Ranking 134 college football teams after Week 10: The Boise State scenario you shouldn’t sleep on
Editor’s Note: The Athletic 134 is a weekly ranking of all FBS college football teams.
Ahead of the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 12-team era, there are no shortage of questions about what the selection committee’s first projected bracket will look like. But a piece of conventional wisdom involving the Group of Five could be turned on its head by Boise State.
The Power 4 conference champions are not guaranteed the four first-round byes, and the Group of 5 automatic bid, reserved for the highest-ranked champion from those leagues, is not guaranteed from No. 12, even though its most forecasts do not address this. . A 12-1 Mountain West champion Boise State could land higher than 12 and earn the No. 4 seed, depending on who wins the Big 12.
After a week that saw many ranked teams fall, Boise State is ranked No. 12 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 134. That’s not No. 12 as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion. That’s number 12 overall.
Boise State deserves a real look, and I’m curious to see what the committee will do. Historically, the committee has placed G5 teams lower in their rankings than in the polls, often because they have not had Top 25 wins. But the Broncos’ situation is different. They have a 45-24 win against a Washington State team ranked in both polls (and No. 21 here) and a win against a UNLV team receiving votes. Boise State’s only loss was to Oregon on a field goal as time expired. That’s the biggest loss of anyone in the country.
The Broncos aren’t just the Ashton Jeanty show. Teams have loaded the box over the past two weeks to keep their Heisman Trophy candidate from running back, but quarterback Maddux Madsen completed 24 of 32 passes for 307 yards and four touchdowns against San Diego State. The Boise State defense leads the nation in sacks per game.
If BYU, the Big 12’s last remaining undefeated team, loses a game or fails to win the conference, Boise State could realistically finish ahead of the Big 12 champion and what would likely be the No. 4 seed. Or at least that seems possible. We will see what the committee thinks on Tuesday.
Here’s this week’s edition of The Athletic 134.
GO DEEPER
Mandel’s final thoughts: Amid big changes, Penn State’s loss to Ohio State remains the same
1-10
Ohio State’s win over Penn State moves the Buckeyes up to No. 3, ahead of Miami, as the Buckeyes’ best win is much better than the Canes’ and they were one game removed from their loss to No. 1 Oregon. The only top-40 teams Miami has played are No. 22 Louisville and No. 39 Duke.
Penn State drops to No. 8 with its loss. The Nittany Lions and No. 7 Tennessee are separated by a razor-thin margin. The Vols have a much better win (Alabama) and a much worse loss (Arkansas). Penn State played closely with USC and Wisconsin, while Tennessee played closely with Florida, Oklahoma and Kentucky. In the end, I’m going for the better win, and it’s Tennessee by a whisker.
GO DEEPER
PSU remains Ohio State’s big silver bullet and Ryan Day can breathe again
11-25
SMU rises from No. 19 to No. 11 after a 48-25 demolition of Pitt that was only so close due to some bad time scoring. The Mustangs are 8-1 with wins against currently ranked Pitt and Louisville teams, and the only loss was a three-point defeat to undefeated BYU while SMU was in the middle of a quarterback change. The Mustangs control their fate for the ACC title game and CFP. Don’t sleep on it.
Texas A&M falls to No. 14 after a 44-20 loss to South Carolina, but remains ahead of LSU due to last week’s win against the Tigers, and LSU remains ahead of No. 16 Ole Miss due to their head-to-head result. An Ole Miss win against Georgia this week could shake things up, while the LSU-Alabama winner could see himself vault into a big spot.
Likewise, Kansas State only drops to No. 18 after its loss to Houston because of its win over Colorado. And Clemson is barely hanging on at No. 25 after its home loss to Louisville. The Tigers dominated their opponents between their two multi-score losses to Georgia and Louisville, but there isn’t a win on Clemson’s resume that says it should be higher.
GO DEEPER
College Football Playoff Lessons from Week 10: Big 12 shakeups and SEC punt games
26-50
No. 26 South Carolina has a strange resume. It beat Texas A&M and nearly beat Alabama, but also got blown out by Ole Miss and needed a late comeback to beat Old Dominion. Army continues to move into the top 25 after a win against Air Force. The Black Knights still haven’t trailed all season, but they haven’t played a team with a winning record yet. Their next two games, against North Texas and Notre Dame, will change that.
Texas Tech jumps to No. 31 after beating previously undefeated Iowa State, and moving to 6-2 at Arizona State also helps the Red Raiders thanks to their win over the Sun Devils. Minnesota looks much better and is ranked No. 36 after beating Illinois, but the Gophers trail Michigan due to head-to-head standings.
Louisiana doesn’t get much CFP talk, but the Cajuns are now 7-1 after winning at Texas State. Keep an eye on them in the Sun Belt. Navy and Memphis fall to Nos. 40 and 41 after tough losses to Rice and UTSA, respectively. Baylor rises from No. 69 to No. 44 after a walk-off win against TCU, giving the Bears three straight wins.
GO DEEPER
AP Top 25: Oregon unanimously ranked No. 1 ahead of first CFP rankings
51-75
Florida only drops to No. 51 after battling Georgia in the fourth quarter with a third-string quarterback, but DJ Lagway’s injury doesn’t bode well for the final stretch. USC falls to No. 57 after a fifth one-score loss, this time to Washington. There is no trophy for ‘best 4-5 team’, but there probably is USC or Michigan State.
Houston, once one of the lowest-ranked Power 4 teams, is ranked No. 64 after a comeback win against Kansas State. Willie Fritz does what he does, and a bowl game isn’t out of the question. UConn will be eligible to bowl after beating Georgia State and could get eight or nine wins.
GO DEEPER
Can Florida judge Billy Napier fairly now that DJ Laway is injured?
76-100
UCLA, winners of two straight games, rises to No. 76, while Oklahoma State has lost six in a row after a 3-0 start and falls to No. 79. Arizona, losers of five straight games, has fallen to No. 80. ULM’s second consecutive loss, this time to Marshall, drops the Warhawks to No. 76. Fresno State drops to No. 77 after a home loss to Hawaii.
Jacksonville State moves up to No. 82 after beating Liberty, while Colorado State climbs to No. 83 thanks to four straight wins. Mississippi State’s win against UMass barely keeps it in the top 100.
101-134
No. No. 102 Florida State and No. 103 Purdue are the first Power 4 teams to fall out of the top 100 this year. What’s left to say about the Seminoles after losing 35-11 to North Carolina to fall to 1-8 and finish 1-7 in ACC play? No. No. 105 Rice and No. 106 UTSA are rising after their wins against Navy and Memphis, respectively.
Troy earned a big win against Coastal Carolina to move up to No. 121, while No. 122 Wyoming bounced back with a win against New Mexico in a 49-45 shootout. Kent State, the last winless team of the season, was off this week but will play Ohio on Wednesday when November’s MACtion begins.
The Athletic 134 series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories prior to publication.
(Photo: Loren Orr/Getty Images)
