Poll Freshwater Strategy: Big blow for Anthony Albanese and Labor, but it’s not all good news for Peter Dutton and the Coalition, months before the election

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has suffered another major setback, with a new poll suggesting he could find himself even further in a minority government.

The poll shows the Labor government has lost ground in the preference vote, with Peter Dutton’s Coalition leading for the first time since the 2022 election.

The Freshwater Strategy Poll of 1,003 voters, conducted for Australian Financial Overviewshows that the coalition now has a lead of 51 percent to 49 percent based on the preference of two parties.

Labor’s pre-election result fell by one point to 31 percent, while the Coalition remained unchanged on 40 percent.

Despite the dismal results, Albanese (45 percent) remains the favorite prime minister over Dutton (39 percent), after he gained two points to increase his lead.

However, the prime minister’s net approval rating – the difference between his disapproval rating (48 percent) and his approval rating (34 percent) – has fallen to its lowest point since the election two years ago.

Michael Turner, director of Freshwater Strategy, told The Australian Financial Review that if the two-party preference trend continues, Labor could end up in a minority government.

“Looking at the long-term trend, it appears that the federal Labor party has done little to halt the decline in support for them over the past two years,” he said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (pictured right) has been dealt a major blow as voters say they are increasingly pessimistic, a damning new poll shows

‘If the preference for two parties slides a little further, the coalition could come close to forming a workable coalition that can pass legislation.

‘While elections have been won in the past by leaders who judged it badly, such as (former Victorian Premier) Dan Andrews, there is clearly a concern about Albanese among voters that is gradually and steadily growing.’

About 56 percent of voters said the country was heading in the wrong direction, while 29 percent believed Australia was on the right track.

The figures show the lowest level of optimism since the last election.

Voters were also discouraged about the economy, with 50 percent fearing conditions would get worse, while 29 percent believed conditions would improve.

The cost of living remains the top priority for voters, with 73 percent saying it is the most important issue the government should address.

Housing and accommodation is the second most important issue at 42 percent, followed by management of the economy and health and social care at 26 percent.

Crime and social order are the top five concerns at 25 percent.

The government is struggling to tackle the cost of living after inflation hit a whopping 7.8 percent in December 2022, well above the targeted 2 to 3 percent.

However, the consumer price index has fallen, with the latest monthly figures showing a percentage of 3.6 percent.

Homeowners are also being hit hard, with the Reserve Bank having raised interest rates no fewer than 13 times since May 2022.

Since November 2023, the rates have been 4.35 percent.

On health and social care, Labour’s lead over its rivals is only between 36 and 31 percent.

The coalition leads the government on the two-party preferential vote with 51 percent to 49 percent (photo Peter Dutton)

The data shows that Labor would lose as many as seven seats at the next election, taking its total in the House of Representatives to 71 seats.

That number is well below the 76 seats the government needs to govern with a majority.

The coalition would gain seats somewhere in the mid-2060s, up from the current 55.

The next elections are expected to be held no later than May 2025.