Senator Joe Manchin III, the conservative Democrat from West Virginia, announced Friday that he would not run for the White House in 2024, ending months of speculation that he could challenge President Biden as an independent candidate.

“I will not seek a third-party run,” he said in a speech in Morgantown, W.Va. “I will not be involved in a presidential run.”

Since the 76-year-old Manchin announced in November that he would not run for re-election, he had been the subject of months of public and private guesswork about whether he would pursue the presidency. In particular, he had flirted with becoming a candidate for No Labels, a centrist group seeking to recruit a third option against Mr. Biden and former President Donald J. Trump.

But on Friday he promised: “I will not be a deal breaker or a spoiler.”

Mr. Manchin's decision removes the most prominent candidate that No Labels' leaders had tried to attract. They had told donors and allies in recent months that they planned to appoint a Republican to take charge, ostensibly removing Mr. Manchin from contention, but so far they have not identified any candidates.

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican, left No Labels' board in January. After endorsing former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley for president, he announced his own campaign for Senate in Maryland last week.

Since Mr. Manchin said he would not run again, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the majority leader, has implored him to formally leave the Democratic Party and run as an independent, according to two people familiar with the matter. with their conversations.

West Virginia's deadline to file for Senate primaries was in January, but… independent candidates have until August 1 to stand as a candidate.

Without Mr. Manchin, Democrats have written off the opportunity to hold the seat in deep-red West Virginia. They face an uphill battle to retain control of the Senate, with several incumbents defending seats in states won by Mr Trump.

Mr. Manchin is known in the Senate for cutting bipartisan deals and frustrating some of his party's most ambitious policy goals.

Speaking at West Virginia University on Friday, Mr. Manchin denounced the state of Congress, which he described as the most dysfunctional body he had ever seen.

“This will be the least productive and most destructive Congress we have ever had in the history of the United States,” he said.

Carl Hulse reporting contributed.

During an eyebrow-raising visit to New Hampshire on Friday, Sen. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia checked the names of friends who have been elected officials in the Granite State and complimented the critical nature of his constituents.

He paid tribute to the state's primary tradition and denounced President Biden's decision to undermine New Hampshire's power in this year's Democratic contest.

And as he pressed his own ambitions, the conservative Democratic senator delivered a message that would-be candidates have often deployed as they flirt with this traditionally influential, fast-voting state: He refused to rule anything out.

“How would you feel if a bunch of Democrats in New Hampshire wrote 'Joe' – not Biden – but 'Joe Manchin'?” one attendee asked as Mr. Manchin kicked off a “listening tour” of Politics and Eggs, an event series at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics that has long hosted presidential candidates and potential contenders.

“I can't prevent whatever you want to do,” Mr. Manchin responded to applause from the audience in Manchester, N.H., before insisting he was “not campaigning here.”

The question of what Mr. Manchin wants to do has long infuriated and confused his Democratic colleagues in Washington, who have often seen him as a roadblock to their legislative agenda even as he has played a crucial role in ultimately passing key priorities.

Now Mr. Manchin — known for a penchant for the spotlight that stands out even among U.S. senators — is raising new questions about his next steps.

There is speculation about whether he will make a late, long-shot presidential bid this year, and he has attracted interest from No Labels, a centrist group seeking a “unity ticket” to fend off a potential third-party bid party to release. Democratic allies of Mr. Biden are trying to stave off such efforts.

“He really deserves the most serious attention from No Labels because he is part of our movement” if he is interested in a third-party bid, said former Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut, the group's founder and chairman, who said he had done so spoke with Mr. Manchin after the senator announced in November that he would not seek re-election. “He has walked the centrist, bipartisan, problem-solving walk.”

But the senator gave no convincing support to the group's plans when asked Friday about the electoral potential of such a bid.

“It's admirable what they're trying to do to provide an option.” OK, they're working very hard on that, and their best intentions are to bring people together,” he said, noting his longstanding involvement with the group. When he revisited the question of viability, he replied, “I don't know. I mean, you have to – the people decide that. I think by Super Tuesday you'll know what's going on.

