SARAH VINE: We Brits don’t do revolutions but this election will be as close to one as we’ll get. And the Tories are the aristocratic ruling class totally unprepared for what’s about to engulf them…

When Boris Johnson came in support of Brexit in 2016 this resulted in a boost to the Leave campaign.

It grew into a fringe group led by a bunch of slightly grumpy Eurosceptic nerds (chief among them). Dominic Cummings) into a powerful political force, led by a charismatic, albeit controversial, figure.

David Cameron‘s inability (or unwillingness) to recognize the change in play or take the challenge seriously ultimately led to his downfall.

And now the same thing is about to happen to another Conservative Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak.

Nigel FarageThis week’s ‘Boris’ moment, in which he took over from Richard Tice as leader of Reform UK and announced his intention to stand as MP for Clacton, is likely to radically change the course of this election.

Like Boris, he had initially been unsure about throwing his hat into the ring, but he changed his mind (after a trip to the pub, of course) and said he felt “terrible guilt” for not putting himself forward and He urged the good people of Clacton to ‘send me to Parliament to be a bloody nuisance’.

Then a woman in a tracksuit named Victoria threw a milkshake on him. A beautiful piece of theater there, which will only have delighted his supporters. And Farage certainly knows how to play the political stage.

There’s something about his outspoken, cheeky guy, Del Boy character that cuts right through all the artifice and artifice of Westminster politics.

Listen to Sarah Vine on the latest episode of The Reaction

Nigel Farage was greeted by crowds of admirers and supporters today as he launched his bid to become MP for Clacton in the seaside town of Essex…

…including this woman who became very close to him

And in a world where the voting public is thoroughly fed up with a slippery political class that seems more concerned with its own internal struggles than with getting things done, that’s electoral catnip.

If Rishi Sunak is a fasting-vegan teetotaler-smoking ban politician, Farage is a force of nature of meat and two veg, extra-hot English mustard, a pint-of-Chablis-and-a-pack of fags.

I’ve shared a TV studio or two with him over the years, and his presence fills a room like the smell of testosterone on game day. If he were an aftershave he’d be Old Spice, if he were an animal he’d be a Jack Russell terrier, if he were a car he’d be a 1996 Ford Cosworth with tobacco-yellowed seats.

Love him or hate him, he refreshes the sections of the voting public that other politicians – not just Sunak, with his wholesome head-boy vibe, but also Keir ‘what is a woman?’ Starmer and Ed ‘pratfalls’ Davey – they just can’t get it.

And if the Conservatives had even an ounce of political self-awareness, they would have worked hard behind the scenes in recent years, moving heaven and earth to get him, if not exactly in the tent (he’s a tough dog to fill hold). any political veranda except his own) and at least on the same side of the field.

Instead, they dismissed him in much the same condescending manner as the American Left Donald Trump over the years.

When Hillary Clinton called him and his supporters “a basket full of deplorables” in the 2016 US election, and she thought she would shame voters into abandoning him. Instead, her words had the opposite effect: They created a sense of resentment toward an entitled political elite that only entrenched Trump’s core support.

The Conservative leadershipThe long-standing disdain for Farage has had a similar effect. He is often compared to Trump, and for good reason. The pair are friends (if anyone is ever friends in this industry), and both are outspoken political shock jocks who enjoy saying the unspeakable.

Their political capital is derived from their ability to undermine and subvert the moderate mainstream, and to act as a magnet for the politically dispossessed, whose numbers have grown steadily over the past decade.

These are the voters who have been traditional parties to lose – especially the Conservatives, but also Labor – in their refusal to acknowledge and tackle some of the more uncomfortable issues facing Britain, particularly rising immigration and its cultural and socio-economic consequences.

While everyone else is tying themselves in knots, Farage is not afraid to offend. He keeps his message simple and to the point and does not allow himself to be misled. And it’s working, especially among disillusioned conservatives.

Nigel Farage was today drenched in milkshake thrown by a woman while on campaign in Clacton, Essex

The leader of Reform UK has wiped himself out…

…before later making light of the milkshake incident

This is evident from the latest YouGov polls21 percent of those who gave Boris Johnson a stunning Tory majority in 2019 now say they will vote for reform. And that was BEFORE Farage made his big move.

Not only are the Conservatives in trouble (yesterday another poll predicted that Labor was on course for the biggest victory in history, with the Conservatives winning just 140 seats), they are fighting for their political survival.

It’s looking more and more like they won’t so much get a nosebleed on July 4, but they’ll be eating hospital food for quite a while.

Farage’s intervention is crucial for this. Had he stayed out of the fray, many right-wing voters might have swallowed hard and voted conservative for lack of an alternative.

But now that Farage is in the game, that all changes. Conservative voters who believe that the party in its current form no longer represents their interests will place their trust in him.

Meanwhile, left-leaning The Tories will turn towards the Liberal Democrats, especially in the so-called ‘blue wall’ seats, under the misconception that they are not as left-wing as Labour.

And so the right and left of the party will effectively divide the conservative vote swallowing himself up in the process – and, ironically, handing Starmer an even bigger victory.

A few months ago I wrote in the pages of this newspaper what the Conservatives could find a cure for cancer, and they still wouldn’t win the next election. I’m afraid nothing has changed.

Voters are tired, not only of themselves, but also of traditional politics, which many say simply doesn’t work. They want change, for change’s sake as much as anything else.

The British don’t really like revolutions, but I think this election will be as close to one as we’ve ever had. And the Conservative party finds itself in the unfortunate role of the aristocratic ruling class, completely unprepared for what is about to engulf them.

For what it’s worth, I believe the rot really started during the pandemic. Nothing to do with Partygate – that was irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. No, it was the fact that the measures imposed by Covid threatened an important core value of British conservatism: the freedom of the individual.

For me at least, that has always been the clear dividing line between Labor and the Conservatives: the former believe in the state, the latter in the individual.

Boris understood this and that is why he opposed the lockdown so hard in the early days of the pandemic. But in the end he lost that battle, and then the state machine intervened. Everything was about supporting that machine, from supporting the NHS to funding furlough to betraying friends and neighbors.

Individual freedoms were restricted with an almost sinister glee. Small businesses collapsed, the self-employed suffered. Anyone who objected or had a dissenting opinion was treated with contempt. Any deviation from the norm was frowned upon. In other words: socialism.

If you’re going to end up living in a socialist country, you might as well leave it to the experts to run it. You might as well have the real thing. What we will do on the 4th of July.

If the Conservative Party is to rebuild after this, it needs a complete cultural reset, a new leader who can clearly and unapologetically state its core values. defend them as faithfully and tirelessly while Farage defends his.

It will not be an easy task, but in some ways the predicted Conservative carnage may even make it easier.

Internal Tory divisions have contributed significantly to the party’s failure in recent years and its loss of stature in the eyes of the public. With many of those responsible resigning or at risk of losing their seats, enforcing strict discipline within the ranks for a new leader should in theory be feasible.

The question is: who has the courage for the fight?

Now listen to the response

Sara Vine And Andrew Pierce bring their own limitless opinions, insights and reactions (the clue is in the title) to the biggest stories of the week. New episodes every Wednesday.

The Reaction with Sarah Vine & Andrew Pierce, now available as a podcast or on YouTube