Orioles, Royals and … Babe Ruth? Astros 103, Tigers 0? Mets’ ‘Win Improbability’: MLB playoffs Day 1

So Corbin, say hello to Hippo. And Hippo, you’d have really enjoyed watching Corbin pitch. Should we mention here that Babe Ruth grew up in … Baltimore? Aw, why the heck not?

But did you also know that …

Since Babe vs. Hippo, eight other teams had lost a 1-0 game in their first postseason game that year. But none of the previous starting pitchers who took a loss in those games threw a single pitch in the ninth. At least Burnes took the mound and threw exactly one that inning, before giving up a hit and getting the rest of the day off. It still made this note possible.

In the last 70 years, only one other losing starter in one of those eight games even made it through eight innings. That was Jerry Reuss, in a 1-0 loss to the Phillies in Game 1 of the 1983 National League Championship Series.

Kansas City here we come! Don’t worry. I didn’t forget about the Royals. This was no ordinary day at the office for them, either:

• It was the first time they’d won a 1-0 game in any of the 75 postseason games in the life of the franchise.

• It was the first time they’d thrown any kind of shutout in a postseason road game.

• And it was only the second time in team history they’d started off a postseason series with a shutout. The other was Game 1 in 2015, when Edinson Volquez (and bullpen) outdueled Toronto’s Marco Estrada.

• So the Royals have now won Game 1 in six of their last eight rounds of postseason baseball. How many of those previous five rounds did they go on to win? That would be all five.

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Houston, we have a Tigers problem

Matt Vierling was the lone Tiger with postseason experience who played in Game 1. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)

If it’s October, that must be the Astros, doing that thing they do every October. By which I mean playing another postseason baseball game. As opposed to going on a Halloween hayride.

Before Tuesday, the Astros had played 103 postseason games since 2015. That’s by far the most of any American League team over those nine postseasons. The next-most is the Yankees … with 45!

Meanwhile, there were the Tigers. Until Tuesday, they’d played zero postseason games over the previous nine Octobers. And all of us official baseball experts love to tell you that inexperience is supposed to mean something this time of year.

Ho-ho-ho.

Or possibly not.

By now, you probably know it was Tarik Skubal and the Tigers who won Game 1 on Tuesday, 3-1. And the more I reflected on that, the more Weird and Wild it got. So I asked my friends at STATS Perform to dig in on this for me — to see just how rare it is for a team like the Tigers to win a postseason game against a team like the Astros. Here goes:

103 postseason games to zero? As I mentioned, the Astros had played 103 postseason baseball games since the last time the Tigers even played one (in 2014). So perhaps you’re wondering — because I was — has any team ever beaten an opponent in the postseason that had played at least 100 more postseason games over the previous nine seasons?

And that answer, according to STATS, was, basically: You’re kidding, right?

This game set the all-time postseason record for biggest games-played disparity between the winning team and the losing team, over any nine-year period preceding that postseason. Ready?

(Source: STATS Perform)

The power of Matt Vierling! You might want to take out your box score to check this. But I count 17 Tigers who played in Tuesday’s game — and precisely one of them had ever appeared in a postseason game in his life. That was Matt Vierling, who got 15 plate appearances a couple of Octobers ago for the 2022 Phillies.

But over on the other side of the field, how many Astros had previous postseason experience? The rough answer is … everybody. But the actual answer is “only” 16 of the 19 who played in that game (although they had five more waiting on the bench).

Yet somehow, the team with one postseason veteran upended the team with 16? How even?

So how often had something like that happened? That answer, according to STATS, is only once! In 120 years of postseason baseball. Here’s the only other time the winning team in a postseason game had 15 fewer players with postseason experience than the losing team:

Game 1, 2002 ALDS — A.J. Pierzynski’s Twins, featuring no players with postseason chops, topped David Justice’s “Moneyball” A’s, who rolled out 15 players that day who had been there, done this.

I’m sure Brad Pitt remembers that game. Now who will play A.J. Hinch in the Bengalball flick?

One more thing on Tigers-Astros

Here’s a fun nugget that it looks as if only us knuckleheads at Weird and Wild World HQ seem to have noticed about this Detroit-Houston series:

This is a series unlike almost any other in postseason history. And why is that? Because it’s a matchup between teams that blew up the odds just to get here.

On Aug. 10, the Tigers were 10 games out in the wild-card race — and they’re still playing.

On June 18, the Astros were 10 games out in the AL West race — and they’re still playing.

So here’s the big question I asked myself Tuesday morning: Is this the first series in postseason history between two teams that had to climb out of 10-game holes just to play in it?

