Notre Dame’s Stunning Upset Loss to NIU: What Went Wrong for the Irish? Are Playoff Hopes Dashed?

By Pete Sampson, Stewart Mandel and Justin Williams

No. 5 Notre Dame suffered a shocking upset against Northern Illinois, losing 16-14 in South Bend on Saturday after missing a field goal from 62 yards on the final play.

According to BetMGM, the Irish were favored by 28.5 points and it marks the first time in school history that NIU has defeated a top-10 team.

After Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard threw an interception with 5:55 remaining while leading 14-13, NIU drove 31 yards on 11 plays and got a 35-yard field goal from Cannon Woodill to take the lead with 31 seconds left. The Huskies had converted a fourth down en route to the field goal, but were denied another first down on a questionable spot a few plays later, forcing them to attempt the go-ahead field goal earlier than hoped. Notre Dame completed a pass into NIU territory in the final seconds before their long field goal attempt was denied.

The loss comes a week after Notre Dame seemingly made an early College Football Playoff statement with a 23-13 win over Texas A&M. Now the Irish must pick up the pieces after a loss to a MAC team, the second time the Fighting Irish have lost at home to a Group of 5 opponent under third-year coach Marcus Freeman.

“Disappointing. It’s our job as coaches to make sure these guys are ready to go,” Freeman said afterward. “I’ve always said performance is a reflection of preparation.”

That’s what it’s all about.

NIU’s @NIUCoachHammock is overcome with emotion after leading his team to victory at Notre Dame! @NIU_Football | @NIUAthletics | #MACtion photo.twitter.com/K7oS9tsrTC

— #MACtion (@MACSports) September 7, 2024

What happened to Notre Dame?

Notre Dame can keep its College Football Playoff chances, which dropped to 34 percent immediately after Week 2, in check. The Athletics‘s model of 73 percent — and it may look a lot bleaker than that.

Even if the Irish had held on against Northern Illinois, Notre Dame looked a shadow of its former self after last weekend’s statement win at Texas A&M. It left Freeman vulnerable at the start of his third season, which looked like a makeover last week and a breakout Saturday.

For Notre Dame, the loss is a damper on a season that was supposed to define Freeman’s tenure in some way. Now he has to explain another loss to a Group of 5 team after losing to Marshall in 2022. Back then, Freeman had the benefit of time. He was supposed to be learning the ropes as a rookie head coach. This is different. Freeman is supposed to have matured on the job entering his third year, both in terms of roster construction and coaching staff.

Keeping defensive coordinator Al Golden and hiring offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock felt like a masterstroke. Getting Leonard out of Duke’s portal felt like a stroke of genius. Instead, Notre Dame is drowning in questions two weeks into the season. — Samson

GALLING DEEPER

Notre Dame Suffers Shocking Loss to NIU: How Did It All Go So Wrong for Irish?

Notre Dame’s Offense Kills Playoff Chances

For the second time in as many weeks, Notre Dame’s new-look offense failed to inspire — and this time it cost them the game. Last week against Texas A&M, the Irish admirably pulled off a pair of long touchdown runs to win in College Station, which was enough against an even worse A&M offense. But Saturday’s loss to Northern Illinois put the spotlight squarely on those struggles, particularly in the passing game, as Leonard finished 20-for-32 for 163 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions after throwing for just 158 ​​yards the previous week. Overall, NIU outrebounded Notre Dame 388 to 286.

Freeman hired Denbrock this offseason specifically to address those concerns, bringing in a veteran play-caller and someone he worked with for several years when they were both coordinators at Cincinnati. At LSU, Denbrock led the nation’s most potent offense in terms of points per game and yards per play last season, while producing a Heisman-winning QB. Neither that explosiveness nor the familiarity has materialized for Notre Dame in 2024, but they will have to if the Irish have any hope of reaching the playoffs. And after Saturday, that may not be the case. —Williams

NIU Earns Biggest Win in Program History

NIU has had its moments this year: It beat No. 21 Alabama in 2003, produced Heisman finalist Jordan Lynch and went to the Orange Bowl in 2013. But beating a top-five Notre Dame team in South Bend is without a doubt the biggest win in program history.

The Huskies’ previous highest-ranked win was against No. 15 Maryland on August 28, 2003. It is also the highest-ranked opponent a MAC team has ever defeated. The last time the MAC had a top-10 win was on September 20, 2003, when it had two, plus NIU’s win over Alabama on the same day.

Sixth-year head coach and former NIU star running back Thomas Hammock led the Huskies to the 2021 MAC championship game, but the team has gone just 11-15 since then. NIU finished tied for third place in the MAC preseason poll, and it remains to be seen if this upset is the catalyst for another championship run.

Remember: The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champion advances to the Playoffs. —Mandel

Notre Dame has a quarterback problem

For all the praise heaped on Leonard over the past nine months, Saturday was a reminder that little of it has been focused on his right arm. Leonard has leadership and run-game skills, but he’s been a developmental passer two games into his Notre Dame career. For a quarterback who plans to play at the next level, that needs to improve before the end of the season.

Leonard did not complete a pass of at least 20 yards against Northern Illinois and barely attempted one. He often seemed hesitant to read the Northern Illinois defense and was intercepted on a late throw over the middle to Jaden Greathouse in the first half. He was later intercepted in NIU territory, which set up the Huskies’ winning drive.

Leonard’s best feature remains his rushing ability, which was ominously evident during Notre Dame’s touchdown drive to open the game. Leonard had five rushing attempts on that drive, including the touchdown. It was as good as the Duke transfer looked going into the game.

During training camp, Denbrock referenced how it took Jayden Daniels until his sophomore season at LSU to figure out his offense, often not trusting his wideouts during that initial downturn. Leonard doesn’t have that much time. — Samson

Why Notre Dame’s Defense Struggled

Notre Dame’s defense put on a professional performance at Texas A&M last weekend. The Irish didn’t allow a run of 10 yards or more. They didn’t allow a pass of more than 20 yards. They gave up just 13 points.

That all fell apart against Northern Illinois when the Huskies incorporated deception into the game plan at the expense of the younger Irish linebackers. Ethan Hampton hit running back Antario Brown for an 83-yard touchdown in the first quarter with Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa covering. Brown had a 43-yard reception later in the quarter. The Huskies also posted a 28-yard run.

.@ethan_hampton4 finds @S1imeBrown and takes him 83 meters to the HOUSE!! @NIU_Football | #MACtion photo.twitter.com/ei7PTsK81U

— #MACtion (@MACSports) September 7, 2024

It’s hard to understand how Notre Dame’s younger linebackers — Viliamu-Asa, Drayk Bowen, Jaylen Sneed and Jaiden Ausberry — could regress so much in a game, even though Ausberry made a big third-down stop and a fourth-down pass breakup in the second half. Whatever the reason, Golden and linebackers coach Max Bullough have a problem to solve heading into next week’s game against Purdue.

Jack Kiser may be a reliable leader of the defense, but he needs help. — Samson

“We are 1-1. We have to accept that. But we have a long season ahead of us.” – Xavier Watts

— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) September 7, 2024

What now?

Notre Dame resumes its domestic rivalry with Purdue with a trip to West Lafayette next Saturday, followed by home games against Miami (OH) and Louisville before an off day on Oct. 5.

NIU has a week off to celebrate its monumental win in South Bend, before hosting Buffalo on Sept. 21 and visiting NC State on Sept. 28 for another shot at a Power 4 upset.

(Photo: Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)