The Athletic’s NFL QB Stock Report, Week 1: Patrick Mahomes First, Everyone Else
Quarterbacks have never been more valuable in the NFL, and that’s true on multiple fronts now.
Teams not only need a great one to compete for the Super Bowl, they also need to be good at asset management to maintain roster integrity around these exploding contracts. Nineteen quarterbacks make at least $30 million annually — just six years after Matt Ryan became the first $30 million QB — including eight who have already broken the $50 million barrier.
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The salary cap dynamic has changed as the league’s revenues have increased, largely from new media deals and partnerships with sports betting sites, so there’s more money to go around. And because of that, teams that have even a decent quarterback are more willing than ever to fetch market value to keep him.
As such, the QB spotlight has never been brighter, so we’re introducing a new weekly feature this season. We’ll be publishing “The Athletics “QB stock report” every Tuesday morning, starting with a power ranking of the 32 starters and highlighting four to six notable players or trends during each story.
We’ll keep an eye on whose stocks change the most dramatically, which QBs are under the most pressure, who has the most interesting upcoming matchups, and a variety of other categories that seem relevant for a given week.
So with that, welcome to our Week 1 Stock Report! It’s our pre-season look at how things are going and a great way to set expectations before anyone takes the field. It’ll also be a great way to gauge the most notable risers and fallers between now and the end of the season.
We look forward to telling you this every week.
The Athletic’s Week 1 QB Rankings
The Mahomes Spotlight
Now a three-time Super Bowl champion and two-time NFL MVP, Mahomes has established himself as the new standard in the post-Tom Brady era.
It’s been clear for a while now that Mahomes is the best in the league, but he led the Kansas City Chiefs to another Lombardi Trophy last season while wading through as much on-court chaos as they’ve ever seen. For so long in the regular season, the Chiefs’ skill players have been inconsistent at best and mistake-prone in key moments, but Mahomes has almost always found a way to rebound in key situations, especially during the playoffs.
Later this week, our annual league survey of executives and coaches will reveal that Mahomes is the runaway MVP prediction. While the outcome was no surprise, the seismic shift in voting was certainly a statement. The league has learned never to write Mahomes off.
The gap between Mahomes and the rest of the field is wider than ever.
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Breakthrough candidates
Who can become the Stroud this year?
Tagovailoa has the numbers, but needs to make more plays off the grid and in clutch moments against quality opponents to load the board. Lawrence has undeniable top-10 potential if he can be more consistent and get the Jacksonville Jaguars back in the playoffs. Hurts will return to the MVP conversation if new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and Co. can get it done in Philly.
Most of the attention, though, might be on the NFC North with Love and Williams. Love was absolute dynamite for much of the Green Bay Packers’ final 12 games, including the playoffs, and he parlayed those two months into a four-year, $220 million contract. If that were just a starting point, Love would easily finish the season in the top 10.
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Williams has the talent to get there, but let’s not pretend that a Stroud-like performance happens every season. Williams is working with one of the best casts of skill players in the league, so he’s primed for immediate success if the offensive line steps up. Chicago Bears fans should be thrilled with the direction the franchise is headed.
Richardson, Daniels, Levis and Young are outside candidates to make a big jump. It’s also possible that Watson is far too low on this list, and he could fly in the top half if the Cleveland Browns pick up where they left off in 2023.
Keep an eye on Murray, too. Now that he’s healthy and has Marvin Harrison Jr. in the lineup, Murray could do some impressive things with highly respected OC Drew Petzing. The Arizona Cardinals are a team on the rise. How high they climb may depend on Murray.
Buy The Athletic 2024 Fantasy Football Guide and read expert reviews and everything you need to know to win your fantasy football competition.
Buy The Athletic 2024 Fantasy Football Guide to read expert reviews.
Questions about injuries
There are a handful of quarterbacks at different stages of their careers who are at a higher risk of injury in 2024.
Burrow’s ceiling is limited only by injuries, but there have been plenty. A devastating knee injury ended his rookie season early in 2020, and he was sidelined again in 2023 with a torn ligament, not to mention a calf injury that wiped out most of his summer. He’s played through other notable ailments in 2021 and 2022. Burrow has the potential to close the gap on Mahomes in the future, but that will never happen if he can’t play back-to-back healthy seasons.
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Herbert has all the physical tools, of course, but he’s also racked up injuries. He missed most of training camp with a plantar fascia injury and has dealt with finger injuries and a broken rib cartilage in recent seasons. There’s optimism that new head coach Jim Harbaugh can take Herbert’s game to the next level, but the QB has struggled to overcome those nagging injuries.
Lawrence was plagued by injuries last season and battled a number of ailments that ultimately cost him his life when he missed the first game of his career. Was this a one-off season or is this becoming a trend?
Rodgers and Cousins are both coming off ruptured Achilles tendons, and their new(er) employers remain hopeful that their respective rookies can turn the fortunes of their franchises around. Rodgers lasted four snaps with the New York Jets, while Cousins inked a four-year, $180 million contract to help coach Raheem Morris usher in a new era with the Atlanta Falcons.
Watson hasn’t recaptured his Houston production, whether due to his extended absence due to his suspension or the injuries that followed. He’s been cleared to play for the Browns, but the organization is still monitoring his strength after he suffered a displaced fracture in his right shoulder.
Richardson showed electric potential in parts of four games as a rookie, but he also went down in every start, including a concussion and a season-ending right shoulder sprain. Richardson has perhaps the largest gap between his ceiling and floor of any starter in the league. We’ll find out this year whether he’s injury-prone or if his injuries were just bad luck that will be forgotten as he becomes a star.
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There’s a saying in the NFL that “injured guys stay injured,” but there are exceptions. Jackson overcame back-to-back injury-plagued seasons to win his second MVP. Purdy and Tagovailoa were in the MVP conversation last season after overcoming their own injury woes in 2022. Murray looked good late in the season after recovering from his ACL tear.
As always, injuries play a major role in the course of the season.
Rookie in the spotlight
Williams, Daniels and Nix have already been named starters. Drake Maye will open the season on the New England Patriots bench, but it’s only a matter of time before he takes over for Brissett. Michael Penix Jr. is firmly in Love’s plans behind Cousins for the foreseeable future. JJ McCarthy is out for the year with a torn meniscus.
Williams rightly has the highest expectations as the No. 1 pick in the best situation. Daniels will likely make a viral play every week, but the Washington Commanders are likely to be inconsistent. Before the draft, Nix was viewed as a point guard who could be a solid starter in the right situation, and coach Sean Payton’s colleagues around the league believe Nix has that. Maye looked like the better quarterback late in camp but should benefit from an early reprieve as the Patriots try to address concerns on the offensive line.
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2025 NFL Mock Draft: 3 QBs in the Top 15; James Pearce Jr., Abdul Carter go 1-2
It’s an exciting rookie class, but they need time and resources to develop. Often, the heralded 2021 QB class hasn’t had that luxury, and four of the five first-rounders are already on different teams as a result.
Let’s change the story with the class of 2024.
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(Photo illustration: Daniel Goldfarb/The Athletic; photo: Ryan Kang/Getty Images)
