Presidential candidate takes lead in six swing states, new polls show
The latest polls show that Kamala Harris received little to no support from the convention. Donald Trump has a better chance than the vice president in several important swing states.
A study by the Trafalgar Group of seven of the toughest contests (according to experts, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada) shows that Trump is either ahead or tied with Harris.
Trump holds a 47% to 45% lead over Harris in Pennsylvania and a 47% to 46% lead in Wisconsin, two states that turned red in 2016 when Trump won but turned red again in 2020 when he lost to Joe Biden.
Trafalgar’s survey, which is considered Republican by pollsters, also shows Harris nearly tied with Trump in Michigan, with the former president ahead 47% to 46.6%.
Michigan was another state Trump took from Hillary Clinton in 2016, before handing it to Biden four years later.
Latest polls show Kamala Harris received little to no support at the convention, leaving Donald Trump ahead in five crucial swing states for vice president
A Trafalgar Group study of seven of the toughest contests — considered by experts to be Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada — shows Trump either leading or even tying with Harris.
A separate study by Insider advantage Trump leads by one point in Arizona (49%-48%), Nevada (48%-47%) and North Carolina (49%-48%), while Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in Georgia.
Both campaigns are targeting independent and undecided voters in the seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Nevada voted Democratic in 2016 and 2020 and has the least influence on the Electoral College of all the battleground states, with just six votes.
In the 2016 race between Trump and Hillary Clinton, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin all voted Republican, with only Nevada going Republican.
But in the 2020 race between Trump and Joe Biden, five of the six states that had gone red in the previous election turned blue.
Only the southern state of North Carolina remained red.
Trump, Harris and their running mates — Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio and Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, respectively — are touring these swing states.
It’s a much-needed boost in the polls for Trump, who is still trailing in the polls. RealClearPolling an average of 1.8 points ahead of Harris.
Both campaigns — including Harris’ running mate Tim Walz — are targeting independents and undecided voters in the seven key swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump, Harris and their running mates – Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio (pictured) and Gov. Walz of Minnesota, respectively – are storming these battleground states
Harris has a 57% chance of winning in the FiveThirtyEight election model, while Nate Silver’s model also shows the vice president with a slight lead.
This follows news that the VP failed to make any gains in the polls following the Democratic National Party Convention.
Normally, the love affair of a political convention results in a stampede for the party’s candidate, but this year there was an exception for both the Republican and Democratic conventions.
According to the US presidential candidate, the chances for the vice president are now essentially the same as they were two weeks ago before the DNC in Chicago. a new ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday.
Harris has 50 percent of support among all adults and registered voters, compared to 46 percent who say they would vote for Trump if the election were held today.
Her lead is 2 percent, outside the poll’s margin of error. But that small lead has historically meant little to nothing for candidates’ actual chances of winning in November.
While the results are nearly identical to those before the DNC, the gender gap in preferences has widened, with women favoring Harris over Trump by 13 points, 54 percent versus 41 percent.
Before the convention, Harris had a 6-point lead among female voters and a 3-point lead among male voters, according to ABC polls.
It’s a much-needed boost in the polls for Trump, who still trails Harris by 1.8 points, according to the RealClearPolling average
This comes after news that the VP failed to get any boost in the polls after the Democratic National Convention
Trump now has a 5-point lead among men, 51 percent to 46 percent.
Like Harris, Trump did not experience the usual upswing after the RNC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin in July.
The stalled nature of the Trump-Harris battle is a sign of the gridlock in the highly polarized 2024 race as campaigns enter the final two months before Election Day.
Trump leads the pack in the top concerns voters have heading into the election, with an 8 percentage point increase in confidence in addressing the economy and rising inflation, and a 9 percentage point lead in handling immigration at the southern border.
The candidates’ running mates are head-to-head with just one percentage point of those who think they are ready to be president if need be. Walz has 50 percent confidence compared to the 49 percent Vance has earned.
But a quarter of respondents were not yet ready to give their opinion on Walz or Vance.
This week’s story appears to be largely a preview of the September 10 debate in Philadelphia between Trump and Harris, which was broadcast on ABC News.
Trump will join Sean Hannity at a Fox News event at the New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania on September 4.
