Los Angeles Dodgers – USMAIL24.COM https://usmail24.com News Portal from USA Fri, 22 Mar 2024 00:35:03 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.4 https://usmail24.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-1-100x100.png Los Angeles Dodgers – USMAIL24.COM https://usmail24.com 32 32 195427244 Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers keep mum in wake of interpreter theft accusation https://usmail24.com/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-interpreter-theft-quiet/ https://usmail24.com/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-interpreter-theft-quiet/#respond Fri, 22 Mar 2024 00:35:03 +0000 https://usmail24.com/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-interpreter-theft-quiet/

SEOUL – For years it was almost impossible to see Shohei Ohtani anywhere without his longtime interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, just steps away. On Thursday, after Mizuhara’s abrupt resignation due to his involvement in illegal gambling, it was almost impossible to see Ohtani at all. Ohtani did not enter the Los Angeles Dodgers clubhouse during the […]

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SEOUL – For years it was almost impossible to see Shohei Ohtani anywhere without his longtime interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, just steps away. On Thursday, after Mizuhara’s abrupt resignation due to his involvement in illegal gambling, it was almost impossible to see Ohtani at all.

Ohtani did not enter the Los Angeles Dodgers clubhouse during the 50 minutes reporters were allowed inside before Thursday’s Seoul Series finale against the San Diego Padres. He also didn’t even venture into the hallway leading from the clubhouse to the dugout, where more than three dozen cameras from English-speaking, Japanese and Korean news stations were stationed during batting practice. His first public sighting came when he appeared at the on-deck circle in the bottom of the first inning, ripped a single into Joe Musgrove’s first pitch and just missed a pair of home runs in the 15-11 loss.

The two-time MVP was guarded at his locker after the game by some of the team’s public relations officials, who told Japanese reporters:otsukaresama” – which roughly translates to “thank you for your hard work” – as he left behind one of the officials without answering any questions before the club boarded its flight back to Los Angeles.

The Dodgers fired Mizuhara after Ohtani’s representatives accused him of engaging in a “massive theft” in which the player’s money was used to place bets with an allegedly illegal bookmaker under federal investigation.

The accusation from Berk Brettler, the firm representing Ohtani, followed an investigation by The Los Angeles Times. The newspaper learned that Ohtani’s name came up during an investigation into Orange County resident Mathew Bowyer. According to the newspaper, Mizuhara, 39, placed bets with Bowyer.

Mizuhara did not respond to a request for comment. Ohtani is not currently facing discipline, an MLB official said, and he is not believed to be under active investigation by the league.

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Dodgers fire Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter amid ‘massive theft’ allegations

Not a single player spoke publicly before the game, with the barren home clubhouse packed with reporters. There were few signs left of Mizuhara’s short tenure with the franchise. When Ohtani strolled through the dugout Thursday night, he did so without his usual companion.

“It kind of is what it is,” Mookie Betts said after the game. “I hope Sho is good, but at the end of the day you have to let us take care of your work. Like I said, whatever cards we’re dealt, you’ve got to play them.’

The Dodgers lost the final game of the series 15-11. Ohtani, who went 1-for-5 with a sacrifice fly in the second inning, did not answer questions after the game and was escorted out of the clubhouse by a team PR official.

There was no question of having Ohtani play in Thursday’s game, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, noting that Ohtani was in a hitter’s meeting while Roberts spoke to reporters around 3:15 p.m. local time. An abnormal day still had a normal routine.

Of course, a lot had changed in the past 24 hours. Ohtani was seen on air laughing with Mizuhara during the ninth inning of Wednesday night’s season opener, as if nothing had happened. The scene felt normal, a moment of celebration after Ohtani’s first game with his new club after signing a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Dodgers last winter. The image of Ohtani’s time in the major leagues, of his rise to global stardom with the Angels and now the Dodgers, included Mizuhara as his shadow.

After the match, Mizuhara stood in front of an unsuspecting clubhouse and spoke about the news that would become public the next morning.

The meeting was brief and abrupt, according to several people in the room. They described a “weird,” “strange” scene that included Dodgers owner Mark Walter and CEO Stan Kasten.

“Whatever has to do with that, the meeting,” Roberts said Thursday, “I can’t comment.”


Shohei Ohtani and substitute interpreter Will Ireton will be in the Dodgers’ dugout on Thursday. (Chung Sung-June / Getty Images)

According to a team source, Mizuhara told a version of the story in the room that was similar to what he told ESPN in his first interview, which took place on Tuesday.

According to a spokesperson for Ohtani, the player’s involvement was initially described as helping Mizuhara. Ohtani transferred money to cover Mizuhara’s gambling debts of approximately $4.5 million. The money did not go directly to Mizuhara because Ohtani did not trust his interpreter not to ‘gamble it away’. Before Mizuhara’s interview with ESPN was published, the spokesperson denied Mizuhara’s story and said Ohtani’s lawyers would issue a statement.

Mizuhara said Wednesday that Ohtani had no knowledge of his gambling activities, debts or attempts to pay them.

By the time the media were allowed into the Gocheok Skydome home clubhouse after the meeting, Mizuhara had ducked into the hallway and only emerged near the end of Ohtani’s scrum with reporters to quickly interpret three English questions. By morning, with initial reports from the Los Angeles Times and ESPN well circulated, the Dodgers confirmed that Mizuhara — who had been Ohtani’s primary interpreter since his arrival in Major League Baseball and whose relationship with Ohtani even predated that time – was fired. Still, confusion remained among those within the organization, especially after Ohtani’s representatives dismissed many of Mizuhara’s claims in his interview with ESPN.

Speaking to a room full of media members who had gathered to ask about a story sure to make global headlines, Roberts declined to comment on the nature of the allegations and the decision-making process and timing behind Mizuhara’s firing.

Kasten declined to comment before Thursday’s game. So did president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.

“There’s nothing to say,” Friedman said. “Literally nothing to say.”

The Dodgers quickly came up with a temporary contingency plan for Thursday. Due to an MLB rule limiting the number of interpreters in the dugout, the Dodgers had come to rely heavily on Mizuhara as an intermediary for the coaching staff to communicate with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was chased after just one inning in his Major League . debuted Thursday after signing a 12-year, $325 million deal last offseason. Mizuhara’s role, at least for today, was filled by Will Ireton. Ireton, the Dodgers’ manager of performance operations, had served as the club’s interpreter for Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda during much of Maeda’s four seasons in Los Angeles.

Yamamoto pointed to the remaining focus on the game, rather than the story that had made headlines.

“I don’t have much information about it,” Yamamoto said through interpreter Yoshihiro Sonoda. “So I have nothing to say.”

The next steps remain obscure. According to a league source, MLB has not been contacted by prosecutors. The MLBPA declined comment, and Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, declined multiple requests for comment after being present at the Gocheok Sky Dome for much of the week.

It’s the second notable off-field incident in as many days during the Dodgers’ weeklong trip to South Korea after a bomb threat was made ahead of Wednesday’s opening day, potentially putting a damper on the lead-up to the most anticipated season of the season. Dodgers have had this since they moved to Los Angeles. The Dodgers’ $1.2 billion offseason, culminating in the addition of Ohtani, was always going to draw extra attention, and with it, criticism.

Roberts said, “We’re here to play baseball.”

– The athletics‘S Andy McCullough, Dennis Lin, Sam Blum and Britt Ghiroli contributed to this report.

(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani on Thursday: Chung Sung-Jun / Getty Images)

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As the Dodgers enter their Shohei Ohtani Era, failure is not an option https://usmail24.com/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-era-opening-day/ https://usmail24.com/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-era-opening-day/#respond Mon, 18 Mar 2024 22:07:27 +0000 https://usmail24.com/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-era-opening-day/

PHOENIX — Flags only fly forever if you raise them. At Dodgertown, the ancestral home of the Los Angeles Dodgers in Vero Beach, Fla., a mural celebrating six World Series winners greeted visitors. No such signage exists at Camelback Ranch. The team has won the National League West 11 times since shifting its spring training […]

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PHOENIX — Flags only fly forever if you raise them.

At Dodgertown, the ancestral home of the Los Angeles Dodgers in Vero Beach, Fla., a mural celebrating six World Series winners greeted visitors. No such signage exists at Camelback Ranch. The team has won the National League West 11 times since shifting its spring training base to Arizona in 2009, but the franchise does not memorialize mere postseason berths. The Dodgers intended to build a monument to the 2020 World Series championship team but pandemic-related construction delays sidelined the project, and the organization moved on. There are no murals and no banners, no portraits of protocol-following perseverance. If you rely upon commemorative decorations as your guide, the triumph in a 60-game season may as well not exist.

When Mark Walter, the owner of the Dodgers and the chief executive officer of Guggenheim Partners, met with two-way star Shohei Ohtani this past winter, he attempted to sell a vision based on these conflicting truths, the immense pride and deep frustration within his franchise. The Dodgers had become a colossus since Walter’s group took over in 2012 — a perennial contender, playing before crowds that lead the sport in attendance, driving a money machine now valued at nearly $5 billion. Yet the success could not offset the sting of October defeats. A series of early postseason exits since 2020 had disappointed Walter and those within his baseball operations department. As he outlined the dichotomy, Walter wanted to stress something to Ohtani: The owner considered his tenure running the Dodgers to be an on-field failure.

“We’ve only done it once,” said team president Stan Kasten, who was present when Walter spoke to Ohtani. “And we need to do it more often than that.”

In Ohtani — who will debut as a Dodger this week during a two-game series in Seoul, South Korea — Walter and the rest of the organization found a $700 million symbol of a new era. His arrival has vaulted the club into a new financial stratosphere, with a deferral-laden contract serving as the backbone for a $1.2 billion offseason bonanza. His presence has heightened expectations for a team that has not missed the postseason since Barack Obama’s first term in office. Ohtani chose the Dodgers because the franchise offered a pathway to October that had been foreclosed to him during six seasons with the Los Angeles Angels. The Dodgers pursued Ohtani because they had grown tired of watching other franchises conduct parades in November.

And because a union between the two parties made far too much business sense to pass up.

When Kasten first heard about how Ohtani wanted to structure his contract, he assumed he was missing something. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman called Kasten after a discussion with Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo. “Can you repeat that?” Kasten said. Over the course of a 10-year pact, Ohtani intended to receive only $20 million, with $680 million deferred through 2043 so he would not handcuff his new team.


Mark Walter and Stan Kasten introduce their new $700 million man at Dodger Stadium in December. (Frederic J. Brown / AFP via Getty Images)

In recent years, the Dodgers have made deferrals a habit. The contracts for both perennial MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman feature deferred millions. When the team offered $300 million to Gerrit Cole after the 2019 season, the bid included deferrals. Yet the contract Ohtani sought provided so much financial flexibility to the team that Friedman later admitted he would not have had the courage to suggest it himself. Kasten described Walter as “very supportive” of the contract structure. “I would tell you to ask Mark about it,” Kasten said. “But we know that’s not going to happen.” (Through a different team official, Walter, who rarely addresses the public, declined an interview request.)

With Ohtani’s contract functioning effectively as a credit card, Friedman rebuilt the starting rotation and bolstered the offense of a team that won 100 games in 2023 despite myriad shortcomings. The Dodgers bested the sport’s other financial behemoths to land Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto with a 12-year, $325 million deal. After acquiring Tampa Bay Rays starter Tyler Glasnow, the team hammered out a $110 million extension. The signing of former All-Star outfielder Teoscar Hernández for $23.5 million felt like an afterthought. Ohtani, of course, was the biggest prize. He will not pitch this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. But he can still inspire hyperbole. Freeman suggested that when his career was over he would tell his grandchildren about playing with Ohtani, “just like we talk about Babe Ruth.”

The first step on the road to the purported promised land took place at Camelback Ranch three days after the Super Bowl. Crowds lined both sides of a path connecting the Dodgers clubhouse to a practice field for the team’s first workout. The speaker system blared a playlist that sounded as if it had not been updated since 2016. Reporters stood atop step-ladders. Fans lofted selfie sticks. A man hoisted a child onto his shoulders. The throngs pressed against the chain-link fence, desperate for a glimpse of Los Angeles’ newest lodestar. When Ohtani jogged to the field, the roar was loud enough to drown out the bridge of “I Knew You Were Trouble.” The soundtrack was fitting, at least to the team’s president.

“I don’t want to compare it to Taylor Swift, but I think it’s our equivalent, in terms of conversation,” Kasten said. “It’s just everywhere you look, people are talking about him.” Kasten framed the alliance as mutually beneficial. “He had been this outsized talent for the last six years. But I think pairing him with the size of the Dodger brand makes his impact and his visibility even larger than it has been, until now.”


Dave Roberts rounded a corner and spotted a mass of media in the shade of the grapefruit trees planted outside Camelback Ranch. There was the usual group of American and Japanese reporters. But the media relations staff had installed a riser so seven different camera crews could film the manager’s daily briefing without turning the crowd into a rugby scrum. Roberts has chosen to greet the amplified attention this year with the amplification of his own enthusiasm.

“Oh, wow!” Roberts said. “Look at this setup, huh?”

When Ohtani was introduced at Dodger Stadium on Dec. 15, he expressed confusion to Dodgers broadcaster Joe Davis as he gazed out at rows and rows of attendees. Ohtani had been told only media would be there. Davis had to break it to Ohtani that the massive crowd was, in fact, just the media. A similar crush will greet Ohtani during the season, especially at these games in Seoul. The Dodgers are already covered by one of the larger domestic press contingents. The group now includes around a dozen Japanese reporters, tracking Ohtani’s exploits in granular detail, from the number of home runs he hits in batting practice to the larger meaning of a fist bump with Hernández. When Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register asked Ohtani in passing about his dog, Dekopin, Plunkett’s picture was plastered across Japanese newspapers.


Shohei Ohtani attracted massive attention at his first Dodgers spring training. (Kyodo via Associated Press)

Ohtani conducts group interviews once or twice a week. He rarely reveals much about himself. He values his privacy. Reporters have been discouraged from approaching Ohtani or Yamamoto for one-on-one conversations. The team preferred to hold the group sessions in front of a backdrop featuring advertising for Guggenheim. (The team’s uniforms also now include a Guggenheim patch.) For the players, the parade of reporters has wrought some genial irritation. The clubhouse is often barren when reporters are permitted inside.

“It’s just a lot of people,” pitcher Walker Buehler said. “They’ll ask you two questions about you, and then six about Ohtani. And you’ll be like, ‘You just baited me! You baited me into this. You guys got me.’”

The primary person who will deal with the scrutiny is Roberts. The courtship of Ohtani created unease for him. When Roberts decided at the Winter Meetings to reveal a Dodger Stadium sit-down with Ohtani — which no other official from any team involved in the sweepstakes had done previously — Friedman and general manager Brandon Gomes declined to offer him much cover. The group patched things up later that week, but when the Dodgers introduced Ohtani, Roberts was not on the stage.

As Roberts spoke to the group beside the grapefruit trees, an intrepid eighth cameraman scaled a staircase leading toward the complex’s executive offices.

“Excuse me,” a security guard told the cameraman, “you have to come down from there.”

The cameraman pointed to a Dodgers official.

“Excuse me,” the guard repeated.

The cameraman pointed again. A team official walked over. “He’s with us,” the staffer explained. SportsNet LA, the team’s television network, has produced 10 seasons of “Backstage: Dodgers,” which offers lighthearted looks at the inner workings of the franchise. The guard was adamant. Regulations trumped content; eventually the cameraman left his perch and rejoined the scrum. Soon after, Friedman and members of his baseball operations department, clad in three-quarter-zip pullovers, descended the steps.

To some, Roberts occupies the hottest seat in the sport. Friedman has impregnable job security. The Ohtani deal features a provision called a “key man” clause. He can opt out of his contract if Friedman or Walter leaves the organization. The same protection does not apply to Roberts, whose contract runs through 2025. “If the highest preseason expectations in club history crash,” esteemed Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Plaschke wrote recently, “the Dodgers will need an easy target to take the blame, and that will be him.”


Few have as much riding on Shohei Ohtani’s success as manager Dave Roberts. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)

In eight seasons at the helm, Roberts has never won fewer than 91 games — except for the shortened 2020 season, when the club played at a 116-win pace. His .618 winning percentage is the best in Major League Baseball history. He would likely find a bevy of suitors for his services, especially in the wake of new Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell’s market-setting five-year, $40 million contract. Unlike Counsell, Roberts has actually won a World Series — even if his postseason resume contains its share of strategic misfires.

Roberts has described anything short of a championship in 2024 as a bust. Of course, he has spoken with that confidence before. He guaranteed the Dodgers would win the 2022 World Series. That team set a franchise record with 111 victories, but crashed out of the postseason in four games. The disappointment increased the motivation to add Ohtani. Before the season, Roberts suggested his players should worry less about external noise and concentrate on individual progress. Ignoring the noise, he acknowledged, will be tougher than ever.

“This year feels different because you’ve got, essentially, the best player on the planet,” Roberts said. He added, “People love beating the Yankees. And people love beating the Dodgers. When you put on this uniform, that’s what you sign up for. But this year, it’s a little bit more extreme.”


The most expensive pitcher in the history of Major League Baseball has never thrown a pitch in Major League Baseball. Whenever Yoshinobu Yamamoto took the mound this spring, the occasion merited monitoring. As he unveiled his arsenal in a bullpen session during the team’s first workout, a gaggle of reporters watched from a distance. Roberts, Friedman and various members of the coaching staff and front office stood behind the row of mounds. Standing behind the catcher, peering through a mesh-covered fence were Buehler, reliever Daniel Hudson and starter James Paxton. Each took a peek as Yamamoto spun curveballs and splitters along with his 95-mph fastball. “Everything just explodes out of his hand,” Paxton said a day later.

Yamamoto has been an object of fascination among big-league teams for years. The list of executives who traveled to Japan to watch him in 2023 included Friedman, New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and San Francisco Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. After the season, New York Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns made similar jaunts to court Yamamoto. The Yankees presented Yamamoto with his own No. 18 jersey in pinstripes.

His free agency sparked even greater zeal than expected. When the offseason began, some executives pegged Yamamoto in line for a contract worth about $200 million. As the price escalated, the Giants bowed out. The Yankees offered $300 million. So did the Philadelphia Phillies. The Dodgers won the bidding by matching Cohen’s offer after Yamamoto met with Betts, Freeman and, of course, Ohtani.

Yamamoto represents the promise and the peril inherent in the Dodgers pitching staff. His stature is unremarkable; he stands 5-foot-10 and weighs about 175 pounds. He became elite through a focus on flexibility and unconventional activities like chucking a javelin. The transition from Japan to the major leagues can be challenging. During the winter, Yamamoto familiarized himself with the baseball used in the major leagues, which is smaller and slicker than its equivalent in Japan. During his spring debut, a center-field camera for SportsNet LA could capture the different grips of Yamamoto’s pitches.

The tipping discussion that followed did not prompt alterations to Yamamoto’s delivery. The organization expects him to lead its rotation, which will likely function as something resembling a six-man unit to provide breaks for the starters. The regulars may need the rest. Yamamoto has never pitched on the big-league schedule. Glasnow logged a career-high 120 innings last season. Paxton has thrown 117 2/3 innings since 2019. Buehler will not begin the season with the club as he attempts to return from his second Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw hopes to rejoin the team by July or August as he recovers from the first surgery of his career, a corrective procedure on his left shoulder. The list of rehabbing pitchers at Camelback Ranch will include Dustin May, Emmet Sheehan and Tony Gonsolin.

Despite the uncertainty, the team expects its pitching to be excellent. The same cannot be said for its infield defense. A series of wayward throws by infielder Gavin Lux, who is returning from knee surgery, convinced the organization to play Betts at shortstop, a position Betts had handled in only 14 games in the first 10 years of his big-league career. Lux did not look much better after swapping places with Betts to play second base.

The overwhelming strength of the Dodgers, the propulsive force expected to vault the club past 100 victories yet again, will be the first three hitters in the lineup. Betts posted a .987 OPS last season with 39 homers and 40 doubles. Freeman put forth his usual output, with a .976 OPS, 29 homers and 59 doubles. Ohtani surpassed them both while pulling double duty as a pitcher: 44 home runs and a 1.066 OPS in an offense that provided scant protection. When executives around the sport grumble about the Dodgers, they are grumbling about the prospect of trying to shut down this trio, during a season in which Ohtani can concentrate on his hitting.

At one point this spring, Roberts compared Ohtani to the most talented teammate he had ever had. Near the end of his playing career, Roberts shared a clubhouse with Barry Bonds, the sport’s all-time home run leader, a slugger tarnished by his involvement with performance-enhancing drugs but revered by his peers for his talent. Ohtani, Roberts thought, might one day surpass Bonds — in ability, if not homers.

“Shohei,” Roberts said, “has a chance to be the best player ever.”


The people ringed the practice field, clicking cameras and lifting selfie sticks once more, as Ohtani settled into the batter’s box to face live pitching for the first time since his elbow surgery. One fan clutched a painted portrait of the world’s most famous designated hitter. This was several days after the first workout. The attention on Ohtani and the Dodgers had not slackened. If anything, it had intensified, and would only continue to do so.

For a decade, Kershaw acted as the gravitational force within the Dodgers clubhouse. The duo of Betts and Freeman supplied that presence in recent years. Given the magnitude of Ohtani’s fame, the ramifications of his contract and the extent of his ability, Ohtani must serve that role now. He has bonded with Hernández, a former American League West rival. Freeman pronounced himself amazed that Ohtani remembered the name of Freeman’s son, Charlie, after meeting the boy at last year’s All-Star Game.

“He seems to be holding onto his balance, to the extent he can,” Kasten said. “But it’s almost like, in America, he can escape. Because in Japan, he can’t. I’ve been there recently. He’s everywhere.”


Shohei Ohtani’s arrival in Korea with wife Mamiko Tanaka became a news event. (Stringer / Getty Images)

When Ohtani announced his marriage, Japanese television stations interrupted their programming. The Dodgers intend to capitalize on that devotion. “One of our goals is to have baseball fans in Japan convert to Dodger blue,” Friedman said at Ohtani’s introductory press conference. That effort is unlikely to end with Ohtani and Yamamoto. The team is expected to make a full-pocketed pursuit of Rōki Sasaki, the 22-year-old right-handed phenom, whenever the Chiba Lotte Marines make him available. Visitors to Dodger Stadium can expect a bevy of new sponsorships decorating the ballpark. The prices of tickets to enter the ballpark are rising on the secondary market.

As Ohtani prepared to face his new teammates in batting practice, fans and reporters catalogued his movements. When he connected with a fastball from pitcher J.P. Feyereisen, the sound reverberated across the facility. The crowd gasped as the ball took flight. Ohtani watched it clear the center-field fence as he left the batter’s box. He peeled a pad off his surgically-repaired right arm, which remained sheathed in a compression sleeve. He jogged back toward the clubhouse, past the crowd screaming his name, one step closer to Opening Day.

The judgment on this first season of the 10-year union will not come until October. Ohtani has never experienced the MLB playoffs. The Dodgers never miss an invitation. The franchise embarked on this era hoping to accumulate flags to raise and banners to proclaim championships.

Anything less would be a failure.

(Top illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos by George Rose / Getty Images; Gene Wang / Getty Images; David Durochik/Diamond Images)

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The Angels are getting used to life after Shohei Ohtani: ‘It’s like being kicked out of the band’ https://usmail24.com/angels-spring-training-shohei-ohtani/ https://usmail24.com/angels-spring-training-shohei-ohtani/#respond Fri, 15 Mar 2024 20:14:03 +0000 https://usmail24.com/angels-spring-training-shohei-ohtani/

TEMPE, Ariz. – For the past six years, no matter how early the Angels players and staff arrived at Tempe Diablo Stadium, every morning they saw a crowd of Japanese media standing on Tempe Butte Mountain overlooking the team’s spring training complex. This was not a recreational sunrise hike. Every camera was zoomed in, waiting […]

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TEMPE, Ariz. – For the past six years, no matter how early the Angels players and staff arrived at Tempe Diablo Stadium, every morning they saw a crowd of Japanese media standing on Tempe Butte Mountain overlooking the team’s spring training complex. This was not a recreational sunrise hike. Every camera was zoomed in, waiting for the arrival of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.

While spring training means early mornings for players, coaches and reporters, the group assigned exclusively to Ohtani made everyone else think twice about their red flags. Ohtani Watch started at 5am, when most of the Cactus League was still asleep. There were no free weekends and no wiggle room: everyone was looking for that one shot, every day, for the entire six weeks of camp.

“Good luck beating them here,” Angels third baseman Anthony Rendon said of a group that routinely consisted of 50 reporters and could swell to more than 70 for special Ohtani occasions, such as his first-ever press conference during spring training, that the team had to keep. stay in an off-site hotel for crowd control.

“They said they had to be here,” Angels bench coach Ray Montgomery said, shaking his head. “I asked why, and they said in case Ohtani showed up early.”

Ohtani’s enormous celebrity and the attention that came with it never calmed down. When he came to Tempe in 2018 as a 23-year-old Japanese star, no one was sure how Ohtani’s talents as a pitcher and hitter would translate. There is no doubt that the three-time All-Star, two-time AL MVP, two-time Silver Slugger and Rookie of the Year is a generational talent.

Ohtani’s star power now resides 26 miles away at the Dodgers camp in Glendale. If you’ve been living under a rock, the Dodgers signed Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract last offseason. If you’ve lived near Tempe Buttes, the view just got a lot better.

So what happens when the mountain is empty again? What is life like when the Ohtani circus leaves town?

“Someone said in recent years that maybe this was what it was like to be with the Beatles,” Rendon said. “You don’t get used to (the attention), but you expect it. Now it’s like being kicked out of the band.”


In recent years, the Tempe Butte mountain, which overlooks the Angels’ parking lot, has hosted more than 50 members of the Japanese media every day before sunrise. (Sam Blum / The Athletics)

The biggest change, other than the fact that no one saw the team members getting in and out of their cars, happened in the clubhouse. It is and has always been the players’ space. But when Ohtani was there, that huge contingent of reporters made some Angels players feel like guests in their own home.

“It’s nice to get our space back a little bit more,” Angels outfielder Taylor Ward said.

Losing a nine-WAR player doesn’t make any team better. But it made them breathe a little easier.

“Sometimes players were intimidated by a lot of media,” said Carlos Estévez, the Angels’ veteran closer. “A few younger guys. They said, ‘I’ll stay away.’”

Pitcher Patrick Sandoval was one of Ohtani’s closest friends, but even he acknowledged it was a “weird dynamic” to have the Japanese reporters ask him one question about himself, and then 10 more questions about Ohtani. If cameras even caught you nodding to the superstar, the media would ask you to talk about it.

“I always felt that (players were wary of us). We are actually here to cover one man, but we are trying to get other cases related to that one man,” said a Japanese reporter who has regularly covered Ohtani for years and requested anonymity to speak freely.

