Cruise giant Carnival is counting on a new year with record turnover and profit in 2024.

The company, which includes P&O Cruises and Cunard, which operates the Queen Mary 2, Queen Elizabeth and Queen Victoria, has benefited from post-pandemic travel demand.

Despite cost-of-living pressures hitting families, British consumers are pulling back in droves, Carnival said.

CEO Josh Weinstein said the company will enter 2024 with “the best-booked position we’ve ever seen.”

Almost two-thirds of the berths for 2024 have already been filled.

Carnival expects profits of £4.4 billion for 2024, up 30 percent on this year.

Annual turnover was £17 billion in 2023 and profits £3.3 billion.

Weinstein said: “We ended the year on a high note with another record quarter that exceeded expectations.

“In fact, we consistently outperformed in all four quarters, driven by improving demand across our brands.”

Shares rose 3.5 percent, or 46p, to 1377p. and are up almost 140 percent this year.

The US Federal Reserve appears poised to intensify its painful prescription of interest rate hikes after inflation in the world’s largest economy climbed to its highest level in more than 40 years.

In a report that sent shockwaves through financial markets, the US government said inflation rose to 9.1 percent in June, a level not seen since November 1981.

Investors last night had estimated a 60 percent probability that the Fed would raise rates by a whole percentage point at its next meeting in two weeks.

That would be the biggest rate hike since December 1980 and would follow a 0.75 percentage point hike last month.

Speculation that the Fed would take such an aggressive move increased after the Bank of Canada, also facing an inflation battle, announced a full percentage point increase yesterday.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at the Independent Advisor Alliance, said inflation in the US is now “staggeringly high.” “It is higher than expected and shows that inflation is rapidly moving in the wrong direction,” he said.

America’s increasingly aggressive response to inflation has already made the dollar steamroller rival currencies in recent weeks — and analysts warned it could get even harder.

The euro briefly dipped below the dollar level for the first time in two decades yesterday, reaching $0.99 shortly after the data was released.

Sterling also temporarily lost ground, falling to two-year lows of around $1.18.

The unrest also spread to the oil market, where Brent oil fell to $99.61 a barrel.

Stocks were also volatile, with the FTSE 100 ending 53.49 points, or 0.7 percent, lower at 7156.37, while New York’s S&P 500 sold off for a fourth straight day.

Market moves were pushed back later in the session, with some experts suggesting that inflation was now peaking and downplaying rumors of a percentage increase. US President Joe Biden said inflation numbers were “unacceptably high” but insisted the data did not reflect more recent drops in fuel prices. The Fed has raised interest rates to try and cure the scourge of inflation by cooling demand.

Rising raw material costs and supply chain bottlenecks that triggered the initial price hike may be temporary, but a sweltering labor market – with nearly two job openings available for every unemployed person – is driving up wages and threatening to prolong the crisis.

The Fed’s medicine to solve the problem, however, is to put pressure on consumers and corporate borrowers. This could have the unpleasant side effect of pushing the economy into recession.

The impact of rate hikes in the US is also being felt around the world, straining borrowers with dollar-denominated debt, as well as importers of dollar-priced goods, including oil.

US interest rates have hovered around zero since the pandemic began in early 2020, but with inflation rising much faster than the Fed had expected, the central bank dosed the economy with increases of 0.25 percentage point in March, 0.5 percentage point in May and 0.75 percentage point. points in June.

The latest move was the largest increase since 1994.

Markets expect the latest inflationary pressures to confirm another hike of at least the same magnitude.

The Fed has not raised rates by one percentage point or more since December 1980, led by Paul Volcker, a central bank chairman known for his ultra-aggressive approach to cooling the US price spiral.

In stark contrast to the Fed, the European Central Bank, which has been hit by a record inflation rate of 8.6 percent, still has an interest rate of minus -0.5 percent, although this is widely expected to change later this month.

Central banks in London and Washington look set to make sharper rate hikes next week after data on both sides of the Atlantic showed that inflationary pressures will not subside.

The dollar rocketed as US inflation data for August came in at a higher-than-expected 8.3 percent yesterday.

In the UK, figures showing unemployment falling to 3.6 percent, the lowest level since 1974, pointed to a tight labor market as in-demand workers demand higher wages.

The US Federal Reserve and Bank of England will be focused on cooling rampant inflation when they announce interest rate decisions next Wednesday and Thursday.

