sedrick Alexander 7-yard touchdown run and a 24-yard interception return by Randon Fontenette midway through the first quarter and led 23-14 at halftime.

It was the first time the Commodores beat Alabama since 1984, and it came a week after first-year Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer posted the biggest win of his short tenure in a thriller against Georgia.

Alabama had a 94 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff under Austin Mock’s model going into this weekend, the best odds in the country. The odds dropped to 81 percent after the loss, dropping it to No. 8.

Vanderbilt thrives in Saban’s shadow

Vanderbilt has long been an SEC bottom feeder. The Commodores were 0-60 all-time versus top-five teams, a streak dating back to 1936. Legendary former Alabama coach Nick Saban poked fun at the Commodores two weeks ago on “The Pat McAfee Show,” saying, “The only place where you play in the SEC that isn’t hard to play is Vanderbilt. It’s not disrespect to them; it’s just the truth.”

Vanderbilt had fun with that quote after the win.

It’s true that Alabama has brought a fan base to Nashville, Tennessee, in anticipation of a dominant victory. Saturday’s game brought a different reality. Frustration on Alabama’s part began to overflow before the game ended.

Senior and team captain Malachi Moore was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for kicking the ball after a Vanderbilt quarterback knelt with just over a minute to play. On the sidelines, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe sat in disbelief. In a similar vein, DeBoer addressed Moore’s outburst and general frustration with Saturday’s result.

“There’s a lot of guys that are really frustrated,” DeBoer said. “I think the key is that we turn that frustration into positive things and make sure we remember what we’re feeling here tonight.”

Meanwhile, on the field, the Vanderbilt faithful had one thing in mind: Get on the field and go for the goalpost, a la Tennessee’s upset over Alabama in 2022.

Finally, the Commodores fans took the goalposts to Broadway in Nashville… and then threw them into the Cumberland River. — Kennington Smith III

Vanderbilt’s win is the biggest of the year

By pulling off the biggest Vanderbilt victory of the modern era — harkening back to the days of Dan McGugin roaming the sidelines a century ago — the Commodores created excitement for the future. And a little regret.

This team should be 5-0. If not for a painful loss at Georgia State and a double-overtime heartbreaker against Missouri, this would be college football’s highest-ranked story.

As it is, Vanderbilt is a team to watch for the rest of the season because of Pavia and the magic he creates in this dazzling option offense. He does it all, and Alabama simply couldn’t stop him from making huge plays — especially through the air in the second half. —Joe Rexrode

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Alabama is not in as much trouble on the CFP as it seems

The CFP margin of error has obviously shrunk for an Alabama team that still has challenging road games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma ahead of it.

But if the Crimson Tide continues to perform offensively like they have in the past two games, they still have a good chance to be one of the twelve teams in the tournament. This was a brutal defensive effort, especially late when Vanderbilt at times ran right into that defense for key gains.

Additionally, Vanderbilt’s offense is something Alabama won’t see again for the rest of the season. This was assignment football, poorly executed by Alabama, a week after winning the game of the year so far. Alabama should respond. Don’t run DeBoer out of town yet. – Rexrode

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Abuses in the first half

Pavia finished the first quarter 4-for-4 for 56 yards; Vanderbilt owned the ball for more than 10 minutes and converted three of four third-down attempts.

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Alabama trailed 7-0. On the Tide’s first possession, a tipped pass resulted in a pick six and Alabama’s deficit grew to 13-0.

In the second quarter, penalties hurt Alabama. Trailing 13–7, Alabama forced a punt at the Vanderbilt 47-yard line, but a penalty with both No. 2s (Zabien Brown and Ryan Williams) on the field gave Vanderbilt a first down. On the same drive, facemask and front kick penalties gave Vanderbilt two more first downs en route to a touchdown, increasing the lead to 20-7. Alabama nearly fumbled the ensuing kickoff, but the fumble call was overturned, averting catastrophe.

It’s the continuation of a trend, as the Tide entered Saturday ranked 96th nationally in total penalties and 104th in penalty yards.

Despite a nearly even margin in total yards (Vanderbilt 186, Alabama 159), the Commodores controlled the game by converting third downs – 7 of 10 in the first half. — Smith

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Why didn’t Alabama try an offside?

After Williams scored his second touchdown, Alabama trailed 40–35. With 2:46 left and all three timeouts, Alabama had a choice: attempt an offside or kick the ball downfield and trust the defense. The offense never got the ball back as the Commodores made seven plays for 54 yards to end the game. DeBoer then explained the thought process.

“A lot of thought went into it,” DeBoer said of his decision to punt. “Just understanding everything with the timeouts and the two-minute warning and everything, it really felt like we would be in a good spot even if they got one first. Depending on when that was, we would still have plenty of time to get further up the field. I don’t think it was about us being able to find guys and execute offensively and score. It was just a matter of getting the ball back.”

The decision to give Vanderbilt the ball back was questionable given the flow of the game. Vanderbilt improved its yards-per-play average in the second half (to 6.6, up from 4.7 in the first half) and converted 5 of 8 third-down attempts and finished 12 of 18 for the game . Overall, Vanderbilt dominated the time of possession with more than 42 minutes of clock control and only kicked the ball twice. It’s a bitter pill to swallow for the coaches and players, but especially for the offense, which was starting to gain momentum. Alabama’s offense scored on the final possession of the first half, the opening possession of the second half and twice more in four tries in the second half. Milroe was aligned with DeBoer in trusting the defense to get one more stop, but acknowledged it was disappointing not to get the chance for a second straight game-winning drive.

“Obviously, if you have the passion for playing football, you want to play back, you want an opportunity,” Milroe said. “The most important thing for us is trust in each other. … I was confident that the defense would get the stop, 100 percent. We were just talking on the sidelines trying to get the game plan, so every time we got back on the field we were clicking and going in the right direction. — Smith

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Williams’ magic is not enough

When Alabama needed a big play, it called on 17-year-old phenom Williams, and he delivered.

Milroe found Williams for completions of 11 and 13 yards on the first two plays of the second half, on a drive that resulted in a touchdown to cut the Tide’s deficit to 23-21.

Minutes later, after Vanderbilt extended the lead to 30-21, Williams delivered another spectacular play: a 58-yard touchdown in which he tightened the sideline on a contested catch and went the distance. Then, faced with a fourth-and-goal and trailing 40-28, Williams’ 2-yard touchdown run brought Alabama back within one possession.

His three receptions for 82 yards and rushing touchdowns were bright spots for an Alabama squad that couldn’t get over the hump to avoid an upset. In the midst of a historic loss, the true freshman continued to build his legacy early in his career. — Smith

Required reading

• Compared to Alabama, where does Vanderbilt rank among the biggest problems in college football?

• When was the last time Vanderbilt beat Alabama? More than 40 years ago

• How will Vanderbilt’s upset over Alabama affect the College Football Playoff?

(Photo of Junior Sherrill: Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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