The 2024 Ballon d’Or nominees: Who deserves to win? Who was unlucky and is not there?

There is no ‘I’ in ‘team’, but there is in ‘best player in the world’. And that is where the Ballon d’Or comes in.

Crowning the world’s best footballer of the past year may seem like a fool’s errand, given the many nuances involved. But that’s what France Football magazine has been doing since 1956. On Wednesday night, the nominees for the 2024 men’s award were announced.

The big names are all there (you’d think so, as there are 30 players on the shortlist) and a group of pesky journalists will vote on them before the winner is announced on October 28.

Now that we know the identities of the players who can be considered the sport’s top stars (and for the first time since 2003, it won’t be Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo), we can discuss who was lucky to be included, who was unlucky not to be there, and who seems certain to win.

Here are four writers of The Athletics criticize this year’s Ballon d’Or nominations.

Who was the most surprising entry?

Ademola Lookman enjoyed a night to remember when he scored a hat-trick in the Europa League final in May. It was a campaign in which he also helped Nigeria reach the final of the Africa Cup of Nations, scoring three goals.

Lookman didn’t set the world alight all season, though, playing just 55 percent of Atalanta’s league minutes as he was rotated in and out of Gian Piero Gasperini’s team. He had a strong season, to be sure, but it might come as a surprise to see him in the top 30 players of the year.

Mark Carey

GALLING DEEPER

Ademola Lookman on his Europa League heroics with Atalanta and scoring ‘for the streets’

Vitinha. A very good player, that’s for sure, but what did I miss? Compared to the other midfielders on the shortlist and what they’ve achieved, it’s hard to make an argument in his favour – especially after Portugal’s disappointing Euro 2024.

Dani Olmo is also lucky. He deserves to be considered among the best players in the world and he was exceptional in Germany last summer, but he has rarely shown that form in the Bundesliga or Champions League in 2023-24. In fact, he has started just 19 games in those competitions combined.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

Dani Olmo joined Barcelona from RB Leipzig this summer (Alex Caparros/Getty Images)

Dani Olmo had a good Euro and while that is important, the award should reflect the whole of last season. In that case someone like Riccardo Calafiori deserves it more, because he excelled for Bologna. As a Wolves fan, I am still surprised how high Vitinha has risen. Also, the award should take into account good behaviour and fair play, so Emi Martinez should consider himself lucky (don’t @ me Aston Villa fans, I’m just joking).

Tim Spiers

GALLING DEEPER

Vitinha and his remarkable journey from Wolves bench player to Portuguese midfield maestro

Honestly, Emiliano Martinez. I think his year was 2022 with the World Cup, but I don’t think his season is worthy of a Ballon d’Or nomination. He won the Copa America and I see some justification in that, but with Aston Villa, although they had a good season, they ‘only’ qualified for the Champions League. I understand what that means for the club, but I don’t know if he deserves a nomination.

Laia Cervello Herrero

Which player was most unlucky to be left out of the squad?

If we’re going to go by attacking numbers alone, Serhou Guirassy might be disappointed not to be on the list. With 28 goals (plus three assists), only six players in Europe’s top five leagues have contributed more goals than Guirassy last season — and five of them are on the list (poor Ollie Watkins).

Guirassy’s 1.1 goals per 90 last season was unmatched by any other player in Europe and earned him a move to Borussia Dortmund, but unfortunately wasn’t enough to earn him a place on this shortlist.

Mark Carey

Jamal Musiala was probably the most talented player to be overlooked, but what about Lukas Hradecky, the Bayer Leverkusen goalkeeper and captain? Leverkusen are well represented in Florian Wirtz, Alex Grimaldo and Granit Xhaka and all three deserve their places, but Hradecky was subtly fundamental to what Xabi Alonso’s team achieved, reaching an extremely high level that many previously thought he was incapable of.

After all, he was just one match away from leading a team to an undefeated national and continental triple.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

Again, if we look at the form over the year, it doesn’t make sense that Mats Hummels is there and Virgil van Dijk isn’t. Jamal Musiala was definitely one of the top 30 players of last season. And with 19 goals and 13 assists for his club, plus winning the Premier League and the Copa America, Julian Alvarez deserves a shout-out.

