The Athletic’s NFL QB stock report, Week 2: Stroud, Mayfield shine, Cousins, Levis plummet
It was a predictably sloppy season-opening week across the board, and the NFL’s top quarterbacks were not exempt from miscues or substandard performances.
Patrick Mahomes threw a single touchdown pass, just the second time that’s happened in a September game since 2020. Josh Allen had to overcome an early 14-point deficit at home. Lamar Jackson missed three consecutive throws with the game on the line in the waning moments.
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Joe Burrow lost to the New England Patriots, in part because Tanner Hudson fumbled on the goal line. Trevor Lawrence lost to the Miami Dolphins, in part because Travis Etienne fumbled on the goal line. Caleb Williams, who tallied the fewest passing yards of any Week 1 starter, won his debut because the Chicago Bears scored on a punt block and interception return. It’s a total team game.
Furthermore, the fourth-quarter comeback bids fell short. Jackson, Burrow, Lawrence, Jordan Love, Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray all had opportunities to tie or take the lead with late possessions but couldn’t complete the rallies.
As such, we tried not to overreact with the QB rankings. There were some big movers, to be sure, but no one necessarily jumped a tier. It was more about distinguishing themselves from other quarterbacks with relatively similar reputations.
The Athletic’s Week 2 QB rankings
Biggest movers
It’s easier to make big moves up the board from the bottom third, as Gardner Minshew (+7), Jacoby Brissett (+5), Sam Darnold (+5) and Derek Carr (+4) did this week. So let’s focus more on the two big jumps from the heavier-trafficked areas of the board.
Baker Mayfield rocketed up five spots after going 24-of-30 for 289 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-20 victory against the Washington Commanders. He also scrambled three times for 21 yards.
.@bakermayfield‘s was cookin’ in Week 1:
🔥 24/30
🔥 289 yards
🔥 4 TDs@Buccaneers | @FedEx pic.twitter.com/7CaMLQyBhX— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored 37 points, matching their 2023 season high, during their first game of the reunion between Mayfield and offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Their offense was said to be ahead of last year’s pace throughout training camp, and the impressive showing lent validity to that claim.
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No, the expectations for the Commanders aren’t high, but Mayfield looked poised and in control throughout the one-sided win. The pair of touchdown passes to Mike Evans offered a tantalizing view of what could lie ahead for this group.
C.J. Stroud, who moved up four spots, gets his own category below, so we’ll save the compliments for later.
On the downside, Will Levis (-7) and Cousins (-5) plummeted the most, and Justin Herbert (-3), Bryce Young (-3) and Daniel Jones (-3) also took some tumbles.
Levis had some early flashes before struggling in the second half, and his pick six might have been the worst offensive play of Week 1. He has to stay more composed to improve his standing in the rankings.
.@dreamchaserTy10 JUST DID THAT 🫡
📺: #TENvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/oW5IzEYZbR
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 8, 2024
Don’t sound the alarms on Cousins just yet. It was his first game back from a torn Achilles, playing for a new team and against an impressive Pittsburgh Steelers defense. T.J. Watt was the best defensive player of the week and would’ve made any QB’s life a living hell with that performance.
Consider this more of an adjustment to Cousins’ initial ranking. There’s a good deal of confidence he’ll re-establish his stock, but we probably should have tempered expectations considering the long layoff and change of scenery.
Herbert seemed somewhat conservative in his new offense, one without stalwarts Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. That approach could end up benefiting Herbert in the long run, but there will be an adjustment as he learns to play for new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
Young and Jones had disastrous openers. Young didn’t play well against the New Orleans Saints, but he didn’t have a chance to be successful with the defense surrendering points on its first nine series. Young still deserves some benefit of the doubt because everything has been so bad around him, but he can’t be so loose with the ball.
Jones, coming off a torn ACL, and the New York Giants weren’t competitive against the Minnesota Vikings. The pressure will continue to increase on all parties throughout the season if the results don’t improve.
The second coming
Stroud, a second-year star, was very good in a table-setting 29-27 road win against an Indianapolis Colts team that figures to challenge for a playoff spot and maybe even the AFC South title. He finished 24-of-32 for 234 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers.
Stroud was clutch, too. The Colts finished the game with three consecutive touchdown drives, and Stroud answered the first two with TDs and the third with a game-sealing series to run out the clock. And during that stretch, Stroud closed the game with eight consecutive completions for 58 yards, including going 3-of-3 for 33 yards and a touchdown on third and fourth down.
7️⃣ to 1️⃣2️⃣ connection 🎯
📺: @NFLonCBS / @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/m6FNH45TMA
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 8, 2024
It’s one thing to put up fantasy numbers, but Stroud has distinguished himself early in his career because he’s clutch, and it’s so obvious his teammates play better because of his presence in those moments.
