Follow our Olympic Games coverage in the run-up to the Paris Olympics.
For years, the sound of “The Star-Spangled Banner” was ubiquitous at all Olympic swimming venues.
From the 1992 Games in Barcelona to the pandemic-postponed 2021 Games in Tokyo, the U.S. swimming team won more gold medals than any of its competitors. The national anthem was played over and over again as the Americans collected their gold medals on the podium. The last time Team USA did not win the most gold medals at a single Olympic Games was in 1988, when it finished second to East Germany. None of the swimmers on the current roster were alive at the time.
American swimmers have won the total medal count and the gold medal count so many times over the years that it’s almost a given. Sure, it helps that Michael Phelps won 23 by himself over four Olympics, but he wasn’t alone. The Americans were often the best in the world in their best events, and they were often successful in relays as well.
Now that dominance is far from assured. Heading into the Paris Games, the Australians are the favorites to win the most gold medals in the pool. The Aussies defeated the Americans a year ago at the world championships in Fukuoka, Japan, with 13 gold medals to the Americans’ seven. Although Team USA won the overall medal count (38 to 25), the color of their haul was less golden than usual.
Paris could be the same. It is a possibility that the Americans do not shy away from and are determined to avoid.
“Historically, the U.S. has done the best job of any country in the world in being better and performing at a higher level,” said U.S. women’s head coach Todd DeSorbo. “There are certainly events for both genders where we have a significant amount of catching up to do, but I’m confident in the motivation, excitement and dedication of everyone — men and women — on the team who are willing to do that and do some pretty special things.”
Count Australian star Cate Campbell among those hoping for the opposite. She enjoyed what she heard at the World Cup — or rather, what she didn’t.
“Australia winning is one thing, but beating America is just so much sweeter,” Campbell said told Australia’s Channel 9 last August. “There were a couple nights, especially the first night of the season, that we didn’t have to hear ‘The Star-Spangled Banner’ blaring through the stadium, and I can’t tell you how happy that made me.
“If I ever hear that song again, it will be too soon.”
It was the first time since 2001 that the U.S. did not take home the most gold medals at a world championship meet. Of the nine swimmers who won multiple individual gold medals, Katie Ledecky was the only American swimmer to do so. “The world is getting better,” Bob Bowman, the U.S. head coach at the world championships, told reporters in Japan. The Aussies set five world records at that meet alone. Neither seven-time Olympic gold medalist Caeleb Dressel nor two-time gold medalist Simone Manuel competed in Japan, and both will swim in Paris.
Katie Ledecky is the favorite to win gold in the 800- and 1,500-meter freestyle in Paris, but most other races are too exciting to predict. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Campbell failed to qualify for Paris, but her comments have resonated widely, including one in which she called the Americans “sore losers” for celebrating the most medals overall as the Aussies nearly doubled their gold medal tally. It struck a chord with Phelps, who was a commentator for NBC during the U.S. trials last month. He said that if a competitor talked about him that way, he would “make them eat every word they just said about me” and hoped the Americans would use the clip as motivation.
“Well, the good news is the Olympics are coming up soon, and we’ll be able to see what the results are,” Phelps said.
For the first time in a long time, it’s hard to know what to expect. Ledecky, a seven-time Olympic gold medalist, is the favorite to win gold in the 800 meters and 1,500 meters freestyle. Otherwise, the races are too competitive to predict with certainty. And Ledecky’s rival, Australian Ariarne Titmus, is the favorite to win the 400 meters freestyle, with fellow Australian Mollie O’Callaghan headlining the 100 meters and 200 meters freestyle.
Dressel, the American sprint star, will get a chance to defend his gold medals in Tokyo in the 50-meter freestyle and 100-meter butterfly. He looked strong at the trials, but he’s still trying to make a comeback after an eight-month hiatus from swimming from mid-2022 to early 2023. (He failed to qualify for the 100-meter freestyle as an individual event at the trials in Paris, so he won’t be able to defend his gold.) Bobby Finke is the favorite to win the 1,500-meter freestyle, and Ryan Murphy is expected to compete in both backstroke events. But overall, the three aren’t likely to repeat their success in Tokyo.
Caeleb Dressel returns as the face of the U.S. men’s team and gets the chance to defend his gold medals in the 50-meter freestyle and 100-meter butterfly. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Gretchen Walsh, Regan Smith and Kate Douglass will join Ledecky on the women’s team, but the trio have far less Olympic experience than she does. Walsh (100 butterfly) and Smith (100 backstroke) set world records at trials and will compete in their events in Paris, but these are Walsh’s first Games and Smith won two silvers (200 butterfly, medley relay) and one bronze (100 backstroke) in Tokyo. Those events are also loaded. Australia’s Kaylee McKeown will be tough to beat in both backstroke events, while Canada’s Maggie MacNeil and Summer McIntosh are top contenders in the 100 butterfly, as is China’s Zhang Yufei.
Douglass won bronze in the 200-meter individual medley in Tokyo, but she will swim an expanded schedule after qualifying at the trials to swim the 200 butterfly and 200 individual medleys. (She also qualified for the 100 freestyle but later dropped it.) While she set several championship records at the trials, she faces a tough road ahead with McIntosh, the Canadian phenom, and McKeown in the 200 individual medley (as well as teammate Alex Walsh).
Of the biggest names on Team USA, many will likely win a medal at the Games, though it may not be gold. Two-time breaststroke gold medalist Lilly King, versatile distance swimmer Katie Grimes, and male breaststrokers Nic Fink and Matt Fallon could all medal. And so could Carson Foster, though he’s unlikely to win gold in either IM race because of the heavily favored Frenchman, Léon Marchand.
The relays will also be extremely competitive. Team USA will be the favorite in the men’s 4×100-meter freestyle relay and the women’s medley relay, but the American women trail the Australians in both freestyle relays, and the men will face stiff competition from China in the men’s medley and Great Britain in the 4×200-meter freestyle relay. The British won their first gold in that relay in Tokyo. It was the first time that the U.S. (men or women) had not won a medal in an Olympic relay event.
But perhaps most strikingly, the makeup of the team is vastly different from what it was just two Games ago, with Phelps and Ryan Lochte leading the roster in Rio de Janeiro alongside a top-form Ledecky and a schedule that stretched from the 200 freestyle to the 800 freestyle. Even with Ledecky and Dressel headed to Paris, this roster lacks the star power that U.S. swimming typically enjoys, particularly in the men’s division. Dressel will swim multiple events, but he’s long been an enigma and not one to want the world to know everything about himself. Phelps and Lochte were endlessly compelling characters, and they were on TV nearly every day of the Games in their heyday because of the breadth of their events.
Still, USA Swimming President and CEO Tim Hinchey III has said the organization’s goal is to win the total number of medals and the number of gold medals. But is that achievable? The Americans will find out soon enough.
“I thought we were in a good position relative to the rest of the world before the trials, and after the trials I think we were in an even better position,” DeSorbo said. “We’re just ready to go to camp (in Croatia), go to Paris and let the Games begin.”
GO DEEPER
US Olympic Swimming Trials: Caeleb Dressel is back, Katie Ledecky is still there
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; photos of Katie Ledecky and Caeleb Dressel: Tom Pennington and Al Bello/Getty Images)
