The Jaguars overestimate themselves. Did they overestimate Trevor Lawrence too?

The NFL’s biggest surprise teams are on opposite sides of the standings through Week 4.

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 after losing their well-drafted rookie quarterback and replacing the well-traveled Sam Darnold in his place.

GO DEEPER

Rating 4-0 Teams, From Vikings’ Shocking Start to Chiefs’ WR Setback: Sando’s Pick Six

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 less than four months after rewarding their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, with a $275 million extension.

Here’s another surprise: Lawrence’s statistical production through his 54 career starts mirrors the production for Darnold through the same point in his career (Darnold has started numbers 57-60 this season).

It’s still early for a Jaguars autopsy, but so far Jacksonville fits the profile of a team that has overrated itself, most clearly symbolized in paying its quarterback. The team is facing tough questions sooner than expected as winnable games slipped away, leaving the Jaguars at 0-4 for the second time in four seasons with Lawrence and for the fourth time in 13 seasons with owner Shad Khan.

The schedule features beatable opponents over the next three weeks in the Indianapolis Colts (2-2), Chicago Bears (2-2) and New England Patriots (1-3), but plenty has gone wrong in the first four games of the Jaguars to investigate the evidence. Including that Darnold-Lawrence comp.

“It won’t end well”

The Jaguars aren’t the only team investing market-setting dollars in a question mark quarterback long before there was a deadline to make a decision. The Miami Dolphins behaved similarly with Tua Tagovailoa, as did the Arizona Cardinals with Kyler Murray. Both Lawrence and Murray signed extensions with two years left on their rookie contracts.

Shortly after the Jaguars extended Lawrence’s deal for $55 million per year, 50 coaches and executives who voted in my 2024 Quarterback Tiers poll came together to place Lawrence in Tier 3. Lawrence finished in 16th place. Tagovailoa was one spot higher. Murray was one spot lower. (These three quarterbacks’ teams are a combined 2-10 this season.)

GO DEEPER

NFL QB Tiers 2024: Only 2 join Mahomes in Tier 1; Rodgers and Herbert are out

The deal for Lawrence came after the Jaguars lost five of their last six games last season, with the lone win coming against Carolina, when Lawrence was unavailable due to injury.

“They have a quarterback who they think is a superstar, and he’s not a superstar,” one QB Tiers selector said this summer. “Owner thinks he’s a superstar. It won’t end well.”

The implication was that Lawrence can be good, but not great, and that he isn’t consistently good enough to meet sky-high expectations.

“Make no mistake, this is the best team the Jacksonville Jaguars have ever put together,” Khan told fans in late August. “Best players, best coaches. But most importantly, let’s prove it by winning now.”

The Darnold comp

After 54 starts, Darnold and Lawrence had identical won-loss records (20-34), the same yards per pass attempt (6.7) and nearly the same average aerial yards per attempt. Their passer ratings lagged behind. Darnold picked up more sacks. Lawrence suffered from more missed passes.

Lawrence had the better expected points added (EPA) per pass play, but looking at the table below, we could never conclude that one of these quarterbacks deserved a market-defining extension while the other was an abject failure.

Both players experienced terrible team situations early in their careers: Darnold with the New York Jets in the NFL’s largest media market, Lawrence with Jacksonville in the smallest.

GO DEEPER

A look at Urban Meyer’s disastrous year with Jaguars

“Good players can be in bad situations, bad players can be in good situations and sometimes it takes a while to discover the true merit,” said one veteran coach.

Lawrence severely missed two open receivers, Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr., for what would have been long touchdown passes during the Jaguars’ 24-20 loss at Houston in Week 4.

Presumably with those throws in mind, coach Doug Pederson pushed back when asked after the game about potentially taking over play-calling duties for offensive coordinator Press Taylor.

“For what?” Pederson replied. “I thought he called it a great match. As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays. It’s a two-way street.”

Lawrence missed Thomas down the right sideline for what would have been another big gain. Receivers made diving catches to secure two shorter throws. Other passes were inaccurate enough to limit yards after the catch. Most of the misses were overthrows.