The Angels PR staff, often inundated with requests, tried to rotate which players they asked to speak about Ohtani, who usually limited his media availability until after his mound had begun. Angels communications manager Grace McNamee, who speaks Japanese, would take notes on Ohtani’s unique schedule and coordinate photo opportunities.

With Ohtani gone, “I’ve never seen Grace so relaxed,” Montgomery said.

A year ago, there was barely enough room to walk down the alley-like hallway in the Angels’ spring training locker room. Now catcher Matt Thaiss and fellow backstop Chad Wallach have enough room there on a March morning to toss a football back and forth as part of an impromptu fielding drill.

Gone are the Ohtani signs and stadium paraphernalia from the stadium and around Tempe. But if you’re one of the thousands of fans who made Ohtani’s jersey the bestseller in all of baseball last year, fear not: It’s still in active Angels circulation.

Ohtani’s number – the famous red and white number 17 – now belongs to…drumroll, please…non-rostered invitee Hunter Dozier, who has a career minus 2.6 WAR, or wins above replacement. Dozier wore No. 17 for almost his entire seven-year career with the Kansas City Royals and signed a minor league deal with Anaheim in mid-January. In the weeks before spring training started, he started wondering: Would the Angels give it away so quickly?

He got his answer on the first day of camp. The 32-year-old utility man emphasized that number 17 has no special meaning for him; it was exactly what the Royals gave him when he started his career.

Now, that number could make him one of the hottest non-roster invitees in Tempe Diablo Stadium history.

“There could be a lot of 17s (in the stands),” said Dozier, who has already been transferred to minor league camp, meaning he won’t make the Angels’ Opening Day roster. “Just don’t look at the last name, but at the number.”

And don’t look too close in the left corner of the clubhouse.

Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers was surprised when he arrived at camp expecting to be in his normal locker — only to find he was given Ohtani’s old space directly to the left of the clubhouse door. Each end spot in baseball clubhouses is typically occupied by veterans and stars, allowing for plenty of room (they often use the locker next to it for overflow) and a quick exit from the media.

“It was a bit sad,” Detmers said. “But at the same time it was pretty cool. Obviously it’s a great locker, and Shohei was incredible. Great guy. Easy to talk to. Talk to him about anything. It is special to have his old locker.”


This spring, Angels Camp has provided ample parking, increased ticket availability and a smaller crowd of autograph seekers. (Photo by Masterpress/Getty Images)

What has quickly lost its appeal are the incessant questions about The Guy Who Ain’t Here. The Angels players, who were still dealing with daily Ohtani questions all spring, had much bigger questions heading into camp, such as: Will there still be sushi?

Each spring, the Angels send a survey to players to gauge their nutritional wants and needs for the upcoming season. Without Ohtani, several players feared that the steady flow of Japanese cuisine would slow to a trickle, leaving the question: “Are we still going to eat sushi?” a common registration question. The answer was yes. Ohtani wasn’t actually the biggest daily sushi consumer on the team; that title probably belongs to Mike Trout or Logan O’Hoppe.

Trout is also the only current Angels player who remembers Life Without Ohtani, and the fact that Ohtani’s arrival in 2018 didn’t actually result in more sushi, or any other food at the team’s spring facility. Ohtani had a nutritionist in Japan who communicated with the Angels staff during an early meeting. During the season he often brought his own food. In Tempe, one of Ohtani’s first English statements to staffers was: “I’m good.”

After a disappointing 2020 season, Ohtani used blood analysis to determine which foods produced his best results and optimized his recovery. The timing was equally crucial. Working on a fairly tight schedule, his interpreter Ippei Mizuhara often sent order requests ahead to the Angels’ kitchen staff so that Ohtani’s food – a rotating menu that always included lean proteins, vegetables and carbohydrates – would be ready when it was needed, which was rarely . during the players’ lunch rush. Ohtani’s schedule was so unique that he often ate with just Mizuhara and infielder David Fletcher.

Still, Ohtani’s absence will be felt in the dining room. Last year he brought Japanese Wagyu beef to the kitchen a few times to cook for the team. Several angels mourned the loss.

Aside from potential iron deficiencies, everything is a little calmer for the Angels post-Ohtani. There is plenty of parking at Tempe Diablo Stadium. Tickets are easy to obtain. The signature lines for players entering and leaving the stadium are minuscule compared to previous years. The Angels’ senior guard focused much of his attention on Ohtani and the crowd of fans and reporters entering and exiting his court. Even Mizuhara often had fans with signs waiting for him as he exited the team bus. As one player described it, there is much less commotion now.

“He brings such an audience, not a bad thing, because of the way he handled himself on the field,” Trout said.

‘I’ve never been around someone so big. I don’t think baseball has seen anyone that big,” Rendon said. “It was weird, right? In hotels and other places, many people would try to find him.

Now the eyes that track Ohtani’s movements have been shipped to Los Angeles. Just a short drive, but a world away.

(Top image: John Bradford / The Athletics; Photos: Aaron Doster/Getty; Michael Owens/Getty)

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2024 MLB ‘Wild-Card Era’ Franchise Rankings: Rangers break into top 10, Cubs fall out https://usmail24.com/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/ https://usmail24.com/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/#respond Fri, 15 Mar 2024 15:45:48 +0000 https://usmail24.com/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/

As Jonah Heim squeezed the final strike of the 2023 postseason and Josh Sborz spiked his mitt on the mound to celebrate the Texas Rangers’ first World Series title, a thought crossed my mind: How will this change the franchise rankings? See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of […]

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As Jonah Heim squeezed the final strike of the 2023 postseason and Josh Sborz spiked his mitt on the mound to celebrate the Texas Rangers’ first World Series title, a thought crossed my mind: How will this change the franchise rankings?

See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of my fallible mind. They are borne from a tested, trusted, completely objective, never-been-questioned, all-math, no-bias formula borrowed from football writer Bob Sturm and tweaked to fit baseball’s postseason structure.

Winning the World Series (WS): 9 points
Losing in the World Series (WSL): 6 points
Losing in the Championship Series (CS): 3 points
Losing in Division Series (DS): 2 points
Losing in Wild Card (WC): 1 point

As of last year, the scoring system also incentivizes division titles (+1 point) and penalizes prolonged losing cycles, docking teams (-1 point) each time they lose at least 90 games in consecutive seasons.

Tally the point totals for the past 29 seasons, from 1995 to 2023, and the result is the franchise rankings as listed below — along with each team’s point totals from the past decade, and average points per season. Tiebreakers are World Series wins, then World Series losses, then Championship Series appearances, then Division Series appearances, then division titles.


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The Pirates’ 76-86 season in 2023 didn’t dig their hole deeper, but it didn’t get them out of it, either. Since winning the 1979 World Series, they have reached the postseason six times — three-year runs from 1990-92 and 2013-15. The team is hoping its next core will author another such run. After signing Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller to extensions, the Pirates need continued progression from young big leaguers — Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinki, Henry Davis — and top prospects Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Termarr Johnson.

Total playoff years: 13DS, 14WC, 15WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

8

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

Average: -.14 points per season

The Royals bottomed out at 106 losses last season, tying the 2005 Royals for most losses in franchise history, and fell to 29th in this year’s franchise ranking as they were vaulted by the Orioles. After seven consecutive losing seasons, the Royals clearly are trying to turn a corner now. This winter, they guaranteed Bobby Witt Jr. $288.7 million, filled out their bench and pitching staff with free agents, and unveiled plans for a proposed downtown Kansas City ballpark. This fall marks a decade since the Royals ended their 29-year playoff drought and reached the World Series — then won it a year later. It remains the case that no team has made the playoffs fewer times in the Wild-Card Era than the Royals.

Total playoff years: 14WSL, 15WS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

9

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

Average: .24 points per season

With the Detroit Lions defeating the Los Angeles Rams in January for their first playoff win since 1992, the Reds now own the longest active streak of not advancing in the playoffs among the four major US men’s sports leagues. Cincinnati swept the Dodgers in the 1995 NLDS, then were swept by the Braves in the NLCS, and they haven’t advanced in any of their four playoff seasons since. The current Reds core has a chance to remove themselves from that trivia answer. The lineup has several potential stars and only one projected starter over the age of 28.

Total playoff years: 95CS, 10DS, 12DS, 13WC, 20WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: -2 points (MLB rank: 30th)

The Orioles jumped two spots in this ranking by winning 101 games and the AL East last year, even if their playoff run fizzled fast. Adley Rutschman was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2022, Gunnar Henderson won the award in 2023, and now top prospect Jackson Holliday is one of the favorites to win in 2024. The Orioles still have the best farm system in baseball, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, even after trading top-100 prospect Joey Ortiz and former top-100 prospect DL Hall to Milwaukee for former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes.

Total playoff years: 96CS, 97CS, 12DS, 14CS, 16WC, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

8

Last decade: 7 points (MLB rank: t-19th)

The Blue Jays are one of a few teams toward the bottom of this list that would fare better if this exercise included the entire 1990s instead of starting in 1995. Toronto won back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993, but didn’t return to the playoffs for another 21 years. Though the Blue Jays have been a playoff team five times in the past nine seasons, including 2023, they’ve been swept in the Wild-Card Series in their last three tries. Even after failing to land a premier free agent this offseason, the Blue Jays have the bats, gloves and arms to be a division winner in 2024 — but so do three other teams in the AL East.

Total playoff years: 15CS, 16CS, 20WC, 22WC, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 10 points (MLB rank: 15th)

The Rockies stayed in the same spot in the franchise rankings but were deducted a point for having back-to-back 90-loss seasons. They chased 94 losses in 2022 with 103 in 2023 — their first triple-digit loss total in franchise history. Todd Helton is a Hall of Famer, bringing back memories of the Rockies’ magical run to the 2007 World Series. The other bit of good news is that Nolan Jones could be a certified star in Colorado. But this doesn’t look like it’ll be the Rockies’ year to win their first division title. FanGraphs has their current playoff odds at 0.1 percent; their odds of winning the NL West, however, are 0.0 percent.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 07WSL, 09DS, 17WC, 18DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

The Brewers won their division last season yet still have the same points total. What gives? Well, time for a mea culpa. In auditing and updating the franchise rankings spreadsheet last month, I discovered an error. From 2001 to 2004, the Brewers lost 94, 106, 94 and 94 games, respectively, so they should have been deducted three points. I had only deducted one. To Brewers fans: I regret the error, just as the Brewers surely regret that era. As The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner wrote recently, Milwaukee has not finished last in their division since 2004. The Brewers have never won a World Series and have only one pennant (1982), but they’re reliably solid in a small market. They are now without Corbin Burnes, but they still have plenty of talent on the roster, plus Law’s No. 2 farm system.

Total playoff years: 08DS, 11CS, 18CS, 19WC, 20WC, 21DS, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 11 points (MLB rank: 14th)

The Mariners had the pieces to be a playoff team again last season, having already exorcized demons in 2023 to end a two-decade postseason drought. But after getting hot in the second half Seattle stumbled in September and was eliminated from the playoffs with one game left in the season. On paper, they have one of the league’s best pitching staffs for 2024. The lineup still features Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford, but it has been overhauled with the additions of a new Mitch (Garver), an old Mitch (Haniger), Luke Raley and Jorge Polanco in hopes of getting more runs and fewer whiffs.

Total playoff years: 95CS, 97DS, 00CS, 01CS, 22DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 2 points (MLB rank: t-25th)

Never let it be said that this franchise-ranking formula doesn’t punish teams that subject their fans to prolonged down cycles (see also: Brewers blurb). The Nats/Expos lost five points for consecutive 90-loss seasons in the 1990s and 2000s, which they more than made up for with five playoff seasons (and a World Series title) in the 2010s. But their current rebuild has cost them another two points. There were some positive signs last year, like Lane Thomas’ 20-20 season, CJ Abrams’ second half and the law firm of (Josiah) Gray and (MacKenzie) Gore figuring some things out. Next, we await the arrival of top prospects Dylan Crews, James Wood and Brady House.

Total playoff years: 12DS, 14DS, 16DS, 17DS, 19WS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

7

Last decade: 16 points (MLB rank: 8th)

I ended last year’s blurb this way: Unless Luis Arraez bats .400, offense will likely be an issue again in 2023. He flirted with .400 until July! Offense was indeed an issue, one the Marlins addressed by adding Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the trade deadline. Losing Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara to Tommy John surgery was a massive blow softened by the performances of Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett as the Marlins secured a wild-card spot. The Marlins have never won their division, and odds are against that changing in 2024, but they have enough intriguing talent to stay on the fringe of the playoff picture.

Total playoff years: 97WS, 03WS, 20DS, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

5

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

Believers in positive regression will find no finer team to back than the 2024 Padres. The club’s late owner, Peter Seidler, spent big in his final years to bring a World Series to San Diego, and so cutting payroll was a priority this offseason. The team is now without one of the best hitters (Juan Soto), starters (Blake Snell) and closers (Josh Hader) in the game. The amount of talent they’ve lost is staggering, underscoring how strange it was to see them come up short in 2023. The lineup still has Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts locked in long-term and Ha-Seong Kim in the fold for another season. The rotation has Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, depth replenished in the Soto trade and now, after A.J. Preller’s Wednesday night blockbuster, another ace-caliber starter: Dylan Cease.

Total playoff years: 96DS, 98WSL, 05DS, 06DS, 20DS, 22CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

4

Last decade: 2 points (MLB rank: t-24th)

The Tigers took a surprising second place in the AL Central last season, their best finish since 2016, though few confused them for a contender. They saw encouraging signs in 2023 from Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene (when healthy), Kerry Carpenter and several pitchers, especially Tarik Skubal. They’ve added a handful of veterans this offseason — Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin — and have a couple top prospects approaching the majors. Better days should be ahead for an organization that hasn’t gained a franchise-ranking point (and, in fact, has lost two) since 2014.

Total playoff years: 06WSL, 11CS, 12WSL, 13CS, 14DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

7

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

We begin the way we always do, with an updated win/loss record since the 2007 name change.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: 645-972 (.399)

Tampa Bay Rays: 1,366-1,125 (.548)

The 2023 Rays raced out to a record-setting start and still managed to win 99 games despite being without star shortstop Wander Franco and losing starters Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to elbow surgeries. They’ve continued team-building their way this winter — prioritizing young regulars and undervalued platoon players and relievers — and will, in all likelihood, be a handful for the rest of the AL East in 2024.

Total playoff years: 08WSL, 10DS, 11DS, 13DS, 19DS, 20WSL, 21DS, 22WC, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

9

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

When writing a year ago “it’s hard to argue the White Sox are better than they were in 2022, and their farm system is one of the weakest in baseball,” I somehow still fell woefully short of predicting their 2023 season. The White Sox self-destructed. They fired Ken Williams and Rick Hahn, lost 101 games and moved seven veterans at the trade deadline. The positive outcome is that the farm system no longer stinks. Law ranked them 10th and noted, “This is about as good as their system has ever looked.” The same cannot be said of their major-league roster. The White Sox have had consecutive 90-loss seasons only once since 1995; they’re projected to add a second this season. They are playing for the future, as evidenced by the Dylan Cease trade Wednesday night.

Total playoff years: 00DS, 05WS, 08DS, 20WC, 21DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 3 points (MLB rank: t-22nd)

The Mets haven’t advanced in the playoffs since their pennant-winning 2015 season. After the Mets won 101 games in 2022, the 2023 season saw Edwin Díaz injured, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer traded, and the Mets missing the playoffs by nine games. They still have the highest payroll in the game, but expectations are lower this season. Spring training started with a sour note as Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a right shoulder strain. FanGraphs gives the Braves a 98.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, the Phillies at 59 percent and the Marlins and Mets tied at 29.5 percent.

Total playoff years: 99CS, 00WSL, 06CS, 15WSL, 16WC, 22WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 9 points (MLB rank: 16th)

The Twins blew some long-standing narratives to smithereens last fall by ending their 18-game postseason losing streak and sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. Then they lost Sonny Gray to free agency, traded Jorge Polanco and cut payroll. They remain the favorite in the AL Central — a division they’ve won three of the past five years — but may be leaving the door open. The Pablo López-led rotation has upside; Jhoan Duran and the bullpen are nasty; and a lineup that starts with Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Max Kepler is likely to do some serious damage.

Total playoff years: 02CS, 03DS, 04DS, 06DS, 09DS, 10DS, 17WC, 19DS, 20WC, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

6

Last decade: 8 points (MLB rank: t-17th)

Before 2022, the A’s hadn’t endured a 100-loss season since 1979. Now they’ve done it two years in a row for the first time since 1964-65. They lost a rankings point for that, dropped one spot in the rankings and will surely continue in that downward direction. Law ranked their farm system last. In 2023, Brent Rooker had an early breakout, Ryan Noda and Zack Gelof emerged and Esteury Ruiz led the AL with 67 steals. But overshadowing all of that in Oakland is the team’s desire to flee to Las Vegas and fans’ attempts to make their objections heard.

Total playoff years: 00DS, 01DS, 02DS, 03DS, 06CS, 12DS, 13DS, 14WC, 18WC, 19WC, 20DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 4 points (MLB rank: 21st)

Let’s break down the Wild-Card Era Angels by decade.

1995-99: 387-405 (.489)

2000s: 900-720 (.556)

2010s: 822-798 (.507)

2020s: 176-208 (.458)

Just as I suspected. The Angels are feeling rather fourth place-ish. They haven’t had a winning record since 2015 (their last “of Anaheim” season), haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, and haven’t won a playoff game since 2009. A 2023 recap: Arte Moreno didn’t sell the team, and GM Perry Minasian didn’t trade Shohei Ohtani before the season, didn’t trade him after the season, made a big bet as a trade deadline buyer and lost. Now the Angels trudge toward whatever is next. They have Mike Trout and Law’s 29th-ranked farm system, and no Ohtani.

Total playoff years: 02WS, 04DS, 05CS, 07DS, 08DS, 09CS, 14DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 3 points (MLB rank: t-22nd)

The Cubs hold the third tiebreaker (Championship Series appearances) over the Angels but were knocked out of the top 10 this year after being jumped by the Diamondbacks and Rangers. The Cubs ended the 2023 season one game back of a wild-card spot. The Chicago roster, though, hasn’t changed substantially since. They lost Marcus Stroman, brought back Cody Bellinger, traded for Michael Busch and signed Shota Imanaga and Héctor Neris. They also have the No. 5 farm system, per Law. The NL Central race should be compelling; FanGraphs projects all five teams between 77 and 84 wins.

Total playoff years: 98DS, 03CS, 07DS, 08DS, 15CS, 16WS, 17CS, 18WC, 20WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 20 points (MLB rank: 4th)

Snakes alive. They climbed three spots in this year’s ranking. They also didn’t exist at the start of the Wild-Card Era, so if we look at their average points per season they rank 10th, ahead of the Phillies by 0.01. Indeed, here come the D-Backs. They may not have won the offseason like the division-rival Dodgers, but they have Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen and enough talent surrounding them to make noise again in 2024. As for the new arrivals: Eduardo Rodríguez fortifies a rotation that could have used one more starter last fall, Eugenio Suárez gives Arizona more thump at third base, and Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk are mix-and-match platoon options at DH and in the outfield.

Total playoff years: 99DS, 01WS, 02DS, 07CS, 11DS, 17DS, 23WSL

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 8 points (MLB rank: t-17th)

The Phillies in the past two years have played in a World Series and come one win short of appearing in another. After flailing for most of the 2010s, they’ve built a formidable core and so far have spent to keep it mostly intact. They let Rhys Hoskins walk in free agency this winter but brought back Aaron Nola and extended Zack Wheeler. This is more or less a run-it-back year for Philadelphia. They have the horses, and they have them healthy for now. But they’ll need to click from the jump if the Phillies are going to win their first division title since 2011.

Total playoff years: 07DS, 08WS, 09WSL, 10CS, 11DS, 22WSL, 23CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 7 points (MLB rank: t-19th)

A World Series title doesn’t guarantee you a top-10 spot in the franchise rankings, but the nine points the Rangers bagged for winning their first ring last fall got them there. It was far from an ideal season for Texas. Jacob deGrom made only six starts before suffering an elbow injury. Nathan Eovaldi and Corey Seager both missed significant time in the regular season. The team fell out of first place and nearly lost their wild-card spot. But Seager, Adolis García, Josh Jung and Evan Carter led the Rangers lineup in October, and the pitching arms of Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery, José Leclerc and Josh Sborz did the rest. There are reasons to doubt the Rangers in 2024, but they’re about as good as they were last spring.

Total playoff years: 96DS, 98DS, 99DS, 10WSL, 11WSL, 12WC, 15DS, 16DS, 23WS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

The Guardians couldn’t give Tito Francona a storybook finish to his likely Hall of Fame career. They played .500 ball in the first half, were 10 games worse than that in the second half and finished third (or lower) in the AL Central for the first time since 2015. Their overall position on this list is incredibly respectable, especially since they’re the only one of the top 13 teams without a World Series title juicing their numbers. The Guardians have made the playoffs 13 times in the 29 years of the Wild-Card Era, won the division 11 times and captured three pennants. With José Ramírez, a young cast of hitters and a strong pitching staff, the Guardians have a shot at the AL Central crown this season.

Total playoff years: 95WSL, 96DS, 97WSL, 98CS, 99DS, 01DS, 07CS, 13WC, 16WSL, 17DS, 18DS, 20WC, 22DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 17 points (MLB rank: t-6th)

Three World Series titles will take you a long way, so the Giants are still sitting pretty here at No. 7 despite not seeing much playoff success since 2014. They backslid from 107 wins in 2021 to 81 in 2022 to 79 in 2023, leading to manager Gabe Kapler’s ouster. This offseason they signed Jordan Hicks, Jorge Soler and Jung Hoo Lee, traded for former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and waited out the market to land free agent Matt Chapman on a remarkably palatable three-year contract with two opt-outs. The Giants, however, still seem undermanned as they face an uphill climb in a division led by the Dodgers and the defending NL champs in Arizona.

Total playoff years: 97DS, 00DS, 02WSL, 03DS, 10WS, 12WS, 14WS, 16DS, 21DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

Houston has reached the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons, played in four World Series and twice — including 2023 — fallen one win short. They are tied with the Dodgers for most points in the past decade; Houston holds the tiebreaker. They’d be in the top five in this year’s franchise rankings if not for the three points deducted for 90-loss seasons in the early 2010s. For now, they’re well clear of the Giants and Guardians and nipping at the heels of the Red Sox. In 2024, the Astros return almost the same lineup as last season, but with an offensive upgrade at catcher in Yainer Díaz. They’ll have Justin Verlander back in the rotation, once healthy. And they have two top-end closers in Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly.

Total playoff years: 97DS, 98DS, 99DS, 01DS, 04CS, 05WSL, 15DS, 17WS, 18CS, 19WSL, 20CS, 21WSL, 22WS, 23CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 46 points (MLB rank: t-1st)

The long-term organizational momentum the Red Sox built with four World Series titles in the past 20 years has stalled. They’ve finished last in the AL East the past two seasons, with identical 78-84 records, and now they have a new chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow, but not a significantly upgraded roster. The Red Sox have strong left-handed hitters but could use some thunder from the right side at Fenway Park. With free-agent add Lucas Giolito out for the season, Boston needs another starter or two to lead the pitching staff alongside Brayan Bello. There’s still time to start spending, but the Red Sox so far have shown no urgency.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 98DS, 99CS, 03CS, 04WS, 05DS, 07WS, 08CS, 09DS, 13WS, 16DS, 17DS, 18WS, 21CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 19 points (MLB rank: 5th)

This wasn’t necessarily the top headline of the Dodgers’ offseason, but they finally ran down the Red Sox and stole fourth place in the franchise rankings. They are a Death Star. The Dodgers have an 11-year playoff streak going, with 10 division titles in that stretch. If the franchise rankings covered only the past decade, the Dodgers would be tied with the Astros at No. 1. They’ve operated at a 102-win clip in manager Dave Roberts’ eight years in Los Angeles, and all of that was before they added [huge breath] Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton and Teoscar Hernández, and re-signed Clayton Kershaw, Jason Heyward and Kiké Hernández. Probably a team to watch in 2024.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 96DS, 04DS, 06DS, 08CS, 09CS, 13CS, 14DS, 15DS, 16CS, 17WSL, 18WSL, 19DS, 20WS, 21CS, 22DS, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 46 points (MLB rank: t-1st)

No movement in our top three for 2024, but a couple teams are in striking distance of the Cardinals this season. After three consecutive wild-card exits, St. Louis had a deeply disappointing 2023, finishing 71-91. It was their first losing season since 2007, and their first 90-loss season since 1990. The Cardinals overhauled their pitching staff this winter, bringing in veterans Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. The talent in their lineup is still eye-popping, so with halfway decent pitching and positive regression from a few hitters the Cardinals could be back in 2024.

Total playoff years: 96CS, 00CS, 01DS, 02CS, 04WSL, 05CS, 06WS, 09DS, 11WS, 12CS, 13WSL, 14CS, 15DS, 19CS, 20WC, 21WC, 22WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 15 points (MLB rank: 9th)

The only one of our top three teams to reach the postseason in 2023, the Braves won the NL East for the sixth consecutive season before bowing out again in the NLDS. They’ve already won a World Series in this competitive window, but it feels like they’ve left a lot on the table. The good news for Braves fans, and bad for most others, is the team’s current core isn’t going anywhere. The Braves have built a behemoth without a top-five payroll, as reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II all have agreed to long-term extensions.

