QB Betrayal Index: Lamar Jackson Passes His Toughest Test; Justin Herbert finally gets a break

The Quarterback Betrayal Index is back, with a surprising new standard bearer: Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens quarterback has benefited from elite defense/special teams support for years, but not in 2024. His ability to overcome poor play in those areas during a 7-3 start improves his MVP credentials.

Introduced ahead of the 2022 NFL season, the Betrayal Index measures the extent to which quarterbacks overcome poor play by their own team’s defense/special teams, the part of the team they have no control over. It’s the context needed to discuss quarterbacks’ winning percentages.

An extreme example: Drew Brees won just 45 percent of his starts from 2014 to 2016 (21-26 record) despite New Orleans being ranked No. 1 in a range of offensive categories. The Saints’ historically poor defense/special teams betrayed Brees, resulting in the losing record.

The QB Betrayal Index through Week 10 of 2024 is especially interesting because two prominent quarterbacks, Jackson and Justin Herbert, have traded places.

Both led productive offenses in the past, but Jackson had the superior winning percentage (75 percent to 48 percent), largely because before this season his Ravens ranked second in the combined EPA for defensive/special teams during his career (since 2018 ), while Herbert’s Los Angeles Chargers ranked 31st during his stint (since 2020), according to TruMedia.

The big revelation this season is Jackson’s ability to keep winning (7-3 record, including 2-0 against the also-betrayed Joe Burrow) despite his Ravens ranking of 31st in the combined EPA for defense/special teams in 2024. Herbert’s Chargers are 6 -3 as they rank first in defensive/special teams EPA per game this season, with an offense that is statistically in the middle of the pack.

The table below lists all 34 quarterbacks with at least five starts this season, based on the difference between these players’ rankings in the QB EPA and their teams’ rankings in the Defense/Special Teams EPA during each QB’s starts.

Jackson, Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Jayden Daniels, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray are the best examples of quarterbacks betrayed this season. They all rank high in QB EPA for low-ranked defensive/special teams teams. Mid-ranked quarterbacks are about the same in QB EPA as their defensive/special teams counterparts. Quarterbacks at the bottom produce less for teams with stronger defenses/special teams.

The 34 quarterbacks have a combined record of 37-94 (.282) in starts this season as their teams finished with a negative combined EPA on defense/special teams. That includes 0-55 for a group of 16 quarterbacks headlined by Mayfield (0-6), Aaron Rodgers (0-5) and Burrow (0-4). It’s hard to win these games, but some quarterbacks – especially Jackson – have still managed to prevail.

We conclude with an examination of the seven most betrayed quarterbacks of this season, plus a closer look at Herbert and the Chargers’ drastic change.

The most betrayed

1. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

QB EPA 1st | Summer time 32nd | Betrayal Index: -31

WL: 7-3 (.700)

TD with negative team DST EPA: 5-3 (.625, 5th)

Jackson has shown an unusual ability to win what I call “extreme betrayal” games. He is 3-1 this season as the Ravens finished with -10 or worse EPA on defense/special teams. The other 33 quarterbacks listed here have a combined record of 5-45 (.100) in those games.

That’s the equivalent of winning three-quarters of the time after the opponent has seen 10 points. It’s not necessarily a fluke either.

Jackson has a career record of 7-6 in extreme betrayal games, making him the only quarterback since 2000 to start at least three of those games and have a winning record in them. Rich Gannon is next at 5-5.

Tom Brady (18-25), Peyton Manning (22-32) and Brees (27-54) have the best records since 2000 in these games among quarterbacks with at least 30 such starts. The league as a whole has won 15 percent of these matches.

The chart below shows Jackson’s cumulative EPA since he became the Ravens’ starter compared to Baltimore’s cumulative EPA on defense/special teams during that span, with the two moving in opposite directions since the start of this season.

2. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

QB EPA 5th | Summer time 31st | Betrayal Index: -26

WL: 4-6 (.400)

TD with negative team DST EPA: 0-4 (.000, T-18th)

Burrow is 0-4 in extreme betrayal games this season, but has 24 touchdown passes with four interceptions and a 108.1 rating. Cincinnati fell to Baltimore by scores of 41-38 and 35-34. There was also a 38-33 loss to Washington and a 37-17 loss to Philadelphia. Burrow was 4-7 in extreme betrayal games before this season. He plays there more now.

3. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB EPA 6th | Summer time 29th | Betrayal Index: -23

WL: 4-6 (.400)

TD with negative team DST EPA: 0-6 (.000, T-18th)

The Buccaneers are 4-0 when finishing with a positive EPA on defense/special teams, but 0-6 otherwise. That’s typically the mark of a win-by-quarterback team, as opposed to a win-by-QB. But with four of those defeats falling into the category of extreme betrayal, Mayfield deserves more praise. He has generally kept Tampa close in four extreme betrayal games, but the Buccaneers lost 36-30 and 31-26 to the Falcons, 30-24 to Kansas City and 41-31 to Baltimore in those hard-to-win games.

4. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

QB EPA 8th | Summer time 30th | Betrayal Index: -22

WL: 6-4 (.600)

TD with negative team DST EPA: 3-3 (.500, T-7th)

Two wins over Tampa Bay and another over Philadelphia in games where the Falcons’ defense/special teams faltered helped offset a tough opening week loss to Pittsburgh, when Cousins ​​and the offense struggled from a torn Achilles tendon.

5. Jayden Daniels, Washington commanders

QB EPA 3rd | Summer time 24th | Betrayal Index: -21

WL: 7-3 (.700)

TD with negative team DST EPA: 3-2 (.600, T-7th)

Daniels’ signature Betrayal Index play came at Burrow’s expense: 38-33 at Cincinnati in Week 3, capped by Daniels’ 27-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin on third-and-7 with 2:15 remaining in a game that left Washington by 31 -1 led. 26. That knocked out the Commanders, who also beat the Giants twice in games when Washington finished with a negative combined defensive/special teams EPA.

6. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

QB EPA 4th | Summer time 20th | Betrayal Index: -16

WL: 5-4 (.555)

TD with negative team DST EPA: 2-3 (.400, 10th)

Purdy’s continued production has been one of the few constants for the 49ers as they have worked through injuries on offense and inconsistent play on defense/special teams. He passed for 645 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions in the 49ers’ two extreme betrayal games this season. That was enough to beat Tampa Bay on Sunday. It wasn’t enough to beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, despite San Francisco leading by 10 points in the fourth quarter.

Purdy has an 8-6 record in betrayal games during his career, including 2-2 in extreme betrayal games (-10 or worse EPA for defense/special teams). Jimmy Garoppolo was 11-11 in betrayal games as a 49er. Previous starters Colin Kaepernick (3-22) and Alex Smith (6-22-1) did not fare well in those games for San Francisco.

T-7. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

QB EPA 9 | Summer time 23 | Betrayal Index: -14

WL: 6-4 (.600)

TD with negative team DST EPA: 3-3 (.500, T-7th)

The Cardinals have won and lost with Murray this season. They are 5-1 in games if he finishes with a positive EPA, but 1-3 otherwise. Murray won an extreme betrayal game, 28-27 over Miami. He is now 4-12 in his career in extreme betrayal games. Other Cardinals quarterbacks are 2-58 (.033) in those games since 2000, with Jake Plummer accounting for both wins (he was 2-14 in those games, while Hall of Famer Kurt Warner was 0-11 in those games for Arizona).

LA is doing well

T-25. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

QB EPA 14 | Summer time 1 | Betrayal Index: +13

WL: 6-3 (.667)

TD with negative team DST EPA: 1-2 (.333, T-11th)

In a change for the Chargers, their defense/special teams have done much more than their quarterback to win games this season. The team’s three losses came in games where the defense/special teams were either very good (+7.1 EPA in a 17-10 loss to Kansas City) or barely below average (-1.0 EPA in 20- 10 loss to Pittsburgh and in a 17-15 loss to Arizona).

The chart below compares Herbert’s cumulative EPA to the Chargers’ cumulative EPA on defense/special teams. The defense/special teams revival started late last season with games against bad offenses: New England in Week 13 and Denver in Week 14, right before Herbert went on injured reserve.

Herbert’s 5-10 (.333) record in extreme betrayal games is better than the 10-37 (.213) for Philip Rivers and the 3-12 (.200) for Drew Brees among Chargers quarterbacks since 2000.

(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

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