The murder of militant would blow for Hamas, but the long -term impact is unclear

The murder of Mohammed Sinwar, the influential Hamas leader Die Israel tried to kill in a recent strikeWould be a great tactical success for Israel, but the long -term meaning is unclear. The group has survived for decades despite the systematic murder of Israel of its leaders.

Mr. Sinwar, whose fate is still unknown, is considered one of the leading military commanders of Hamas in Gaza. He is the younger brother of Yahya sinwarAn architect of Hamas’ Fatal attack on Israel in October 2023, that Israeli troops killed Last year. Israeli and civil servants of the Middle East have concluded that Mr Sinwar is one of the biggest obstacles for a new cease-fire in Gaza: they say that he is one of the Hamas officers who is most to give up the arsenal of the Group Stil. Israeli.

But although powerful, Mr. Sinwar is only one of the various senior military leaders in Gaza, and far from the only Hamas leader who is opposed to concessions to Israel. His murder would undermine the group, analysts said, but perhaps may not change the strategic prospects and operational skills of Hamas Or mitigates the uncompromising approach of Israel to stop negotiations.

“If confirmed, his death would definitely be a big blow to Hamas – many of their senior military and political leaders have been killed, and Hamas cannot replace them all,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist from Gaza.

“But I am not sure if his death will lead to a compromise with Israel, and it can even have the opposite effect, if his successor turns out to be even more radical than Sinwar,” he added. “Hamas is not a one -man show and his negotiations with Israel are still dependent on a collective decision.”

The death of Mr Sinwar would probably also change the Israeli battlefield calculations. The objectives of Israel stretch much further than killing specific commanders, because it is looking for ‘total victory’ for Hamas, even if Israeli leaders have difficulty determining what that means.

For decades, Hamas has passed the murder of scores of his top leaders, which repeatedly proves that his survival is not dependent on a single individual. That has again been shown during this war. In addition to Yahya Sinwar, Israel has killed other leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh And Muhammad Deif – But did not succeed in beating Hamas as a military and administrative power.

Hamas has in any case become more indemnity in the immediate aftermath of big murders. The group has been reluctant to show weakness, even if he sometimes squeezes more in ceasefires a few months later.

After Israel Mr. Haniyeh, an important Hamas negotiator, had killed last July, the American and Palestinian officials said it had had a harmful effect on conversations about a truce. After killing Yahya Sinwar, Hamas said that his death had strengthened her determination and promised to continue the same path. Nevertheless, the group agreed three months later with a ceasefire, after concessions from both Hamas and Israel.

That mutual compromise points to another reason that Mr. Sinwar’s death would have a limited consequence in the long term: the route of the war depends just as just as of Israel as from Hamas.

Israel is looking for either a temporary ceasefire to free more from the approximately 60 hostages who are still being held in Gaza or a permanent deal that guarantees Hamas’s defeat. But Hamas resists Both scenarios, so The war will probably drag on unless Israel soften its position. Israel has already promised to greatly expand his military operations in Gaza in the coming days.

For some, Israel makes a larger obstacle for a ceasefire than Hamas. The biggest problem in Gaza is “not who leads Hamas,” said Ahmad Jamil Azem, a Palestinian political scientist at Qatar University. “The insistence of the Israeli government to continue the war is the real problem.”

Even without Mr. Sinwar has still experienced Hamas commanders in Gaza, including Izz al-Haddad, who supervises the Hamas brigades in northern Gaza, and Muhammad Shabaneh, a top officer in the south of Gaza.

Despite major losses, Hamas has also been able to replace the killed members of its lower ranks. A recent Israeli intelligence review suggested that Hamas had more than 20,000 hunters at his disposal – about the same as pre -war levels – despite the fact that thousands are killed since October 2023.

On Tuesday evening, Hamas also fired a barrage of rockets in South Israel, one of the biggest eruptions in months. The attack emphasized that Hamas still retains a few short-distance projectiles and launchers for force Israelis in air strikes a few seconds cancellation period.

A senior in the Middle -Eedn Intelligence officer, who spoke about the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters, said Hamas still managed a strategic network of tunnels under parts of Gaza City. The official also said that Hamas’s military intelligence unit had survived the war without significant damage and continued to play an important role in maintaining Hamas’s grip on power.

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Hamas tries to change the war into a stalemate and to survive the war like a movement. Thanks to those two relatively modest goals, it can endure a high level of massacre and bloodshed.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks the total defeat of Hamas, as well as the return of the hostages of the group, both alive and death. Have Israeli generals Long concluded that these two goals are mutually incompatible.

Ibrahim Dalalsha, a Palestinian political analyst, said that the strategic incoherence of Israel “strongly suggests that this will also be another footnote – instead of a transforming turning point.”