Total playoff years: 95WS, 96WSL, 97CS, 98CS, 99WSL, 00DS, 01CS, 02DS, 03DS, 04DS, 05DS, 10DS, 12WC, 13DS, 18DS, 19DS, 20CS, 21WS, 22DS, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 24 points (MLB rank: 3rd)

The Yankees are still the class of the Wild-Card Era, though they certainly haven’t been baseball’s top franchise recently. The overall body of work is immensely impressive: In the 29 seasons included in this exercise, the Yankees have 24 playoff berths, 15 division titles, seven AL pennants and five World Series titles. (Only one title and pennant, however, in the past two decades.) In 2023, the Yankees narrowly avoided their first losing season since 1992, but their 80 losses still were their most of the Wild-Card Era. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Carlos Rodón all missed significant time with injury. Gerrit Cole was the AL Cy Young and also the Yankees’ only reliable starter last season, but now there’s uncertainty regarding his health for 2024. The Yankees will have Judge, Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo across the outfield. They added Marcus Stroman to the rotation. We’ll see if that’s enough.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 96WS, 97DS, 98WS, 99WS, 00WS, 01WSL, 02DS, 03WSL, 04CS, 05DS, 06DS, 07DS, 09WS, 10CS, 11DS, 12CS, 15WC, 17CS, 18DS, 19CS, 20DS, 21WC, 22CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade (since 2014): 17 points (MLB rank: t-6th)


Rank

  

Team

  

Total

  

Average

  

Decade

  

1

110

3.79

17

2

81

2.79

24

3

72

2.48

15

4

68

2.34

46

5

66

2.28

19

6

65

2.24

46

7

48

1.66

14

8

48

1.66

17

9

37

1.28

14

10

33

1.14

7

11

30

1.15

8

12

29

1

20

13

29

1

3

14

25

0.86

4

15

22

0.76

8

16

21

0.72

9

17

19

0.66

3

18

19

0.73

14

19

17

0.59

1

20

17

0.59

2

21

16

0.55

1

22

14

0.48

16

23

14

0.48

2

24

14

0.48

11

25

10

0.34

1

26

10

0.34

10

27

9

0.31

7

28

9

0.31

-2

29

7

0.24

14

30

-4

-0.14

1

(Top illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos by Justin Berl / Getty Images; Rob Tringali / Sportschrome; Matt Dirksen / Getty Images; Brian Blanco / Getty Images) 

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When Your Landlord Makes the Lead-Off: A Look Inside the Cliquey World of Baseball Real Estate https://usmail24.com/insular-mlb-baseball-real-estate-world/ https://usmail24.com/insular-mlb-baseball-real-estate-world/#respond Wed, 06 Mar 2024 22:33:26 +0000 https://usmail24.com/insular-mlb-baseball-real-estate-world/

Shortly after working his way out of free agent purgatory and signing a new contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kiké Hernández asked his wife Mariana to explore another market. She contacted Dodger Rich Hill’s former wife, Caitlin, with a request: Could the Hernándezes live in the Hills’ home again? The Hills had purchased the […]

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Shortly after working his way out of free agent purgatory and signing a new contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kiké Hernández asked his wife Mariana to explore another market. She contacted Dodger Rich Hill’s former wife, Caitlin, with a request: Could the Hernándezes live in the Hills’ home again?

The Hills had purchased the property, located in the Toluca Lake neighborhood, in 2017, shortly after Rich signed a $48 million contract. The family decided not to sell it after Hill’s final season with the team in 2019. The house has since become a popular destination among Dodgers personnel. Catcher Austin Barnes lived there for one season. Manager Dave Roberts has inquired about its availability. When Hernández rejoined the team at the trade deadline last year, he moved into the home, which is just a 20-minute drive from Dodger Stadium with access to three different highways.

“It’s very attractive because of the location,” Hill said.

But that’s not the only selling point; Almost as important is that the homeowner understands the nomadic baseball lifestyle of his tenants.

When looking for a place to live, players often rely on each other’s recommendations, connections and familiarity with baseball’s unique schedule and travel. That has led to a different kind of market each winter, in which ballplayers buy, sell and trade homes among themselves – swapping houses, directing young players to the right places and passing on certain key properties as the cycle repeats.

It is not unusual for players to report to spring training without a place to stay before the regular season. Sometimes free agents sign later than expected; sometimes transactions happen without warning. In the final days of February, Toronto Blue Jays infielder Justin Turner was still looking for a rental deal in the Toronto suburbs to sync up with his one-year, $13 million contract. Caleb Ferguson, a New York Yankees reliever acquired in early February, was looking for a place on Manhattan’s Upper East Side with a park nearby for his newborn son. Surprised by a trade from the Miami Marlins on Feb. 11, Minnesota Twins reliever Steven Okert said he had “no idea” where he would live in the Twin Cities. “I’ve never been there,” Okert said.

The main problem is the length of the lease. The regular season lasts approximately six months. Renting a house often requires a longer commitment. “It’s always tough,” Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu said. He described the process of finding housing as “during my time in professional baseball, one of the hardest things to do,” which is why his wife Jordan is handling it. Spouses often bear the burden: Yency Almonte, the reliever traded from the Dodgers to the Chicago Cubs in January, will live this summer in the Chicagoland home of Joe Kelly, the reliever traded last year from the Chicago White Sox to the Dodgers summer; their wives brokered the deal.


Yankee Stadium is home to DJ LeMahieu on the field; he rents another home to his fellow ballplayers. (Alex Trautwig/MLB via Getty Images)

During the off-season, LeMahieu lives in the Michigan suburb of Birmingham, Michigan, where he owns two homes. He has been renting out the second home to various Tigers for almost ten years. So many players have stayed there that LeMahieu has lost track. The first tenant was second baseman Ian Kinsler. The longest-standing resident was pitcher Daniel Norris. “I think they all left the places better than they found them,” LeMahieu said. “I came back and there were new things. Super clean. I thought, ‘Wow, this turned out really well.’”

In 2022, his final year in Milwaukee, reliever Brent Suter was living in a house once occupied by former Brewers teammate Corey Knebel. Suter rented a townhouse through VRBO for his 2023 season with the Colorado Rockies. When he signed with his hometown team, the Cincinnati Reds, through 2024, Suter didn’t have to look for a home. But he had the baseball player network to thank for that.

A few years earlier, while pitching for Cincinnati, Wade Miley bought a four-bedroom house in nearby Anderson Township, Ohio. An older couple started building on a lot across the street. Miley eventually discovered that his new neighbors were Suter’s in-laws. He called his former teammate. “When I’m done with the Reds, I’ll sell you this house,” Miley told Suter. Suter laughed at the offer. When Cincinnati placed Miley on waivers after the 2021 season, Suter received another text: “Go check out the house. We will open the garage for you.” Miley, Suter explained, “connected us to our dream home for life.”

During his time with the Cleveland Guardians, first baseman Carlos Santana lived in Bratenahl, Ohio, an affluent suburb on the shores of Lake Erie. After Santana signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies heading into 2018, he rented his home to former teammate Edwin Encarnación. Santana didn’t last long in Philadelphia. The Phillies shipped him to the Seattle Mariners in December 2018. Less than two weeks later, the Mariners traded Santana to Cleveland – in exchange for Encarnación. Santana moved back to his old house.


Edwin Encarnación and Carlos Santana were Cleveland teammates in 2017. Then things got more complicated. (Duane Burleson/Getty Images)

Don’t feel totally sorry for these athletes, who play in a league where the minimum salary in the major leagues is $740,000. Teams provide them with resources, recommendations and brokers. Their own agents often do the same. The collective labor agreement contains provisions that compensate them for their living costs if cuts are made or traded.

Their privilege still brings complications, and not every casual exchange ends happily. In the summer of 2005, the Boston Red Sox acquired an infielder named Alex Cora from Cleveland in exchange for fellow infielder Ramón Vázquez. The two Puerto Ricans were friends. They agreed to trade houses. “The price was the same,” Cora said. He lived in a four-bedroom, two-story house with a garden. He was stunned when he moved into Vázquez’s apartment near Faneuil Hall. “It was a one-bedroom matchbox,” Cora said.

The dollar is stretching further away from the coasts. Ferguson, the Yankees reliever, grew up about 20 minutes outside Columbus, Ohio, home of Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate. He dreams of renting his house there to one of the Clippers. He joked about his willingness to pay utilities for potential tenants as long as they paid his mortgage. “I don’t want to make any money from you, I just don’t want to lose it,” Ferguson said.

Rich Hill came into his role as the Dodgers’ landlord. During the 2021 season, Hill learned that Barnes commuted about two hours each way to the ballpark. Barnes and his wife Nicole had a newborn son. The driving was exhausting. Hill said his Toluca Lake home was empty. “It’s a very nice house,” Barnes said. “He just let us live there.”

Barnes was luckier than Roberts, who found the house occupied when he asked Hill if he wanted to rent it. Hernández suffered the same fate after signing his new contract with the Dodgers. Hill already rented it to a family before 2024. It turns out that non-ball players need homes, too.

“As much as I want to rent it to the guys,” Hill said, “I can’t kick out the people who are there now.”

(The Athletics‘s Fabian Ardaya, Chad Jennings, Zack Meisel, C. Trent Rosecrans and Sahadev Sharma contributed to this report.)

(Illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; Photo by Kiké Hernández: Michael Zagaris / Oakland Athletics / Getty Images; Photo by Rich Hill: Will Newton / Getty Images; Photo of Wade Miley: Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire)

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Rosenthal: Mookie Betts’ latest goal? Become ‘a legend in the game’ https://usmail24.com/mookie-betts-dodgers-rosenthal/ https://usmail24.com/mookie-betts-dodgers-rosenthal/#respond Fri, 01 Mar 2024 02:46:59 +0000 https://usmail24.com/mookie-betts-dodgers-rosenthal/

GLENDALE, Ariz. – Mookie Betts continues to raise the bar. He talked about last season Want to be a Hall of Famer. His latest goal: to become, in his words, “a legend in the game.” Betts, 31, made that statement in an interview I conducted with him for Fox Sports on Tuesday. I asked him, […]

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GLENDALE, Ariz. – Mookie Betts continues to raise the bar. He talked about last season Want to be a Hall of Famer. His latest goal: to become, in his words, “a legend in the game.”

Betts, 31, made that statement in an interview I conducted with him for Fox Sports on Tuesday. I asked him, after winning two World Series and an MVP award, what keeps him going at this stage of his career. What motivates him. What drives him.

“My family, obviously,” said Betts, who is married and has two children. “But then just a drive within myself to just be great. I want to be great. When I’m done, I want you to keep in mind not necessarily just the baseball player, but also Mookie. I want to be a legend in the game.

“How I create that, I have no idea. I’m just going to get on with it and put a smile on people’s faces when I can, try to sign autographs when I can, be the best player I can be when I play, be the best teammate I can be .

“Whatever comes my way, I’m just going to try to be the best at it, no matter what. When it comes to the bench, I want to be the best cheerleader. Whatever it is. I think if I can do that, I feel like it creates some kind of legacy that I can leave behind. You won’t remember all the things on the field, but I definitely want people to remember who Mookie was off the field.

Major League players rarely speak this way. Until recently, sports culture discouraged any form of individualism. Freedom of expression is increasingly accepted, as evidenced by the league’s ‘Let the Kids Play’ promotional campaign in 2019. But even now, few players openly discuss individual goals, preferring to focus solely on the team.

Betts is certainly focused on his Los Angeles Dodgers winning the World Series, something they did in the shortened 2020 season but haven’t accomplished in a full season since 1988. After the team’s $1 billion offseason, which included the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, he spoke of a “sense of urgency” this spring.

“We’ve been to the playoffs so many times and not gotten through,” Betts said, referring to the team’s 11 consecutive playoff appearances. “We got one, but one for nine or 10 is not that good in our sport, really in general.”


Betts fielded ground balls at Camelback Ranch earlier this month. (Rick Scuteri/USA Today)

To become a “legend of the game,” at least from the perspective of Dodgers fans, Betts knows he has to perform better in October. He was brilliant in the 2020 postseason, but went a combined 2-for-25 as the Dodgers were eliminated in the past two Division Series, first by the San Diego Padres and then by the Arizona Diamondbacks, both times after hitting 100 or more had won. regular season games.

But when Betts mentioned his goal of becoming a legend, he wasn’t necessarily talking about on-field performance. I asked him when he realized that it was possible for him to achieve such a status, and that he even wanted to. His answer was telling.

“My friends really stick with me,” Betts said. “They tell me to embrace who you are. Embrace when you walk into a place and someone wants to have their picture taken or someone gets nervous. I used to shy away from it a bit. If I see someone who is quite shy, I go and talk to him. I’m going to humanize myself.

“I’m a normal person just like everyone else, but there are some things that I do a little differently, and there are some lives that I impact a little differently, and I think I have to embrace that. I’m trying. I’m trying my best. It’s weird to me, and it’s even weird to say something like that. But it really comes from my friends. They’ve been with me since I was in fifth grade, so they’ve seen where I was then. We had no idea all this would happen.”

“This” includes his remarkable 2018 season with the Boston Red Sox, when he won the American League batting title with a .346 batting average, helped the Red Sox win the World Series and was voted AL MVP. It also includes seven All-Star appearances and six Gold Gloves, not to mention a $365 million contract, the third-largest guarantee in Major League history.

However, Betts’ popularity stems not only from his immense all-around skills, but also from fans relating to a player who stands only 6 feet tall and weighs 180 pounds. Betts is far from a colossus. He also sometimes shows an endearing, almost childlike joy for the game.

The Dodgers plan to use Betts primarily at second base this season — he recently joked to reporters that he left his right field glove and cleats in Los Angeles. Last season, he moved deftly between right, second and shortstop, showing rare versatility, especially for a superstar.

“It felt like I could be a kid again,” says Betts, a native of Nashville, Tennessee. “Growing up, I never played one position. I almost looked like the utility man. I had four uniforms, and whoever called and needed a right fielder or a shortstop or a second baseman or a third baseman or a first baseman, that’s kind of where we went. It’s almost weird to only play one position, especially in the outfield.”

Wait, Betts played for four different youth teams at the same time?

“Wherever they were needed,” he continued, smiling. “Sometimes I would just pitch, and sometimes I would play left field. It didn’t matter. My dad, I appreciate that about him because I think that really taught me how to be a baseball player instead of just playing one position all the time.

For Betts, it was the start of something big: a Major League career about to enter its 11th season. The Hall of Fame seems within his reach, and yet he wants more. To win another World Series. To be admired on and off the field. To – yes, he said it – become a legend in the game.

(Top photo by Mookie Betts: Masterpress/Getty Images)

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Which teams, front offices and managers are feeling the most pressure? Insiders are participating https://usmail24.com/mlb-teams-front-offices-managers-pressure/ https://usmail24.com/mlb-teams-front-offices-managers-pressure/#respond Fri, 23 Feb 2024 21:55:16 +0000 https://usmail24.com/mlb-teams-front-offices-managers-pressure/

As the February sun shines down on all of baseball and the rankings show everyone is undefeated, it’s easy to melt into a zen state of spring training nirvana. But there is one question in our annual spring survey that brings us back to life. That’s the part where we ask our voters – a […]

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As the February sun shines down on all of baseball and the rankings show everyone is undefeated, it’s easy to melt into a zen state of spring training nirvana. But there is one question in our annual spring survey that brings us back to life. That’s the part where we ask our voters – a panel of 31 executives, former executives, coaches and scouts – which teams, front offices and managers are feeling the most pressure. As always, they had some thoughts!

BRIAN CASHMAN, AARON BOONE AND THE YANKEES (16 VOTES): Does it sometimes feel like Brian Cashman has been the Yankees general manager since the days of Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford? In reality it has only been 26 years. But in the final fourteen, the Yankees forgot to do the one thing they’ve done more than any franchise ever: win the World Series. So if this vote reveals anything, it’s that Cashman and his manager, Aaron Boone, may want to reroute the path to the Canyon of Heroes because their job security could depend on it. … “I love Cash,” said a National League executive. “He’s been there longer than anyone else. But that team will have to make a statement.”

OLIVER MARMOL AND THE CARDINALS (12 VOTES): The good news for the Cardinals: Our voters had mostly good things to say about an offseason that saw them add Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to their rotation – and add depth to their bullpen with Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton. … The bad news for the Cardinals: Their entire rotation could be 33 or older — and we heard a lot of concerns about their manager, Oli Marmol, and his ability to navigate the storms of this ship. … “They would be at the top of my list of teams most likely to make a change (of managers),” said a rival NL manager. “I would just say this: Don’t sleep on the job Yadi (Molina) did as manager (Puerto Rico) in the Caribbean Series.”

AJ PRELLER/FRONT OFFICE ADDRESS (10 VOTES): Last year, a rival executive on this same turf made a bold prediction: If the Padres don’t win their division, in a season when the Dodgers were in such obvious reshuffling mode, “it’s going to be an exciting time. ” Well… maybe not. The Padres increased the payroll to $255 million, replenished the lineup and still played 18 games behind the Dodgers. But even after that debris settled, Preller’s head hadn’t rolled anywhere. But now the stakes seem even higher. The Padres missed that window to take on the Dodgers… beloved owner Peter Seidler lost his battle with cancer… they cut payroll by almost $100 million… and Juan Soto is 2,500 miles from the Gaslamp Quarter. So our voters sent a message that it’s time for Preller to get very nervous. … “They spent all that money,” said an American League executive. “And what do they have to show for it?”

GO DEEPER

Bowden: 5 MLB managers in first place to start the 2024 season

Four other teams are feeling the heat


Busy? Dave Roberts looks calm, cool and collected this spring. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today)

They didn’t make it into the medal standings. But these four teams also caught the attention of some voters.

DAVE ROBERTS/DODGERS (FIVE VOICES): When your team spends over a billion dollars on free agents, so does the manager to have to win? Five voters highly recommend that for Dave Roberts in Chavez Ravine. One voter’s opinion:

“They have to get to the World Series or they can make a change.”

FARHAN ZAIDI/GIANS (FOUR VOICES): Are the Giants starting to feel like your fisherman buddy who can’t stop telling you about the size of all the big fish he catches? it didn’t roll in? It seems like it sometimes, every time another standout wriggles out of their net.

So there were obvious questions about whether this team’s lack of star power could catch up with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.

PERRY MINASIAN/ENGLISH (FOUR VOICES): It’s hard to see how it’s fair to pin the Angels’ problems on their GM, Perry Minasian, given all the dysfunction emanating from the owner’s box. But four voters thought Minasian could pay the price after all.

JOHN SCHNEIDER/BLUE JAYS LEADERSHIP (FOUR VOICES): And finally, there are the Blue Jays. The good news is that they have made the playoffs two years in a row under their extremely likable manager, John Schneider. The bad news is that they have been dismissed twice without winning a game.

The good news is that they pursued both Shohei Ohtani and Soto this past winter. The bad news is that their entire offseason has turned into a huge swing-and-miss.

So the pressure is real. And our voters were split on who squirmed more: Schneider or this front office. But if a frustrating winter leads to a frustrating summer, we might find out.

go deeper

GO DEEPER

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MLB insiders predict which five players are likely to be traded this spring

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(Photo of Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman: William Perlman/Newsday RM via Getty Images)

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Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1 https://usmail24.com/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/ https://usmail24.com/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/#respond Tue, 06 Feb 2024 00:41:50 +0000 https://usmail24.com/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/

Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 17 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. My farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, […]

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Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 17 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. My farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, and notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year, or who might be breakout prospects for the 2025 rankings, will appear starting the week of Feb. 12.

This year’s list has more players from the most recent draft than any top-100 I’ve ever done (I think), with 20 percent of the list — that’s 20 players, if you’re struggling to do the math here — on this list being 2023 draftees. That’s a combination of what might be the best draft class of my career since I left the Blue Jays and a high degree of turnover from the 2023 top-100 list. We had a ton of graduations from last year’s list: seven of the top 10, plus 25 more from the rest of the list. And we had a few face-plants, too, including one guy who went from the top 10 last year to completely off the list this year, although, in my defense, he had it coming. Five others fell off the list due to injury or illness that either impacted their long-term outlook or hurt their performance so much that they were simply passed by other, healthy players.

To be eligible for this list, a player must still retain Rookie of the Year eligibility for 2024, and have no experience in NPB/KBO, as those are major leagues and calling, say, Yoshinobu Yamamoto a “prospect” is pretty silly (not to mention it takes up the space I’d rather use on an actual prospect). I also don’t include the international free agents who just signed in January, since in nearly all cases those guys haven’t been scouted by other teams in a year or more.

I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.

I use “seasonal age” for players (listed as “Age” on the player bios below), which is their age on July 1, 2024, the midpoint of the calendar. I use the 20-80 scale for tools (or 2-8 — same scale, different dialect), where 50 is average, 60 is plus, 40 is well below average, 80 is Ke’Bryan Hayes’ defense, and 20 is Yasmani Grandal’s foot speed. I try to discuss players’ tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust.

When referring to starters, I acknowledge that that role is still evolving and we don’t have 200-inning guys anymore, with a lot of “five-and-dive” (throw five innings and hit the showers) or twice-through-the-order guys, but I will still talk about league-average starters and sometimes refer to back-end (fourth or fifth) starters or above-average (ace, No. 2, and some No. 3) starters. Bear in mind that there is a range around any projection or prediction for a player — if I say I think someone’s a No. 4 starter, he might have a ceiling as a No. 3 or more, and the floor of a middle reliever or a bulk reliever, where the No. 4 starter projection is the most likely or median outcome I see.

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2023 Ranking: 19

Holliday went from “maybe he’s a first-rounder” in the fall of 2021, his senior year of high school, to “oh my God he’s the best prospect in baseball” by May of 2023, an unbelievable rise — you could say meteoric, but I prefer to avoid such clichés — that’s a testament to both his natural talent and his incredible feel for the game. He played at all four full-season levels of the minors in 2023, dominating the first three before a solid stint at Triple-A Norfolk to end the year, with a composite line of .323/.442/.499 on the season and 101 walks against 118 strikeouts. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination, so even when he’s fooled by a pitch he often manages to make contact with it, even hard contact. I do think major-league pitchers will force him to shorten up his swing sometimes, as he nearly always swings full bore and no one has given him any reason to do otherwise. He’s a 50/55 runner, likely to end up average once he fills out, a process that will begin as soon as he starts shaving every day. Holliday is a natural shortstop whose position wouldn’t be in doubt if the Orioles didn’t already have an incumbent there — and Holliday is a better defender than Gunnar Henderson at short — but he’s moved around the infield a little and could come up at third or second if Baltimore doesn’t want to dislodge the AL Rookie of the Year. He reminds me in several ways of Troy Tulowitzki, but has the advantage of the left-handed bat and has a better feel for the strike zone. I think he’ll hit .280-.300 with strong walk rates and 25+ homers a year to go with above-average defense at shortstop, and that’s a profile that can win an MVP award.

2023 Ranking: 3

Chourio came into the year as my No. 3 prospect, behind the two eventual Rookie of the Year winners, but then got off to a slow start when the Brewers started him in Double-A Biloxi despite just 31 games in High A and six in Double A the year before. Whether he was pressing or just adjusting to the tougher level, when the sun rose on June 1, Chourio was hitting .254/.308/.418 and had punched out in a quarter of his plate appearances. The rest of the season, he hit .297/.353/.492 with a 15 percent strikeout rate and spent the final week with Triple-A Nashville. That week went pretty well, as Chourio put 21 balls in play, eight of them with exit velocities of 100 mph or better, peaking at 107.2 mph, and just five below 91 mph. Chourio still finished fifth in the Double-A Southern League in steals and tied for fourth in homers, and has barely begun to fill out physically, getting to that power and hard contact with strong wrists and incredible bat speed. It’s a simple swing with just enough loft in that follow-through for line-drive power, and he projects to hit for high averages as well. He’s a plus runner and at least a 60 defender in center already, likely to end up more. You can make a case for him over Holliday, as Chourio also plays a position up the middle, offers plus defense, has more speed, and is overall a twitchier, more athletic player. I think Holliday has the higher floor, between his position and better feel right now for the strike zone, but, as with the top-two prospects Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll last year, I think both of these guys are superstars.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Salas signed last January when he was 16, was catching Joe Musgrove in a simulated game in spring training in March. He debuted in Low A on May 30, just two days before he turned 17, which, among other things, makes him the first player I’ve ever scouted who was younger than my daughter is. (This is extremely important information, to me, at least.) Salas went off in 48 games in the California League, hitting .267/.350/.487, so the Padres promoted him to High A for nine games, then to Double A to be with the bulk of their prospects for a playoff push for nine more games, after which a minor knee injury ended his season. Salas was born in Kissimmee, Fla., and is the younger brother of Twins farmhand Jose Salas, but spent parts of his childhood in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, so he’s bilingual and very advanced for his age on both sides of the ball. He’s a smooth catcher who has game-calling experience and is comfortable catching premium velocity already, with a plus arm and quick release, as well. At the plate, he’s surprisingly short to the ball for a 6-foot-2 hitter with easy power already. He has enough pitch recognition that he has an idea of when to reach back a little for a harder but longer swing. Catching’s tough on the body and mind, with prospects behind the dish essentially doing a double major, learning all of the skills for a backstop (receiving, blocking, framing, throwing, game-calling, being nice to umps) while also developing as a hitter. Salas is as advanced at the first major, being a catcher, as any 17 year old I can remember seeing, and he seems to be ready to at least survive in Double A as a hitter already. It’s a potential bat that would play at first base attached to a catcher who might be plus in every meaningful aspect of the position. If he keeps hitting, Krylon might put him in their commercials.

2023 Ranking: 9

Lawlar was the sixth pick in the 2021 draft out of a Dallas high school, but injured his shoulder on a swing — the same injury that befell Corbin Carroll before him and Druw Jones afterward, so I hope Tommy Troy has insurance — and played just two games after signing. Even without a real first summer, he’s raced up to the majors in two seasons, reaching Triple A just a few weeks after he turned 21. He’s got great instincts on both sides of the ball and has now improved his footwork and his throwing to the point where he might be a 55 defender at short, and no worse than average. On offense, he’ll show plus bat speed and should get to 15-20 homer power at his peak, although the 20 homers he hit last year were inflated by playing in two insane hitters’ parks in Amarillo and Reno. When he’s right, he’s very short to the ball but still makes solid contact because of that bat speed and wrist strength, with a swing path that will produce more low line drives than big flies. He’s an easy plus runner who’s a real base-stealing threat, with an 87 percent success rate in the minors. My one concern is that he can come out of his swing at times, lunging and over-rotating to try to force power that isn’t there, which can lead to whiffs or just poor contact, like topping the ball right into the ground. As long as he stays back and sticks to what’s worked so well for him, he should be a star somewhere on the infield, even if he moves off short for a superior defender.