The markets are recording an increase of 0.75 percentage points for both. That would mark a hat-trick of super-big hikes in September after the European Central Bank also opted for a three-quarter point hike last week.

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com, said the US data had “fallen short of hopes of showing a real sign of cooling inflationary pressures” and pointed to a “prolonged hiking cycle” for the Fed.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said the inflation numbers “put a missile under the dollar.”

The pound fell from a two-week high of over $1.17 to as low as $1.1498 during a volatile session.

The euro fell to a low of $0.9971. Equity markets turned red on the prospect of even stronger rate hikes in the US, which would put pressure on borrowers.

The FTSE 100 gave up early gains and fell 1.2 percent, or 87.17 points, to 7385.86, while on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 4 percent, the S&P 500 fell more than 4 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell more than 5 percent.

The Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation, which hit a four-decade high of 9.1 percent in June. August’s 8.3 percent was lower than July’s 8.5 percent. But it was higher than the expected 8.1 percent.

Crucially, the “core inflation rate” — which excludes volatile energy and food prices — rose from 5.9 percent to 6.3 percent amid rising rent and healthcare costs.

In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England has made it clear that it will continue to raise interest rates in an effort to curb inflation, even if the consequences are dire.

Official figures today are expected to show that inflation remains high after 10.1 percent in July.

Yesterday’s UK figures showed that the share of people of working age in the workforce due to long-term illness reached its highest level since 2005.

A smaller workforce may be contributing to wage inflation pressures as employers look to hire new staff.

The near-collapse of the pensions market that led to a Bank of England bailout has already cost companies’ pension schemes £75 billion, according to a report from a US investment bank.

The massive loss in value reflects the exposure many private sector pension funds have to liability-based investment strategies.

They use LDIs to ensure they can pay future payouts to 10 million participants in defined benefit plans, which pay guaranteed pensions based on employees’ wages at retirement.

LDIs use leverage — or borrowing — to boost the yield of government bonds, also known as gilts.

But many funds came loose after former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget led to an unprecedented sell-off in September.

JPMorgan estimates asset sales alone have cost pension funds between £65bn and £75bn since August. That compares to total assets of £1.7 trillion at the start of this year.

The estimates are based on the bank’s forecast of this week’s figures from the Pension Protection Fund, the safety net for the interests of approximately 5,200 final salary funds.

But the final cost will likely be much higher. “We estimate that about 25 per cent of the assets have been lost,” said Iain Clacher, professor of pensions at the University of Leeds.

Supermarket group Sainsbury’s announced last week that it has made a £500 million loan available to its fund to avoid a forced sale of assets. The pension fund had already fallen by 30 per cent to £8.2 billion in the year before the LDI market exploded.

The BT pension fund, which has increased its LDI use in recent years, says it has lost £11bn in the turmoil. The telecom giant’s fund has fallen by more than £21bn since June 2021 as a result of its LDI strategies.

BT defended the use of LDIs this weekend. During this period, assets for hedging liabilities performed as intended. They have declined in value with a decrease in the present value of our future obligation to pay pensions,” it said.

‘As a result, the financing position has not deteriorated.’

Global stock markets rose and the dollar tumbled after a fall in US inflation fueled hopes of less aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Official figures showed that inflation in the world’s largest economy fell to 7.7 percent last month, the FTSE 100 index rose 1.1 percent and the FTSE 250 rose 3.9 percent.

The rally resonated in the US, where the technology-intensive Nasdaq gained 2.7 percent and the S&P 500 gained 4.7 percent on Wall Street.

The dollar also plunged, with the pound rising more than 2 percent to $1.17 in its biggest one-day gain since 2017.

Japan’s troubled yen had its best session since 2016 after being battered by the rampant greenback for much of the year.

The fall in inflation, from 8.2 percent in September to 7.7 percent last month, the lowest level since January and well below the peak of 9.1 percent in June, fueled hopes that the Fed will slow the pace of inflation. interest rate hikes in the US will slow down.

“Inflation is still too high, but there are indications that the Fed has turned the corner in its battle and that the pace of future rate hikes will slow,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWD Bonds in New York.

“The market is on fire and the long-awaited moderation of inflation is finally starting to show.”

The Fed has raised interest rates more this year than at any time since the 1980s, bringing it to between 3.75 and 4 percent.

That’s the highest level since 2008. The gains have sent the dollar skyrocketing and stock markets plummeting as investors around the world adjust to higher borrowing costs after years of cheap money.

