Social Security COLA Forecasts for 2025: Here’s How Much More Money You Could Get
For the millions of Americans currently receiving Social Security benefits, the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) isn’t just about how much more they’ll get in their monthly checks. It’s also about whether the increase will help them afford their daily necessities. Each year, usually in October, the Social Security Administration adjusts recipients’ monthly payments to account for inflation.
Although the official COLA will be announced next month, experts who follow inflation trends from month to month can make fairly accurate predictions about what the adjustment will look like for 2025. The latest forecasts point to a lower increase than in 2024.
Below you’ll find the latest expert predictions through September 2024, along with past COLAs for reference. For more, don’t miss our Social Security and SSDI cheat sheet, and the Medicare changes you can expect in 2025.
What is the Social Security COLA?
To keep up with the effects of inflation, Social Security recipients typically receive an annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, with their January checks. The adjustment is based on the average change over time in the prices paid for consumer goods and services and is determined by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Social Security Administration sets the COLA in the third quarter of each year.
Which government benefits are adjusted using COLA?
Social Security isn’t the only government benefit affected by the COLA. Social Security Disability Insurance, Supplemental Security Income, Medicare, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (including food stamps and other programs) all use the COLA to account for inflation when setting benefits.
How high could the COLA increase be in 2025?
COLA for 2024 is 3.2%. Looking ahead, the Senior Citizens Association — an independent advocacy group for seniors — after looking at this year’s monthly inflation trends COLA will be 2.5% for 2025This is slightly lower than August forecast of 2.57%A 2.5% COLA increase would bring the average monthly benefit to $1,968, an increase of $48.
The League points out that while 2.5% is lower than last year’s 3.2%, the increase is not far from the historical norm and that the COLA has averaged around 2.6% over the past 20 years.
The adjustment is being closely watched by seniors, as the annual COLA change is designed to help them keep up with rising costs. And while the annual COLA increase has been as high as 8.7% in recent years, some say that’s not enough to cover inflation. According to a survey by the Senior Citizens League69% of respondents said their household expenses rose faster than the COLA last year, with food and housing costs being the highest.
COLA increases year on year
| Year | Increase compared to last year |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2020 | 1.6% |
Note: The Social Security Administration typically announces the adjustment in the second week of October. The new rate goes into effect the following January.
Please note that these are estimates and can change each month based on the previous month’s inflation. While they are usually somewhat in line with the official rate, they are not always accurate.
For more information, read why SSI recipients aren’t getting benefits this month and what to do if you received too much monthly benefit.
