Predicting the 12-team College Football Playoff selection committee’s initial rankings
The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released Tuesday night (7 p.m. ET), and once again I’ll use my projection model to try to predict how the selection committee will rank the teams each week.
I looked into metrics that have been rated by the committee in the past, and after some guessing and checking, I found a formula that tested well against the actual rankings. There are some caveats, the biggest being that this is the first year of the 12-team Playoff and I’m using data from the four-team era. Will the criteria change? We’ll find out.
Additionally, the committee members change from year to year, and I don’t know if different people will change what is valued. But I’m pretty sure the changes won’t be drastic and the formula I created will probably be quite accurate.
Here’s what I expect Tuesday’s rankings to be:
Expected CFP Top 25 after week 10
|
Rank |
Team |
File |
SOS |
AP poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
9-0 |
38 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
7-1 |
3 |
2 |
|
|
3 |
7-1 |
22 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
9-0 |
65 |
4 |
|
|
5 |
7-1 |
78 |
5 |
|
|
6 |
7-1 |
30 |
6 |
|
|
7 |
9-0 |
82 |
8 |
|
|
8 |
7-1 |
59 |
7 |
|
|
9 |
8-0 |
62 |
9 |
|
|
10 |
7-1 |
35 |
10 |
|
|
11 |
6-2 |
2 |
11 |
|
|
12 |
8-1 |
46 |
13 |
|
|
13 |
6-2 |
12 |
14 |
|
|
14 |
7-1 |
83 |
12 |
|
|
15 |
7-2 |
14 |
15 |
|
|
16 |
7-2 |
50 |
16 |
|
|
17 |
7-1 |
74 |
17 |
|
|
18 |
6-2 |
51 |
19 |
|
|
19 |
8-0 |
131 |
18 |
|
|
20 |
7-1 |
79 |
20 |
|
|
21 |
7-2 |
49 |
22 |
|
|
22 |
6-2 |
55 |
21 |
|
|
23 |
7-1 |
84 |
23 |
|
|
24 |
6-3 |
11 |
25 |
|
|
25 |
6-3 |
18 |
24 |
Next five: Missouri, South Carolina, UNLV, Arizona State, Tulane
Biggest question: What to do with Notre Dame?
There’s a pretty big unknown at Notre Dame considering its home game loss to Northern Illinois, which is probably the biggest upset we’ve seen from a contender since the CFP started in 2014. I’m not sure exactly how the committee will punish the Fighting Irish for that. So I decided to experiment, because my model is quite optimistic about where the Irish will rank at the end of the season, with an 88 percent chance of making the bracket.
What if I count the Northern Illinois loss as a 1.5 loss and see how that changes Notre Dame’s rankings? This is mostly projection and could be completely off base, but some seem to think Notre Dame will be severely punished, especially if they lose another game. Notre Dame’s current projected ranking with just one loss is 10th; with this additional penalty it would drop to 11th place. So not a big drop in the rankings, but clearly in the bubble.
I think the AP Poll (No. 10) punished Notre Dame for the loss, while the Coaches Poll (No. 8) was a little more forgiving. What will the CFP committee do? I suspect it follows the AP poll’s lead and ranks the Irish lower than the coaches.
GO DEEPER
2024 College Football Playoff Projections: Indiana’s rise continues as Clemson bows out
What the 12-team bracket would look like
The bracket below is based on the selection committee’s expected rankings for November 5. Find my forecasts for the final bracket here.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; photos: Peter Joneleit, Michael Miller, Rich von Biberstein / Getty Images)