“When someone sprays the ball that consistently and it’s a guy who was No. 1 overall (draft pick), I almost always feel like there’s an element of, I don’t want to say yeah, but kind of mechanical, fundamental thing,” said NFL quarterback and analyst JT O’Sullivan as he broke down every Jaguars offensive play from Week 4 for his Patreon subscribers.

O’Sullivan noted that in this play, Lawrence jumped back unnecessarily while throwing. Bad habits can develop when quarterbacks don’t trust their pass protection. Lawrence took a big hit early in the game in Houston as the Texans’ physical defensive front asserted itself.

The Jaguars rank 16th in ESPN’s pass-block winning percentage and 23rd in Pro Football Focus’ pass-block rating, which doesn’t seem too bad. Reviews from the competition were stricter.

“They’re playing up front like they can’t wait for the play to be over — hard to watch,” one personnel official said before the Houston game. “The quarterback misses easy throws. There’s bad body language. Just in general, offensively speaking, an oppressed group.”

Consider a possible Wentz parallel

The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 18th in offensive EPA per game during Pederson’s Super Bowl-winning tenure as their coach from 2016 to 2020. That period included the rise and fall of Carson Wentz. Is Lawrence following a similar arc on a smaller scale?

The chart above compares the cumulative EPA pass for Wentz and Lawrence when both were with Pederson, tied to their career starting number. The line for Wentz starts at career start No. 1, while the line for Lawrence starts at career start No. 18. There’s nothing definitive here, but this could be worth revisiting as the 2024 season progresses.

Pederson benched Wentz late in their fifth and final season together. Lawrence remains early in his fourth NFL season and third with Pederson. His five-year contract extension starts in 2026. He will likely remain in Jacksonville for years to come, regardless of who is coaching.

Nine straight losses for Lawrence

Lawrence’s current nine-game losing streak as a starter puts him one step away from tying Carson Palmer (2010) and Jared Goff (2020-21) for the longest streak since 2000 for quarterbacks drafted No. 1.

Ten would also match the Jaguars’ franchise record, held by Chad Henne and Blake Bortles.

Darnold has been there before, once losing nine straight with the Jets. But his recent team and individual production far exceeds Lawrence’s, as the table below shows.

The decision to extend Lawrence’s contract at such an expensive price is not isolated among the choices inviting Jacksonville to investigate. They used the first pick in the 2022 draft on Travon Walker instead of Aidan Hutchinson. Defensive changes on a larger scale are also noticeable.

Last season, the Jaguars ranked 23rd in offense and 11th in defense as measured by EPA per game. They fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and seven defensive assistants.

The offense is in about the same position this season (24th), but the defense is ranked much worse (30th) during the transition to a new style. Under coordinator Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville is playing man coverage at the second-highest rate (42 percent) after having the third-lowest rate (15 percent) last season.

Darnold, backed by the NFL’s top-ranked defense per EPA per play, has attempted just two passes while behind this season. The Jaguars’ record and Lawrence’s role in it would likely be footnotes if Jacksonville were to get that kind of production out of the defense this season.

The defensive changes could still pay off. Lawrence and the offense could still be successful.

The Jaguars came close to breaking open their season-opening game in Miami, but running back Travis Etienne fumbled as he approached the goal line. The Dolphins scored an 80-yard touchdown two plays later. Jacksonville led Houston 20-17 late in the third quarter when Tank Bigsby’s 58-yard run gave the Jaguars first and goal from the 4. Jacksonville turned the ball over on downs.

The 24-20 loss to Houston dropped the Jaguars to 1-4 in games decided by four or fewer points since the start of last season. Such things tend to even out. The night out can’t happen soon enough for a team looking to induct its only winningest coach, Tom Coughlin, into Ring of Honor in Week 5.

(Photo of Trevor Lawrence, right, and Doug Pederson: Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)

Scoop City Newsletter

Free, daily NFL updates delivered straight to your inbox.

Free, daily NFL updates delivered straight to your inbox.

To register