The Tampa Bay Rays are giving a clinic on how to sell. And bless their money-saving, prospect-loving hearts, they’re not done yet.
The scoreboard after Tampa Bay’s latest surprise, the transfer of Issac Paredes to the Chicago Cubs on Sunday:
- Six deals (Paredes, Jason Adam and Zach Eflin; Randy Arozarena, Phil Maton and Aaron Civale).
- A savings of about $12 million in 2024, additional millions in seven future years of arbitration and Eflin’s $18 million salary for 2025.
- Fourteen prospects were added, including two players yet to be named. Nine of those players landed in the team’s top 30, between Nos. 5 and 29, according to MLBPipeline.com.
There’s no need to worry about the Rays picking a job, not with a team that’s spent most of the season hovering around .500 in the mighty AL East. Club officials drove straight into a seller’s market while other clubs sat idle and took the field.
If you’re on the ever-shrinking list of Rays making millions — hello, right-hander Zack Littell , closer Pete Fairbanks , first baseman Yandy Díaz and second baseman Brandon Lowe — you probably shouldn’t get too comfortable. The team’s two potential free agents, reliever Shawn Armstrong and infielder/outfielder Amed Rosario , seem all but certain to go.
The Rays aren’t completely in retreat, however. Two additions from the Paredes deal, Christopher Morel and right-hander Hunter Bigge, are expected to join the major-league club immediately. Other deals opened up spots for less experienced players, including right-hander Shane Baz and reliever Manuel Rodríguez. Top prospect Junior Caminero is expected to replace Paredes at third base. The 2025 rotation, which could include a combination of Baz, Littell and Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen, looks formidable.
Christopher Morel should immediately be named to the Rays’ Major League roster. (Mitch Stringer/USA Today)
Still, the Rays do what they do, leveraging their assets, removing emotion from their decision-making, replacing older, more expensive talent with younger, cheaper ones. The formula works, as evidenced by their six straight winning seasons and 12 of their last 16. But club executives operate with a freedom not afforded their counterparts in larger markets. Teams with better attendance and more media attention would deserve scrutiny if they attempted such a dismantling.
Even after all their deals, the Rays are two games above .500 and just 3 1/2 games back in the American League wild-card standings. Their playoff odds entering Sunday, 14.1 percent, weren’t all that different from those of the Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants. But none of those teams were willing to make such a dramatic downshift, if ever.
Perhaps president of baseball operations Erik Neander and his staff are in the process of assembling the Next Great Rays Team; history suggests that betting against them would be unwise. But Sunday’s trades in particular are far from guaranteed success, at least in the eyes of some in the industry who spoke on condition of anonymity for candor.
Dylan Lesko, the centerpiece of the Padres’ return for Adam, was the 15th overall pick in the 2022 draft out of Buford (Ga.) High School. But after Tommy John surgery, he has issued 74 walks in 102 2/3 professional innings, prompting one rival executive to marvel at Padres general manager A.J. Preller’s ability to move him for significant value.
The Rays, who excel at developing pitching, surely believe they can fix Lesko. But sometimes their magic dust only goes so far. In December 2020, they acquired another talented young pitcher from the Padres, Luis Patiño, in the Blake Snell trade. Patiño didn’t pan out, went to the Chicago White Sox and then back to the Padres. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May.
Another prospect in the Adam trade, outfielder Homer Bush Jr., needs to prove he can hit. The third catcher, J.D. Gonzalez, an 18-year-old at a position where the Rays have historically been weak, is a worthwhile gamble.
The Paredes trade is, if anything, even more intriguing than the Adam deal. Morel’s projected batting average of .242 and slugging percentage of .451 are far better than his actual .199 and .374, likely making him an outlier in Tampa Bay’s analytical model. His four more years of club control, one more than the Cubs inherited with Paredes, add to his appeal. But the Rays, like the Cubs, will have to give Morel a position. His best defensive stats are at second base and in left field.
Rival officials see Bigge, 26, as a worthy replacement for Adam in high-leverage situations, with one calling him a “real weapon.” The third player in the deal, right-hander Ty Johnson, was a 2023 15th-round pick. He performed well in A-ball this season and is the type of pitcher the Rays believe can develop into a starter.
As with all prospect trades, the usual caveat applies: “Check back in five years.” But say this about the Rays: They will never be accused of indecisiveness. The lack of salespeople and limited talent on this year’s trade market screamed for a mediocre team to step into the void. The Rays became that team. And they still have time to do more.
(Top photo of Isaac Paredes: David Berding/Getty Images)