And that answer is … not quite. But to find the only other one, you have to go back more than half a century — to the 1973 NLCS.

That year, Pete Rose’s Big Red Machine was 11 games out on June 30 … and still won the NL West.

And Rusty Staub’s ’73 Mets were 12 1/2 games out in the NL East in July … and still won the most mediocre division ever (with 82 wins).

Whereupon those Mets pulled off one of the most shocking NLCS upsets ever, by beating the 99-win Reds in five games. Are we headed for a Tigers repeat of that story? Just asking!

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Speaking of the Mets

Harrison Bader and the odds-defying Mets have a spring in their step. (Benny Sieu / Imagn Images)

Are the Mets not that familiar with that trendy new 21st-century metric, Win Probability? Or are they just creating their own trendy new metric — Win Improbability?

On Monday in Atlanta, they won a game in which their Win Probability dropped below 9 percent two times, in the eighth inning and again in the ninth. Then on Tuesday in Milwaukee, they did it again.

When Luis Severino plunked Rhys Hoskins with a pitch with the bases loaded, it dropped the Mets down a 2-0 canyon in the first inning. Which meant they already had a Win Probability of under 25 percent seven batters into the game.

To which we ask: Why do we even keep track of this stuff?

Once again, the Mets won a Win Improbability special. Four batters into the next half-inning, they were leading, 3-2. They then blew that lead … and responded with a five-run fifth inning. But the Weird and Wild part is, this turned into a win unlike almost any other in Mets postseason history.

Only one other time have the Mets won an October baseball game with this script: Fall behind, 2-0 or worse, through the first inning. … Come back and take the lead. … Blow that lead and fall behind again. … Then roar back and win.

The only other time they ever did that? It happened in the first postseason series, and third postseason game, in the life of the franchise: Game 3 of the 1969 NLCS against Atlanta.

• Served up a two-run homer to Henry Aaron in the first. Braves 2, Mets 0.

• Came back to take a 3-2 lead in the fourth on a Ken Boswell homer.

• Fell behind again on an Orlando Cepeda two-run homer in the fifth.

• Charged back to retake the lead in the bottom of the fifth, and eventually won, 7-4.

Winning pitcher that day? An up-and-coming 22-year-old reliever … named Nolan Ryan.

C’mon, say it with me: OMG!

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Did somebody mention win probability?

Look, I know we’re already one day into the Wild Card Series. But I have a confession:

I can’t stop thinking about Monday in Atlanta. I can’t stop thinking about a Braves-Mets classic full of more twists and turns than the Monaco Grand Prix.

I want you to imagine a world in which Game 1 of that Monday doubleheader was a playoff game, not what amounted to a play-in game. Wouldn’t it go down in the annals with the greatest postseason games ever played?

I know it would. So I set out to prove it, with the help of the amazing Katie Sharp of Baseball Reference. Here are the two questions I posed to Katie on Tuesday.

Has there ever been a postseason game in which both teams spun off lead-flipping rallies of four runs or more in the same inning — in the eighth inning or later?

To recap: The Mets trailed, 3-0, entering the eighth … and scored six runs. Then the Braves found themselves three runs behind entering the bottom of the eighth … and scored four runs.

So how many times has there been an inning like that in any postseason game in history? The answer: Not once!

Whew. So then I also asked this:

Has there ever been a postseason game in which there were three consecutive lead-flipping half-innings in the eighth inning or later?

To recap again: After that wild eighth inning put the Braves on top, 7-6, Francisco Lindor unfurled a swing for the ages in the top of the ninth. And one unforgettable two-run homer later, the Mets were leading again, 8-7.

THAT’S WHY HE’S THE MVP. THAT’S WHY HE’S THE GOAT. pic.twitter.com/NMd3n6TQIe

— x – New York Mets (@Mets) September 30, 2024

Now let’s swing back into Imagine That Was October mode. Have there ever been three half-innings like that in a row in any postseason game ever played?

The answer: Never! But that’s not all. There have never been three total lead-flipping half-innings in the eighth or later in a postseason game, even if we don’t require them to be consecutive. Not even in games that entertained us for 12 or 15 or 18 innings.

So there’s a reason that game Monday made your heart thump. Because it felt like a playoff game, except for the fact there had never been a playoff game like it before!

I know this is supposed to be the Wild Card Series edition of Weird and Wild. But I couldn’t help myself. We all need to savor that one for just a little longer.

Party of Five

Michael King for the win. (Denis Poroy / Imagn Images)

Don’t touch that clicker. Hang with us for five more entertaining Weird and Wild (Card) nuggets!

1. IT’S GOOD TO BE KING! How unhittable was Padres starter Michael King? How about 12 strikeouts, no walks, no runs and one win worth of unhittable. So what’s so Weird and Wild about that?