2023 Ranking: 99

Acquired by the Rays in a trade that Guardians fans would prefer I never mention again, Caminero started 2023 in High A and finished it in the majors while getting regular at bats for a playoff team — and smoking the ball, too. Caminero’s a tremendous hitter, combining feel for the barrel, balance, and brute strength to produce a ton of hard contact, peaking at 112 mph in his brief stint in the majors. His swing is simple but still powerful between that upper body strength and his rapid hand acceleration, while he doesn’t chase much and doesn’t miss many pitches in the zone, with some vulnerability to breaking stuff down and away that’s typical for a lot of young hitters. Caminero has primarily played third base in the minors and worked himself into an average glove there, with some experience at short, second, and even first, although that last position shouldn’t be necessary given how much progress he’s made at the hot corner. He hit 31 homers in total last year in 117 games across three levels, and this kind of hard-contact skill and feel to hit should produce that kind of 30+ homer power in the majors too, with .300ish averages in the best outcomes, enough for him to be the impact bat the Rays have needed for ages.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Few draft players have had debuts as good as Langford’s, as he played at four levels last season, hitting .360/.480/.677 in 200 professional PA, and ended the year in Triple A, where he reached base 14 times in 26 trips to the plate. Langford was my preseason No. 1 prospect for the 2023 draft and was No. 2 on draft day after a ruptured testicle took him out for about two weeks in the spring, preventing him from answering scouts’ questions about his outfield defense. He’s an electric offensive player, a 70 runner underway who boasts a smooth, powerful right-handed swing where he stays very steady through contact, rotating his hips on time to transfer his weight without becoming unbalanced, putting the ball in the air with a lot of juice. He’s fast enough for center but played left in Florida, in part because they had a plus defender in center but more because Langford has yet to show even solid instincts in the outfield. That said, if what he did in a modest sample in pro ball is any indication, he could play sixth base or top field or anywhere else and still be an impact player, because he looks like he is really going to hit and put 25-30 balls in the seats, too.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Crews was already on scouts’ radar as a high school junior for his advanced hit tool and potential for power, but a rough start to his senior year followed by a global pandemic that ended the 2020 season and cut the draft short. Well, he ended up at LSU, and things worked out just fine, as he mashed for three years as a Tiger and ended up the second pick in the 2023 draft. Crews can really hit, going .426/.567/.713 last spring for LSU, then hitting .355/.423/.645 in 14 games in Low A after he signed, although an aggressive two-level promotion to Double A finally slowed him down. His swing is really simple and when he’s on time, it’s short and direct and the contact is loud. He’s an average to a tick above-average runner, but so far he’s looked very good in centerfield thanks to great reads, although he may end up pushed to a corner by a superior defender once he’s in the majors. When he was playing with Double-A Harrisburg, pitchers were able to mess with his timing by changing speeds, even getting him to cut through some fastballs in the upper half of the zone, so there are some adjustments for him to make before he races to the majors. It might slow his progress by a few weeks, but his ceiling as a hitter who’s among the league leaders in all three triple-slash categories while playing up the middle or playing plus defense in a corner is still there.

2023 Ranking: 11

Mayer was the fourth pick in the 2021 draft and No. 1 on my final draft board that year. His 2023 season didn’t go according to plan, as Boston’s top prospect hurt his shoulder in May, eventually going on the injured list for the impingement in early August, ending his season. When healthy, Mayer has a beautiful left-handed swing and projects to plus power in his peak years, with plenty of loft in his finish to put the ball over the fence, but he hasn’t been healthy all that often in his two full years in the minors, dealing with some wrist soreness in 2022, as well. He’s got the athleticism and first-step movement to be a plus defender at short, showing the ability to make difficult or distant plays, and needs to work more on consistency to become a 60 or better in the field. He’s a below-average runner and not likely to be a base-stealing threat in the majors. Mayer’s shoulder was already hurt when he got to Double A last year, so his dismal line there (.189/.254/.355, 26 percent K rate) is probably just noise. He needs a full season on the field now to show the huge upside that made him Boston’s first pick in 2021.

2023 Ranking: 53

Carter’s ascent to the majors over the last two years rivals that of anyone other than perhaps Junior Caminero’s, and in some ways is more stunning given that Carter started the 2022 season with just 32 games played beyond high school. The Rangers’ second-round pick in 2020, much-maligned in these quarters as area scouts questioned his contact skills in high school, Carter has shown outstanding plate discipline at every level, including the majors, and the ability to manage an at bat like a major-league veteran. He’s a plus defender and runner who might end up with a 6 hit tool as well, which would make him an All-Star if so. There are some beige flags here; he’s never hit left-handed pitching in the minors or majors, his swing probably isn’t going to produce more than average pull power, and he’s shown more propensity to chase now that he’s facing better quality pitching. Brandon Nimmo didn’t hit lefties much at all until he was 25 or 26, and he’s already produced 21 WAR and made himself a ton of money, so the platoon split issue is far from fatal. Carter’s got a very high floor — the worst-case scenario would appear to be that he’s a high-average/OBP platoon outfielder with plus defense — with the ceiling of a star if he hits southpaws better and gets toward 20-ish homers a year.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Skenes was the first pick in last year’s draft, coming off a spring where he was nearly unhittable as the Friday night starter for the eventual national champion LSU Tigers, punching out 45 percent of batters he faced and pitching regularly at 96-102 mph with a wipeout slider. He’s a pitcher of unusual size, already 6-6 and probably 260 lbs or so, and hides the ball extremely well behind his body thanks to a compact arm action, allowing him to get away with some iffy fastball command and below-average life on the pitch. He offers ace ceiling, with size and arm strength you can’t teach, but has several adjustments to make to get there, including ramping up use of a changeup he never bothered to use in college (why would he do hitters the favor) and working on a two-seamer so hitters don’t cheat and sit on the straight four-seamer instead. His command is probably a 45 or so, although he throws the fastball for strikes enough that I’d be surprised if walks were an issue before he reaches Triple A, where they use the automated ball-strike system (ABS). He’ll need to take a few more steps forward to give the Pirates a real top-of-the-rotation solution, but Pirates fans can take heart in Skenes’ track record of improvements, as he went from a two-way player with an above-average fastball at Air Force in 2022 to the dominant starter we saw last spring at LSU. Look for him to reach Pittsburgh at some point this summer.

2023 Ranking: 12

The top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Harrison had a rough go in his Triple-A debut last year, walking 16.3 percent of hitters — at least some of which was likely attributable to the automated ball-strike system that’s used in some Triple-A games — and missing a month with a hamstring injury, but he showed much better in his seven major-league starts, including throwing a lot more strikes than expected. Harrison comes from a low three-quarters arm slot that makes him very tough on left-handed hitters, working 92-97 mph with hard running life, along with a hard slurve that mostly breaks downward and a changeup that’s potentially plus and has good separation from the fastball. It’s not an easy delivery to repeat, so his command will probably always be a question, but the improved control in the majors was a great sign, and his sudden trouble with the longball (eight homers allowed in 34 2/3 major-league innings, four of them in a single start) seems fluky with three coming from left-handed batters. Everyone wants to make pitchers who throw like Harrison into Chris Sale, but I think that’s unfair to both guys; the White Sox gave Sale a new grip that turned his slider into a 70, while Harrison may end up relying much more on the fastball/changeup and saving his breaker for left-on-left crime. Regardless of how he puts it together, he looks like a No. 2 starter and has that ace upside if the command takes a leap or he can tighten up the slurve.

2023 Ranking: 45

Quero spent the entire 2023 season in Double A at age 20, the youngest catcher to get even 300 PA at either of the top two levels of the minors. He showed big progress across the board, including a massive improvement in his conditioning from 2022 to 2023. He’s in way better shape now to handle a full season of work behind the plate, so while he always had the hands and arm for the position, he’s a lot more consistent and could end up a 60 defender there all around. At the plate, he’s got great feel for the barrel, with a swing that’s short to the ball and long through contact, with future 20-homer seasons a possibility when he’s in his mid-20s. He can swing too hard at times but gets away with it because he has such good barrel control within the zone. He did have a reverse platoon split last year, struggling especially when lefties threw him changeups, while right-handers would attack him with spin down and away that he’s still learning to lay off. Other than running, he’s got the potential for above-average or better tools across the board, and he’s already advanced as a catcher for his age. The Brewers don’t need a catcher now, just like they don’t need a center fielder, but they have a future two-way star here in Quero.

2023 Ranking: 22

This is Rocchio’s fourth year on my top-100, and I presume his final one, as he debuted in the majors last year and the Guardians appear to have cleared the path for him to be their opening-day shortstop. Rocchio’s outstanding feel for the game was evident even when he signed at 16, while he’s developed into a plus defender at shortstop and improved his pitch recognition and swing decisions as he’s moved up the chain. He’s a true switch-hitter who hits from both sides of the plate, and he’s become extremely difficult to strike out, ranking in the top 4 percent of all full-season players (minimum 400 PA) last year in contact rate. He’s shown power in the past, with 33 homers in 2021-22 combined, and hits the ball hard for a smaller hitter, with top-end exit velocities higher than Alex Bregman’s were at ages 22-23, although I’d project a more conservative 15-18 homers a year for Rocchio. It’s plus defense, potentially elite plate discipline, quality contact already, and a track record of consistent improvements. Cleveland’s trade of Francisco Lindor should hurt a bit less now that his successor is here.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Clark could have been the first pick in many drafts, but the 2023 draft was loaded at the top, so Clark ended up going third to the Tigers. He’s an actual five-tool prospect, by which I mean he is or projects to be above-average or better in all five tools — hit, power, run, field, throw — not just a great prospect who gets called “five tool” because it sounds good. He’s a 70 runner who plays easy plus defense in center with a strong enough arm for right, and he’s got a pretty yet powerful left-handed swing that gets to plus power already. He starts with a wide base at the plate with just enough room left for a small step forward without much weight transfer, then starts his hands extremely quickly to generate that plus power. The only question about his tools is how good a hitter he is today, as he didn’t face any decent pitching among Indiana high schools; his pro debut included a lot of contact even when he was clearly gassed playing in Low A in September. He’s already strong for his age and size and doesn’t offer a ton of projection, but also doesn’t need it to profile as an above-average regular or better — a 30/30 guy who plays plus defense in center and at least has OBPs in the upper .300s.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Jenkins was the fifth pick last year and part of the quintet of prospects who could have gone first overall in a typical draft, so the Twins picked the right year to select fifth in the draft. Jenkins earns a lot of comparisons to Larry Walker for his size, athleticism, and sweet left-handed swing, leading to hopes he can be another power-hitting right fielder with strong on-base skills and some speed as well. It’s about as textbook a swing as you’ll see, with elite bat speed and great hip rotation for hard contact and what should end up as 25-30 homer power, if not more. He had zero issues in pro ball with contact or plate discipline, although he didn’t show much of the power, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he took a year or two to grow into that part of his game. He played center in every game when he played the field except for one in right, but given his size I think he’s going to end up in a corner, just like his namesake. It may not be a straight line to stardom but I believe Jenkins’ swing and bat speed will carry him for now while we wait for the power to arrive.

2023 Ranking: 46

Winn reached the majors last year at age 21 and just barely still qualifies for this list — one more day on the roster or nine more at bats would have cost him his ROY eligibility for 2024. He’s an elite defender at short with an 80 arm, registering 100.5 mph on a throw at the 2022 Futures Game that set a new Statcast record for velocity for a throw by any infielder. He has outstanding plate discipline for his age, across all dimensions of that term — his pitch selection, his pitch type recognition, and his ball/strike recognition are all above-average or better for someone who’s been young for every level he’s played at in pro ball. He’s also a 70 runner with an 88.4 percent success rate on 104 stolen base attempts in the minors. And he has outstanding bat speed on top of that, rarely missing even plus fastballs, although in his case his bat may be in and out of the zone too quickly for it to translate as plus power or even high exit velocities. That adds up to a pretty high floor: plus defense, high contact rates, solid to plus on-base percentages, added value on the bases, and you hope a little power. Unless his approach completely collapses in the majors, which I have a hard time imagining, he’ll be at least an average regular at short for a long time. The Cards appear to have cleared the way for him to win the job out of spring training, and I don’t think there’s any real benefit to sending him back to Triple A at this point anyway. Just let his defense carry him while he adjusts to big-league pitching and enjoy the show.

2023 Ranking: 49

Marte has always hit even though he’s been young for the level everywhere he’s played, reaching the majors last year at age 21 and hitting .316/.366/.456 in his cup of coffee with just a 20.3 percent strikeout rate and a peak exit velocity over 115 mph. Acquired in the big swap that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle for four players, Marte had fallen out of favor with the Mariners because he’d gotten so big there was — and still is — some question over whether he’ll stay on the dirt, and I think there is no real shot for him to stay at shortstop. To his credit, he’s maintained some of his athleticism and speed even as he’s filled out so quickly, and while he probably won’t be a rangy third baseman he should make all of the necessary plays to be at least average there. His bat isn’t a big question, as he has great instincts at the plate and uses the whole field well, with power from his pull side all the way over to right-center. Playing half his games in Cincinnati should get him to 20-25 homers a year, if not more. His ultimate offensive ceiling depends on his approach, which right now is appropriately aggressive — he doesn’t whiff much or walk much, but chases a little too often right now to project as a star at his peak, with more of a .280/.330/.500 sort of ceiling. That’s a very good regular who makes some All-Star teams, with the chance to become something more if he makes better swing decisions even independent of just walking more. He’s ready for a major-league job right now, and the Reds have one to give him at third; if he wins it, he’s a contender for Rookie of the Year.

2023 Ranking: 26

Crow-Armstrong hadn’t played above A-ball coming into 2023, but hit a combined .283/.365/.511 between Double A and Triple A to reach the majors in September, where then Cubs manager David Ross played him only when both of Earth’s moons were in Sagittarius, possibly contributing to the fact that Crow-Armstrong still has yet to get his first major-league hit. He’ll get that and more this year, as he should spend the season as the Cubs’ center fielder, providing plus defense and I hope some strong on-base skills. Crow-Armstrong might be a 70 defender in center and is certainly plus, enough to give him a high floor as a fourth outfielder in the unlikely event that his bat doesn’t pan out. One reason that might happen is that he’s come into more power than anticipated, and it’s affected his approach, as he sells out to get to that power sometimes, often cutting across the ball and slicing it to left field. He’s strong enough to hit 20 homers, as he did last year in the minors, and a good enough hitter overall to hit .300+, but he’s probably not going to be able to do both with his swing and his size. He’s better served going for contact and letting some power come naturally, in the 10-12 homer a year range, and perhaps in doing so he’ll see his walk rate and thus his OBP creep back up. After a tough, if very brief, stint in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has a little more reason to find that offensive middle ground, and added to the value he’ll provide on defense he could be a 5 WAR player for several years through his peak.

2023 Ranking: 16

Wood has turned out to be the jewel in the trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego. Wood has shown several elite tools already and reached Double A last year at age 20, but also carries some real risks related primarily to the strike zone. Wood is an outstanding athlete with 70 speed and 80 raw power, and if anything he’s improved his conditioning in pro ball to get even more out of his physical gifts. He can play plus defense in center and I’ve gotten occasional run times from him that grade out at 80. He started last year in High-A Wilmington, generally a tough place for power, and hit .293/.392/.580; his eight homers in 42 games ended up second on the team for the season. When the Nats bumped him to Double-A Harrisburg, which is a better home run park, the power stayed but the sheer size of his strike zone and some of his pitch recognition both led to a big jump in his strikeout rate, from 27 percent to 34 percent, with fastballs up and sliders in the lower third both becoming issues for him. He’s every bit of 6-6, maybe even 6-7 at this point, and between his height and how hard he swings, he’s going to have some whiff; the challenge for him and the Nats will be cutting it down to a manageable level so he hits enough to get to that 40-homer power and isn’t an OBP liability. My guess is there isn’t much middle ground here; the ceiling is that middle-of-the-order offense in a plus right fielder or 50/55 centerfielder, while the floor is another guy who can’t cut his K rate below 30 percent and bounces around for years as teams hope to catch lightning in a tall bottle.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

The Orioles refused to participate in the annual Latin American free-agent donnybrook for more than a decade, which continues to hurt their farm system even now that they’ve jumped back in because of the lag between when those players sign (typically at age 16) and when they emerge as prospects. Basallo was one of their first big signings in that market, earning a $1.3 million bonus in 2021. He debuted in full-season ball this year, hitting so well in Low A and then High A that he even got a four-game cup of coffee with Double-A Bowie to finish the season. Basallo turned 19 in August and his bat is already very advanced, with a very short but powerful swing and what appears to be very good pitch recognition. While his offense is ahead of his defense, he does project as a catcher, with a cannon of an arm and the hands and athleticism to handle the position; the risk is that his bat might be so advanced that it’s better to move him to another position so he can get to the majors, à la Bryce Harper, Wil Myers or Paul Konerko. The Orioles also have a pretty good young catcher ahead of Basallo, which might change Basallo’s trajectory, although it isn’t relevant for the purposes of this ranking — Basallo projects as a power-hitting catcher with a strong OBP and the ability to control the running game, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball.

2023 Ranking: 32

Domínguez reached the majors last year, just four years removed from signing for a $5.1 million bonus and more hype than any Dominican amateur player since Miguel Sanó a decade earlier, only to have his season end prematurely when he needed Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow. Before that, however, he showed why he was so highly touted, with plenty of hard contact in the majors and in Triple A, topping out around 110 mph and hammering fastballs of any velocity. He has outstanding bat speed and easy plus power, while he’s a 70 runner underway and looks like he’ll be a plus defender in center if he’s given the opportunity out there. He’s a true switch-hitter, although he’s better from the left side, with enough platoon split last year to at least bear watching. He’s improved his pitch recognition by leaps and bounds since he began his pro career in 2021, and while he reached the majors sooner than anyone expected, he wasn’t overmatched and his batted-ball data was even better than the stat line. He’ll probably miss at least the first third of the 2024 season, maybe half, based on typical recovery times for position players with TJ surgeries, and perhaps that gives the Yankees cover to let him go mash in Triple A for a month before he returns to the majors. Once he’s healthy, he offers 20/20 upside with strong batting averages as well and the potential for plus defense in center or, if he loses any throwing strength, maybe 65-70 defense in left. The hype may have died down a bit but he looks like he’s going to be a star right on schedule.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Anthony boasts one of the best-looking swings in the minors, making a number of adjustments between when the Red Sox took him in the second round in 2022 and the start of 2023, turning him into one of the game’s top offensive prospects. Those adjustments included freeing up his hands and helping him keep his lead arm looser through contact for more power, while also using his lower half more to produce harder contact — something Boston cited when promoting him out of Low A despite a mediocre stat line of .228/.376/.316 at the level. He responded by hitting .301/.422/.565 the rest of the way between High A and a 10-game stint in Double A, so, hey, sorry I doubted you guys! He struck out around 28 percent of the time after the promotion but doesn’t chase often at all until he gets to two strikes, so the approach is sound, and the power is already showing up with more to come as he fills out. He’s playing more center now and Boston is working with him to improve his routes and his first-step quickness to give him a chance to remain there, with plus defense in a corner another potential outcome if he has to move. The Red Sox previously had the Greek God of Walks; maybe soon they’ll have Roman, God of Swings.

2023 Ranking: 20

Otherwise known as Jackson Barrel because, well, it’s not because he likes cognac. Merrill transformed his body in the 2021-22 offseason and has spent the last two years making a ton of contact while playing excellent defense at short, working his way up to Double A before his 21st birthday. Only 14 minor-league hitters who played enough to qualify in full-season ball struck out less often than Merrill’s 12.1 percent rate last season, and he actually struck out slightly less in Double A than he had in High A — and way less than he did in 2022. He’s gotten quite a bit stronger since high school, but so far that hasn’t translated into hard contact or high BABIPs, as he was under .300 at both stops last year. Merrill’s typical swing is very short, allowing him to make contact at high rates but at a cost of some of that impact, so the Padres have worked to help him get his lower half involved more and stay back better so that he can at least start to show more pull power. If you look at the body, the swing path through contact, and the feel for the zone, you can project 20+ homers in time, especially if he can start driving the ball the other way as well as to his pull side. He’s a 55 defender at short now who’ll likely end up plus, while he’s fast enough to handle centerfield if that became an option and should have no trouble at third or second. He has a wide range of outcomes despite a high floor; at worst he’s a low-OBP utilityman who plays forever because he can put the ball in play and handle six or seven positions. If the power comes, though, he could be a shortstop with a bat that would profile in right field, hitting for average even with low walk rates and getting to that 20-25 home run upside.

2023 Ranking: 18

Johnson has real plate discipline and excellent feel to hit, leading the full-season minors in walk rate and finishing fifth in total walks drawn with 101. He has excellent pitch selection and developing power but some cracks in the approach and the defense that weren’t apparent before this year. Johnson cleared up the hitch he would flash in high school and his bat path is clean and lets him get to that emerging power, with 18 homers in 2023 after he hit just one in 23 games in his pro debut the year before. He doesn’t chase, a skill that was more evident after he was promoted out of the Florida State League, where the league uses automated ball-strike system for some games, which has produced higher walk rates when it’s in place. However, he’s shown more propensity to whiff in the zone, and a late load seems to be impairing his timing, so even if he picks up the pitch type he’s still showing some swing and miss. Defensively, he’s moved to second base and scouts are very mixed on whether that’s going to be a long-term solution for him, as his footwork isn’t great and he’s getting by on his incredible instincts and baseball IQ — which isn’t a bad thing, mind you, but might not keep him at the position unless his mechanics improve. His range of outcomes has widened in both directions since last offseason; he could be a high-OBP, 18-22 homer second baseman, making a lot of All-Star teams and playing for a long time, but he could also end up in left field and/or miss too much in the zone to get to the high averages and OBPs everyone foresaw in high school.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

De Paula signed for just under $400,000 as an international free agent in January 2022, and he’s since shown incredible feel for the strike zone as a teenager in Low A along with some high-end exit velocities already that point to a very big OBP/power upside. Born in Brooklyn but signed out of the Dominican Republic, De Paula — who is cousins with Stephon Marbury (tastefully done) — has outstanding bat speed and really controls the zone, with both ball/strike and pitch recognition that led to walk and strikeout rates well above the Low-A average last year. The main concern with him is that he’s a well below-average runner already at age 18, and has so much projection left to his body that he might grow himself right into first base. The combination of bat speed, selectivity, present power, and big physical projection could make him among the best hitters in baseball at his peak, and if so, whether it’s at first base or in an outfield corner won’t really matter.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Shaw was No. 7 on my 2023 pre-draft rankings after a spring when he hit everything hard for the University of Maryland, barreling up balls for a .341/.445/.697 line with some of the best batted-ball data in the class. The Cubs were overjoyed when he fell to the 14th pick, and were aggressive with him after he signed, getting him to Double A in September after he hit .393/.427/.655 in his 20-game stint in High A. Shaw’s swing already puts the ball in the air on a line, in the range that maximizes power and production on contact, with an average launch angle of 26 degrees last spring. He’s also shown the ability to recognize balls and strikes and thus limit his chase rate. He played shortstop in college but struggled with some of the harder throws, so he was always expected to move to second base or maybe the outfield; the Cubs have a more critical need at third base now, so he’s likely to see a lot of time there this year as they try to see if he can provide them with a long-term solution. Wherever he plays, he seems very, very likely to hit, and to end up hitting for more game power than his raw power grades (I’d say 55) might indicate.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Mayo hits the ball really, really hard, and he also hits it pretty often, which is a great starting point for any bat-first prospect; he drew 93 walks last year between Double A and Triple A to go with 29 homers and a 24 percent strikeout rate, which I think demonstrates his floor as “just” a three true outcomes hitter already. He’s 6-5 and listed at 230 pounds, so he’s got a big strike zone and some innate length to the swing just from the size of his arms. To his credit, he’s developed his eye at the plate over the last three years, with help from the Orioles’ staff, allowing him to make better swing decisions and look more for pitches he can drive to take advantage of that natural strength. There may always be some swing and miss here, notably on breaking stuff in the zone, due to his size and his wide setup at the plate, but a team could live with it because what he does on contact is so good — he hits it hard, and in the air, and can go the other way a little bit even though his power is mostly to his pull side. He’s got a 70 arm that would allow him to play anywhere, but third base is probably an uphill battle because of his size — he’s athletic enough for it, but it’s hard for guys that tall to stay on the dirt and consistently get down for groundballs. He could certainly play first right now and I’d like to see him in right field. The left side of the Orioles’ infield is the most densely populated place in America, so a position switch might serve everyone’s needs anyway. He probably won’t add much value on defense, but won’t hurt you, and a 30-homer, 80-walks guy who posts high BABIPs because everything off the bat is 90 mph or better is an above-average regular who plays for every team.

2023 Ranking: 29

Alcántara was part of the return from the Yankees for Anthony Rizzo at the 2021 trade deadline. The trade came right after he turned 19, and turned him almost immediately into one of the Cubs’ top prospects despite his inexperience to that point and the amount of physical projection he still had remaining. He’s still got a fair amount of growth ahead of him, and his game overall remains inconsistent, but he has superstar-level tools and has days where he’s clearly the best player on the field. The ball flies off his bat already, with 20-25 homer power now and the potential for 35-40 when he fills out, while he’s also a plus runner who plays at least solid-average defense in center. After a rough start to last year (including a 21:1 strikeout to walk ratio in May), he hit .329/.404/.551 from June 1 onward around a stint on the injured list and a promotion to Double A for the final five games of his season. Despite his 6-6 frame and a swing that sometimes looks like it’s out of control, he’s kept his strikeout rate around 24 percent, an excellent sign for his long-term outlook given the sheer size of his strike zone. He’s not the Cubs’ No. 1 prospect because he offers so much risk, but he has 30/30 upside in the middle of the field and a lot of other ways he could develop that would still make him an above-average or better everyday player.

2023 Ranking: 82

Jobe missed the first half of 2023 with a back injury, but when he returned, he threw better than he had in all of 2022, throwing 64 innings across four levels, striking out 84, and walking just six batters. Jobe works at 94-98 mph with a four-pitch mix that features a plus changeup, an above-average curveball in the low 80s, and a hard but short slider at 89-92, with huge spin rates on the heater and breaking balls. I have the slower pitch as the better one now and think that if he focuses on it he can get it to plus, as it already has tight rotation and huge vertical break. His delivery has effort to it even though it’s compact, with some head-whack at release, and he whips through the delivery so quickly he might not be generating enough of that velocity from his lower half. He’s a very good athlete, however, and should be able to make some adjustments if the Tigers want to try to reduce the effort involved. It’s No. 1 starter stuff and he at least has shown the kind of control to pitch atop a rotation, as long as he can stay healthy.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

Listed at just 5-6, 175, Williams had an outstanding full-season debut last year, hitting .263/.425/.451 across three levels while playing solid-ish defense at shortstop and showing plus speed on the bases. Williams has surprising power for his size, which I assume is more accurate than the claimed 5-8 when he was in high school, and hits the ball hard enough to keep his averages up and produce 10-15 homers a year. It’s a compact swing — how could it be otherwise? — that puts the ball in the air a ton, and he uses the whole field well. His shortstop defense gets mixed reviews, with some belief he’ll stay at the position, although it’s easy to imagine him sliding to second base if he can’t stay there.

2023 Ranking: 51

Lee was the eighth pick in the 2022 draft, a very advanced hitter who’d been on scouts’ radar as a top prospect since he was in high school. He confirmed that by going to Double A to start his first full pro season and hitting .292/.365/.476 there before an August promotion to Triple A, setting him up to reach the majors this year. He’s a switch-hitter with some effort to the swing, showing a big split last year between his production from the left side (.287/.366/.494) and right side (.231/.266/.337), with a history of high contact rates, especially on fastballs in the zone. He’s boosted his contact quality in the last year and hits a ton of line drives, as his swing finishes with enough loft to often put him in the ideal launch-angle range for line-drive contact. He’s mostly played shortstop in the minors, getting just seven starts at the hot corner last year, but his long-term position is more likely to be off shortstop — probably third base, as he has plenty of arm for the left side of the infield and soft enough hands for third. He should hit for a .280-.300 average with strong OBPs and homer totals in the teens, playing above-average or better defense at third or second base, or 45 defense at shortstop if he’s forced to stay there by injuries or other circumstances.