Mr. Manchin and his daughter founded an organization called Americans Together, aimed at raising moderate voices. The New Hampshire swing was the first stop on what his team called a listening tour, but he emphasized that his group was “totally different” from No Labels.

During his appearances — at breakfast, in calls with reporters and at a restaurant where he was followed by climate-focused protesters — Mr. Manchin denounced the far right and the far left (though any idea that Mr. Biden falls anywhere near that category) is risky for his many left-wing opponents).

He suggested the country was interested in more options but seemed uncomfortable talking directly about a third-party bid itself.

“I'm looking for: how do you bring the country together, how do we get people involved? And if that's a decision I have to make, I'll live with whatever decision I make,” he said in an interview.

As he extended his happy hand in the restaurant in Derry, where he told a Republican fan he didn't know whether he would run, a reporter asked if he could name one thing that appealed to him about a third-party bid. something that would stop him in his tracks.

The normally well-spoken senator smiled, declared he was there to bring Americans together and walked away.

Joe Manchin III, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, has been one of the most consistent and fierce defenders of fossil fuels in the Senate — except for one crucial vote.

That contradiction was on full display last week when Manchin announced he would not seek re-election. His decision will have far-reaching consequences, making it more difficult for Democrats to maintain control of the Senate. Manchin could even improve next year’s presidential race by running as an independent candidate.

But whatever happens in those future races, Manchin has already played a major role in shaping U.S. climate policy, in both directions.

Manchin consistently blocked legislation that would have accelerated the transition from fossil fuels to wind, solar and other clean energy. As chairman of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, he was a trusted ally for the coal and natural gas industries critical to his home state of West Virginia, and to his own financial interests.

Since his earliest days as a senator, Manchin has owned a company that sells low-grade coal, and as a lawmaker he helped a power plant in West Virginia that is his company’s sole customer, as my colleagues Christopher Flavelle and Julie Tate reported.

In 2021, Manchin became the crucial tie-breaking vote in the evenly divided chamber. For months, he blocked the Biden administration’s landmark climate change law, which provided penalties for energy companies that did not reduce their coal use.

And then a surprise: At the eleventh hour, Manchin signed to pass the bill, renamed the Inflation Reduction Act, the strongest climate legislation in the country’s history.

“His vote on the IRA has unleashed historic climate spending that will reshape the American economy,” said Abigail Dillen, the president of Earthjustice, an environmental law practice. “But the compromises he demanded have cemented the role of fossil fuels.”

A friend of fossil fuels

During his 2010 Senate campaign, Manchin said has placed an advertisement in which he put a bullet through a copy of a bill that would have implemented a cap-and-trade system on fossil fuel emissions. Manchin was elected. The bill passed the House but never saw a vote in the Senate.

Manchin has blocked the appointments of several senior officials who would have prioritized climate action. He declined to support President Biden’s nomination of Sarah Bloom Raskin for a top job at the Federal Reserve, largely because she supported letting companies include the risks of climate change in their financial projections. Manchin has also blocked appointments to top positions at the Environmental Protection Agency.

He was the largest recipient of donations from oil and gas companies in the Senate. according to OpenSecrets. An Exxon lobbyist called Manchin a particularly valuable contact.

Manchin’s coal business earned him a net worth of between $4.5 million and $12.8 million in 2020, according to Senate disclosures. a penchant for driving Maseratis.

The deciding vote

When Biden took office, he immediately tried to pass the Build Back Better Act, which would have committed more than half a trillion dollars to advancing renewable energy. After months of dithering, Manchin declared he would not support the bill.

And then in another plot twist: Manchin and Senator Chuck Schumer announced a surprise deal that paved the way for passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which has boosted the nation’s clean energy economy with hundreds of billions of dollars in tax subsidies.

Manchin’s support didn’t come without a few catches. In exchange for his vote, the legislation requires the federal government to auction more public lands and waters for oil drilling and expands tax credits for carbon capture technology that keeps coal- and gas-fired power plants running.

He ensured that West Virginia would receive nearly $1 billion in funding to develop a new hydrogen hub, one that uses more polluting energy sources. He also secured a commitment from Biden to complete a controversial natural gas pipeline.