But the dollar has been easing in recent weeks as investors bet the Fed will slow down soon.

Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at MUFG in London, said the inflation numbers “reinforced the sell-off in the dollar.”

US technology stocks have been particularly hard hit this year. But they rebounded yesterday with Amazon up 11.3 percent, Microsoft up 6.4 percent, Apple up 7 percent, Facebook owner Meta up 10.2 percent, and Google parent Alphabet up 10.1 percent. 7.3 percent.

In a boost for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his chancellor Jeremy Hunt ahead of next week’s fall statement, government borrowing costs around the world also fell.

Ten-year government bond yields – a key measure of how much the government pays to borrow – fell below 3.3 percent after rising above 4.5 percent in September in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget.

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points next month and then by 0.25 percentage points after that to a peak of 4.75 percent to 5 percent — lower than the 5 percent plus recorded before the inflation data came out. published.

But experts warned investors not to get ahead of themselves.

Danni Hewson of broker AJ Bell said: ‘Increased prices for things like food and shelter hang stubbornly, and another hike in the price to pay for fuel at the pumps will be a real thrill for American motorists, as well as a visible daily reminder . of what’s going on with the economy.’

All of these factors could mean the Fed won’t step off the rate hike for a while, she added.

Redrow has blamed the recent mini-budget financial market turmoil on a sharp downturn in sales of its new-build homes, forcing it to lower its revenue outlook.

In a further sign that the property market is cooling, the FTSE 250 developer said net private bookings fell 19 percent over the past four months to £515 million compared to the same period a year ago.

While it still benefited from rising house prices – with the average sale price rising 6.9 per cent to £483,000 – Redrow was cautious about the future.

It said it had bought only 724 new plots – half of the 1,495 acquired last year – as it remained “selective” due to economic uncertainty.

The total forward order book stood at £1.36 billion on 6 November, nearly 9 per cent less than last year’s £1.49 billion.

Ahead of today’s annual general meeting, chairman Richard Akers told investors that the housing market had returned to “normal” after booming during the pandemic.

“However, recent financial market instability has had a negative impact on the housing market and the company has had to adapt to the changing economic outlook,” he added.

The company now expects revenue for 2023 to be around £2.1bn, in line with the previous year but lower than its previous guidance of £2.3bn to £2.4bn.

Despite lowered forecasts, Redrow Shares rose 0.4 percent to 473.80p in morning trading on Friday.

Homebuilders have benefited from rapidly rising house prices and government support measures during the pandemic.

But in recent weeks, they have noticed falling demand for real estate as the cost of living crisis and rising mortgage rates hit the market hard.

Mortgage rates shot up above 6 percent after former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s widely criticized mini-budget in September.

This week, fellow developer Taylor Wimpey reported that 24 percent of home purchases in the second half of the fiscal year were canceled — up from 14 percent in 2021 — as the economic climate deteriorates.

Last month Barratt, the UK’s largest homebuilder, issued a profit warning after a dive in reservations.

House prices have already started to fall, according to the latest RICS survey, with realtors across the country reporting a downturn in October.

Respondents in all parts of the UK now believe, on balance, that prices will fall somewhat over the coming year.

The pound climbed back above $1.20 against the US dollar for the first time in three months, a boost for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt ahead of tomorrow’s fall statement.

The British pound has risen in recent days as the greenback weakens on speculation that the aggressive pace of rate hikes in the US could slow.

The recovery represents a strong rebound after the chaos of former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-budget, which saw the pound hit an all-time low of less than $1.04 in September.

Yesterday, the pound rose nearly three cents to $1.2025 – its highest level since August 18 and 16 percent above its low of $1.0386 seven weeks ago.

The gains later partially faded and the British pound fell below $1.19. Sterling also rose against the Euro, rising by as much as one cent to €1.1478.

The rally was partly due to official data showing a stronger-than-expected 5.7 percent wage increase in the UK.

That could add to the ammunition of the Bank of England hawks who are pushing for another big rate hike next month to fight inflation.

But the broader currency story in recent days has been dollar weakness after US consumer price inflation data for October came in weaker than expected last week.

Yesterday, US farm and factory inflation data also came in milder than forecast, adding to the sense that the US price spiral may have peaked.

That would give the US Federal Reserve room to scale back the aggressive pace of rate hikes in recent months.