The most disappointing thing is that, especially in an AFCON year, there is only one African player on the list. The inclusion of Ademola Lookman may have more to do with Atalanta than Nigeria.

If William Troost-Ekong had been named best player at the European Championship instead of AFCON, he would certainly have been there, as would James Rodriguez at the Copa America, but this remains a Eurocentric award that is almost exclusively given to players based on the continent. It is very strange that Lionel Messi is not included.

Tim Spiers

Call me old school or romantic, but Leo Messi. Yes, I know he doesn’t play in any of the big leagues, but I find it strange to see a trophy he earned every year before, without him after… 18 years? I know he’s been injured for months and it hasn’t been his best season, but he also won the Copa America with Argentina, just like Martinez.

Laia Cervello Herrero

Lionel Messi has won eight Ballons d’Or – a ninth will not come this year (Buda Mendes/Getty Images)

Who will finish in the top three?

Rodri, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Junior — in that order.

Mark Carey

Vinicius Jr, Rodri, Erling Haaland.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

Vinicius Junior has not yet made it into the top three of the Ballon d’Or election (Thomas Coex/AFP via Getty Images)

It’s hard to imagine Rodri or Vinicius Jr. not being there. As for the third player, based on previous voting habits, it’s likely to be between Dani Carvajal, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappe and maybe Lautaro Martinez. Let’s say Carvajal.

Tim Spiers

I can definitely imagine Rodri and Vinicius Jr. being in the top three and Kylian Mbappé being in third place.

And I know that many will disagree and say that it is very hasty because he has not played a full season at Barcelona, ​​but Lamine Yamal, despite his youth and the fact that it is his first full season in the elite, also deserves a place because of the weight he had at the Spanish champions of Euro 2024 and at a club as big as Barca at 17 years old. His level was extraordinary. Maybe I say this too early, but I will just leave this suggestion here and go.

Laia Cervello Herrero

Who do you think will win, and who should win?

All roads lead to Rodri. He is the most consistent, dominant, influential player for club and country in the last 12 months. He has his fingerprints all over everything his team does well – in and out of possession – with a Premier League and European Championship to show for it.

It is high time that more midfielders win this individual trophy. No one deserves it more.

Mark Carey

Manchester City’s Rodri — a popular choice (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Vinicius Jr will probably win, but Rodri probably should. It still feels like attacking players are over-privileged, as is success and achievement in the Champions League. It’s quite interesting that despite what Manchester City have achieved during his time at the club, Rodri has never made it into the top three. Understandable in a way, as it can be difficult to accurately assess his contribution, but also clearly an oversight.

Seb Stafford-Bloor

GALLING DEEPER

Why Rodri winning the Ballon d’Or would be both good and bad news for Manchester City

Rodri.

Tim Spiers (that’s just my name, I don’t think I should win it)

Rodri. Although there are players like Dani Carvajal who have won all the major trophies, such as the Champions League, La Liga and the European Championship, I think that Rodri — although he has not won the Champions League — deserves it for what he brings to Manchester City, one of the best teams in Europe.

His position is underestimated in the individual awards, but I think he is the one who should win, and I think he will.

Laia Cervello Herrero

The shortlist for the Ballon d’Or: Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid), Phil Foden (Man City), Ruben Dias (Man City), Federico Valverde (Real Madrid), Emiliano Martinez (Aston Villa), Erling Haaland (Man City), Nicolas Williams (Athletic Bilbao), Granit Xhaka (Bayer Leverkusen), Artem Dovbyk (Roma), Toni Kroos (Real Madrid), Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid), Martin Odegaard (Arsenal), Dani Olmo (Barcelona), Florian Wirtz (Bayer Leverkusen), Mats Hummels (Roma) , Rodri (Man City), Declan Rice (Arsenal), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Cole Palmer (Chelsea), Vitinha (PSG), Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid), William Saliba (Arsenal), Lamine Yamal (Barcelona), Bukayo Saka (Arsenal), Hakan Calhanoglu (Inter Milan), Antonio Rudiger (Real Madrid), Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid), Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan), Ademola Lookman (Atalanta), Alex Grimaldo (Bayer Leverkusen)

(Top photos: Getty Images)