Paul Skenes Ks Juan Soto and Aaron Judge cap off the most dominant rookie pitching season in 50 years

NEW YORK – As a two-strike fastball from Paul Skenes whizzed toward him, New York Yankees slugger Juan Soto read it like a ball and began moving backward from the plate. In an age where almost everything is up for debate, there is an overwhelming consensus that Soto has the best eye of any baseball player. This time he was deceived. Soto pulled his front elbow out of the way. But the Pittsburgh Pirates rookie phenom had a 100-mph heater painted on the black.

Skenes struck out three in a shortened start Saturday, and each was his own chef’s kiss. Skenes saw Soto and Aaron Judge for the first time since the start of the All-Star Game, caught Soto looking and turned a sweeper past Judge’s bat for strike three. Skenes then dispatched Jazz Chisholm Jr. for the final time of his rookie season. in the same manner as Soto, with a triple-digit fastball that looped back to the infield corner for strike three.

“If you can execute with fastballs on your arm,” Pirates manager Derek Shelton said, “it puts you in a different category.”

This was the final pitch of Paul Skenes’ rookie season…

Absolutely incredible pic.twitter.com/sWmIMmvkE4

— MLB (@MLB) September 28, 2024

The 22-year-old Skenes is indeed in his own category. Despite spending the first six weeks of the season at Triple A, Skenes posted the most dominant season of any starting pitcher of the past 50 years.

In a 9-4 victory for Pirates on Saturday, Skenes, starting opposite Yankees right-hander Luis Gil in a matchup of Rookie of the Year leaders, pitched two perfect innings before leaving the field with a smile. He finished the season 11-3 with a 1.96 ERA over 133 innings, with 170 strikeouts and 32 walks.

According to ERA+, which takes into account league and park factors, the last starter with a comparable rookie season to Skenes (211 ERA+) did it 51 years ago — Montreal Expos righty Steve Rogers (245 ERA+), who started just 17 games in 1973 but finished seven of them, with a 1.54 ERA in 134 innings.

Since then…

The honorees on the list include Rookie of the Year winners Dwight Gooden (137 ERA+), Fernando Valenzuela (135) and Kerry Wood (129).

“(Skenes) has been one of the big stories of Major League Baseball this year: first pick, doesn’t break camp and then starts in the All-Star Game,” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said before Saturday’s game. “He’s clearly had a phenomenal year. I think our guys are looking forward to meeting him.

“He is a player who has truly taken the league by storm and emerged as one of the game’s outstanding starters.”

The story of Skenes’ rookie season is best told in bullet points:

• Since 2000, nine starters have had a sub-2 ERA in at least 130 innings per season: Pedro Martínez, Roger Clemens, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jake Arrieta, Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and now Skenes.

• Skenes is the fourth pitcher in MLB history with a sub-2 ERA and at least 11 strikeouts per nine innings.

• He is the second pitcher since 1913 with a sub-2 ERA through 23 starts.

• He is the fifth rookie since 1900 with at least 150 strikeouts and fewer than 40 walks.

• Skenes allowed six hits or fewer in all 23 starts, the third-longest stretch to start a career in history.

• Since his May 11 debut, Skenes leads all starters in ERA (1.96), strikeout rate (32.9 percent), average fastball velocity (98.9 mph) and win probability added (3.71), and he ranks ranked second in WHIP (0.95), opposing hitter average (.198), FIP (2.48) and strikeout-minus-walk percentage (26.6 percent).

From his first Major League pitch at 4:07 PM on May 11, a 100-mph four-seamer, to his final pitch Saturday in the Bronx, a 100-mph four-seamer, Skenes delivered results for the Pirates time and time again . He threw six no-hit innings in his second start and seven no-hit innings in his eleventh start. He drove 100 mph past Shohei Ohtani. He started the All-Star Game. Skenes allowed two or fewer earned runs in 20 of 23 starts and remained remarkably consistent even as the Pirates’ playoff chances plummeted in August.

Skenes will earn a full year of service by finishing in the top two in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, so his brilliance will send him to free agency after five more seasons, not six. The Pirates made no attempts to cut Skenes or sharply limit his innings late in the season, moves that could have hurt his Rookie of the Year case. In recent weeks, Shelton has helped Skenes win over Jackson Merrill and Jackson Chourio several times.