“To the extent that the U.S. has a comprehensive energy policy that entrenches fossil fuels, that is the price that Joe Manchin demanded,” Dillen said.

‘God will give us time’

When the IRA deal was made, an expert on West Virginia predicted of Manchin: “I think he’s going to say, ‘I used my strategic position to bring back benefits to West Virginia.’ And he will probably do quite well in the next election.”

Instead, not long after the Inflation Reduction Act was passed, Manchin began railing against the law he wrote. Because polls showed that his support for the IRA was costing him support among voters, he said declared he waged a “relentless battle against the Biden administration’s efforts to implement the IRA’s radical climate agenda.”

And instead of taking advantage of the billions of dollars in spending the law will bring to West Virginia, Manchin decided not to run.

The leading candidate to succeed Manchin is expected to be West Virginia’s popular governor, Jim Justice even more hostile to climate legislation.

The Justice Department is adverse to wind and solar energy and is a strong supporter of fossil fuels. He has also appealed to his Christian faith downplays the urgency of the climate crisis: “God will give us time so that the smart people of the world can solve the riddle. If there really is climate change, He will give us time.”

Climate advocates may conclude that the only thing worse than Joe Manchin is the one thing, as the tie-breaking vote in the Senate may not have him there at all.

Nuclear energy is getting smaller

The latest piece in our series on the energy transition takes a closer look at the growing interest in small nuclear power plants.

Across the country, nearly a dozen companies are developing reactors that are significantly smaller than conventional nuclear power plants. The hope is that they will be easier to build, permits can be issued more quickly and they will be significantly cheaper than previous nuclear power plants, my colleagues Brad Plumer and Ivan Penn report.

The technology could provide stable electricity to the grid to supplement more intermittent wind and solar energy. But the sector faces significant hurdles.

In addition to ongoing concerns about nuclear waste, the industry is struggling to find a profitable path forward. Last week, the first major effort to build small reactors in the United States was abruptly canceled due to soaring costs.

You can read the entire article here.

And in a related item, my colleague Kenneth Chang looks at the growing group of companies involved in fusion energy. Fusion power, which creates energy by blowing up a tiny bit of hydrogen with lasers to cause a small, controlled thermonuclear explosion, isn’t ready for prime time yet. But its supporters say if it can be made reliable and affordable, it could usher in an era of abundant clean energy.

---

Other climate news

Since Senator Joe Manchin III, the conservative Democrat from West Virginia, cast the crucial vote last year for the Inflation Reduction Act, which gave President Biden his biggest legislative victory to date, the bill has weighed heavily on him politically.

Mr Manchin’s polls in his solidly Republican and coal-rich state fell last year after he played a pivotal role in writing climate, health and tax legislation. He has since worked to rebrand the pro-environmental bill, telling voters it would not only fight climate change, but also ensure fossil fuel production in the United States.

The senator, up for re-election next year and has flirted with a presidential run of his own, has declared a sort of legislative war against the measure he helped push through Congress. He has expressed frustration and dismay at what he calls the “radical climate agenda,” which he says is driving the Biden administration’s rollout of the law. And he’s still annoyed that his colleagues failed to include one of his top priorities: an initiative to expedite energy project permitting.

Mr Manchin went to Fox News last month and threatened to try to vote to overturn the legislation – “I will vote to repeal my own law,” he said – making common cause with Republicans who support the reversal of different provisions in the law. in exchange for raising the debt limit.

And Mr. Manchin, who enjoys his role as a bipartisan dealmaker on Capitol Hill, also spoke one-on-one with Speaker Kevin McCarthy about a potential debt ceiling compromise, including allowing energy, one of many areas those have emerged as a possible piece of common ground in conversations between the White House and congressional officials.

“We absolutely must make reforms for the good of our country,” Manchin said.

His position reflects his political fragility and at least one of the crosscurrents at play in bipartisan debt talks.

For now, the senator appears to be on a warpath with the Biden administration over the signing of the domestic policy bill. Expected costs exploded as the administration began handing out the tax credits the electric vehicle bill allowed. Mr Manchin has complained that the appropriations are unnecessary and wasteful and accused the administration of being slow to approve leases for domestic energy production.