2023 Ranking: 37

Rafaela’s one of the most fascinating prospects in the minors, a 5-9 infielder/center fielder from Curaçao who hits the ball harder than you’d expect from someone his size, plays some of the best center-field defense anywhere in professional baseball, and might swing at a butterfly if it flew within 10 feet of him. He started his pro career at shortstop and third base, but he’s too inconsistent for short and ended up moving to second, where he’s plus, and center, where he might be an 80, with easy routes and at least 70 speed to cover huge tracts of land. As a hitter, he­ boasts great bat speed and can connect with a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, which worked well enough in the minors but was an area that major-league pitchers exploited during his 28-game MLB debut. He’ll probably never be much for the free pass, but if he just cuts down on the chase, he has the strength and the loft in his finish to at least hit for line-drive power — balls to the gaps that will become doubles and triples with his speed, plus probably 12-18 homers a year, although he did hit 22 last year across three levels. He’s not the sort of player I typically like with his undisciplined approach, but I think he has a chance to be the most valuable defensive outfielder in baseball, giving him a high floor and thus time to clean up the approach enough for the swing and speed to play.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

A pitcher and infielder at UNC Pembroke when the Padres drafted him in the 11th round in 2021, Ryan came to the Dodgers in a trade that sent Matt Beaty to San Diego. Once in the Dodgers’ system, Ryan became a full-time pitcher. He’s taken off since then, reaching Triple A last year in his second pro season, striking out almost a quarter of the batters he faced, and throwing four pitches that all at least flash plus. He’s up to 99 mph and pitches at 94-97 with a hammer curveball, sweepy slider, and hard fading changeup, dominating right-handed batters last year while showing some platoon split, particularly in OBP (he allowed a .388 OBP to lefties last year due to a 13 percent walk rate against them). He’s a superb athlete, as you’d expect from a former middle infielder, and his body looks ready to step into a major-league rotation now. He needs reps, as he still has just 152 professional innings on his resume, and in those reps he needs to continue to work on command of all of his pitches as well as his feel for the changeup. Ryan could be a No. 2 starter, and while I don’t think he’s ready for a major-league role just yet, he’s advanced so quickly he could easily make another big leap this spring and see Chavez Ravine before September.

2023 Ranking: 13

I wrote last year that the only thing that could stop Painter’s march to the majors was his injury risk, which unfortunately turned out to be more true than I anticipated — I thought it was just a possibility given his age, how hard he throws, and some very minor mechanical issues, but he ended up missing the year with a torn UCL, undergoing Tommy John surgery in July that will probably keep him out until this fall. When healthy, Painter shows No. 1 starter stuff, bumping 99 mph and sitting 94-97 with a hammer to make Thor jealous in his curveball, along with an above-average changeup he hadn’t begun to use enough and a slider that’s probably an unnecessary fourth pitch right now. He comes from a high three-quarters arm slot that, combined with his 6-7 height, makes it a very uncomfortable look for hitters on both sides of the plate. He’d also shown better control in his time in A-ball than he had even as an amateur, along with the ability to separate those two breaking balls in the curve and slider and use them in different spots. There’s risk with TJ surgery, from the slight chance he loses some velocity to the somewhat greater chance that his curveball isn’t the same afterwards (Lucas Giolito and Jay Groome had this happen). If all goes well with his rehab, perhaps he can throw in instructs or — and I admit to some self-interest here — the Arizona Fall League, which would set him up to start 2025 on something approaching a regular schedule. The ace upside is still there, just with more unknowns until we see him back on a mound and at full strength.

Photo:

Philadelphia Phillies

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

Lesko was cruising towards being a top-10 pick in 2022, maybe even one of the top five, when he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery after an electric (but, alas, injury-shortened) outing at the NHSI tournament at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, NC. Lesko had been up to 97 mph with a grade-70 changeup and a much improved curveball with incredibly high spin rates, surprising for someone who came into the spring with serious questions about whether he’d ever have a usable breaking ball. He returned in the middle of 2023 and finished the year in High A, throwing 33 innings in total to set him up for a full season of work in 2024. He had most of his stuff back, working 94-98 in short outings with that 70 changeup, while the breaking ball was inconsistent but could flash plus with big depth and that tight rotation again. His delivery has always been repeatable and he should be able to throw strikes and get to above-average command in time, although in his first year back he wasn’t close to average in either category. You can dream on him a little and see an ace because of the three pitches, one a no-doubt swing-and-miss pitch, and a delivery that works for a starter. I’d just like to see what his stuff and command look like over a fuller season in 2023 before going that far, and I’m more comfortable saying he’s a mid-rotation guy with a chance to be a No. 2 starter if he stays healthy.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Keith was the Tigers’ fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft, meaning he was their last one, and he has a good chance to end up their best player from that class — even better than No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson. Keith has great feel for the barrel and makes a ton of hard contact, improving his typical launch angle this past year to get the ball in the air more. That allowed him to go from 11 homers in 113 games in 2021-22 to 27 homers in 126 games last season. He’s topped 110 mph already despite a short swing that you might think would limit his impact. He’s turned himself into a capable third baseman, good enough to stay there, although he could also end up at second base to minimize any concerns about the arm strength not playing at the hot corner. I don’t think it matters much; even if he’s at first base, which now looks like a real worst-case scenario, he’ll hit enough to be at least a good regular with .280-.300 averages and 25-35 homer power. He’s athletic enough to be an average defender at second base with some work, though, and that could make him an easy 5-win player.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

There’s always at least one guy from every draft who goes out for a month or so after signing and makes people ask why he wasn’t drafted higher — Dalton Rushing was that guy in 2022, Zack Gelof in 2021 — and Emerson certainly did that last summer. The 22nd pick in 2023 went 15 for 28 in a week in the ACL and then hit .302/.436/.444 in 16 games in the Cal League when he was barely 18 years old, wowing scouts with his feel to hit for such a young player from an Ohio high school. Emerson has a loose, easy left-handed swing, favoring contact over power, without a lot of work coming from his lower half yet to drive the ball — something I imagine the Mariners will work on right away — although he already makes solid-average contact quality. He’s a 45 or barely 50 runner, not likely to stay at shortstop, and split time between there and second in his few weeks in the minors. Before the draft, I said he had the upside of a “high-average, 15 to 20-homer sort of hitter at second base,” and pro scouts and analysts seem to agree with that after his pro debut, but with more confidence than I had pre-draft that he’ll get there. It’s early days, but Seattle might have a steal on their hands.

2023 Ranking: Just missed

Williams was Tampa’s first-round pick in 2021, but at the time there were questions about multiple aspects of his game, including his power and even his running. He’s improved in just about every way since then, changing his gait to become a plus runner, building strength to hit 42 homers over the last two years, and developing into an easy plus defender at shortstop. What he does not do, however, is make enough contact, with a 31.4 percent strikeout rate during the regular season in 2023 and then a 36.5 percent rate in the hitter-friendly (and pitching-starved) Arizona Fall League. It’s a pitch recognition issue, as he really struggles against offspeed stuff even in the zone, yet doesn’t chase pitches all that often. When he makes contact, it’s generally high quality, so he doesn’t have to make a huge adjustment to become a star, just better distinguish non-fastballs and perhaps to stop swinging so hard at them. If he played on the other end of the defensive spectrum, he wouldn’t be on the top 100. As it is, though, he’s got four tools that are 6s or better, and if the hit tool just gets to 45, he’s going to be a very good big leaguer.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Jones was the Pirates’ second-round pick in the 2020 draft, a high school pitcher with arm strength and athleticism but a long way to go as a pitcher. Their patience is paying off, as he reached Triple A last year as a four-pitch guy who looks like he’ll at least be a league-average starter with more room to grow. He’s sitting mid-90s now, touching 100 mph, with a slider that’s gone from a 40 to presently close to a 60, getting into the low 90s with high spin and some sharp downward break. He throws all four pitches for strikes, with a changeup that’s good enough to keep lefties in check. His stuff did taper off as the season progressed, not excessively but enough to mention, and he may need to work on pacing himself in the earlier part of the year to stay strong through September in the longer big-league season. He’s the most polished of Pittsburgh’s upper-level pitching prospects and the most likely to come up and help in the majors this year. Whether his ceiling extends beyond that of a mid-rotation guy may come down to his in-season durability more than anything with his stuff or approach.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Signed last January for a $3.2 million bonus, Walcott, who born in The Bahamas, spent most of his first pro season in the U.S., earning huge raves from scouts who saw him launch seven homers in 35 games in the ACL as a 17-year-old. He’s got the potential for 70 power once he fills out, depending on how the hit tool develops from here. He swings very hard, producing the hard contact you’d expect from his swing, but he also struck out 32.3 percent of the time between rookie ball and four games in Low A (he also played nine games in the Dominican Summer League). Scouts felt like he made progress even within the summer in improving his swing decisions, and he did drop his strikeout rate significantly from July (49 percent) to August (22 percent), although that’s some pretty thin slicing there. He’s an average runner and definitely not a shortstop, even though he’ll probably play there a few more years until he outgrows it, with third base the most likely position long-term. There is the potential he gets so big he just ends up in an outfield corner. He’s the second-youngest player on the top 100, after Ethan Salas, and has the risk you’d expect from a teenager with so little experience. The fact that he did as well as he did is a great sign, however, and he has the strength and power to back up the hype.

2023 Ranking: 14

It’s been about as quick a fall from grace as you’ll see for Jones, who was the second pick in 2022 and No. 1 on many draft boards (including my own), but who required shoulder surgery before he even got into a pro game that summer and played just 41 games in 2023, struggling through much of it. Jones is a lot like his father, Andruw Jones, playing elite defense in center and showing plus power and speed on offense, but the comparison doesn’t help the son when the dad was already playing in the World Series at this age. Jones did hit the ball hard when he played last year, but too much of it was on the ground because his swing was a mess after the surgery and an offseason of rehab during which he couldn’t swing a bat. He didn’t look right in spring training, either in his mechanics or his conditioning, stepping in the bucket and barely getting his lower half involved at all. He played just 10 games in Low A in April before hurting his quad, and then hurt his hamstring while rehabbing in June, finally returning to Low-A Visalia on Aug. 15, 118 days after his last game at the level. He hit .296/.412/.437 in the last 19 games before he ran out of season, with a 23.5 percent strikeout rate, which came in a tiny sample but is a lot more consistent with the player everyone thought he’d be coming out of high school. I heard from scouts who buried him off their 2023 looks, and I can understand why. I also don’t think it’s reasonable to give up on a player who is this talented and was so good in high school when he had 14 months of injuries and never got extended playing time to correct what he was doing wrong at the plate. I’m inclined to call it a lost year and see how he looks this spring when he’s had a proper offseason to work on his body and swing.

2023 Ranking: 25

Montgomery missed the first half of 2023 with an oblique strain and then a strained muscle in his mid-back, finally returning to full-season ball on July 4 and to Double A (where he’d finished the previous season) on Aug. 1. He performed well at every level but never quite looked like he did in his torrid 2022 season, when he earned some comps to Corey Seager — another big shortstop who outlasted predictions that he’d move to third, including some from yours truly. Montgomery has a great approach at the plate, walking as much as he struck out last year, but the injury seemed to limit his flexibility and impacted his swing, making him much more dead-pull and causing him to roll over a lot of pitches he might have taken the other way in 2022. The consensus on his defense has shifted for the better, and it’s probably about even-money that he stays there in the eyes of the industry, with good reads and soft hands along with plenty of arm for that side of the dirt. I’m betting that the version Montgomery we saw last year, including the tight, slow look in the Arizona Fall League, is the result of rust and continued recovery. Given the chance to reset and come back as the high-contact, all-fields hitter we saw in his first full pro season, he should resume his march to Chicago and end up their everyday solution at short or third, with 4-5 WAR upside thanks to the hit tool and position.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Crawford was the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2022 out of a Las Vegas high school; he’s the son of Carl Crawford and cousin of J.P. Crawford. He’s a long way from being a finished product, but his tools are so good that he can outplay a lot of his deficiencies. He’s a 70 runner who can really play center field, while at the plate he’s already posted high exit velocities and can show big power the other way in BP that’s starting to emerge in games. He spent most of last year with Low-A Clearwater and hit .344/.399/.478 in 69 games with 40 steals before a late-season promotion to High A. He posted those solid numbers even with a lot of inconsistency in the swing that can cause him to get on top of the ball too often. He’s still got 10-15 pounds of room to fill out, which could make him a 20-homer, 50-steal guy who plays plus or better defense in center. He might be a level-a-year guy, though, as it takes time for him to fill out.

2023 Ranking: 95

Black is the sort of player you love if he’s on your team and hate if he’s in the other dugout, as he plays hard all the time, and will fight for every out and every ball or strike until the game ends. Drafted 33rd in 2021 out of Wright State, Black has real plate discipline and great feel for the barrel, with a .400+ OBP at High A, Double A, and Triple A over the last two seasons. His hands are quick and he’s short to the ball and through contact, so the swing is more conducive to low line drives and some groundballs than to power. He’s a 70 runner who should be able to play center and is adequate at second, although since shoulder surgery his arm hasn’t been great and the left side of the infield might be out of reach. It’s an unusual profile for first base, but I think he can produce a .400 OBP with 10-15 homers and a ton of value on the bases, which would be enough offense for the position even without huge power, and then the only real question would be if his height holds him back. His floor is a super-utility guy who still gets 400-500 PA a year playing all over the diamond, but I’m in the camp that says he’s a starter at second, in left or — if he’s not with Milwaukee — in center, and he’ll be a favorite of hometown fans once they see how he plays.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Acuña is the younger brother of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and went to the Mets as part of the return for Max Scherzer this past July. He’s only 5-8 but he’s ultra-twitchy and shows 60 raw power in BP and 65-70 running speed, although in games he can show more contact than power and might need a small swing adjustment to get to more than 12-15 homers a year. His contact quality improved from 2022 to 2023, which at least sets him up to be a high doubles guy and gives him a strong floor as a regular at some position up the middle. He’s a shortstop now and projects to stay there, with the speed and lateral range to handle it or move to center field if need be. As is, he’s probably a high-average, high-doubles shortstop who steals 40-50 bags a year, although I could see him trading some contact for more power and getting to 20 jacks. Either way, he’s got an above-average regular’s ceiling and a floor that should make Mets fans feel good about the trade.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Young was Seattle’s first-round pick in 2022, going 21st out of a Pittsburgh-area high school, and was their top prospect until Colt Emerson took the field in August. Young is also a left-handed-hitting middle infielder, but it’s a different profile, as Young’s a better athlete, better runner, and has a significantly better chance to stay at shortstop in the long run. He’s got a great feel for the barrel, with a strikeout rate last season under 15 percent. There were 13 minor leaguers who had 600+ plate appearances in 2023, and Young had the lowest strikeout rate of any of them, which is especially impressive since it was his first full pro season and he even moved up to High A after the All-Star break. He’s got a fairly simple swing and plenty of bat speed, although without a lot of loft in his finish he might peak around average power. It could be an elite hit tool, though, and even 8-12 homers a year would be plenty for a high-average, high-OBP shortstop to be an All-Star.

2023 Ranking: 48

Rodriguez missed about 2/3 of the 2022 season after a knee injury, but he impressed scouts with his power and approach in the limited time he played. He showed more of the same in a full season of work in 2023, moving to High A as a 20-year-old and hitting .240/.400/.463 with 92 walks in 99 games, although now it’s time for him to swing more often and convert those good counts into damage. He started out 2023 in horrific fashion, with a .163 average and 38.5 percent strikeout rate through the end of May, so the season line may not do him justice. He’s got a big leg kick, and when he swings, he swings pretty hard, with plus game power already and high exit velocities for his age, offering the possibility of a 30-homer corner bat with high walk totals. He’s a 55 runner who plays center now, with a body that’s probably going to slow down and push him to a corner as he gets into his 20s, with maybe average range up the middle as it is. He doesn’t chase much, with his high strikeout total more a function of running deep counts than poor recognition — he saw 4.29 pitches per PA last year, putting him in the top 5 percent of all minor leaguers with at least 400 PA, but needs to swing a little more at good strikes. There’s real upside with the bat if he translates the selectivity into more of the hard contact he’s already making when he does deign to swing.

2023 Ranking: 100

Chandler finally gave up trying to be a two-way player, and it’s probably not surprising that he made much more progress in 2023 just trying to pitch than he had the year before. Chandler has an incredible fastball, 94-98 mph with huge induced vertical, a pitch that, when he stops trying to be too fine in locating it, will be a wipeout offering. He pairs it with a 70 changeup and can spin two distinct breaking balls, although landing either of them is still a work in progress. As you might expect from a former shortstop/pitcher and high school quarterback, he’s an outstanding athlete and his delivery doesn’t have a ton of effort for the velocity it generates. He had some control issues early in the year, but finished strongly — his final nine starts, one of which came in Double A, had him throwing 48 2/3 innings with 51 strikeouts, 13 walks, and a 1.66 ERA. He’s got the highest ceiling of the Pirates’ trio of starter prospects (not named Paul Skenes) along with Jared Jones and lefty Anthony Solometo.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

In 2022, Horton was about as late a pop-up guy as you’ll ever find in the draft; he missed 2021 with Tommy John surgery, didn’t join the University of Oklahoma’s rotation until partway through the spring, and changed his breaking ball right before their postseason, turning into one of the best pitchers in the NCAA tournament field. The Cubs took him with the seventh-overall pick, a selection I thought was very risky given his scant track record of success, but he’s kept improving since they signed him and right now the pick looks brilliant. Horton was a two-pitch guy in college without anything for lefties, relying on an out-pitch slider up to 89 mph that had very sharp, late downward break, while touching 98 with the fastball. The Cubs helped him dust off his seldom-used changeup, and with more reps it’s become a plus pitch for him and can allow him to get by with a fastball that doesn’t have tremendous movement. He’ll have to work more on fastball command, but the fact that he finished his first full pro year in Double A, just 16 months after his season ERA for Oklahoma hit 7.94 when he got crushed in the Big 10 Tournament, is quite a story for him and for the Cubs. He looks like a mid-rotation starter, although with the speed of his development so far I might still be selling him short.

2023 Ranking: 17

Collier was the 18th pick in the 2022 draft out of Chipola College, where he’d played as a 17-year-old after graduating early from high school and moving to the junior college to enter the draft a year sooner. The son of former big leaguer Lou Collier, Cam is already pushing 6-3 and past his listed 210 pounds, enough that he’ll probably have to work on conditioning now rather than gaining strength so he can stay at third base. He’s a bat-first guy and projects to hit for average and power, showing good feel for the strike zone despite his youth and very rarely missing on pitches in the zone last year (with the caveat that the Florida State League has the ABS in place). After a slow start as one of the youngest players anywhere in full-season ball, Collier picked it up in the second half, hitting .290/.389/.395 with plenty of hard contact, topping out over 110 mph. He’s younger than five of the 11 high school position players taken in the first 30 picks of the 2023 draft, yet already has a full year of pro ball experience. He can still cut through the ball too often, hitting it on the ground way more than he should last year (53 percent in Low A) as he made contact on some pitches he should have let go by, and he has to avoid getting any bigger so he doesn’t end up moving to the outfield. He makes more than enough hard contact to project 25+ homers and strong batting averages as long as he continues to make adjustments as he faces better pitching up the ladder.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Luis hadn’t played in the U.S. before 2023 but finished his season in Low A, hitting four homers in 36 games for Visalia with a .257/.310/.417 line as a true 18 year old. He already shows tremendous bat speed and makes strong contact for his age and size, as he’s about 6 feet and still lean, with plus or better power projection when he fills out. He’s got a great swing for both average and power from both sides of the plate, showing solid swing decisions for his age with room for improvement as he gets older, especially as he faces better offspeed stuff. He’s a shortstop now, probably a 45 defender there when it’s all said and done and better off moving to second base, where he still has All-Star upside because of the bat.

2023 Ranking: 47

Tiedemann threw just 44 innings in the regular season around injuries to his left shoulder and biceps, making four starts in the AFL to try to make up for some of the lost time. He did regain the velocity that had been missing at the end of 2022, bumping 98 mph and pitching at 93-96 in the outing I saw in the desert, with a plus changeup and a big-breaking slider that wasn’t up to its past standard that day. The slider’s pretty high spin and has good tilt, giving him two real weapons, one for lefties and one for righties, which also helps as his fastball doesn’t have a ton of life or movement and hitters square it up more than the velocity might imply. His delivery isn’t ideal for durability, as his shoulder stays open late, with some sling to the arm stroke, and that might be putting undue pressure on the joint. You have to start a guy with these weapons, and if he stays healthy enough for it he’s a mid-rotation starter or better depending on the control (maybe 45 now, but he’s shown better) and command (40). Two years of missed time and suboptimal mechanics give him a lot of reliever risk, though.

2023 Ranking: 84

House was the Nats’ first-round pick in 2021, then he missed more than half of his first full pro season with a back injury and COVID-19, so this past season was more of a proper debut for the slugging third baseman. He hit .297 or better at three different levels, from Low A to Double A, and struck out less than a quarter of the time on the season as he showed much better offspeed recognition than he had previously. He even flashed some power, with 12 homers in 88 games, although I think the expectation for him is even higher than that. Unfortunately, House is over-aggressive at the plate, swinging first and asking questions later, walking less than 5 percent of the time between High A and Double A, so his batting average, while not empty, was also less than full: he hit .312/.365/.497 on the year. He’s awkward at third base at times because he’s so big, but he’s got plenty of arm and when I’ve seen him he’s made the routine plays. He doesn’t have to become a high-walk guy to be an above-average regular — stay at third and up the in-game power and he’ll get there even with a 5 percent walk rate, because he already hits the ball pretty hard and can get the ball in the air, if sometimes too much. There are a number of paths to success here as long as he can tighten up the pitch recognition.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Teel was the best catcher in the 2023 draft class, a three-year starter at UVA who probably would have gotten first-round money out of high school had the pandemic not wiped out his senior season in New Jersey. He’s an unusually good athlete and runner for a backstop, with excellent bat speed and a swing that produces line drives to the gaps with occasional over-the-fence power, although in college he did much more damage against right-handers, with softer contact versus southpaws. He was a solid-average defender in college, very active behind the plate with a plus arm, but was not good in Double A when Boston sent him there at the end of the season — quite likely tired from a long season but also showing he needs to simplify his movements back there to catch better quality stuff than he had to handle in Charlottesville. He could come into some pull-side power with a few small adjustments at the plate, depending on how Boston wants to develop him; a catcher who hits a ton of line drives and is at least an average receiver is good enough to make some All-Star teams, and he’d solve a problem the Red Sox have had for years at that position.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Scott played three years at West Virginia, hitting a composite .254/.368/.419 and never hitting .300 in any of his seasons there, which is probably how an 80 runner at a major-conference school ends up a fifth-round pick. He took off in his full-season debut last year, hitting for a higher average at High A, Double A, and in the Arizona Fall League than he did in any season for the Mountaineers, while also stealing 94 bags to tie for the professional lead. He’s a plus defender in center, closer to a 70 than a 60, and he’s been very hard to strike out in the minors, with just a 15.6 percent strikeout rate between High A and Double A, something that particularly matters when you can turn almost any groundball into a hit. He’s small, but not feeble like a lot of guys who run like he does, and über-athletic, which is part of how he’s been able to make such quick adjustments on both sides of the ball. The floor here seems very high — a plus defender in center who adds this kind of value on the bases would have to be positively anemic with the bat to have no real value — while he could have a long, long run as an everyday guy even with just 8-12-homer-a-year power, which I think is already within reach.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

The Rays took Taylor with the 19th pick in the 2023 draft after a solid year at TCU where he hit a career-high 23 homers but slumped some in the middle of the spring, perhaps pushing him down in a draft loaded with college position players. He has a beautiful left-handed swing with excellent loft in his finish, so he barrels a lot of balls and projects to get to above-average power at his peak. He’s a solid-average defender at third right now and might have a 60 arm, while he’s athletic enough to improve there with work or move to second base. He’s an average runner but a smart base stealer who hasn’t been caught stealing since 2021, going 36 for 36 across college, summer ball, and the minors in the last two calendar years. His low BABIP last spring in college (.307) seemed very fluky based on his hard contact rates and typical launch angles, so it’s possible, even likely, that the Rays landed a top-10 talent here because he had an unlucky spring. I see an average regular who gets to the majors pretty quickly, with the potential to be a 55 or more if the defense improves and he reaches his 20-25 homer ceiling.

2023 Ranking: Just missed

The Jays challenged Martinez with an assignment to Double A to start 2022 when he was just 20 years old and had only 27 games of High-A experience, so it wasn’t a huge shock that he struggled, hitting .203/.286/.446 with a 28.4 percent strikeout rate. The Jays returned him to Double-A New Hampshire in 2023 and he looked like a different guy, improving his swing decisions across the board, posting the best walk rate of his career and his lowest strikeout rate since Rookie ball. He’s always had the raw power, with 86 homers across the last three seasons, but needed to hit enough to get to it, so improving not just the raw contact and walk numbers but getting into better counts and choosing better pitches to attack was and still is the key for him to be more than an extra guy in the majors. He can handle shortstop if need be but at best he’ll be an average defender there; I’ve seen him at third and think he can be above-average at the hot corner, while some scouts think second base will be his eventual home. A 30-homer, .320-330 OBP hitter at either spot is an everyday player on just about any club, and that’s his upside if he keeps working on his approach.

2023 Ranking: 94

Before he was traded to the Brewers in the Corbin Burnes deal last week, I wrote that Ortiz should be someone’s starting shortstop now, but he has the misfortune to play in an organization that has shortstops coming out of its ears — which should make him a very valuable player for hot stove purposes, as he can step into a big-league role right away. He’s a plus defender at short with a strong and accurate arm and he remade his swing and his body during the pandemic, returning much stronger and with a swing that drives the ball effectively to the gaps and gives him a chance for 15-20 homers a year. His exit velocity peaked around 115 mph in Triple A last year, and he makes contact at consistently high rates, under 20 percent strikeout rates everywhere he’s played except for his 34 scattered PA in the majors. A .280/.340/.450-ish hitter who adds 5 or so runs of value on defense is a pretty valuable player, I think, and while there’s no further ceiling or projection here, that ought to be enough to get him a starting job.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Nimmala was one of the youngest players in the 2023 draft class, turning 18 this past October; he fell to the 20th pick, where the Blue Jays were ecstatic to get a player I’d ranked as a top-10 talent. Nimmala offers the upside of a true shortstop with 25+ homer power, with good actions at short and a plus arm, while he can show a powerful and efficient right-handed swing that should launch balls as he fills out. He’s still physically immature, hardly surprising for his age, and as he gets stronger he might start to run a little better and drive the ball harder while also getting more consistent around the bag at short. He showed a little swing and miss in high school, but in a brief stint in the complex league he actually displayed more patience and very little tendency to chase. He’s going to be younger this season than some guys in the upcoming draft, and there’s no rush to send him right to full-season ball. Now that commissioner Rob Manfred has axed the short-season level between Low A and the complexes, there isn’t an ideal spot for a guy like Nimmala, but I hope the Jays play it conservatively given his age and his upside.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Lowder was the second pitcher taken in the 2023 draft, going seventh to the Reds after a tremendous spring for Wake Forest where he finished fourth in Division I with 143 strikeouts. He’s got a funky, deceptive delivery and shows three average or better pitches, with a fastball that can be plus but will probably be more 55 when he’s working on five days’ rest, a 70 changeup that was among the best in the class, and a solid-average slider. Hitters don’t see the ball well out of his hand, so his stuff plays up, and he also was able to get away with 45 command at best in the amateur ranks. There’s a limit to how far he can go with that delivery, as it’s going to be hard for him to be a good command guy and he might see his very low walk rates creep up as he gets to Double A and above, but he should also get to the majors quickly and could pitch for a decade or more as a No. 3 or 4 starter who soaks up innings.

