Putting NFC North dominance into context: Best division since realignment?

The NFL’s Thanksgiving schedule delivers three-quarters of what could be the most dominant division since the league realigned in 2002.

The 2024 NFC North is the first division since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to feature three teams with at least eight wins through Week 12, led by the 10-1 Detroit Lions, who tie an all-time NFL record for most wins in a season by at least 38 points (three, all outside the division).

With the Lions facing the division rival Chicago Bears (4-7) in the early game Thursday before the 8-3 Green Bay Packers play the late game against the Miami Dolphins of AFC East, the 2024 NFC North – which also includes the 9- 2 Minnesota Vikings – stands out. It could very well decide who takes home the Lombardi Trophy.

The Lions (+260), Packers (+750) and Vikings (+850) are among the top seven in Super Bowl odds, according to BetMGM, and among the top four in odds to win the NFC, along with the Philadelphia Eagles (+325). ). The Lions remain Super Bowl favorites, comfortably ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs (+450), while the NFC North has the smallest odds to produce the champion at +175, half of the second-place AFC West (+350).

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The chart below shows where all eight divisions have ranked each season since the league was realigned in 2002, in terms of points margin per match (X-axis) and winning percentage (Y-axis) in non-divisional matches during the first 12 weeks of each season. The 2024 NFC North (red dot) ranks first among these 184 division seasons in average point margin (+9.5) and second in winning percentage (.765), according to TruMedia.

Only the 2022 NFC East (26-7) had a better record than the 2024 NFC North (26-8) in non-division play through Week 12, but the current NFC North had a much better average point margin (+9 .5 to +5.1) in these games.

Here’s what you need to know about where the NFC North stands and what it needs to do to become the most dominant division over a full season since realignment.

1. The NFC North is by far the most dominant division this season.

The scheduling rotation (which we’ll explore later) is part of the equation, but this level of dominance is extreme.

AFC North teams lead the way in total wins over opponents who currently have winning records (11) and total non-division wins in these matches (nine). The NFC North is second with eight and six.

Since 2002, the NFC North’s +323 point margin through Week 12 ranks first by 64 points over the 2013 runner-up NFC West (+259). That’s bigger than the difference between the 2013 NFC West and the sixth division in that division. span, the 2011 NFC North (+200). The table below shows the only divisions since 2002 with PPG margins greater than 7.0 through Week 12, led by 2024 NFC North.

2. Strong defense was key to dominating the NFC North non-division schedule.

The 2024 NFC North ranks first among 184 divisions since 2002 in defensive EPA per game against non-division opponents, compared to a No. 69 in offensive EPA per game.

All four NFC North teams rank among the top 10 in the NFL in defensive EPA per play across all contests this season. They are all in the top five when isolating only non-division games. The Lions and Packers also rank among the top 10 in offense in all games and in non-division games.

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3. Dominating a weak AFC South is responsible for 61 percent of the NFC North’s +323 point differential in non-division games.

NFC North teams are 8-0 with a +144 differential against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. They are 14-2 with a differential of +197 against the entire AFC South. Bad teams get blown out. The NFC North has played its share of that.

Forty-five percent of the +323 difference in non-division games comes from facing the Jaguars and Titans, while 61 percent comes from facing the AFC South overall.

The six other divisions are a combined 9-9 against the AFC South, with a difference of +14. That includes a 6-7 mark with a differential of +21 for AFC East teams.

4. The NFC North has a 6-4 record against non-division opponents who had winning records through Week 12. Here’s a full accounting.

The Bears are the only NFC North team without a win over a team that currently has a winning record. They are 0-3 in those games, highlighted by their loss to Washington on a Hail Mary pass from Jayden Daniels. The rest of the NFC North has a 6-1 record in those games, with three wins over Houston, two over Arizona and one over Seattle.

NFC North’s record would be 6-3 if we adjusted the parameters to reflect non-division games against teams that had winning records at kickoff. Wins over Dallas, San Francisco and Tampa Bay would play a role.

5. NFC North teams will play 10 more games this season against non-division opponents. Here’s what the division needs to do to become the most dominant since 2002.

The NFL is moving most division games later in the season for competitive reasons. That leaves just 10 remaining non-division games for the NFC North to build on its dominance or drop in the rankings. These games are listed below chronologically and with point spreads compiled from various sources where available.

The 2013 NFC North holds the all-season record for PPG margin against non-division opponents since realignment (+359 in 40 games, for 8,975 per game). That division consisted of the 13-3 Super Bowl champion Seahawks, the Jim Harbaugh-coached 49ers (12-4), the Bruce Arians-coached Cardinals (10-6) and the 7-9 Rams.

NFC North teams must beat their 10 remaining non-division opponents by 72 points to beat the 2013 NFC West for the best full-season differential since 2002. That would give the division +395 in 44 games for a +8,977 PPG differential .

The best full-season record against non-league opponents since 2002 is shared by the 2013 NFC West and the 2007 NFC South at 30-10 (.750). The NFC North (currently .765 at 26-8) would match that mark with a 7-3 finish against non-division foes.

The top team in the NFC North (Detroit) will be at home against the division’s toughest remaining opponent (Buffalo). The recent improvement of the Seahawks’ defense could complicate Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay’s attempts to win in Seattle. The 49ers’ decline could help Chicago (Week 14) and Detroit (Week 17).

Green Bay and Minnesota can set the tone in Week 13. Both are favored at home against non-division opponents.

(Photo of Josh Jacobs, center, and three Lions defensemen: Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

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