Regular-season games in Padres history of 12+ K’s, no walks, no runs and a win: None!

Postseason games in any team’s history of 12+ K’s, no walks, no runs and a win: None! (Hat tip: STATS)

2. THE STARS WERE BRIGHT, FERNANDO! Just when you thought we might make it through an entire day of postseason baseball without a homer, Fernando Tatis Jr. said: Stop it!

First homer of the postseason, courtesy of Fernando Tatis Jr.!

🎥 @MLBpic.twitter.com/jgtKxLuxPx

— The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) October 2, 2024

Now here comes the Weird and Wild part: That swing meant that Tatis homered in this postseason before his team made an out in this postseason. And also … he’s not the leadoff hitter.

That’s not a first. But the list of the eight previous times it’s been done by a non-leadoff hitter is so cool, you need to see it.

• Hal McRae, 1977 Royals
• Mo Vaughn, 1988 Red Sox
• Matt Kemp, 2009 Dodgers
• Paul Goldschmidt, 2017 Diamondbacks
• Justin Turner, 2017 Dodgers
• Aaron Judge, 2018 Yankees
• Yasmani Grandal, 2019 Brewers
• Aaron Judge, 2020 Yankees

(Source: STATS Perform)

Home runs like that are such a jolt of electricity, it often feels like those games and those series are never the same. True! Five of the last six teams to hit one enjoyed riding that wave so much, they went on to win that series. The only exception: Yasmani Grandal’s Brewers.

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3. CLEANUP IN AISLE FIVE! One thing we learned Tuesday should come as no surprise to anybody who’s been paying attention: The Tigers are gonna Tiger! Even in October.

So naturally, in the fifth inning of their first postseason game in 10 years, what did manager A.J. Hinch do? Pinch hit for his cleanup hitter (Andy Ibáñez)! What else?

According to STATS, it was only the 12th time in postseason history that any team pinch hit for its cleanup hitter in the fifth inning or earlier. Check out the rest of this distinguished club:

Wild Card Era — Travis d’Arnaud (2020 Braves), Kiké Hernández (2017 Dodgers), Edwin Encarnación (2017 Indians), Benny Agbayani (1999 Mets).

Division Play Era — Eric Davis (1990 Reds), Mike Marshall (1988 Dodgers), Dan Driessen (1987 Cardinals), Joe Lefebvre (1983 Phillies).

Early 20th century — Elmer Smith (1920 Indians), Doc Hoblitzell (1915 Red Sox), Norm Larker (1959 Dodgers).

Half of those appear to be because of an injury. But the Tigers? This is who they are.

Bobby Witt Jr.’s sixth-inning single gave the Royals the only run they’d need. (Tommy Gilligan / Imagn Images)

4. AT WITT’S END! Of course you knew there’d be a Bobby Witt Jr. note coming. Didn’t you? You’re welcome!

So who drove in the only run (for the Royals) in that 1-0 game in Baltimore? Witt did. Naturally. But did you know that …

In the history of postseason baseball, just one other shortstop besides Witt ever drove in the only run in a 1-0 game? That was Jeremy Peña, for the Astros, in that 18-inning American League Division Series classic in Seattle in 2022.

And what happened after that? The World Series MVP that year turned out to be … Jeremy Peña. Feel free to file that away, just in case.

5. MORE OUTS THAN BATTERS? Finally, here’s one more Weird and Wild thing that happened Tuesday that you don’t see every day in October — or any other month. Check out the pitching line of Astros reliever Caleb Ferguson:

1 out, 0 batters faced!

How’d that happen? Easy. Ferguson entered the game with two outs in the eighth. He threw one pitch … in the dirt. So the Tigers’ Matt Vierling tried to hustle from first base to second … and got thrown out. And there you go. More outs than batters for Caleb Ferguson.

Before I could even look this up, YES Network’s James Smyth was all over it. Turns out only five other pitchers are known to have done this in a postseason game:

• Larry French, Dodgers, 1941 World Series Game 4

• David Wells, Blue Jays, 1992 World Series Game 6

• Greg Swindell, Diamondbacks, 2002 NLDS Game 3

• Kevin Gryboski and Ray King, Braves, 2003 NLDS Game 5*

(*both in the same game!)

Does any other sport break the math books the way this one does? It should be totally impossible for any pitcher to record more outs than batters. But when it shows up in this column, we don’t even blink, right? Because it’s …

Baseball!

(Top photo of Orioles manager Brandon Hyde removing Corbin Burnes in the ninth inning: Mary DeCicco / MLB Photos via Getty Images)