2023 Ranking: 65

The Mariners have had a great run of first-round picks the last six years; starting in 2018, they took Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Ford, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson, so that’s two above-average big-league starters and three guys currently on this top-100. Ford has always been a work-in-progress as a catcher, as he’s super athletic but was really rough at the position as an amateur. He’s made enough progress that it seems like he could stay at the position, although he’s probably still on the low side of average when it comes to receiving and blocking. He may also hit his way off the position, as he shows elite strike zone judgment, ranking third in the minors in walks last year with 103 and striking out less than 20 percent of the time — although even that is surprising given how infrequently he chases. He might be better off sacrificing some contact for more power, as he’s strong enough to at least be a 40 doubles/15 homers guy, but his swing is incredibly short to the ball and right now it’s below-average game power as a result. He hits a lot like he’s always trying to keep his hands inside the ball, which is a great skill to have but not useful for all pitches in all locations. There are multiple paths for Ford to become a big-league starter — he could just improve his defense to the point where he stays there, and then the bat will play immediately; he could move to somewhere on the infield, where the bat would play but you’d like a little more power; or he could take his athleticism and speed to the outfield, easing the defensive concerns and strain on his body but then almost requiring more in-game power. I’ll bet on an athlete who knows the strike zone, though.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Kjerstad reached the majors last year in just his second pro season, and I don’t think enough attention has been paid to how tough a road he had from draft day to the big leagues. Kjerstad developed myocarditis after a bout with COVID-19 in 2020, missing all of 2021 while recovering from the condition, and when he returned in 2022 he looked rusty and had trouble catching up to good velocity — nothing like the player he was at Arkansas in 2019-20. Last year, he was all the way back and then some, making consistent hard contact and more of it than before; when the O’s picked him second in 2020, his high strikeout rates against SEC pitching stood out as a red flag, but last year he showed the best two-strike approach of his career and kept his season strikeout rate under 20 percent until he reached the majors. There’s still more chase than you’d like to see in a corner outfielder whose value is mostly in the bat, and lefties are going to attack him with spin until he shows he can lay off it. Because he hits the ball so hard, so often, I think he can be an above-average hitter even if his strikeout rate drifts north of 25 percent, probably getting to 20-25 homers a year and a high BABIP as well. And maybe then I’ll stop joking about how his name sounds like the lead singer of a melodic death metal band or a storage unit you’d buy at IKEA.

2023 Ranking: 85

Pereira wasn’t ready for the majors last year, but that doesn’t dim his long-term outlook as a potential regular for someone, maybe as a center fielder who can get to 30 homers once his approach catches up with his tools. He has outstanding bat speed, producing a ton of hard contact with a swing that should produce plus power over time and is very short to the ball but explosive once he begins, then with good loft in his finish for some big flies. He’s a 55 runner now with a plus arm and can play center field, although it’s possible that he’ll be pushed to a corner if he loses some speed as he finishes filling out. He struggled with offspeed recognition even in the minors, notably changeups, and that caused him further trouble in the big leagues, as did his habit of expanding the zone too quickly. The Juan Soto trade might be the best thing for him, as it’ll give him plenty of time in Triple A to work on his plan at the plate, laying off more of those pitches out of the zone and better identifying non-fastballs. There’s risk here but if he both stays up the middle and gets to his power peak, he’ll be an All-Star.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Bradfield is an 80 runner and either a 70 or 80 defender in center, depending on who you ask and perhaps when you see him, not that it matters that much in the end — he’s got two top-end tools, and that gives him a high floor and a lot of runway to work on the other aspects of his game. Bradfield seemed like a lock for a top-10 pick after his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he hit .336/.451/.414 as a 19-year-old in the SEC, stealing 47 bases in 53 attempts, but somewhere, someone convinced him to change his swing to try to hit for power, and while he did go from 1 homer as a freshman to hitting 14 the next two seasons, his overall hitting went backward and I think helped Baltimore land him at pick 15 last season. (It did not help that Bradfield constantly tried to bunt for hits, putting himself behind in the count and doing nothing to right his swing. I have a lot of feelings about this.) He’s not a power hitter, but he’s not powerless, if that makes sense — he is capable of putting 5-10 balls in the seats a year, but the more he tries to do so, the worse he’ll be as a hitter. Last spring, he was loading his hands extremely deep, taking a huge stride, opening his hips way too early, then collapsing his back side to try to lift — or will — the ball out of the park. He needs a simpler approach, like the one he had as a freshman, that focuses on putting the ball in play, as he’ll end up with a lot of extra bases thanks to his speed, and he does have enough strength to drive balls to the gaps and catch up to major-league fastballs. I don’t change players’ rankings or evaluations based on their parent organizations, since that could change at any time, but I think Bradfield is in an organization that will figure out what to do with him very quickly. At worst, you’ve got an elite fourth outfielder/pinch runner, while the ceiling here is huge defensive impact with an average bat.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Troy was the 12th pick in 2023 after a strong junior year at Stanford where he hit .394/.478/.699 as the Cardinal’s primary third baseman — and he did it playing most of the season with a broken bone in his foot that he didn’t get fixed until the fall. He’s an advanced hitter who showed strong exit velocities this spring, although he needed to get the ball in the air more often (again, bearing in mind the broken foot). His bigger question is his ultimate position; he’s athletic enough for the infield, third base or second most likely, but his footwork isn’t great and he may end up in the outfield. The bat should profile anywhere, although he’s quite a bit more valuable if he can just be a 45 defender at second base than he would be in left field.

2023 Ranking: 80

Manzardo was the Rays’ second-round pick in 2021 out of Washington State, where he showed outstanding feel to hit but didn’t put the ball over the fence as much as you’d expect for his size or want for his lack of defensive value. Traded to Cleveland this past July for Aaron Civale, Manzardo started turning on the ball a lot more after he came off the injured list (for a shoulder issue) in August, with six homers in 21 games for Triple-A Columbus and six more in 22 games in the Arizona Fall League. He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who doesn’t chase much and almost never misses on fastballs, destroying right-handed pitching with some trouble with lefties — he makes enough contact but had a .195 BABIP against them last year, which feels fluky given how hard he typically hits the ball. His best position is in the batter’s box and you’ll have to live with some limited defense at first base, which caps his ceiling somewhat, but if he closes that platoon split (or if it turns out to be at least partly bad luck) he’s got a .380-.400 OBP, 30 homer ceiling that will play anywhere.

2023 Ranking: 92

Quero went from the Angels to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito trade, giving Chicago a bona fide catching prospect for the first time since … Josh Phegley, maybe? It’s been a minute, but they landed a good one in Quero, who has shown exceptional zone awareness for his age and has very real bat-to-ball skills already. He’s a true switch-hitter with high walk and contact rates from both sides, flashing a little pull power but probably maxing out at 10-15 homers a year. He put on a little too much lower-body weight last year, possibly an effort to get him more juice at the plate, but it seemed to slow him down a little defensively. He’s a solid-average catcher overall, improving a little each year and capable of becoming a 55 or better if he continues to work on consistency in receiving and blocking. He has just an average arm, which might be the only drawback to his game. Otherwise, you can project an everyday catcher with 50-55 defense, an OBP north of .350, and a little pop, which is a starter on the majority of MLB teams.

2023 Ranking: 74

Busch is the oldest guy on the list this year and just barely still qualifies — one more day on an MLB roster would have put him over the rookie-eligibility limit — but he’s ready for everyday duty in the majors right now, and after this winter’s trade to the Cubs, it looks like he’ll get that opportunity. He’s hit pretty much everywhere he’s played, showing power and hard contact over the last three seasons between Double A and Triple A, while cutting his K-rate significantly while repeating Triple A this past year (26 percent to 19 percent). Even with 61 homers over the last two years, though, he doesn’t project as a 25-30 homer guy in the majors, with a swing that’s more geared towards low line drives. In his 81 PA with the Dodgers last year, that swing resulted in an uncharacteristically high ground-ball rate (58.7 percent, compared to 38.5 percent in his Triple-A time). He’s played first, second, third, and left field in pro ball, looking rough at third but playable at second, while first base is his best position and, fortunately, it’s where the Cubs will ask him to play. I think he’ll end up with an OBP in the .340-350 range and 18-22 homers a year with 30+ doubles, which would make him a solid to above-average regular at first as long as his defense is right around average.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Ramos missed most of the first two months of the 2023 season with a lower abdomen injury and took a little while to get rolling, but ended up with a .271/.369/.457 line as a 21-year-old in Double A. He hit 14 homers in 77 Double-A games, peaking at 111 mph with consistently hard contact. He swings one way, hard, and it’s very rotational, so that might be how the ab injury happened in the first place. Maintaining that core strength will be key for him going forward; he might naturally come into a little more power but he’s strong enough now for 25 homers, so developing the rest of his game is more important. His approach is solid for his age, as he doesn’t expand the zone too easily and kept his strikeout rate in Double A to just under 22 percent, even though he does swing hard pretty much all the time. He’s also a solid-average defender at third with a 55 arm, and could move to second if need be. Ramos could end up doing a little of everything, hitting for average with a 10 percent walk rate and 20-25 homers, and if the version from late in the Arizona Fall League — using the whole field while looking for pitches to pull — carries over, he might be more of a 30-homer guy who cracks some All-Star teams.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Thompson was Colorado’s second pick in the 2022 draft at No. 31. He arrived in pro ball as an advanced hitter from the University of Florida with an uncertain positional profile. The Rockies have moved him around the diamond a bunch, trying him at third and second while giving him some time in the outfield, although in the end it’s his bat that will carry him. Thompson might have a true plus hit tool already, with a pretty simple swing and excellent bat speed, rotating his hips enough to get to at least average power, and he’s shown he can hit left-handed pitching so far in pro ball. He’s best in an outfield corner who has shown he can make the routine plays at second or third to give him some versatility and open up more paths to the majors. There was concern when he was an amateur that he’d have to play first base and might not have the power to profile there; I don’t think either of those things is true at this point, especially not the positional questions, as he’s fine in the outfield and looks like he’ll at least have the average/doubles power to be a strong regular there. He should see the majors at some point this year and could very quickly become the Rockies’ best hitter for average.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Wilken was the Brewers’ first-round pick in 2023 from a loaded Wake Forest team that had two first-rounders and three more guys taken in the second/third rounds last year, and that might have as many as five first-rounders this upcoming year. Even with a big slump in the middle of last spring, Wilken still hit 31 homers for the Deacons — whose home park is homer-friendly — and shows 55 power right now, with excellent balance and hip rotation that point to the potential for more down the road. He’s a hitter first with very high barrel rates in college and solid ball/strike recognition, so he’s comfortable running deep counts. I’m not saying he’s Jeff Bagwell, but that’s the archetype of the young hitter who hits the ball pretty hard, knows the strike zone, and has to grow into more power, so I could see Wilken becoming a 25-homer guy who still posts high OBPs. He’s a solid-average defender at third with a 55 arm, capable of making some difficult plays but needing more consistency on routine ones, with some concern that as the game speeds up he might have trouble maintaining the glove. Even at first base, where the Brewers do have a long-term need anyway, his bat should still make him a solid regular or more.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Snelling was the 39th pick in the 2022 draft, a pitcher-quarterback-linebacker who enticed scouts with his size, athleticism, and arm strength. He made his full-season debut last year and showed superb control at Low A and High A before a late promotion to Double A, where he walked more guys but remained hard to hit. He’s a very strong, physical kid, not overly muscled up although he’ll have to work to remain that way, working 92-96 mph most of the time with a 55 slider and 55 changeup, but nothing clearly plus right now. There’s some effort to his delivery and head-jerk at release, while he can slow his arm down when he’s not throwing his fastball, something hitters will pick up sooner rather than later. He’s also barely 20 and split his time in high school between two sports, so he should have more room to grow than the typical second-year pitcher would. There’s reliever risk, but a No. 2 or 3 starter ceiling, with the median outcome probably more around a fourth starter who’s got some above-average years and some below-average ones.

2023 Ranking: 63

Hence was a slight 17-year-old when the Cardinals drafted him in the second round in 2020 — the same draft class that landed them Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Alec Burleson. He pitched just eight innings in 2021 around some minor injury stuff and general workload management, but he took off in 2022 and followed that up with a career-high 96 innings in 2023. Hence is an excellent athlete and has a lightning-quick arm, although it hasn’t translated into a plus breaking ball of any sort yet. He sits 94-96 mph and can reach 98, with a plus or plus-plus changeup already and a slurvy low-80s breaker that’s effective now but that he doesn’t command or finish that well. He’s extremely athletic and has continued to fill out and get stronger to hold his stuff and work deeper into games, so there’s hope he can find a better third pitch, but so far he hasn’t shown much ability to spin or manipulate the ball and the slurve works in part because the fastball/changeup discombobulate hitters (except at the Milwaukee airport). Hence has a very high floor in relief, as he has great arm speed on the changeup and it falls right off the table as it approaches the plate, so he has the two pitches to dominate in short bursts. The hope is he can tighten up the breaking ball or try another one, even a cutter, to give him enough of a third weapon to turn a lineup over three times and be a mid-rotation guy.

2023 Ranking: 71

Cavalli reached the majors at the end of 2022, making one start before hitting the injured list and eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery last March that wiped out his 2023 season. Prior to the injury, he showed size, stuff, athleticism, and the need to work on command and sequencing, things that you hope would come with more repetitions. He’s got easy plus velocity on the fastball and works with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a curveball that has power and depth and moves in a different direction than his other pitches, allowing him to play more with sequencing to change hitters’ eye levels and expectations. He has a solid changeup that he uses primarily against left-handed batters, with almost no platoon split in 2022, and a short slider that’s hard and cutter-like in shape and function. Once he returns at some point this spring, he’ll be working to regain his feel, but also to pound the zone more and work on mixing his pitches more effectively. He still has that mid-rotation, innings-eater upside, assuming anyone even remembers what that means at this point.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Seldom has there been a better fit between a player in the draft and the team that took him. Dollander was the best pitcher in college baseball as a sophomore, with a 2.39 ERA for Tennessee that was built on a 35 percent strikeout rate, 4 percent walk rate, and a wipeout slider that looked like it would put him in play for the first pick in 2023. Alas, he changed his grip on the slider to try to make it more of a sweeper — I have heard he did it, Tennessee’s coaches did it, some third party told him to do it, and don’t really know the truth — making it not just worse but often ineffective, as he’d go entire starts without getting a swing and miss on it. The good news is that he’s aware of it and, with the Rockies’ help, the plan is to restore his 2022 slider, which would make him a steal — the sort of high-end starter the team needs, someone who’s probably a No. 2 starter with some small but non-zero chance of becoming an ace. He’s 93-97 mph and fills up the zone with it, touching 99, and if there’s a silver lining to the loss of his slider last year it’s that he used his changeup more, improving his feel to the point where it’s a solid-average third pitch for him. The slider was a legit 70 in 2022, with very tight rotation and late downward break, the opposite of sweep — and hey, I know the “sweeper” is all the rage right now, but traditional sliders are people too, right? I’m very hopeful that he’ll go out to High A to start the year and dominate between that out pitch and the control he’d shown prior to 2023, getting to Double-A Hartford by midyear and banging on the door of the big leagues.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Nastrini went to the White Sox in the trade that sent Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, a tremendous deal for the Sox that also netted them power-armed relief prospect Jordan Leasure. Nastrini was the Dodgers’ fourth-round pick in 2021 off a spring at UCLA where he walked 38 guys in 31 innings, a hell of a job by Los Angeles’ amateur scouting group, as he’s improved a ton since the moment he signed and projects as a fourth starter or better depending on how much further his command and control develop. He works with four pitches, sitting 93-96 mph with a plus changeup and plus slider. He has a pretty consistent delivery and traditional three-quarters arm slot that doesn’t give him a ton of deception; he gives up a lot of contact in the air, so there’s a risk he becomes homer-prone or at least prone to extra-base hits as he moves up the ladder. The fastball might be his worst pitch, but he has three other weapons to use, with the changeup possibly a 70 given how much trouble hitters have with it. It doesn’t have terrific action, but it looks just like the heater coming out of his hand, and hitters missed it more than half the time they swung at it last year. There’s still some relief risk as he walked about 11 percent of batters he faced last year and will have to work to limit hard contact. His 2023 season had more positives than negatives, however, and the odds of him remaining a starter went over 50 percent for the first time.

2023 Ranking: 24

A funny thing happened while Mead was working his way to the majors last year: The guy the Rays traded to acquire him, lefty Cristopher Sánchez, moved into the rotation and threw up a 2.2 WAR season for the Phillies, so now that trade doesn’t look as lopsided as it did when the Phillies dealt a top-100 prospect for a fringy reliever. Mead was hit by a pitch on his wrist at the end of April in Triple A, so while he did debut in the majors later in the year he didn’t show the consistent contact quality he’d shown in previous years, although his exit velocity did still peak at 108 mph in the majors. He looked rough defensively at third and second in the majors but didn’t grade out as badly as you’d expect by defensive metrics; I doubt he’ll ever be more than fringy at third, but if he’s just adequate there — no worse than 2-3 runs below average a year — the bat should play. Expect solid averages with a ton of doubles, low walk and strikeout rates, and probably more complaints about his defense than it actually merits.

2023 Ranking: 58

Arroyo had a so-so campaign as a 19-year-old in High A last season, hitting .248/.321/.427 in 119 games with a lot of contact (21 percent strikeout rate) but without any real progress in the quality of contact or his game power over 2022. He’s a bat-first prospect who can handle shortstop, flashing above-average range but grading out around average overall by other teams’ analysts, offering true switch-hit potential and the upside of 15 or so homers a year if he fills out as expected. He’s got a live bat with quick hands and handles fastballs well for someone who isn’t that strong yet, but he has trouble with spin on both sides of the plate, especially when he’s batting left-handed — that is, the more important side. He’s an above-average runner who has good instincts on the bases and should rack up 30 steals a year in the majors. It’s a lot more projection today than it seemed like a year ago, after the Reds added him in the Luis Castillo trade and he hit well in two stops in Low A. He needs to get stronger, to pick up breaking pitches more easily, and to at least get more consistency on defense. He’s also just 20 years old and ready to go to Double A, so his performance looks a lot better in context. The upside of an everyday shortstop and switch-hitter with a little pop is still there; I think he’s just further away from it than I thought he was last offseason.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Schultz was Chicago’s first-round pick in 2022, a local kid who’d missed much of that spring with mono but offered a ton of projection on velocity and his slider — not to mention the upside of a 6-9 lefty with great extension. The projection started to show up in 2023 as he often worked 93-96 mph with huge sink and tail along with a plus slider that, from his lower arm slot, makes him deadly to left-handed batters, with obvious comparisons to Chris Sale, who changed his hand position on his slider after signing and became, well, Chris Sale. There’s a ton of risk here between Schultz’s injury history and his size, so it’s maybe 50/50 whether he remains a starter. Schultz’s 2023 season ended in late August when he suffered a shoulder impingement, although he should be ready to go for spring training, and the history of 6-9 or taller pitchers in general is not great for health or command. You can see No. 1 starter upside, or top-end reliever potential, depending on his health and how his coordination improves as he fills out his huge frame.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Waldrep’s splitter was one of the best pitches in the draft last year, helping him rank third in Division I with 156 strikeouts, but he used the pitch too often and his overall line suffered a little, which may be how a guy who touched 99 mph with a bona fide out-pitch slid to the 24th pick in the draft. Atlanta grabbed him and, bucking every industry trend, had him throw 29 1/3 innings in pro ball in his debut, finishing with a single start in Triple A. The splitter is just sick — it looks like a fastball out of his hand, has good velo separation from the heater at 85-89, and has huge bottom to it, yanked downward by some invisible zombie hand coming out of the ground like in the “Thriller” video. It also finishes out of the zone too often to be his go-to pitch — it’s a chase pitch, and a great one, but that’s all, and he’ll need to use all four pitches together to be a big-league starter. He has a curve and slider, either of which would likely improve with use, as in college he wouldn’t finish them out front, while his fastball sits 95 but doesn’t have great ride or life. He may never have more than average control, so he’ll really have to mix the four pitches to keep hitters off balance and generate more swings and misses. If not, he’s an easy guy to move to the bullpen, where he could junk one of the breaking balls and would be fine using the splitter at a higher rate than he can as a starter.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Delauter missed 15 months with a broken foot he suffered in college in 2022, re-aggravating the injury while rehabbing. He didn’t make his pro debut until a year after the Guardians took him with the 16th pick in the 2022 draft. He’s only played in 57 pro games, plus 23 more in the AFL, but to his credit he’s hit at every level up through a six-game stint in Double A, even with an ugly swing that doesn’t look like it’ll produce power or even let him be consistently on time. He’s an excellent athlete who might be a plus runner at full health and definitely has a plus arm, with the potential for big defensive value in right field. He’s shown great feel for the strike zone everywhere he’s ever played, including his time at James Madison and a summer on Cape Cod, where he was one of just four regulars to walk more than he struck out. It is a really unfortunate swing, though; he opens his hips early and all but drags the bat to the zone that makes it look like he’s trying to scoop the ball with the bat head and poke it to right field. He hasn’t seen much velocity yet in pro ball, so he may not be tested until this year when he’s playing in Double A or Triple A. There’s real upside here with his defense and the contact skills he’s demonstrated, but the bad swing and injury history point to the downside risk that he’s just an extra outfielder. He reminds me some of Brett Jackson, another first-rounder with an awkward swing but great athleticism who hit everywhere he played until the majors.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

Fernandez destroyed High A last year in just his second season in the U.S., as the Cuban outfielder signed in 2019 and debuted in 2021 in the DSL, finally seeing full-season ball in 2022 in the Cal League. In 2023, he hit .319/.355/.605 for High-A Spokane in 58 games, then struggled after a promotion to Double A, hitting .206/.262/.362 in the more pitcher-friendly Eastern League. He makes very hard contact and projects to 30-homer power in a neutral environment, while he has the easy plus arm to handle right field, although his range will probably be 45ish in either corner. It comes down to discipline, as he chases too many pitches out of the zone, and Double-A arms were able to exploit this with breaking stuff where A-ball guys weren’t. He’s a good enough bad-ball hitter to get away with expanding the zone a little, just not to the extent that he did after his promotion. There’s too much power and strength here to ignore, and the environments he’ll face in Triple A and the majors will help him even if he never gets past 45 plate discipline, with .300+ averages and 30 homers quite possible with Coors Field as his home park.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Lin barely cracked my top-20 Diamondbacks prospects last year, as he wasn’t throwing that hard (around 89-90 mph) and got inexperienced hitters out because he had such good offspeed stuff. He topped out in 2023 at 94, and the secondaries are still there, while he keeps adding and tinkering with his arsenal, throwing a true screwball (which already makes me a fan), a plus changeup, a curve, a slider, and now a cutter as well. He’s very athletic and fiercely competitive, fielding his position extremely well, and now that he’s got a big-league fastball it’s a lot easier to see him staying in the rotation. He doesn’t walk guys because he’s aggressive when he gets to 3-ball counts, but it’s 45 control right now as he gets a lot of chases on the secondaries. He dominated High A and moved up to Double-A Amarillo — an extreme hitter’s park — midseason, becoming homer-prone at home (6 HRA in 34 2/3 innings) but not on the road (1 HRA in 26 1/3 innings). Lin is going to face a lot of bias because he’s small (listed at 5-11, 160, but height don’t measure heart … or changeups) and because he’s from Taiwan, which so far has produced only two successful MLB starters, Chien-Ming Wang and Wei-Yin Chen. Neither of those is a real issue here — he’s got the weapons, the poise, the competitiveness, and the athleticism to start, and if he holds this stuff while improving his command and control, he has mid-rotation potential.

2023 Ranking: 21

Luciano started the year on the IL while recovering from a stress fracture in his lower back, finally got rolling after some time in Double A, then ended up in the big leagues and was mostly overmatched. He did hit the ball very hard in the majors, as he’s done everywhere when healthy, and he’s able to keep up with fastballs, but offspeed stuff was an issue even in Double A, and killed him at the next two stops — he went from a 30 percent strikeout rate in Double A to 35 percent in Triple A to 37 percent in the big leagues, which is all an argument that he should have stayed at Double A until he showed better non-fastball recognition. He’s also not a shortstop, and I think moving him to left field might allow him to focus more on developing the bat while also perhaps keeping him healthy. He’s still quite young, just 22 all season with barely 300 professional games on his resume, and he’s got a strong swing that’s geared for 25-30 homers. I never bought him as a shortstop, or really even a second baseman, but I thought the bat would be more advanced than this. He can still be an above-average regular if the Giants give him the time to develop his pitch recognition.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Eldridge was a two-way prospect in high school who was 91-95 mph off the mound but without an average second pitch, so his future always seemed to be in the batter’s box. He’s 6-7 and can show you the huge power that you associate with those taller guys, but unlike most hitters his size, he has a very short swing and there’s reason to hope he’ll be an outlier among his peers when it comes to contact rate. His technique is geared toward putting the ball in play rather than a dead-pull approach to show off his power, so he goes the other way comfortably and hits the ball very hard when he does so. He was bothered by an ankle injury for the latter half of the spring and wasn’t running that well even over the summer when the Giants moved him to right field from his high school position of first base, although I’d reserve judgment on his outfield defense until this season when we see him at full go. There’s definitely risk here, as the history of hitters 6-7 and up is not great because their size typically means they swing and miss too often; the exceptions have done it with huge power, like Aaron Judge and the late Frank Howard. Eldridge’s ceiling is one where the power comes, but he also maintains a higher contact rate than other lowercase-g giants because of the shape of his swing.