Mr Manchin, who has a personal financial interest in the coal industry, also vowed last week to do so block all Environmental Protection Agency nominees on a proposal to limit emissions from power plants.

“We’re not going to let them get away with it,” he said last week. “We’re going to shut everything down.”

The situation has created a political conundrum for Mr Manchin’s party. The Democrats desperately need him to run for re-election if they have any realistic hope of retaining the seat and maintaining their slim majority in the Senate. He has yet to commit to it, even though two Republicans — including the state’s governor Jim Justice — have stated they intend to push for it.

Instead, Mr. Manchin is openly flirting with running against Mr. Biden for president under the ticket of No Labels, a political organization backed by wealthy donors that bills itself as a centrist group. It has entered presidential elections in Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon and Utah in hopes of creating the opportunity for Mr. Manchin — or any other centrist — to run as an independent candidate under his banner.

“Make no mistake, I will win every race I enter,” declared Mr. Manchin shortly after Mr. Justice entered the Senate race.

Democrats view the possibility of a presidential run in Manchin as disastrous for the party, but all but assure former President Donald J. Trump will win the 2024 election. But recent polls have shown Mr Biden following Mr Trump, and some people close to Mr Manchin say they think he could stand a chance if Mr Biden seems doomed to failure.

The senator appeared on a recent phone call with more than 200 donors discussing raising $70 million for a potential third party.

“To be the leader of the free world, you have to lead,” Mr. Manchin said, according to the donors. audio of the call obtained by Puck News.

People close to him also see another motivation: if Mr. Manchin feels he is effective on Capitol Hill and that his party listens to him, he is more likely to run for re-election. If he’s frustrated with his party and miserable in the Senate, he’s more likely to explore other options, they say.

Nancy Jacobson, the CEO of No Labels, said her organization was trying to get a presidential candidate on the ballot in all 50 states as an “insurance policy” in case the two major parties did not support nominees.

“If Biden actually wants to make a deal on the debt ceiling or Biden actually wants to solve the border and immigration and actually solve these problems that the majority of Americans want solved, then there is no room for us,” she said. Jacobson said in an interview. “His numbers will go up, and we’ll go home.”

Manchin’s frustration with the Inflation Reduction Act began in December when he learned that Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen would allow tax credits for a range of electric vehicles instead of restricting them to commercial use, as he would have liked.

Treasury officials said they were simply following the written law. But Mr. Manchin argued that was never his intention.

The credits, he wrote to Ms. Yellen, were “for commercial use only, and your department must follow the intentions of Congress.”

Partly because the electric vehicle tax credits have proved hugely popular, the legislation has become significantly more expensive, angering Mr Manchin, who sees himself as a deficit hawk. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill’s climate and clean energy tax cuts will cost at least $180 billion more than originally forecast.

The senator has also expressed concern that the Biden administration has been slow to approve leases for domestic energy production, arguing that officials are hesitant to do so unless a court order is issued. A government official working to roll out the legislation said the White House “expects some sales in the coming months.”

Mr Manchin also railed against John Podesta, a senior White House adviser, whom he accused of making comments that were “beyond irresponsible” because he said Chinese companies would be “major players” in US energy production .

Republicans are rushing to capitalize on the clash between Mr Manchin and the Biden administration. The Senate National Republican Committee recently released an ad drawing Mr. Manchin’s attention promise to withdraw his own bill.

“The senator in West Virginia has clearly stated that he wrote the bill,” said West Virginia Republican Senator Shelly Moore Capito, who has supported Mr. Justice. “It’s unusual to want to withdraw a bill you’ve written, but I understand he’s finally realizing what we all know: if you leave it to this government to write rules and regulations, they’re not going to stick to the letter of the law.” .”

But Mr. Manchin intends to use whatever resources he has to convince the Biden administration to see things his way. His staffers have spoken regularly with officials and he has been known to call Mr. Podesta directly.

“When Joe Manchin says something, he’s genuinely sincere,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper, a Colorado Democrat who sits on the energy committee with Mr. Manchin. He added, “We definitely want to boost production in this country, and that’s what Joe is really fighting for.”