“He’s doing things we haven’t seen anyone do before,” Shelton said Saturday. “Since he came along, it’s hard to argue that he’s not only been Rookie of the Year, but one of the best pitchers in baseball. To have a sub-2 ERA in his first year, especially in today’s era, that’s pretty special.”

Shelton was around several standout young pitchers earlier in his career: CC Sabathia in Cleveland; David Price, Chris Archer and Snell in Tampa; Jose Berrios in Minnesota. No one arrived like Skenes. “That’s a pretty good group of guys,” Shelton said, “and I’d put him right up there.”

The Skenes Effect was clearly visible on Pittsburgh’s North Shore this summer. Skenes threw seven of the Pirates’ twenty most attended home games this season. The average attendance at PNC Park for Skenes starts was 25,460. On another day: 20,504.

The Pirates had several high-profile pitching debuts in the 2010s — Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Mitch Keller — but none were as capable of eviscerating opponents as Skenes. In fact, the Pirates had never seen anything like this from a rookie starter since Chester A. Arthur was in office, as only Denny Driscoll had a better ERA (1.21) or ERA+ (218) through 23 starts in a season in 1882 than Skenes.

The Pirates haven’t had a single starter in the live-ball era, started at least 23 games and have a lower ERA or higher ERA+ than Skenes.

Closest ERA: 1968, Bob Veale, 2.05

Closest ERA+: 1977, John Candelaria, 169

Skenes struck out 32.9 percent of batters this season, more than any other right-handed starter in the sport, by spitting gas and ripping splinkers — a sinker/splitter hybrid that Skenes accidentally picked up while playing catch after the draft last year. The splinker elevated a pitch mix that concerned some evaluators, who felt Skenes relied too heavily on a flat fastball and sweeping slider. Opponents have been confused by the splinker, hitting .184 with a .234 slugging percentage against the pitch.

When asked what struck him about Skenes, Boone pointed to “the size, the power and the ease with which he generates things – along with some cool names for his pitches.” Boone added, “He’s so big and generates so much power without looking like he’s putting in any effort.”

Skenes averaged 98.9 mph on his four-seam fastball. He hit triple figures 100 times, more than twice as many as any other starter. But it was his ability to sequence and execute his mix six pitches deep that was so impressive during the stretch run. He turned to his substitution at key moments in September. He dialed back his fastball usage and, in his last start, attacked Soto and Chisholm with heat right under their hands.

Paul Skenes roasts Juan Soto. pic.twitter.com/V2rzmqsIlq

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2024

What will his manager remember about Skenes’ rookie season?

“The fact that he kept getting better,” Shelton said.

Skenes has allowed four earned runs in his last seven starts.

Skenes has had the most dominant rookie season since Steve Rogers, but not the most valuable. That’s a more complicated case to make.

Skenes entered Saturday with 5.8 WAR, ranked 20th among rookie starters in the live-ball era by Baseball Reference. Brandon Webb, José Fernández and Michael Soroka are all higher on the list. At number 1, by a complete win, is Mark Fidrych: 9.6 WAR. Fidrych had a 2.45 ERA and 159 ERA+ over 250 1/3 innings for the 1976 Tigers. Skenes did not get within 100 innings of Fidrych.

When it comes to WAR, The Bird still stands alone.

And yet, had Skenes been on the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, it could have been significantly closer. With 10 more starts at this pace, Skenes would have 8.4 WAR, third among rookie starters in the live-ball era.

*Estimate based on Skenes’ pace over 22 starts

Asked after his start Saturday if he had met his expectations for 2024, the always understated Skenes said he didn’t bring many expectations into the season. He just wanted to get the ball every fifth day.

“I don’t know what I could have done differently,” Skenes said, “but I’m definitely happy with how this season turned out.”

In total, Skenes threw 160 innings this season between the minors and majors. That seems to have been the Pirates’ number of choice all along. Shelton spoke with Skenes in St. Louis two weeks ago and said he would go five innings against the Reds and two against the Yankees in his last two starts.

Skenes would have preferred to pitch unrestricted this season — the late start effectively prevented him from capturing the ERA title or competing for the NL Cy Young Award — but the Pirates managed to keep him healthy and ready for a bigger workload in 2025 .We didn’t know if (the plan) would be perfect,” Shelton said. ‘I don’t know if anyone has done that. I realize people will be critical because they wanted to see it.’

Skenes has two goals for next season. The first is a repetition.

“Just take the ball and throw,” he said.

The second?

“Win a lot of baseball games.”

(Photo: Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)