Numbers say LeBron and co. can still do better. Here’s how
The saying in the NBA is that it’s a make-or-break game, and apparently that applies to the Olympics as well. On Tuesday, the team that shot the best won all six men’s basketball games, including Team USA’s stunning 62.3 percent shooting performance in a 110-84 win over Serbia in the season opener.
In the five exhibition games and the season opener against Serbia, the overarching theme for the US was a game in which they were able to shoot exceptionally well while also making up for other shortcomings.
Of course, “deficiencies” is a relative term. The Americans have won all six of their games this summer and are by far the most talented team on paper. They also just reintroduced the best FIBA player of all time, Kevin Durant, to spectacular effect on Sunday. The next two group stage games, against South Sudan and Puerto Rico, are unlikely to expose any fatal flaws in this Death Star team, so they should easily through to the quarter finals next week.
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Still, if you analyze the data and look back at the close results against Australia and South Sudan in the exhibition game, you can perhaps imagine a scenario where the Americans could be vulnerable against one of the better teams in the medal round. (The quarterfinal opponent probably shouldn’t pose too much of a problem, although it’s still theoretically possible for the U.S. to draw with Australia or Canada.)
While the data from the tune-up games in particular isn’t exactly Six Sigma-accurate (there seem to be two missing points in the game against Germany, for example), there’s enough information to dig deeper into the Americans’ relative weaknesses.
Below are some trend lines worth keeping an eye on as the US advances further into the tournament.
The shot shortage
Team USA’s offense has been insanely good so far, averaging 114.5 points per 100 possessions in the five exhibition games and an astonishing 130.3 against Serbia. That compares to a “league average” of 106.6 in the other five Olympic games played through Monday. The Americans posted a 60.1 percent true shooting mark in the tune-up games and 74.9 against Serbia.
However, one persistent blot on the blister is that the Americans take fewer shots than their opponent. Despite the athletic advantages that the American side seems to have, the turnover and rebounding comparisons have both been quite stacked against them. The Americans had 17 turnovers against Serbia and only six offensive rebounds, and as a result, they had an eight-possession deficit in that game. The Summer Expos saw a similar story, with a combined 22 possession gap in those games (4.5 per game).
Most notably, the US fell behind by 12 possessions in a narrow win over Germany to close out the pre-season, barely holding on despite outshooting the Germans 50 percent to 36 percent.
Remember, FIBA games are only 40 minutes long and teams only have an average of 80 possessions (the U.S. plays insanely fast compared to its competitors, so it’s more like 84 when the Americans are playing and 77 for everyone else, but you get the idea). In that context, a four- to eight-possession gap is a bigger deal, putting a lot of pressure on the U.S. to outscore its opponent.
And while we’re on the subject…
Jedi 3-point defense
If there’s one way the US is most likely to pull off an upset, it’s with an outlier 3-point shooting game from its opponent. So far, though, it’s been almost the opposite: the US has been fairly standard on defense in most respects, but has benefited from some quirky 3-point shooting games from its opponent.
Team USA opponents take nearly half of their shots from the 3-point line — in line with how most non-North American teams play in FIBA ball — but they made just 29.5 percent of them in preseason games. Serbia followed that up by making 9 of 37 shots from distance on Sunday.
This is important to note, because the only reason the U.S. has a slightly above-average trend on defense is because of the opponent’s 3-point shooting, which is most likely random variance. It’s no coincidence that the one game where the trend line pointed the other way — against South Sudan, which made 14 of 33 shots — the U.S. gave up 100 points and barely survived.
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While the quality of shots obviously matters (two of Serbia’s missed shots on Sunday were late-quarter throws, for example), that doesn’t bode well in the U.S.’s favor: Serbia created eight attempts from the corner on Sunday and was fouled on one attempt.
It’s also not like the U.S. defense has been dominant in other areas. Serbia, for example, shot 60 percent on 2s and committed just 13 turnovers. Including all six games, U.S. opponents are shooting 49.6 percent inside the arc, nearly matching the “league average” of 50 percent in the other five opening rounds of the Olympics this past weekend. What sets the U.S. apart from the competition now is entirely on the offensive side.
Understanding FIBA
As I wrote two weeks ago, the biggest challenge for Team USA during any international tournament is getting the team’s NBA stars to adapt to FIBA rules quickly enough that they’re at less of a disadvantage in the medal rounds.
This is probably the area where the U.S. team’s improvement — and experience — has been most noticeable. The Americans took 32 of their 69 shots from 3 on Sunday and made 18 of them, a stark difference from the German exhibition, where it seemed like the two teams were playing different sports (Germany took 45 3-point attempts to the U.S.’s 17); note, however, that the U.S. has struggled to generate 3s against every opponent except Serbia, with its top two outputs coming in the previous exhibition against Serbia and Sunday’s season opener.
The U.S. is efficient enough from inside the arc that it doesn’t need to take many 3s, but as Sunday showed, it can certainly offer a gliding path to victory. Getting players like Joel Embiid, Devin Booker and Anthony Edwards off the heavy 2 express they’re forced to run with their NBA teams and into a more role-player-style shooting diet could play a big role. Booker had a meh exhibition season, however, taking just one midrange jumper and making four 3-pointers on Sunday; LeBron James had eight baskets from inside the charge circle and just one long 2 on Sunday. (That’s also one reason this may have been an easier transition for Anthony Davis than it has for some players: For a superstar, he’s getting an unusually high share of assisted baskets.)
You can almost see the learning curve when you watch Embiid in particular. He was terrible against Canada and has been slowly trying to find his groove ever since. While the narrative on him may have been a bit harsh the last few games (he’s playing all his minutes against starters and setting screens for Stephen Curry), he’ll likely be more valuable to the U.S. in its next FIBA tournament than he was this one.
On the sidelines, Steve Kerr is figuring it all out simultaneously, of course, both in terms of how to use the roster (including the brave decision to DNP Jayson Tatum) and what works in the international ballgame. Optimizing the shot mix is perhaps the most visible manifestation, but certainly not the only one.
In that sense, the U.S. now at least has a reserve of experience to draw on: this isn’t the first FIBA rodeo for Kerr, nor is it for James, Durant, Jrue Holiday or several other American players, and they’ve generally been the best performers.
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summarizing
The combination of overwhelming front-line talent and ridiculous depth likely means the US ultimately earns gold. Be warned, though: Serbia’s blowout may have been a sugar rush achieved by outlier 3-point shooting from both sides. There are enough FIBA-specific warts from the early games that we can’t call this a 1992-style coronation just yet, especially if the US continues to struggle with a persistent shooting deficit.
Like the NCAA tournament, the single-elimination format in the medal round gives everyone a chance to punch, and the U.S. will have to keep pushing before opponents like Germany and Canada — the two teams the Americans defeated in last year’s World Cup — likely await in the knockout stages. Serbia’s win was a fantastic opening salvo, but the real action won’t come until next week.
(Top photo of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Devin Booker: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
