Russian armed forces have cut bases and built military infrastructure near the Finnish border, according to recent satellite images, in movements that could reveal their strategy for what happens after the Ukrainian war.
The images, confirmed by NATO officials, shows new tents after row; New warehouses that can store military vehicles; Renovations on fighter jugs; And steady construction activity on a helicopter base that had usually been unused and overgrown.
So far, the movements seem to be the early stages of a greater expansion in the longer term, and NATO officials say that this is nothing like the build-up along the Ukraine border before the full invasion of Russia is in 2022. For the time being, Russia is, but that is much of a threat.
But Finland is one of the newest members of NATO, who becomes a member two years ago, and the movements undoubtedly reflect Moscow’s own perception of a threat: this 830 Mile limit is now the longest contact line of the Western Alliance with Russia. Military analysts predict that it could be a hotspot, especially with much of it in the ever -disputed polar circle.
American and Finnish troops recently held An extensive arctic war game In this region, with hundreds of troops running around the forest and the Finns who zip through the trees on cross -country ski. The supposed enemy? Russia.
Finnish defense officials predict that if the phase of the high intensity of the Ukraine war ends from the goals of The wrestling peace efforts that unfold in Turkey – Russia will re -use thousands of troops for the Finnish border.
The Finns think that they have about five years before Russia can build up his armed forces into threatening levels. But they are convinced that it will happen and that the number of Russian troops they are confronted will triple.
“We will talk about so many higher troop levels,” said Brig. Gene. Pekka Turunen, the director of the Finnish Defense Intentions.
From the perspective of Moscow, the Russians must strengthen their defense to protect themselves against the expansion of NATO, which has always been a painful subject. The Baltic countries were the first members of the former Soviet Union who joined NATO, making large pieces of Russian border against NATOs. The prospect of Ukraine, an even larger former Soviet republic, who followed the example, was so threatening to Moscow that it became one of the causes of the most devastating land war in generations.
“The Russian army has undergone a considerable expansion of forces,” says Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. “After the war, the basic force will probably increase than before 2022. Looking at the planned restructuring of military districts, it seems clear that they give priority to areas with which NATO is confronted.”
NATO officials agree.
When the Ukraine war ends, a high NATO officer said, Russia would continue to rearrange troops to the north.
Russia believes that the Arctic area and access in the North Pole area is a key to great power status, the civil servant said, talking about the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject.
According to satellite images, Russian helicopters returned to a base near Murmansk, a port city in the Arctic Circle, after they had not been there for two decades.
Since Ukrainian drones focus on airports in Russia, Russian command has moved assets to the north to get out of reach. This has brought them much closer to NATO territory.
Dozens of Russian war aircraft were recently seen on the Olenya Air Base, also in the North Pole area and less than 100 miles from the Finnish border, according to the satellite images. Other recent activities include more than a hundred new tents that appeared in Kamenka about a year ago, a Russian basis on less than 40 miles from Finland.
“They extend their brigades to divisions, which means that the units near our borders will grow considerably – with thousands,” said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Black Bird Group, a Finnish organization that analyzes the military developments in the north and in Ukraine.
Mr Kastehelmi, who analyzed dozens of recent images for the New York Times, said that in the coming years, enormous changes could bring to the Finnish border, depending on how and when the war ends in Ukraine.
In Alakurtti, which is also close to Finland, and Petrozavodsk, a little further away, the Russians have new buildings that can house at least dozens of vehicles. The activity has also increased elsewhere. New tents and military equipment recently appeared on a base, about 80 miles from Estonia.
The Finns have an old expression: Russia is never as strong as it seems and never as weak as it seems. So Finnish defenders have actually been characteristic about the structure.
“The increase in military force in our nearby areas will take place after the fighting in Ukraine,” said Janne Kuusela, director of the defense policy at the Finnish Ministry of Defense.
How long that will take, he said, he doesn’t know.
But he added: “We must be prepared for that.”
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