PETER VAN ONSELEN: How Anthony Albanese’s cabinet reshuffle will actually unfold: ‘Give him a piece of paper’

This Sunday, Anthony Albanese will announce the changes to his ministerial line-up, after two ministers resigned due to their departure from politics at the next elections.

But don’t think that the Labour Prime Minister can decide for himself who will be in his cabinet.

No, no, no, that’s not how it works in the Labor Party.

In case you didn’t know, the faction leaders sit down together and decide who from their faction gets to enter the Ministry of Labor.

There are a total of 30 ministerial positions, most in the cabinet, some in the outer ministry. The right faction is allocated about half of the positions, the left faction gets the rest.

The Prime Minister is handed a piece of paper stating exactly who will be part of his ministry from each faction.

After that, he gains some power: he chooses everyone’s portfolios except that of Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, who, as Deputy Prime Minister, has the right to choose his portfolios.

Because the two outgoing ministers, Linda Burney and Brendan O’Connor, come from the left, that faction will choose two new entrants to the ministry to replace them

It is rumoured that one of them will become Assistant Minister for Indigenous Affairs, Senator Malarndirri McCarthy.

The other option is a choice between three other assistant ministers: Patrick Gorman and Senators Tim Ayres and Jenny McAllister, and one junior minister, Stephen Jones.

Don’t make the mistake of thinking that the Labour Prime Minister gets to pick and choose who’s in his Cabinet. No, no, no, that’s not how it works in the Labour Party.

Before we go any further, assistant ministers are NOT part of the ministry. They are technically on the frontbench, but they are outside the 30 ministerial roles.

According to the rules, government parties may appoint an additional 15 MPs and senators to the position of ‘assistant minister’.

The Prime Minister chooses these positions himself, without being dictated to by the factions.

Incidentally, assistant ministers used to be called ‘parliamentary secretaries’ until the title was changed after some within their ranks expressed frustration at being mistaken for the minister’s secretary rather than a key member of the team.

I always thought that your secretary is the most important thing working for you, because they keep you organized. But some politicians took offense at cases of mistaken identity, so the title of parliamentary secretary no longer exists.

Back to Sunday’s seat reshuffle… Senator McCarthy, himself an Indigenous person, fits perfectly into the Indigenous affairs portfolio that Burney is vacating.

Both political parties have now embraced the benefits of appointing an indigenous politician to handle the indigenous portfolio, where possible.

Senator Malarndirri McCarthy is widely expected to take over the Indigenous Affairs portfolio from Linda Burney

Dr. Andrew Charlton, who is sitting in the backseat, has a PhD in economics

Albo’s close friend, Senator Tim Ayres, is expected to be promoted

Although there are four possibilities to fill the other vacant ministerial position, only two options are actually being considered: Senators McAllister and Ayres, with Ayres the favorite to secure the promotion, largely because he and Albo are good friends.

McAllister still has a chance because she is left wing (like the rest of the options) and she is a senator (like Ayres). Apparently, the Labor team is keen to increase the number of senators with ministerial portfolios.

Currently there are only four, but if the two retiring senators are replaced by two senators, that number will rise to six, apparently simplifying the work of the Senate.

Unfortunately, Gorman and Jones are both better qualified for promotion than the other four: Jones because he at least has experience as a junior minister; Gorman because he was a senior adviser to a premier and parliamentary secretary for the WA Labor Party when it won a historic election victory with Mark McGowan.

Stephen Jones, the assistant treasurer, is also a possibility for promotion

Well, talent rarely wins in Labor. Which is why the two best replacements for the soon-to-be vacant assistant ministerial positions don’t go to the two most qualified options: Andrew Charlton and Daniel Mulino.

Remind me, are we in a per capita recession? Yes, we are. Is the cost of living the central issue at the moment? Yes, we are. Does this government need to find ways to improve its economic management credentials and talent on its frontbench? Absolutely, the only member of the Cabinet’s powerful Spending Review Committee with an economics degree is Albo himself.

Charlton and Mulino, currently on the backbenches, hold PhDs in economics from Oxford and Yale universities, respectively. Their economic knowledge and experience – in government and the private sector – is unparalleled.

It is certainly more formidable than the skills of Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Dr Chalmers has a PhD in politics… and studies the leadership of Paul Keating.

While there’s always a small chance that Albo will do the right thing and promote one or two of this pair, the chances of both of them doing so are slim to none, as they’re in the wrong faction.

The two likely promotions from the assistant ministerial ranks to the cabinet both come from the left faction, with Charlton and Mulino on the right.

So the stupidity of the Labor Party’s factional structure will likely once again prevent it from doing the right thing and rewarding talent.

Meanwhile, Immigration Minister Andrew Giles is probably a little nervous that his head is on the chopping block, given the utterly miserable job he has done with his portfolio.

He released criminals who had reoffended back into the community. He changed the rules after he came to power, making this kind of atrocities possible.

On the chopping block: Immigration Minister Andrew Giles

Home Secretary Clare O’Neil’s future uncertain

But he needn’t worry. While he may be shuffled into another portfolio, he can also easily screw things up without consequences. Giles probably won’t be dumped, because his faction will protect him.

And even if that doesn’t happen, Albo probably will, given that he used to be the driving force behind the left-wing Labour party and Giles is a good friend.

If Giles is to be moved to another position, I propose that Veterans Affairs MP Matt Keogh goes straight to Immigration.

Keogh’s constituency in Western Australia is not as diverse as some Labor seats, so his tougher immigration policies are unlikely to have as negative an impact on his seat or state as they would in other seats.

Giles can then move on to devising a way to create problems in the veterans affairs portfolio.

The only thing left to think about is Home Secretary Clare O’Neil. Is she also being pushed sideways into another portfolio given the problems she’s had? It’s a firm of mine perhaps.

In any case, she doesn’t have to worry: her right-wing faction will take care of her and make sure she stays on the list to remain a minister, even if Albo had the courage to dump her, which, frankly, he doesn’t.

Other minor changes can be made to the list of 45 ministers and assistant ministers, including name changes in portfolios. This always gives the false impression that something has changed, when in reality it has not.

But since Albo wants to make a virtue of his failure to make changes in his ministry in the first two years – and touts his passivity in the face of failure as a strength – I think there will be minimal changes rather than a major shakeup.