The bewildered ‘poll Nostradamus’, who was convinced Kamala would win, realizes he was wrong
A pollster widely known as the “Nostradamus of the U.S. presidential election” appeared to be at a loss for words on Wednesday when he realized his prediction was wrong.
“I don’t understand,” Professor Allan Lichtman was heard saying on his since then packaged livestream of the electionswhen Trump’s landslide victory became clear.
Lichtman, 77, has successfully predicted nine out of 10 elections since 1984.
He was confident that Kamala Harris would win, first by a landslide and then by a trickle.
But as Trump stormed to victory last night, Lichtman’s miscalculation was inevitable.
“I’m not doing interviews, I’m done,” he said.
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“Time is running out,” Prof. Allan Lichtman was heard saying during the now completed livestream of the elections, which was posted on his YouTube account. He previously predicted a Kamala Harris victory, something that did not materialize Wednesday morning
“Trump has maintained his lead in Pennsylvania,” he said around 1 a.m., before Trump and six others – all of the swing type – fell to the former president.
“Good thing I have nothing to do tomorrow,” continued the 77-year-old, who predicted a Trump victory in 2016.
He then went full throttle against Trump, claiming the president would not serve his second term.
‘Do you know what happens if Trump wins? He will not serve a full term, but will hand it over to J.D. Vance,” he said, citing Trump’s advanced age.
His son, Sam, also seemed shocked by the results, which played out in real time.
Lichtman thanked his fans for tuning in before signing off for the evening.
‘I’m encouraged by all the kind emails I’ve received, many people saying we should keep doing this show.
“Tomorrow I’m going to sleep all day,” he immediately added.
At several points it appeared as if the veteran professor was grimacing and cradling his face as he followed the results on the screen.
Within an hour, the American university professor called it quits, putting a cap on a six-hour broadcast that shattered his prediction for this year’s race. “I don’t do interviews, I’m done with that,” Lichtman was heard saying as he concluded the livestream
Just last month, Lichtman came out claiming that Harris had achieved what he believed were his critical goals for victory. He told CTV News how his made-up numbers are “based on a fundamental understanding of how American presidential elections really work.
The predictions raised eyebrows – because they came from a man who has accurately predicted almost every US presidential election since 1984.
Yet Lichtman has been wrong in the past – albeit only once, in 2000, when he incorrectly predicted a win for Al Gore.
In that case, part of the prediction came true, in that Gore got the popular vote.
This time, however, that was far from the case.
Trump, in turn, became the first Republican in two decades to secure the popular vote on Wednesday, leaving behind states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and proving Lichtman wrong.
The ease with which Trump achieved victory confused Lichtman.
‘What? That’s not possible,” he exclaimed. As projections showed, Trump won the Hispanic vote in all-important Pennsylvania.
“The world is turned upside down, that’s all I can say,” Lichtman added at another point – as more states turned red.
Massaging his temples deeply as he said there had been “nothing positive for Harris yet,” he went on to do a full facepalm when it became clear that all seven states heralded as keys to victory had gone to Trump . .
At that point, the visibly defeated academic thanked audience members for tuning in, including those who mockingly donated to the fading livestream.
He then handed in his so-called ‘keys’ [to victory] were wrong’ – pointing to his 13-key method to victory of which he said Harris had met eight.
Last month he had come forward claiming that Harris had achieved what he believed in terms of his goals for victory. He told CTV News that his numbers are “based on a fundamental understanding of how American presidential elections really work. “The polls don’t tell you anything,” he continued
“Many people believe that the future of the country is at stake here, and that America’s democracy could be a thing of the past,” Lichtman concluded, adding, “I don’t think that’s an illegitimate fear.”
“I’m so concerned about the future of our elections, you know… democracy is precious, but like all precious things it can be destroyed,” he added.
Lichtman’s thirteen keys include such things as the incumbent, the charisma of the incumbent president, the charisma of the challenger, foreign policy failure, and foreign policy success.
In an interview with the New York Times, he said Trump had five of those metrics working against him — enough for the professor to wrongly determine he would lose.