He is already viewed among the league’s elite by coaches and executives. And though being ranked ahead of the likes of Jackson, Burrow and Aaron Rodgers might draw some double-takes, the prediction is he’ll earn that reputation by the end of the season.
Big day for Dallas
Dak Prescott agreed to a four-year, $240 million contract extension Sunday morning, then cruised past the Cleveland Browns by going 19-of-32 for 179 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers. Remember, the Browns allowed the fewest yards in the NFL last season and figure to have a comparable defensive unit again.
Tom Brady breaks down what Dak Prescott saw at the line of scrimmage before his touchdown pass to Brandin Cooks
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ZKwFPddjYa
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) September 8, 2024
By the way Prescott performed in training camp, there was little reason to believe contract negotiations would interfere with his play on the field, but it was surely a huge relief to get that business squared away by kickoff. He also got CeeDee Lamb incorporated with five connections for 61 yards, and those numbers weren’t bad against a quality opponent while still working his way into playing shape.
The Dallas Cowboys dealt with distractions throughout the offseason, and some won’t go away during the season no matter how well they play. The playoff performance, Prescott included, will be the true measuring stick for how this group will be evaluated.
Prescott wanted to be the first quarterback to hit the $60 million barrier, and his average annual value is $5 million north of Burrow and Lawrence. Prescott is mentally strong enough to embrace the pressure that comes with such a contract.
It’s fair to see Prescott’s new deal and expect a Super Bowl, but don’t overlook a key aspect. Mahomes is still the only quarterback in history to win a Super Bowl while playing on a contract worth at least $30 million in average annual value. It’s one thing to pay out these massive contracts to keep up with market value. So far, it’s an entirely different thing to see if a team can slay the league’s biggest dragon while operating the books with such a significant expense.
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For now, at least, any uncertainty in Dallas over Prescott’s performance should be discarded because he handled the contract and the Browns in a matter of several hours.
The dropouts
The purpose of this stock report is to measure the starting quarterbacks. With Love expected to miss time with a sprained MCL and Russell Wilson’s status up in the air with a lingering calf injury, they were bumped off the list by their replacements.
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Upon Love’s return, he’ll be reinserted somewhere around the upper middle class. Wilson’s status is more tenuous, as Justin Fields has plenty of starting experience and could theoretically play his way into the permanent starting job. Fields was good enough in an impressive road victory against his hometown Atlanta Falcons, so a full week of practice as the starter — if that’s the direction coach Mike Tomlin decides to go — could lead to even better results against the Denver Broncos.
The Steelers’ situation has quickly become interesting. Before the regular season, a few rival executives believed the Steelers might be better positioned with Fields as the starter because he’d add a different dynamic to their run game as a complement to Najee Harris. By running the ball and playing stifling defense, they could become a problem in the AFC North. That’s why Fields debuted six spots higher than Wilson’s initial ranking.
Malik Willis is in a challenging spot. He didn’t play well in three starts as a rookie with the Tennessee Titans in 2022 before being demoted to third string in 2023. The Titans traded Willis to the Green Bay Packers for a seventh-round pick less than two weeks before the season opener, so he’s had minimal time to learn the offense.
The Packers, the only winless team in the NFC North, have another tough test in their home opener against the Colts before Willis preps for a pressure-packed return to Tennessee in Week 3.
Consistency is key
A quarterback’s success still hinges so much on who he has around him, and that was evident with the original Week 1 rankings. Of the 14 QBs at the bottom of the list, only Anthony Richardson didn’t go through an offseason change of teams, head coaches or offensive coordinators/play callers. Of course, there’s a chicken-or-the-egg element at play there, too, as a lack of success generally leads to change.
So much was unknown because of those changes that a great deal of fluctuation was predictable. Ten of those 14 quarterbacks — it’d be 11 of 14 if “Steelers QB” were an umbrella category — shuffled multiple spots up or down the rankings this week. Expect that area of the rankings to see the most fluctuation until these quarterbacks establish more of a track record with their new surroundings.
Rookie watch
Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix combined for as many touchdown passes in Week 1 as Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy.
Maye and Penix opened as backups, and McCarthy will miss the season with a torn MCL.
The rookies struggled in their debuts, which is usually the case. Daniels had the best showing, completing 17 of 24 passes for 184 yards to go with 84 rushing yards and a pair of late scores in a loss to the Buccaneers. Nix struggled with a pair of interceptions but did flash late in a desperate comeback attempt against the Seattle Seahawks. Williams’ Bears beat the Titans to gloss over his rough opener.
Jayden Daniels. Too fast.
📺: #WASvsTB on FOX
📱: pic.twitter.com/iqpKiJ9Tqu— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024
All told, the trio combined to complete 60 percent of their passes for 415 yards, no touchdowns, two picks and a 61.5 passer rating. They also accounted for 138 rushing yards and three scores.
It figures to get better from here.
(Photo of Baker Mayfield: Jason Miller / Getty Images)