The pound’s position heading into the fall statement is much stronger than it was under Liz Truss’s short-lived and chaotic premiership.

Even before the mini budget, the pound was trading below $1.13 following a summer of political uncertainty following the impeachment of Boris Johnson.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has tried to reassure markets that the government will get a grip on public finances

Since Truss was taken out, Hunt and her replacement Rishi Sunak have tried to reassure markets that they will get a grip on public finances – undoing most of Kwarteng’s ill-received and unfunded tax cuts, and the likelihood of further drastic action increased this week.

The pound’s weakness has had some benefits, such as attracting American tourists to London and making manufactured goods more competitive for export customers. But it has increased the inflationary pressures faced by consumers and businesses as dollar-denominated imports become more expensive.

The pound is still down 12 percent against the dollar so far this year.

Gilts – parcels of British government debt – were another victim of the mini-Budget.

The market turmoil pushed investors to demand rates of more than 4.5 percent for buying 10-year government bonds, the highest rate since the 2008 financial crisis, but they have since fallen to about 3.3 percent.

More turbulence could be ahead as Hunt tries to plug the £50bn public finance black hole without crushing economic growth.

Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at CIBC Capital Markets, said: “We have the fiscal statement coming up and it’s going to be a sea of ​​negativity.

That said, with the degree of policy tightening, the debate will be about how much of it will come in the next two years, and how much will be pushed to the next parliament rather than this one. .’

The head of the City Watchdog has admitted it was unprepared for the risk pension funds face from the surge in UK bond yields following Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget.

Nikhil Rathi, chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority, told a House of Lords select committee that the threat was not “at the very top of the radar”.

Colleagues are investigating how a bond market sell-off following Kwarteng’s disastrous fiscal statement led to a pension fund crisis that resulted in a £65bn Bank of England intervention.

The collapse in bond prices forced the mutual funds (Liability Driven Investment Funds, LDIs) used by some pension plans to scramble for cash.

Rathi explained that yields on UK bonds – which move in the opposite direction to prices – have risen by 2.5 percentage points in just five days “which has not happened at any major point in our history, at that particular risk has not been tested’.

Climate change and social concerns should not divert attention from the fight against galloping inflation, warned central bank chiefs on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday.

Jerome Powell, head of the US Federal Reserve, said at a global conference that “we must stick to our knitting” as officials around the world battle the cost of living.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, meanwhile, expressed frustration at an ever-lengthening list of demands from the Treasury, leaving the Bank on “difficult ice”.

Central bankers around the world are battling decades of high inflation after the war in Ukraine drove up energy and food prices.

But in recent years they have also been called upon to address a much wider range of societal issues, from climate change to inequality, while going beyond their traditional job of controlling prices.

Speaking at a conference of central bankers, Powell said: “We must stick to our knitting and not stray to pursue perceived social benefits that are not closely tied to our legal goals and authorities. We are not and will not be a climate policy maker.’

Bailey told the Stockholm conference that while the bank’s mission of pursuing 2 percent inflation was enshrined in law, the Chancellor would also write to him “from time to time” to tell him about “other objectives of the government’s public policy’.

He said the letters seemed to have become “longer and more complicated” and that his predecessor, the only one, Mervyn King “used to get simpler letters.”

Bailey said, “The longer the letters get, the more prone you are to get into the world of value judgments. Then we are treading on difficult ice.’

Central banks have responded to rising inflation by aggressively raising interest rates and winding down huge asset purchase programs that had previously been deployed to stimulate growth.

But some argue that higher borrowing costs could hamper the investments needed to transition from fossil fuels to renewables.

Fewer bond purchases also reduce the ability of central banks to help finance the transition by shifting those purchases to green investments.

Bailey made it clear that while the Bank’s current move to sell its corporate bonds may not be the best way to combat climate change, it is the “right thing to do” in the fight against inflation.

He said, “You have to make these tough decisions. I’m sure we’re not very popular in some circles to do that, but I think it’s the right decision.’

King, who also attended the conference, said: “There are plenty of other people who can take action to combat climate change and I am concerned that people, in their great enthusiasm to do good, are jeopardizing central bank independence. to take.’

Many central bankers broadly accept the importance of tackling climate change, but there is division over how to do it.

European Central Bank interest rate setter Isabel Schnabel said her bank needs to step up efforts to make monetary policy more climate-friendly, possibly through its multi-trillion-euro bond holdings.