2023 Ranking: 62

Rushing was the Dodgers’ second-round pick in 2022, when they didn’t have a first-round selection. After signing, he hit .424/.539/.778 in 28 games in Low A — a small sample, sure, but early reports from pro scouts were of the “how did the Dodgers get this guy in the second round?” variety. The University of Louisville alum’s full-season debut was more of a mixed bag, as he moved to High A and hit .228/.404/.452 in 89 games, playing average defense with an average arm and working well with pitchers. The low average is a surprise for an ACC product in High A, as he wasn’t young for the level, and some of the concerns from his college days that he had trouble hitting velocity popped back up last year — he didn’t see a ton of big velo, but struggled against it when he did. On the plus side, he has a very disciplined approach with strong ball/strike recognition and a commensurately low chase rate, and he makes hard enough contact that his .276 BABIP may include some bad luck. The bar is low for an everyday catcher; if you can hit 20 homers and draw a bunch of walks with average defense, you may be able to start in the big leagues. I’m just a little more concerned about Rushing’s bat than I was a year ago.

2023 Ranking: 56

Jung was the 12th pick in the 2022 draft after two fantastic years hitting for Texas Tech. He did bring questions about his position and his unorthodox setup at the plate to pro ball, one of which I think has been answered. Jung starts with his hands way back and above his rear shoulder, which you’d expect to cause timing problems, but so far he’s at least shown he can make hard contact, with 28 homers between High A and Double A last year with solid (but not elite) exit velocities. He did show some holes after he moved to Double A, particularly missing fastballs up in the zone and sliders in and below it, which reawakened those concerns about his hand setup and timing, although the Tigers have some positive experience helping hitters simplify their swings (notably Parker Meadows) to reduce those concerns. Of more import is Jung’s need for a position — he’s heavy-footed, far more so than his brother Josh, and while his defense at second graded out well by some team metrics, he’s not very mobile and I don’t think he’ll ever offer much range. If he’s a 45 defender at second with this sort of 60-70 extra-base-hits-a-year profile, he’s an above-average regular. He still has those same two questions to answer this year in Double A, however.

2023 Ranking: 72

It was a lost year for Bleis in 2023, as he hit .230/.282/.325 in his first taste of Low A, but hurt his shoulder after 31 games and underwent season-ending surgery. He’d had previous subluxations in that shoulder, so the hope is the surgery will clear that issue up permanently and let him get back to hitting. He’ll show five tools, with 60 raw power and 55 speed that would allow him to stay in center long-term if he doesn’t lose speed as he fills out, and he has great bat speed that’s undermined by a poor approach and some extra movement before he gets the barrel going toward the zone. He’s looking fastball too often, so he struggled with pitch and ball/strike recognition in 2022 and his brief stint in 2023, chasing secondary stuff out of the zone more than he should, but that’s the sort of thing that only improves with playing time. I wrote last year that I wouldn’t “be shocked or too dismayed if he struggles early in Low A as an inexperienced 19-year-old,” and that did happen, but he never got a chance to make adjustments. There’s still high-average/25-homer potential in a center fielder here. Depending on his shoulder strength — he’s supposed to be full go for spring training, at least — and how much time he needs to shake off the rust, however, any progress might not come until later in the year.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Miller had a chance to go in the top half of the first round in 2023, but a broken hamate bone took him out for almost the entire spring, so he had to make up some ground in pre-draft workouts and ended up going to the Phillies at pick No. 27. He has big power already even with a fairly simple swing, impressing multiple teams in those workouts with how the power played in big-league stadiums, although the sense is that the power tool may be ahead of the hit tool. He likes the ball middle-away so he can get his arms extended, and he had difficulty with pitches on the inner-third when he was playing in games the previous summer. He played shortstop in 18 games after the Phillies signed him, but he’s going to be a third baseman, as he doesn’t have close to the agility or range for short while his hands and arm would play well at third. By spring training he’ll be a year off the hamate injury and should have his full strength back, at which point we’ll see if the Phillies got a steal — maybe an everyday third baseman with 25-30 homer power.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

I don’t typically put pure relief prospects on my top 100; the exceptions have been, well, exceptional, most recently Josh Hader, who has produced over 11 WAR in six-plus seasons in the majors. Misiorowski is working as a starter now and should continue to do so, but the delivery screams reliever, as he can’t repeat it and won’t get close to average command the way it all works now. He also boasts one of the best two-pitch combinations in baseball, with his fastball and slider at least 7s and you could make an argument either or both is an 8. He can touch 100 mph and regularly works in the upper 90s with high spin and excellent carry on the pitch. The slider has tilt, angle, depth, and tight rotation, running 84-90 when I saw him in a start in May. He doesn’t have a viable pitch for lefties yet, and the delivery, with visible effort, a high elbow, and a head-whack at release, is not conducive to strike-throwing or durability; he walked more than 13 percent of batters on the whole in 2023, including 15 percent in his final stop in Double A. The Brewers are handling him carefully, as he didn’t face more than 20 batters or throw more than 97 pitches in any outing last year. That is the right approach even if you think his future is in the bullpen, as he still needs to work on throwing strikes, figuring out the right weapon for lefties and maybe not throwing 100 percent on every pitch because his stuff moves so well. Multi-inning relief work is coming back into fashion, finally, and Misiorowski certainly has the potential to be a very good reliever in that role. I could see him posting a couple of 3-WAR seasons that way if his control improves.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Schanuel was the 11th pick in the 2023 draft and became the first player from that draft to reach the majors when the Angels called him up on Aug. 18. He acquitted himself quite well in his major-league debut with a .275/.402/.330 line and more walks than strikeouts. Schanuel’s plate discipline is real, as he rarely chases out of the zone and hammers fastballs, so the question is whether he can get to more power from such a big frame. His hands start high above his head, but that doesn’t inhibit his timing, and he seems to get his hips and legs involved in his swing enough, yet so far it hasn’t resulted in either big in-game power or high exit velocities. He’s probably limited to first base as well, so he could have a Dave Magadan-like career even without more power output (Magadan produced 21.1 WAR and played 16 seasons), but if I’m the Angels I’m all about trying to get a 6-4, 220+ pound hitter to hit like one.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

The worst thing you can say about Meyer is that he was a high school pitcher taken in the first round, and if you’ve read anything I’ve written in the last 10 years you probably know I’m going to say that is about as high-risk a category as you’ll find in the draft. He’s still just 19 and has to stay healthy the next few years even though he’s already throwing quite hard, but the pure stuff here is pretty impressive, with four pitches that you might grade out as plus depending on when you see him. He hit 101 mph in high school and worked up to 96 in his brief time in pro ball, showing a very high-spin breaking ball that’s his best pitch now along with a tight slider and a changeup that showed very well in the minors after he barely used it in the spring. He comes from a little below three-quarters and his fastball can ride flat up in the zone, so he’ll have to work more with his offspeed stuff and/or tighten up his command significantly. He’s still young and looks like he’s barely begun to mature physically, while on the mound he’s been able to out-stuff hitters and has to work on the other aspects of pitching, from command to sequencing to ancillary things like fielding his position. I had a scout call it a “top of the rotation look,” which sums him up well: This is what a future top-of-the-rotation starter might look like at age 19, although guys who look like Meyer does at age 19 do not always end up top-of-the-rotation starters.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Stewart was one of only two teenagers to walk more than he struck out in full-season ball last year — the other, Pittsburgh’s Jesus Castillo, slugged .251 on the season. Stewart was the Reds’ second pick, 32nd in the 2022 draft, a polished high school first baseman who needed to get stronger for more in-game power. The Reds moved him to third base, where the results have been passable, enough to think he can be a 45 defender there, although his value is still going to reside in his bat. He’s got real plate discipline, picking up balls/strikes as well as recognizing pitch types, and he’s hitting the ball harder already, topping 106 mph in the Florida State League with five of his 12 homers on the season going to the opposite field. He’s very selective, even when ahead in the count, hunting specifically for stuff middle-up he can drive, and he can get away with that because he so rarely whiffs with two strikes. If Stewart keeps getting stronger, and perhaps tries to pull a few more pitches, he’ll be an easy 20-homer guy with high OBPs, which makes him a solid regular at first and a borderline star if he can just stay at third base.

2023 Ranking: 86

Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball, so he is likely to miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season, which is a shame on two levels — he had a shot at regular playing time in Queens, and he needs at-bats to keep developing. Even though he reached the majors last year, he remains an unfinished product on both sides of the ball. The ball comes off Mauricio’s bat much harder than you’d expect from his frame, but he has very strong wrists and generates a ton of bat speed, hitting a ball 117 mph in the majors and averaging just over 90 mph on his batted balls at the level. If he had any sort of plate discipline, he’d be a top-10 prospect, but he chases stuff out of the zone, especially offspeed, way too often, and can’t make up for it even with a decent rate of contact on those pitches. Major-league pitchers who can throw stuff just off the plate or just above/below the zone will have a field day with him until he tightens up his command of the zone — and that will only happen with more time in the batter’s box. He’s a natural shortstop but too erratic to play there in the majors. He looked promising at second base in the majors, and he could probably handle third if he got more time there, with only 22 professional games, a third between the minors and winter ball, in his career. He always had some volatility because of the lack of polish in his game, and now he’s losing up to a year of playing time, but I still hold out hope he can be an above-average regular at his peak — maybe just later than we’d otherwise thought.

2023 Ranking: 39

It was not the MLB debut Stone or the Dodgers were hoping for, as the team’s fifth-round pick from 2020 was hit hard in 31 innings, with major-league hitters all over his fastball and his supposed out pitch, his changeup, which was extremely effective all the way up through Triple A. The changeup wasn’t quite as devastating as it had been in the minors, but it appears he was tipping the pitch as well, allowing a 45 percent hard-hit rate with the pitch in the big-league stint. That in turn allowed hitters to look fastball, and his four-seamer, which was 93-95 mph but has never had a ton of movement, was close to useless. He’s a lot better than that, by his stuff and by his minor-league results, where his changeup would generate whiff rates near 50 percent or better at every level. He’s got at least an average fastball and slider with a changeup that looked like it’d be a 70 before major-league hitters deemed it somewhat unworthy of that grade. His debut was concerning, but I’m not giving up on his promise after such a small sample.

2023 Ranking: Just missed

Gonzalez went to the Twins in the January trade that sent Jorge Polanco to Seattle, the one significant prospect heading to Minnesota in that swap. Gonzalez offers some real upside with the bat if he can stop swinging at everything within a half-mile of the strike zone. He’s up there to do damage and has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can hit pitches anywhere in the zone and, to some extent, just outside of it, so he swings early and often. He mashed in Low A, hitting .348/.403/.530 with just a 13.7 percent strikeout rate. When he reached High A, however, pitchers exploited his tendency to chase outside the zone, and he slipped to .215/.290/.387 — still showing power and hard contact, but also swinging at more than a third of non-strikes he saw. His contact quality improved last year over 2022, and he did hit for more power (ISO .147 to .178), although that has to continue to improve so he can get to that 25+ homer range, as he’s a below-average runner and will be limited to a corner outfield spot. There’s above-average upside here given the pure hit ability and potential for 60 or better power; with his defensive limitations and the odds that he’ll never walk 50 times in a season, though, he has to get there to be more than an extra outfielder.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Meadows reached the majors last year and gave a pretty good indication of the kind of player he’ll be in a larger sample — plus defense in center, plus speed, some power, some walks, enough swing and miss to keep him from being a star. A second-round pick in 2018, Meadows — the younger brother of former Tigers outfielder Austin Meadows — had big tools as a high schooler but had a huge hitch in his swing that made it hard for him to get to the ball on time, and he had OBPs below .300 for his first three seasons in pro ball. The Tigers helped him get rid of the big hitch before 2022 and he’s been a different hitter since then, with a .340 OBP across the past two seasons thanks to much better results on balls in play along with a small bump in his walk rates. He’s every bit of 6-5 and has a big strike zone, so there’s going to be some swing and miss, but he doesn’t chase excessively and he makes enough contact in-zone to get to a .240ish average and 15-20 homers a year. His glove and arm were worth 5 runs above average by Statcast last year in less than a quarter of a season, and I believe he’s going to be worth +10 or more if he gets to play 150 games out there this year. Big velocity might end up his main weakness and the obstacle to him becoming a 4+ win player; the defense gives him a great foundation and even if he punches out 30 percent of the time, something he’s never done in the minors, he’d still be a soft regular with the other tools he brings to the table.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

The Yankees signed Arias in January 2022 for a $4 million bonus, their largest bonus since they signed Jasson Domínguez in 2019 for $5.1 million, which was the largest bonus the team has ever given to an international amateur free agent. Arias may not be from Mars, but he turned in a very strong stateside debut last year, hitting .267/.423/.505 in the Florida Complex League last year as an 18-year-old with a 22 percent strikeout rate, well below the league average of 27 percent. It’s outstanding bat speed for an 18-year-old, especially from the left side, where his hands go from 0 to 60 in a flash, although I worry that he’s got a bit of a grooved, uphill swing that’s going to prevent him from squaring up the ball as often as he should. He’s an easy plus runner who should stay at shortstop, with a plus arm that plays up even above that because he’s got such a quick transfer and release; there’s some question of whether his body will stay lithe enough for the position, although the consensus leans toward not just remaining at short but becoming an above-average one. He’s farther from the majors than some of the Yanks’ more famous prospects, but other than Domínguez he may offer the most upside between offense and defense of anyone in the system.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

I guess it wouldn’t be a top-100 without at least two Dodgers catching prospects on it. Liranzo is their latest phenom behind the plate, a switch-hitter who hit .273/.400/.562 in Low A last year with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate, better from the left side, with power either way. He’s got a big frame with plus bat speed already. He’s likely to end up with 30+ homer power as he gets ever stronger. He will have to work to stay agile enough behind the plate, where right now he’s a work in progress, showing enough aptitude even though he’s not very fluid in his actions when receiving or blocking. If he were a sure-thing catcher, he might be a top-50 prospect because the power is real and he’s got an idea at the plate. He’ll move to High-A Great Lakes this year, and the Midwest League is a lesser hitters’ environment than the Cal League, so we’ll get a better read on how advanced his approach is along with seeing how the catching progresses. The high-walks, high-power upside in a switch-hitting catcher could make him shoot up this list in a year.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Gilbert was Houston’s first-round pick in 2022 out of the University of Tennessee, then headed to the Mets in the Justin Verlander trade this past July along with power-hitting prospect Ryan Clifford. Gilbert’s the more advanced player of the two and took off after the trade, hitting .325/.423/.561 for Double-A Binghamton after scuffling for the Astros’ Double-A affiliate, Corpus Christi, the previous two months. Those struggles are probably just noise but did end up changing how his season looked overall — especially against lefties, where he had a decent platoon split in the first half but ended the year with a slightly higher OPS against southpaws. Gilbert’s a 55 or 60 defender in center, depending on who you ask, with an easy plus arm — he was a two-way player in high school — that would allow him to move to right, where he should be a 65 or 70 defender if he has to do it. He’s a hitter with a little pop, the opposite of the trend towards power-over-hit guys, and that’s even with his occasional tendency to try to pull pitches he should just go with rather than sacrificing some hit for power. He’s been a fan favorite already in the minors for his all-out style of play, which I expect to carry over to the majors when they see his 5-9 frame flying all over the field. At worst, he’s a fourth/platoon outfielder who can play all three spots, but after that strong finish I feel much better about him hitting lefties enough to play every day and hit .280-.300 with a walk rate over 10 percent and 15ish homers a year, whether that’s as an above-average defender in center or an easy plus one in right.

(Photo illustration by Sean Reilly / The Athletic: From left to right Paul Skenes / Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images; Jackson Holliday / Justin Berl / Getty Images; Jackson Chourio / David Durochik / Diamond Images via Getty Images; Ethan Salas / Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

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Stark: 5 things we learned from the Baseball Hall of Fame election https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-election-takeaways/ https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-election-takeaways/#respond Wed, 24 Jan 2024 23:11:13 +0000 https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-election-takeaways/

COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — There were Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer. This was their first Hall of Fame election. They won’t need a second. On Tuesday, they became baseball’s newest first-ballot Hall of Famers. And that stamps them as baseball royalty, connected forever to this special stamp of greatness. Beltré reeled in 95.1 percent of the […]

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COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — There were Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer. This was their first Hall of Fame election. They won’t need a second. On Tuesday, they became baseball’s newest first-ballot Hall of Famers. And that stamps them as baseball royalty, connected forever to this special stamp of greatness.

Beltré reeled in 95.1 percent of the vote. That’s the same percentage as a guy named Babe Ruth. If he ever needs to impress people at a party over the next 40 years, you think Beltré can get some mileage out of that little tidbit?

Mauer’s margin wasn’t quite that hefty, at 76.1 percent. That would be a landslide in the New Hampshire primary. In this election, he cleared the 75 percent bar by just four votes.

Nevertheless, he and Beltré made this the first election in which two first-year position players got elected in the same year since 2018 (Chipper Jones and Jim Thome) — and only the second time since 2007 (Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr.).

On the other hand, there were Todd Helton and Billy Wagner. All the drama of this election night seemed to swirl around them. They were sure — and we were sure — it was going to be close. We were right about one of them anyway.

For those of us following along on Ryan Thibodaux’s indispensable Hall of Fame vote tracker, Helton went into election day looking as though he could be a coin flip. Instead, he wound up with a higher percentage than Mauer, garnering 79.7 percent. The Rockies have been playing baseball for 31 years. Before Tuesday, there had never been any such thing as a Hall of Famer who had spent his entire career as a Colorado Rockie. Not anymore.

Helton and Mauer are only the fifth duo of one-team players in the past half-century to get elected to the Hall by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in the same election. Maybe you’ve heard of the others: Mariano Rivera (New York Yankees) and Edgar Martinez (Seattle Mariners) in 2019, Gwynn (San Diego Padres) and Ripken (Baltimore Orioles) in 2007, George Brett (Kansas City Royals) and Robin Yount (Milwaukee Brewers) in 1999, Johnny Bench (Cincinnati Reds) and Carl Yastrzemski (Boston Red Sox) in 1989, and Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford (Yankees) in 1974. Cool group.

And then there was Wagner. After nine elections into his time on the ballot, he’s still trying to stagger up this mountain. In his first year on the ballot, in 2016, he barely cleared 10 percent, and 17 players on that ballot got more votes than him. This time around, he was up to 73.8 percent — and only Beltré, Mauer and Helton tallied more votes. But 73.8 percent wasn’t enough to get him to the summit. So he will be back next year.

He might want to know that, just in the past eight elections, we’ve had three players elected in their 10th and final ride on this Hall of Fame roller coaster: Tim Raines in 2017, Martinez in 2019 and Larry Walker in 2020. Even in the heartbreak of missing nine in a row, there is always hope.

But with Wagner missing election by five votes and Mauer making it by four, this became only the third election in which two players were this close to getting elected and only one of them made it. The others: 1947 (Lefty Grove, in by two, and Pie Traynor, out by two) and 2017 (Pudge Rodríguez, in by four, Trevor Hoffman, out by five).

Finally, there was Gary Sheffield. It was his 10th and final season on this ballot. The good news is, he trampolined from 55.0 percent last year to 63.9 percent this year — the second-largest bump of anyone in this field (behind only Carlos Beltrán). The bad news is, he’s out of time with this group of voters, the baseball writers.

It might brighten his mood to know that for the first 85 years of Hall of Fame voting, every player who reached that high a percentage eventually was elected by some version of the Veterans Committee. It might not brighten his mood to know that Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling broke that streak in 2022. Will a future committee view Sheffield similarly to those guys or as a feared masher who pounded 509 home runs? Hey, ya got me.

But either way, every Hall of Fame election offers us lessons in what just happened and what it all means. We now know who will be on that stage July 21 on Induction Day in Cooperstown. So here come Five Things We Learned from the 2024 Hall of Fame election.

Baseball Hall of Fame 2024 voting

Player Votes Percent

Adrián Beltré

366

95.1

Todd Helton

307

79.7

Joe Mauer

293

76.1

Billy Wagner

284

73.8

Gary Sheffield

246

63.9

Andruw Jones

237

61.6

Carlos Beltran

220

57.1

Alex Rodriguez

134

34.8

Manny Ramirez

125

32.5

Chase Utley

111

28.8

Omar Vizquel

68

17.7

Bobby Abreu

57

14.8

Jimmy Rollins

57

14.8

Andy Pettitte

52

13.5

Mark Buehrle

32

8.3

Francisco Rodriguez

30

7.8

Torii Hunter

28

7.3

David Wright

24

6.2

1. Adrián Beltré hits the Brett/Schmidt/Chipper stratosphere


Adrián Beltré is headed to Cooperstown after receiving more than 95 percent of the vote. (Bob Levey / Getty Images)

Adrián Beltré may not be the answer to the question: Who’s the greatest third baseman in history? But he sure came close to being the answer to the question: Who’s the greatest third baseman in history at collecting Hall of Fame votes?

George Brett has held that record for 25 years. But Beltré gave him a run, winding up with the fourth-best percentage by any third baseman in the history of this election.

VOTE PERCENTAGE PLAYER, YEAR

98.2

George Brett, 1999

97.2

Chipper Jones, 2018

96.5

Mike Schmidt, 1995

95.1

Adrián Beltré, 2024

92.0

Brooks Robinson, 1983

91.9

Wade Boggs, 2005

Beltré appeared on all but two of the ballots that were revealed by voters before election night. He faded among the private voters. But he still wound up only 19 votes away from joining Mariano Rivera in the 100 Percent Club. Back in his day, Brett missed by nine (in a year with about 100 more voters). Chipper missed by 12. Schmidt missed by 16.

For most of Beltré’s career, you would never have expected him to be hanging in that company. But here in 2024, we live in a very different age, with a very different electorate.

First off, would it shock you to hear we’ve never witnessed more groupthink? Yeah, imagine that. But never have more voters stared at the same wins above replacement charts. And (possibly not in this order) never have more voters been wary of social media vote-shaming. So it’s no mystery how it happens.

But beyond that, there’s another important reason: Modern voters are just younger and more connected to the modern game.

You can thank the folks at the Hall for that change. After the ranks of eligible voters began approaching 600 — including dozens who had long since stopped covering baseball — the Hall rewrote the rules for 2016 and lopped more than 100 inactive writers, including many old-school voters (and thinkers), off the list.

So now, if you haven’t covered baseball in the last 10 years, you no longer get a vote. Does anyone miss that crowd that wouldn’t vote for anybody on the first ballot, whether it was Willie Mays or Willie Bloomquist? Thought so!

That’s a huge reason for Beltré’s vote total. But the other reason is obvious: Name any logical reason not to vote for him, unless you’re casting some kind of protest vote.

Then again, what’s a reasonable protest that leaves this guy off your ballot? Did you once vow that you’d never vote for a player unless he let his teammates touch his head? Hey, whatever!

C’mon, man. How many third basemen are walking around our planet with 3,100 hits and five Gold Glove Awards? Precisely one: Adrian Beltré. I’m glad most of us were smart enough to honor that.

2. We underestimated the pull of Mauer power


Joe Mauer, first-ballot Hall of Famer. Not many Hall watchers would have predicted that before this election cycle. (Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

Raise your hand if you predicted two months ago that Joe Mauer was going to collect the second-highest first-ballot vote percentage of any catcher ever. Right. Thought so. I’m pretty sure not even the Mauer family would have made that bet.

But when the ballot dust settled, that’s where we were. Here’s the stunning modern-day leaderboard (from the past 55 elections).

PCT  CATCHER YEAR YEARS TO ELECTION

96.4

Johnny Bench

1989 

1

76.1

Joe Mauer 

2024

1

76.0

Pudge Rodriguez

2017

1

67.2

Yogi Berra  

1971

2

66.4

Carlton Fisk

1999

2

57.8

Mike Piazza

2013

4

If you look closely at that list, you’ll detect a few unfathomable subplots lurking inside those vote totals. Such as …

• Could it possibly be true that the great Yogi Berra wasn’t a first-ballot Hall of Famer? Nope, he’s not! Because 1971.

• Is it also possible that only two catchers in history — Bench and Pudge — had been elected on the first ballot before Mauer came along? Yep! If you don’t count DH, a thing that didn’t exist for nearly a century of Major League Baseball, catcher had the fewest of any position … until now.

FEWEST FIRST-BALLOT HALL OF FAMERS

DH — 2
Catcher — 3
First base — 3
Second base — 3
Center field — 5

So there was plenty of voting history to suggest that Mauer wasn’t a lock to cruise into the Hall on the first ballot. He also had a career that gave us reason to wonder how much the back end of that career — five seasons as a non-thumper kind of first baseman who averaged just eight homers a year — would hurt him in Year 1.

Turns out, though, those first-base years were a factor with only one small sliver of this voting population: first-time voters. The amazing Jason Sardell, who breaks down this voting in as precise detail as anyone I know, was the first to point this out to me.

Mauer among first-time voters — 77 percent
Mauer among returning voters — 85 percent

(Source: Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker)

First-time voters began covering baseball more recently than the rest. So they would also be the voters most likely to have seen only Mauer’s first-base years with their own eyes — as opposed to his 10 seasons as one of the best-hitting catchers of all time. But fortunately for him, those first-time voters represented only about 6.5 percent of all voters who made their ballots public before election day (13 of 201), according to Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker.

So whaddaya know. Joe Mauer is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. And that’s just one more reminder that “one” has always been his magic number.

No. 1 pick in the draft … one team played for (the Minnesota Twins) in his whole career … one metropolis played in, in his whole baseball-playing life (the Twin Cities) … and now the greatest honor of them all:

One election … one trip to Cooperstown coming right up!

3. Helton’s road to the finish line got a bit rocky


Todd Helton was elected in his sixth year on the ballot, but his vote patterns this time defied expectations. (Brian Bahr / Allsport)

Hall of Fame voting will always have an element of mystery to it. That’s a beautiful thing for election-night drama fans. It’s not quite that beautiful a thing for the actual humans who have to sweat out that drama.

Todd Helton could tell you all about it. He rolled into this election as the top returning vote-collector, at 72.2 percent last year. All he needed to add was about a dozen votes, and he was in. That’s all!

The history of modern Hall of Fame voting tells us that shouldn’t have been a problem. He shouldn’t have had to sweat out election night thinking he might be lucky to sneak in by just a vote or two.

Over the past 50 elections, 12 previous players had gone into a Hall of Fame election after attracting approximately 72 percent of the vote (or more) the year before. One was Jim Bunning, a polarizing candidate who actually lost votes the next year. How’d that work out for the other 11? Every one of them got elected. That’s how.

But that’s not all. For almost all of them, it wasn’t even close. On average, their vote totals jumped by 10.5 percentage points in those elections. Only three of them failed to get a bounce of at least 8 percentage points:

 YEAR PLAYER JUMP

1991

Gaylord Perry

5.1%

2003

Gary Carter

5.3%

2018

Trevor Hoffman

5.9%

So when you’re this close, history tells us there’s always an election-time surge coming. But as Helton learned Tuesday night, in Hall of Fame voting, past is not always prologue.

