The race to replace George Santos echoes national issues

The war in Israel. Abortion rights. Immigration policy.

National issues dominated the special election for the House of Representatives to replace George Santos in New York, as Republicans and Democrats polled voters on issues that could tilt November's general election.

The race pits Tom Suozzi, a former Democratic congressman who represented the swing district of Queens and Long Island for three terms, against Mazi Pilip, an Ethiopian-born local lawmaker. The open seat was created after the House of Representatives voted to expel Mr. Santos, a Republican who faces federal criminal charges.

The February 13 election carries unusual weight: a Democratic victory would reduce the Republicans' barely controllable majority in the House of Representatives to just two votes.

Here's what you need to know about the race.

A well-known veteran versus a party machine

After decades in power, Mr. Suozzi is one of the most recognizable and beloved figures on Long Island, but his party is deeply unpopular.

Ms. Pilip has a powerful local Republican machine behind her, but voters know very little about her.

These reverse challenges shape the way both candidates campaign.

Mr. Suozzi has spent valuable time and advertising dollars trying to separate himself from the Democratic brand. He has opposed his party's position on local criminal laws and taxes, has called for tightening border security, and his television ads (which air on Fox News) never mention his party affiliation — a gamble in a race where he needs grassroots Democrats has to come up.

Mrs. Pilip runs just as fast to her party. She has not appeared in public without better-known local Republicans, and has been willing to tolerate the criticism that comes from dodging televised debates and other unscripted moments that could trip her up as a new candidate.

That strategy could backfire, especially as voters are reluctant to elect another Santos-like candidate. But unlike Mr Suozzi, Ms Pilip has a powerful and effective party apparatus on which to lean. Republicans have won nearly every major election on Long Island since 2021, and their turnout could be crucial in a midwinter election.

“Being a special election, ground play means a lot,” said Peter T. King, a popular former Republican congressman. “There is no organization like this in the country right now.”

Republicans have made fears about immigration a centerpiece of their campaigns for years. But at a time when record numbers of migrants are crossing the southwest border, the issue is especially urgent.

Unlike the immigration wave of the past, this one has had a major impact on New York. More than 150,000 asylum seekers have come to the city seeking shelter, taking away billions of dollars in public funds that Mayor Eric Adams has threatened to cut from other social services. Polls show suburban voters are outraged.

Republicans want them to blame Mr. Suozzi. They covered the neighborhood with it ads he claims he voted to weaken border security and recycle clips showing him bragging about “kicking ICE out of Nassau County,” a reference to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Glossy mailers call him “Sanctuary City” Suozzi.

The approach mirrors a successful strategy Republicans used to dominate Long Island in the 2022 midterm elections, when they were able to blame Democrats for another complex, bipartisan problem: crime.

Mr Suozzi clearly feels the pressure. But unlike other members of his party, he does not shy away from the issue. He cuts its own ad with a 2018 segment from Fox News praising ICE, and has repeatedly referenced a 2019 essay written with Mr. King proposing a “grand compromise on immigration.”

When Ms. Pilip recently held an event outside a migrant shelter in the Queens section of the borough, Mr. Suozzi showed up to try to flip the script — blaming Republicans for scuttling a potential bipartisan border security deal in Washington.

Will abortion rights matter?

Democrats are turning to their familiar playbook on abortion rights in an effort to sour moderate women against Ms. Pilip.

“Pilip is part of the extreme wing of the Republican Party that wants to take away your rights and benefits,” says the narrator of one ominous ad of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee warns.

The issue is not high on the list of electoral priorities of voters in New York, where the right to abortion is considered safe. But Democrats believe the data is misleading, especially among the district's affluent suburban voters.

“The pollsters have not learned the lesson of missing the impact of abortion on voting patterns in 2022,” said Bruce Gyory, a longtime Democratic strategist. “When it comes to voting, pro-choice women will not support a candidate who they believe is not dependent on the abortion issue.”

Ms Pilip's haste to defend her position underlines this point. Although she has said that as a mother of seven children she personally opposes abortion and accepts the Conservative Party's support against abortion, she insists she would vote against a federal ban on the procedure. (She has declined questions from journalists seeking more details about her position.)

“Protecting women's rights and social security are my top priorities,” she said a recent video.

A post-October. 7 test for Jewish voters

The fallout from Israel's deadly war with Hamas has upended the political landscape for American Jews. The race, in one of the most Jewish congressional districts in the country, may show just how much.

Ms Pilip's allies believe she is the ideal candidate for this moment. An Orthodox Jew, she moved to Israel as a refugee and served in the Israeli army. She first ran for office in New York to combat anti-Semitism and was a supporter of Israel's war effort.

These positions are expected to lead to high turnout in Great Neck, Ms. Pilip's home base, where thousands of Persian and Orthodox Jews have moved sharply to the right. But political strategists are also looking at whether she can select more religiously moderate Jewish voters who have historically voted Democratic but fear the party's commitment to Israel is waning.

“There is a simmering frustration in the Democratic Party,” said Jon Kaiman, a former Democratic official who saw some Jewish voters swing hard against his campaign for North Hempstead city supervisor last November. “I'd go to a train station and hear, 'Sorry, it's not personal. I can't vote for a Democrat. ''

Mr. Kaiman is now working with Mr. Suozzi to reassure voters that he is a staunch ally of Israel who will fight back against left-wing Democrats who are pushing to impose conditions on U.S. military aid.

The stakes are so high that Mr. Suozzi made a last-minute trip to Israel just before Christmas to meet the families of Israeli hostages. Him too advertisements shown He said he would impose “no conditions” on US aid to Israel.

There would be no special elections without Mr. Santos and his spectacular downfall. But its shadow over the elections has remained surprisingly limited.

Democrats hope that the anger he has bottled up during his year in power will continue to push their voters to the polls and depress Republican turnout.

But two months after his ouster, Santos appears to be a rapidly declining political force.

His face has fallen billboards who once saw the neighborhood. Neither campaign has used him in paid advertising. And voters seem unmoved by photos of Ms. Pilip hugging him in 2022 (she has since denounced him).

The disinterest is mutual. Speaking to reporters outside a courtroom where he is preparing to stand trial, Mr. Santos said he planned to delay the election, taking issue with Ms. Pilip's decision to remain registered as a Democrat.

“I don't vote for Democrats,” he said.

Grace Ashford reporting contributed.