PETER VAN ONSELEN: When will Albo call the elections? Two insiders pull back the curtain on the Prime Minister’s secret calculations – and boldly brag about Peter Dutton and Trump

Now that the parliamentary year is over and after Labor passed no fewer than 31 bills in the final days, attention has turned to when the Prime Minister will call next year’s election.

Daily Mail Australia has spoken to two well-placed Labor strategists who explained the pros and cons for Anthony Albanese of bringing forward the election date, rather than waiting until after the budget and serving a full parliamentary term as promised.

“If we go early that would mean the election would have to take place in late February or sometime before the end of March,” said a Labor MP with insider knowledge of the campaign strategy.

‘An election February 22 would require Albo to call the elections no later than Sunday, January 19. Or he could do it around Australia Day and have the election happen March 1 instead of.’

With a rate cut early in the new year looking increasingly less likely, the MP said going early was a good option as it would avoid having to table a budget in April that is ‘showered in red figures’.

Next year’s budget is expected to show a significant budget deficit for the current fiscal year – and for all four years thereafter.

“By getting started early, we can campaign on two consecutive budget surpluses and benefit from the overlap of our campaign with the state [election] campaign in Washington.”

The election date in Western Australia has been set March 8and the state Liberals in WA are in disarray.

If Anthony Albanese delays the election until the last minute it is in the hope he can turn things around, Labor insiders told Daily Mail Australia

Anthony Albanese launched his 2022 election campaign in Perth and Labor picked up five seats that helped secure majority government, benefiting from the popularity of then WA Labor Prime Minister Mark McGowan.

It is even possible that Albo calls the election for the same day as the WA election, forcing the state to postpone its elections.

The Australian Electoral Commission has asked for a two-week break between elections, but that is not legally required.

The other Labor strategist believes there are too many risks in calling the election on or before the Australia Day weekend.

“That could irritate voters,” he said. ‘No one wants an election campaign to start at that time of year. January is a sacred time off for Australians.”

The other option for early elections would be to let parliament sit for a week or two in February “before it would take place in late March or even early April.”

“That way we can get the WA election out of the way, but still get to the polls before we have to table a difficult budget with a large budget deficit,” the strategist said.

“As soon as elections are called, the budget will be delayed.”

One of the party’s insiders was convinced Labor could ‘paint Peter’ [Dutton] so extreme’

That opens the prospect of early elections before May, as long as this does not clash with Easter.

Both Labor insiders agree that whether the election takes place at the end of February or sometime in March or April, the government will be sure to precede the formal campaign with a barrage of taxpayer-funded advertising.

“Of course that always helps,” says someone.

Labor’s decision to push so many bills through parliament this year has led to speculation that Anthony Albanese, despite promising to serve a full term ahead of the May election, is considering an early exit.

One reason is that it would allow him to take advantage of the uncertainty expected to follow Donald Trump’s return as US president.

Trump’s inauguration will take place on January 20, which is Wednesday, January 21, here in Australia.

“We would obviously not choose to directly criticize the uncertainty that Trump’s return is likely to cause,” the Labor MP said.

“But our message would be that in uncertain times you are better off with the government you know, and not risk electing someone like Peter Dutton.

‘It’s a very good theme for us.’

Coming soon, on January 20: Labor also hopes to capitalize on the global uncertainty caused by Donald Trump’s return to office in America

The second Labor strategist agrees: ‘Trump’s return could work for us. Of course he is popular there and won, but our electoral system is different and voting is compulsory in Australia.’

‘You have to carry the center with you and paint Peter [Dutton] extreme shouldn’t be that difficult,” he adds.

“But ultimately it is Albo’s decision,” the Labor MP emphasizes.

“He’ll take advice from those around him and he’ll know what the polls say, but if he’s worried that going early might be too risky, he’ll wait and hope things get better.”

No first-term government has lost a re-election bid since 1931, but the Albanian government is currently trailing in published polls.

Laughing, the Labor MP said: ‘Albo may not want to become the turkey who “brought Thanksgiving forward” by calling a snap election if he thinks he will lose.

“He may not even want to do it if it looks like he too will be reduced to leading a minority government.”

Be that as it may, the chances of early elections appear to be diminishing as the sun sets on the 2024 parliamentary year.

“Basically he’ll call it if he thinks he can win. If he is afraid that he cannot win, he waits until the very last moment, hoping that the situation will turn around.’