Reformer reaches second round of Iran presidential election

A reformist candidate critical of an Iranian law requiring women to wear headscarves will face a hard-line conservative in the country’s second election for president next week, state media said on Saturday, following a special vote after the previous leader was murdered. last month in a helicopter crash.

A second round of voting, pitting reformist Masoud Pezeshkian against Saeed Jalili, an ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator, will take place on July 5. The runoff was partly the result of low turnout and a crowded field of four candidates, three of whom were vying for the conservative vote. Iranian law requires that a winner receive more than 50 percent of all votes cast.

Participation in a new round of voting will sap the energy of an already apathetic electorate, dissatisfied with its leaders at a time of international and domestic turmoil. Iran’s economy is reeling under punishing Western sanctions, its citizens’ freedoms are increasingly curtailed, and its foreign policy is largely determined by hardline leaders.

The campaign, which initially included six candidates — five conservatives and one reformer — was notable for the candor with which these issues were discussed and the public’s willingness to challenge the status quo. In speeches, televised debates and roundtable discussions, the candidates criticized government policies and ridiculed rosy official assessments of Iran’s economic prospects as damaging delusions.

Public dissatisfaction with the new president’s ability to bring about change was reflected in the low turnout at the election, with only 40 percent of eligible voters casting ballots, according to Iran’s state news agency.

In the official results announced On Saturday, Dr. Pezeshkian led with 10.4 million votes (42.4 percent), followed by Mr. Jalili with 9.4 million (38.6 percent). A third conservative candidate, General Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, the current speaker of parliament and former mayor of Tehran, was a distant third with 3.3 million (13.8 percent).

The low numbers will be a blow to the country’s ruling clerics, who have made voter participation a sign of the election’s perceived legitimacy and hoped to achieve a 50 percent turnout.

In addition to domestic pressure, Iranian leaders are also facing a particularly volatile time in the region: Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas, an Iranian-backed militant group, and an escalation in clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have turned two Iranian proxy forces against Israel’s sworn enemy.

Despite the campaign’s critical rhetoric, the candidates were all members of Iran’s political establishment, approved by a committee of Islamic clerics and jurists. All but one were considered conservatives close to the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Mr Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, is probably the candidate closest to Mr Khamenei. He heads the far-right Paydari party and represents the country’s most hardline ideological positions when it comes to domestic and foreign policy. Mr. Jalili has said he believes Iran does not need to negotiate with the United States for economic success.

Dr. Pezeshkian is a heart surgeon and veteran of the Iran-Iraq War. He served in parliament and as Minister of Health of Iran. After his wife and child died in a car accident, he raised his other children as a single father and never remarried. This and his identity as an Azeri, one of Iran’s ethnic minorities, has endeared him to many voters.

Dr. Pezeshkian was backed by former President Mohammad Khatami and has shown openness to nuclear negotiations with the West, framing the debate as an economic issue. But with the conservative vote no longer split among multiple candidates, his path to the presidency could become more complicated in the head-to-head runoff.

By stacking the deck to boost the chances of a conservative victory, Mr Khamenei signalled his desire for a second in command whose views mirrored his own and who would continue the agenda of Ebrahim Raisi, the hardline president who was assassinated last month in a helicopter crash near the border with Azerbaijan.

The low voter turnout reflected widespread apathy among Iranians, who again voted in record numbers in parliamentary elections this year. That frustration has been compounded by the government’s violent crackdown on protesters demanding change and its inadequate response to the toll decades of sanctions have taken on the country’s economy, which has eroded Iranians’ purchasing power.

The most recent anti-government protests – and subsequent crackdown – were largely prompted by the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, who died in police custody after being arrested for improperly wearing her mandatory headscarf, or hijab.

In a nod to the unpopularity of the hijab law, the candidates all sought to distance themselves from the country’s methods of enforcing the morality law, including violence, arrests and fines.

While the headscarf mandate became a campaign issue, it is unlikely the law will be repealed and it is doubtful whether a new president can soften its enforcement. The protests, largely organized by women, led to a bloody crackdown ordered by Mr. Khamenei, and any new president is expected to enforce his policy, analysts said.

That is largely because Iran is a theocracy with parallel systems of governance in which elected bodies are controlled by appointed councils made up of Islamic clerics and jurists. Major state policies on nuclear energy, military affairs and foreign affairs are determined by the country’s Supreme Leader, Mr. Khamenei.

The president’s role is focused on domestic policy and economic affairs, but it is still an influential position. Previous presidents have played an active role in foreign policy, including a 2015 deal with the United States in which Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program in exchange for easing sanctions.

That deal was thwarted by the Trump administration in 2018 and Iran has resumed enriching uranium. In addition to tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program, the United States and Iran have moved closer to direct confrontation in the past year as they vie for influence in the Middle East.

In Gaza, the war between Israel, a U.S. ally, and Hamas has brought the United States, Iran, and Iran’s foreign allies into closer conflict. Iran sees the use of these groups as a way to extend its power, but many citizens, especially in the cities, see little value in their leaders’ strategy and believe that the economy can only recover through sustained diplomacy.

Leily Nikounazar contributed report.