Helton’s “jump” — wound up at 7.5 percentage points. Only Gaylord Perry (plus-22) added fewer votes than Helton in the year he got elected. Helton was only plus-26. Very odd.

Helton’s “margin” — that 4.7 percentage points he made it by was the third-smallest ever among this group. In fact, before Helton, the only members of that club above who didn’t wind up at 80 percent or higher were Perry (77.2 percent) and Carter (78.0). In terms of total votes, Perry was the closest call, clearing the 75 percent bar by just nine votes.

Scott Rolen made it by only five votes last year, but still picked up 48 votes compared with the year before. Helton, meanwhile, got that 26-vote bump. And that felt small considering that only a year ago, he added a whopping 76 votes — which was more than the total number of votes he was getting as recently as 2019 (70). So it’s safe to say that coming into this year, he didn’t have The Look of a guy who was about to stall at the finish line.

But crazy things can happen in these elections. So what happened in his case? Let’s break it down this way:

The ballot got crowded again — Where did Helton’s big gain come from over the previous four elections? That part is no mystery. When he debuted in 2019, he had to compete with eight players who eventually got elected. But once they were out of the way, it cleared space for a couple of hundred voters who just didn’t have room to check Helton’s name in those early years.

So in only four years, he zoomed from 70 votes to 281, and from 16.5 percent to 72.2 percent. But then …

After a three-year run that produced only one first-ballot Hall of Famer (David Ortiz), this year’s ballot gave us Beltré and Mauer, plus Chase Utley and David Wright. So you can guess what happens in years like this: The more crowded the ballot, the less likely it is that “small Hall” voters add a player like Helton after not voting for him in the past – and on the Hall tracker, we’ve even seen some of those voters drop Helton after voting for him last year.

So that’s part of this. But also …

Coors Field is still a thing — How naïve were we to think that once Larry Walker got elected in 2020, it meant that Cooperstown’s Curse of Coors was finally dead? Wrong! Now we know, thanks to the Helton election returns, that The Curse lives on — at least with some voters.

Is it possible that no longtime Rockie will ever make it to 80 percent? Maybe it is. We should remember, first off, that it took Walker until his final year on the ballot to get elected, and even then he only made it by six votes. So 93 of the 397 voters that year were still “no’s” on him.

But here’s another surprise, uncovered by fantastic research from Anthony Calamis, who works with Thibodaux on the Hall tracker. It turns out Helton has had a tough time drawing votes from writers who did vote for Walker.

Of the first 216 ballots made public this year, 26 were longtime voters who did not vote for Helton — and were also voters in 2020. Stunningly, 42 percent of them (11 of 26) voted for Walker in 2020 but not for Helton this year.

Helton made up some of that shortfall by collecting votes from six of 21 returning voters who were not Walker voters. But does it surprise you that there isn’t nearly total overlap of those Walker/Helton voters? It surprised me — and it’s a big reason Helton’s election night was filled with more drama than we once would have expected.

Once the ballot smoke cleared, though, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer — forever. And someday, no one will care that he had to sweat out every second of election day.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

‘Could you imagine?’ How a near-trade and leaning into joy shaped Todd Helton’s legacy

4. Billy Wagner is the new Trevor Hoffman


Next election will be Billy Wagner’s final year on the writers’ ballot. (Mike Fiala / AFP via Getty Images)

It’s a good thing, at times like this, that Billy Wagner spent a decade and a half as a big-league closer — because nobody knows better than him that the last out is always the hardest to get. So it’s only fitting that Wagner’s journey to the Hall of Fame would follow the same script.

He missed election last year by a mere 27 votes. But if he thought that meant the hard part was over, well, ho ho ho. ’Fraid not.

While Beltré, Mauer and Helton celebrated Tuesday night, Wagner was still five votes short. So he’s down to one last shot, in his 10th and final spin on this ballot, to clear that Cooperstown bar.

I’m sure he’s looking for reasons to believe right now. So I’ll helpfully give him one, just by dropping this name:

Trevor Hoffman.

What do they have in common, aside from their late-inning job description? Here goes:

LAST 3 ELECTIONS

Hoffman 

2016 — 67.3 percent (34 votes short)
2017 — 74.0 percent (5 votes short)
2018 — 79.9 percent (elected by 20 votes)

Wagner 

2023 — 68.1 percent (27 votes short)
2024 — 73.8 percent (5 votes short)
2025 — (Elected? Stay tuned!)

I should point out, in the interest of clarity, that those were Hoffman’s first three years on the ballot whereas they would be Wagner’s eighth, ninth and 10th years. But that distracts us from the moral of this story:

There are always going to be voters who are allergic to throwing a vote at any closer not named Mariano Rivera.

So even Hoffman, the first member of the 600 Saves Club, needed more than one election to find those last three dozen votes to get elected. And now Wagner is the one hunting for those last few votes, even though he owns the best career ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate of any left-handed pitcher in the modern era.

Are those votes going to be there next year? You’d think so. But there’s reason to worry because, in other ways, Hoffman and Wagner are not so alike at all. If you dig deep enough, you can find the telling voting trends that blew up Wagner’s plans for a Hall of Fame victory party this year.

It would seem logical — to me at least — that the segment of voters Wagner would have the least trouble with are those who had once voted for other closers not named Mariano. Do we agree on that?

But here’s a shocker: That hasn’t been the case. Adam Dore, who works with Thibodaux on the Hall of Fame tracker, found 55 voters heading into this election who had never voted for Wagner — but had once voted for Hoffman or Lee Smith. And how many of those 55 had flipped and added Wagner to their 2024 ballots at last look? Surprisingly, it was just seven.

As of Tuesday afternoon, more than half of those voters still hadn’t revealed their ballots for this year. So it’s possible that Wagner was added on some of those ballots in the final voting. Plus Wagner had made up some of that ground because, at last look, 20 voters were checking his name who didn’t vote for Hoffman in 2018.

Nevertheless, this helps us understand why even a closer as historically significant as Billy Wagner could have so much trouble winning that scavenger hunt for 30 more votes. If even the Trevor Hoffman/Lee Smith voters aren’t lining up to vote for him, this was always going to be harder than it looked.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

How a broken arm — and an unbroken spirit — took Billy Wagner to the doorstep of the Hall

5. Coming in 2026: Carlos Beltrán’s induction day?


Carlos Beltrán appears on track to be elected in two years. (Bob Levey / Getty Images)

I know we only arrived in 2024 like 20 minutes ago. But it’s never too early to start dreaming about Induction Weekend 2026.

OK, maybe for you it is. But not around here, because Hall of Fame elections aren’t only interesting at the top of the ballot. It’s down in the next tier that we start getting clues about what’s ahead. And you know what’s almost certainly ahead for Carlos Beltrán, based on his 2024 vote totals?

A Hall of Fame induction speech!

Beltrán debuted on the ballot last year with 46.5 percent, then jumped to 57.1 percent this year. So of all the top runners-up this year who weren’t Billy Wagner, he emerged from a loaded field better-positioned than anyone else to get elected once the ballot gets less crowded in a couple of years.

What about Andruw Jones, you ask? Yes, he ended up with more votes than Beltrán as he moved up to 61.6 percent. But we’ll circle back to him momentarily.

So why does Beltrán look like a Hall of Fame lock? Because that 10.6 percentage point jump is telling us something. Nobody on the ballot added more votes since last year than him. Isn’t that a sign that a large chunk of voters wanted to wait a year to see how their brethren handled a central figure in the 2017 Astros’ trash-can-lid chorus? Seems like it.

Or maybe those voters opted to withhold a vote for him in Year 1 but then treated him like a “normal” candidate in Year 2. Either way, if you’re not dinging Beltrán for being a nefarious Astro, then his “normal” Hall of Fame credentials are obvious.

One of the greatest center fielders of modern times … one of the greatest switch hitters of the past half-century … one of the greatest postseason difference-makers in the history of his sport. That guy is a Hall of Famer. So why can we safely project that there’s a Cooperstown speech in his future?

Over the past 50 elections, we’ve seen five other players debut on the ballot at 40 percent or higher — and then jump by at least 10 percentage points the next year. Guess what they all have in common?

PLAYER  YEARS JUMP LATER ELECTED?

Jeff Bagwell

2011-12

41.7% to 56.0%

Yes

Ryne Sandberg

2003-04

49.2% to 61.1%

Yes

Barry Larkin

2010-11

51.6% to 62.1%

Yes

Fergie Jenkins

1989-90

52.3% to 66.7%

Yes

Catfish Hunter 

1985-86

53.7% to 68.0%

Yes

Now maybe we’re reading this wrong. Maybe Beltrán will never be fully treated as a “normal” candidate. Maybe there will always be a cap on the number of votes that are out there for a player who makes some of these voters hear trash cans banging in their heads. And maybe that cap sits at somewhere under 75 percent.

But as the above chart shows, this was a big year-over-year jump for a player like him. So, until proven otherwise, let’s assume this one means what all those other jumps meant.

Is it a little too soon to start looking ahead to 2026 when Induction Weekend 2024 is still six months away? Of course it is. First we can look forward to 2025, with Ichiro, CC Sabathia, Félix Hernández, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Troy Tulowitzki and more debuting on next year’s ballot. But then comes 2026, which looms as The Year to Watch.

It’s a year with no obvious first-ballot attractions. So that would seem to leave an opening for Beltrán to fill the vacuum. But what about Jones, who would be in his Year 9 cycle then?

His future seems harder to project. Remember that as recently as 2019, he was getting just 32 votes — four fewer than Sammy Sosa. Then came four consecutive years of big gains that took him from under 8 percent to over 58 percent.

But in this election, that Jones Acela train stopped chugging. He inched forward from 58.1 percent last year to 61.6 percent this year. That’s the smallest jump by anyone in the upper tier of this ballot. So it’s fair to wonder whether, after flipping nearly 200 “no” votes to yes in four years, he can now flip those last 62 voters he needs to make it to the plaque gallery.

Sorry, I’m not ready to make that prediction yet. But I’m the same guy who once predicted Bonds and Clemens were going to get elected someday. So how much certainty is there about any of this? About as much as trying to predict who’s going to win the 2026 World Series.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

A look ahead at the 2025 MLB Hall of Fame ballot: Ichiro, Pedroia, Sabathia and more


Hall of Fame ballot columns from The Athletic

• Stark: My 2024 Hall of Fame ballot — how I voted and why

• Rosenthal: Why Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are both on my Hall ballot

• Kepner: Explaining my Hall ballot — a celebration of greatness

• Nine more The Athletic staffers reveal their Hall ballots


go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Weaver: Hall of Famer Adrián Beltré’s journey to joyful abandon felt like magic

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Jim Leyland, Hall of Fame manager: 4 things we learned from the Contemporary Era election

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

A distinguished dozen: Saluting the 12 newcomers to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

(Top image: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Joe Mauer: Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images; Adrián Beltré: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images; Todd Helton: Doug Pensinger / Getty Images)

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Gary Sheffield, one of baseball’s great offensive forces, is still defending his reputation https://usmail24.com/gary-sheffield-one-of-baseballs-great-offensive-forces-is-still-defending-himself/ https://usmail24.com/gary-sheffield-one-of-baseballs-great-offensive-forces-is-still-defending-himself/#respond Fri, 19 Jan 2024 21:09:45 +0000 https://usmail24.com/gary-sheffield-one-of-baseballs-great-offensive-forces-is-still-defending-himself/

However you perceive Gary Sheffield — icon or problem child, steroid user or public-opinion victim — one image almost certainly springs to mind. It’s that waggling bat, the pulsating motion that for 22 seasons radiated so much swagger. Through eight teams, nine All-Star nods, steroid allegations and a list of other microcontroversies too long to […]

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However you perceive Gary Sheffield — icon or problem child, steroid user or public-opinion victim — one image almost certainly springs to mind. It’s that waggling bat, the pulsating motion that for 22 seasons radiated so much swagger.

Through eight teams, nine All-Star nods, steroid allegations and a list of other microcontroversies too long to count, Sheffield’s signature stance served as an active reminder of just who his opponents — and everyone else — were dealing with.

Talk with Sheffield now, in the days before Hall of Fame voting is revealed in his final year on the ballot, and there are moments when one can practically feel that bat waving through the phone.

“Trying to change your reputation, then you’re splitting hairs,” Sheffield says, responding to a question about why controversy seems to follow him. “So why bother? My thing became, why bother? I am who I say am, and I’m gonna say who I am.”

On the surface, he remains unapologetically himself in a way only Gary Sheffield can. Dig a little deeper, and dichotomies emerge. Fifteen years after his playing career ended, Sheffield’s takes on the Hall, and his exclusion from it thus far, whirl between defiant disregard and a yearning for acceptance.

“You don’t want me in the Hall of Fame, I’m not offended,” Sheffield says in one breath.

In another: “Of course it (bothers me),” he says. “No question about it. I put in the work. I’m a Hall of Famer. I was a Hall of Famer since the day I was born. OK?”

This is the crux Sheffield faces. He may say he does not care. But how could he not? The Hall of Fame is his life’s work boiled down to one yes-or-no verdict. If Sheffield seems bound by conflicting emotions on that subject, well, that’s familiar territory for a man who has always been defined by his contradictions.


This is Gary Sheffield’s 10th and final year on the Hall of Fame ballot. (Mark Cunningham / MLB Photos via Getty Images)

“Gary is actually a very shy, sensitive person,” Doc Gooden said of his nephew way back in 1996. “He might come across as a tough guy who doesn’t let anything bother him. But I know he cares what people think about him.”

Oh yeah, Sheffield cares what people think. He still catalogs every slight, real or perceived. Last year he received 55 percent of the vote from baseball writers. His total has inched upward but is still far from the 75 percent threshold needed for induction.

By the numbers, Sheffield appears to have a worthy Hall of Fame resume. There’s the 509 home runs, the 60.5 WAR, the JAWS score (a metric that measures Hall of Fame worthiness) that ranks above 13 right fielders already in Cooperstown as players. The detractions, though, have always loomed larger for the electorate — mostly, the ties to performance-enhancing drugs.

Zoom out, though, and Sheffield’s case is confounding. All these years later, one of a generation’s greatest offensive forces remains on the defensive.


You probably know the voice (loud), the personality (bold) and the play style (intimidating). But understanding Sheffield beyond the bat wag requires probing into a few of the stories not everyone knows. He chuckles through his nostrils as he tells one of these: When Sheffield was a child, he once asked his mother why he did not have siblings.

“She said I was difficult enough,” Sheffield says, “so she didn’t need no more.”

In the Belmont Heights neighborhood of Tampa, Gooden — the pitcher who would go on to stardom and then lose it all in the grip of drugs — famously served as a de facto older brother. He and Sheffield even shared a room for a while. But the truth is Sheffield’s earliest years did not involve the company of other children. Later, growing up on the edge of a tough area, his parents kept the rules tight. No staying the night at friend’s houses. No being out after dark.

“I was lonely at times,” Sheffield says.

Perhaps that is why now, 15 years into retirement, Sheffield still spends so much time alone. He cherishes his wife and children. He’s even a grandfather. But aside from family, his preferred state is solitude. Picture Sheffield, the man best known for his outspoken nature and authoritative play, burrowed in a man cave detached from his Tampa home. He watches football and basketball. Smokes his cigars.

“Being an only child,” he said, “you treasure being by yourself.”

For over two decades, he was a menace in the batter’s box. But in many ways, Sheffield is still a loner searching for a place.

And with his Hall of Fame candidacy in the hands of baseball writers for a final time, Sheffield has been making the media rounds lately. The interviews are as interesting as ever. They also lead Sheffield to a familiar paradox.

“I don’t go around just talking,” Sheffield says. “That’s the craziest thing I ever hear. ‘There go Gary again.’ Well, there go a writer calling and asking me a question. You see what I’m saying?”

Listen to him speak, and the dualities pop up everywhere. Much of his rhetoric toes a line between profound and opaque.

“You can ask me anything,” Sheffield says. “If you saw me pissing around the corner and you told the police, I would say, ‘Yeah, I was pissing around the corner.’ That’s who I am.

“So when you say, ‘Oh, well, he’s pissing around the corner, I’m gonna put it in the media and blast it everywhere,’ you think you’re embarrassing me because you said I was pissing around the corner?’ You’re not embarrassing me.

“I’ll say, ‘Yeah, I was pissing around the corner.’ You can’t embarrass me. And that’s the deal.”

Over the years, there was drama with managers. And executives. And Barry Bonds. Sheffield will gladly rehash any of it: the unfounded tale of him purposely making errors in Milwaukee, the reason he waived a no-trade clause and went from the Marlins to the Dodgers, the media kerfluffles in New York regarding playing alongside Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter. “One thing about my memory,” he says, “I got photographic memory, when it comes to me.”


When in New York, Gary Sheffield was part of a series of star-studded lineups. (Al Bello / Getty Images)

It has all led to a label that too often gets attached to athletes who say exactly what is on their mind: misunderstood.

In 1991, Sheffield hired Marvet Britto as his publicist. Britto’s job was essentially to help promote the positive aspects of Sheffield’s brand. But as Britto explains it, that meant becoming “the most critical person in his life.”

“I felt that many of the writers tried to make Gary Sheffield fit into a template rather than accept who Gary Sheffield was born to be,” Britto said. “It takes a certain amount of emancipating your voice to truly deliver the authenticity of who you were born to be. Very few people have the courage to do that.”

Britto, then, says she never wanted to silence Sheffield. Her agency worked instead to amplify his voice into one of authority.

Today, Britto says, she and Sheffield remain like family. Big Sis, Sheffield called her in the acknowledgments of his book.

“When you don’t put in the work to try to understand someone, then you misunderstand them,” Britto said. “No one came from where Gary Sheffield came from who wrote about the sport. That was also part of the problem. So, therefore, the storytelling was always not reflective or written with the cultural fluency that was necessary to interpret who this player was, and why this player may have been communicating in a way in which (he was) communicating. That takes a certain level of cultural fluency, and it takes a certain level of work.”

Listen closely as Sheffield unpacks his career and the Hall of Fame conundrum, and there are breadcrumbs there, left by someone who is not shy about voicing his desire to finally be understood.

“I’m helping educate you on me,” he says. “So you understand me. If you got a question about something that you come up with later, you can say, ‘I can put two and two together,’ because I can explain him.”

He talks proudly about how he thrives under duress. “When everybody is praising me and saying, ‘Good job,’ and all that, that’s when I screw up,” he says. Attempting to put that aforementioned two and two together, perhaps this meant he conditioned himself for chaos. If being alone is his preferred state, swirling in turmoil might be a close, subconscious second. “Sheffield is not hard to approach,” the Tampa Bay Times wrote in 1998. “He’s just hard to figure out.”

Sheffield frames it differently.

“My uncle allowed the New York Mets to tell him what to say, what to think and how to go about it,” Sheffield said. “I refused to do that, because I think that’s what drove him to drugs. Because he wasn’t being his authentic self.

“When you hold things in, it eats at you. You have to look yourself in the mirror, and you have to live with yourself.”


Sheffield has talked a lot lately about the time he used “the cream.” He was training with Barry Bonds, a venture that lasted only a few weeks before their personalities clashed. Sheffield was coming off knee surgery. He had cysts, and surgeons went in through the back of the knee to remove them. He returned to the gym quickly, at Bonds’ urging. One day the stitches busted. Sheffield started bleeding. All over the gym, he says. Someone from the gym, he says, handed him some cream to help stop the bleeding.

“It was really an ointment,” he says. “It was like a thick-based ointment to stop the bleeding.”

In a recent interview with USA Today, Sheffield said he used the cream only once. But Sheffield has urged Hall of Fame voters to “do their homework,” so there is a bit more to discuss here. Sheffield purchased vitamins from BALCO, he says, but never anything he knew was steroids. After the falling out, Sheffield says his wife wrote BALCO a check for $146 to cover the vitamins. The book “Game of Shadows” — considered a seminal text on the inner workings of the steroid era — says the check was for $430. The lone chapter centered on Sheffield concludes with this line: “The cost to his reputation would be much greater.”

Next thing Sheffield knew, he was testifying before a grand jury. He was granted immunity, there not as a suspect but rather to discuss Bonds. In a 2004 Sports Illustrated article, Sheffield detailed using “the cream” on his leg every night, a way of healing the scars. The scar cream, he says now, was “something totally different” from what he was given in the gym. 

“It was like you could go to a store and find something like that,” he said then. “I put it on my legs and thought nothing of it. I kept it in my locker. The trainer saw my cream.”


Gary Sheffield’s connection with Barry Bonds landed him in the Mitchell Report, with repercussions to this day. (Eliot Schechter / Getty Images)

Sheffield, it should be noted, was among the first MLB players to speak out against steroids. It was 2000 when he went on HBO’s “Real Sports” and alleged “six or seven” members of every team were juicing. He still swears he never knowingly used any performance-enhancing substance. His willingness to explain his involvement alone differentiates him from many suspected users.

“Game of Shadows” also cites a January 2002 drug calendar from trainer Greg Anderson that reflected Sheffield’s use of human growth hormone and testosterone. Sheffield says it’s not true. “That’s all fabricated,” he says. He’s still angered about the fact he was included in the Mitchell Report, a 409-page investigation released in 2007. His mentions in the report link him to Anderson and cite passages from Sheffield’s book, “Inside Power,” in which he denied steroid use. The section of the report related to Sheffield otherwise did not include any explosive revelations. Sheffield still bristles over the fact no one interviewed him for that report. Page 169 of the Mitchell Report, however, states Sheffield initially declined an interview request, then was later unable to schedule an interview because of his attorney’s health issues. 

Take all that for what it’s worth — that is the extent of what we know about Sheffield and steroids. And even as we get further removed from the stain of the Steroid Era, even as other names linked to PEDs, such as David Ortiz, have been enshrined in Cooperstown, these allegations have helped keep Sheffield out of the Hall of Fame.

“Nothing has ever been proven,” Britto said. “How do you continue to just make assumptions about someone and let that become a part of their narrative? That’s why he had to defend himself.”

Sheffield’s case otherwise is compelling. He was a nine-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger. He won a batting title and, in an era where so many were juicing, finished in the top six of MVP voting in four different seasons.

His WAR and subsequent HOF metrics would be even higher if not for his greatest flaw as a player: poor outfield defense. Even now, Sheffield still laments his early-career moves from shortstop to third base, from third base to outfield. Sheffield’s career WAR of 60.5 is still higher than players such as Harmon Killebrew, Vladimir Guerrero, Willie Stargell and Ortiz.

Sheffield nonetheless received only 11.7 percent of the vote his first year on the ballot.

His potent personality has long been a lightning rod, but it is also part of the Sheffield allure. Britto said she recently attended a golf tournament with Sheffield, where children far too young to have ever watched him play would approach and mimic his waving bat.

“To me,” Britto said, “that is the connective tissue that baseball should want.”

Now he is finally gaining more support. As of Jan. 18, he has appeared on 74 percent of writer’s ballots so far made public. That score tends to drop once all ballots are revealed, however, and most ballot observers seem to think he faces long odds to clear the 75 percent threshold in his final year. 

Former manager Jim Leyland, who will be inducted in Cooperstown next summer, is among Sheffield’s supporters.

“This is a pretty simple one,” Leyland said of what makes Sheffield a Hall of Fame player. “I think there was quite a long period of time that Gary Sheffield was the most feared right-handed hitter in baseball.”


“It’s funny,” Sheffield says. “I’ve been retired 13, 14 years. I just started reflecting on my career.”

He is finally reminiscing, he says, because things are finally slowing down. Sheffield knows he’s talking about “rich people problems” here. But until two years ago, he had never had one residence in his adult life. Early in his career, he submerged himself in the star lifestyle — the cars and the clothes, the money and the women. He would travel around the country, smacking baseballs everywhere he went. Then he’d go skiing in Aspen. Then he’d go to his residence in the Bahamas. Then home to Tampa. Every season and offseason followed a regimented plan.

“It’s more sane,” he said of his life now. “It’s simpler.”

Once, back in 1996, his mother told Sports Illustrated women were his biggest weakness. He married Deleon Richards, a gospel singer, in 1999. He talks often about how that relationship changed his life. They’ve been together 26 years. He’s proud of it. 

“When you got a spouse, you make it work and you find the good qualities in that person,” Sheffield says. “And when it’s not so good, you can still love that person. I think it’s a beautiful thing. It helps you understand how to love other people even more.”

When they were setting up their permanent home, Sheffield did not want any of his baseball memorabilia on display. Deleon encouraged him to put it all in the man cave. He has a tug-and-pull relationship with baseball like that. “I don’t miss playing at all,” he says. “Zero.” In 2021, he talked about how he struggles to watch the modern game. But one of his sons, Gary Jr., works in sports media. Another, Jaden, plays baseball at Georgetown. Garrett Sheffield spent last year playing in an independent league. Noah, a class of 2024 prospect, is committed to Florida State. Christian, a class of 2026 player, is on a similar track.

“At points in my life I hated the fact my kids wanted to entertain playing major-league baseball because of what I went through,” Sheffield says. “I didn’t want them dealing with that.”

At last, though, he is really thinking back on the good and the bad of it all. He has studied those players who have gotten into the Hall of Fame. He will not name names, but he sees others who — though they were excellent players — don’t have quite his accomplishments. He knows what people say. Consumes it all.

“There’s guys that failed tests,” Sheffield said. “There’s guys that have been accused. There’s guys that have been a lot of things. All the things they said about me, they’re already in there.

“And then they’ll talk about numbers. 500 home-run markers, 3,000-hit markers. There’s guys in there without them. So that means my numbers are better than all of it. So what do I think of it? … If I say what I think of it, it becomes, ‘Oh, he said this.’ Well, why did I say this? Because my numbers are better.”

This has become personal, too, Sheffield says, because of the way his wife and children perceive the Hall of Fame conundrum. “They want this so bad for me,” Sheffield says. “That don’t mean I don’t want it. That means they want it from a different perspective.”

From his own perspective, he earned this, and that leaves him both speaking of his desire to be enshrined in Cooperstown, and at other times dismissing the impending ballot reveal. “At the end of the day,” he said, “I come to realize it’s a popularity contest, and who (the writers) want to be in gets in.”

Those around him have watched that push-and-pull playing out, seen the conflict in him.

“The duality of that answer is he’s human, and he has a heartbeat,” Britto said. “Him not being in the Hall of Fame … his numbers warrant it, his pedigree warrants it, everything about Gary Sheffield from a data and metric and visibility and skill perspective warrants it. However, him not being in it, to him, feels deliberate.”

If Sheffield is not inducted this time, he could lean into his reputation and proudly bask in his own exclusion. That would be a fitting ending.

It just would not be the whole truth.

“I only want what’s rightfully mine, and that’s it,” Sheffield said. “And that’s the Hall of Fame.”

(Top photo of Sheffield in 2022: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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