The record $241 billion holiday season is coming, Adobe predicts
Make sure you have your holiday shopping list ready as the second coming of Amazon Prime Day arrives in October and the Adobe Analytics report for holiday purchases just arrived. Adobe expects the retail frenzy to generate a record $240.8 billion in sales this year, easily surpassing last year’s $222.1 billion.
Here’s why Adobe predicts big bucks, and how you can raise your own.
Holiday shopping trends for 2024
The 2024 holiday shopping season could be one for the record books.
Adobe’s forecast covers the period from November 1 to December 31. The company’s analytics division has collected U.S. data from more than 1 trillion visits to retail sites across 18 product categories, including toys, electronics and apparel. There’s good news for anyone looking to upgrade their electronics, appliances or sporting goods. Adobe expects “heavy discounts” of up to 30% off list prices as retailers compete for business with price-conscious buyers. This might be a good time to treat yourself to a new phone or new earbuds.
Start by warming up your fingertips. The way consumers shop will undergo a change this season.
“Shopping on mobile devices is expected to reach a new milestone, contributing a record $128.1 billion and growing 12.8% year over year,” said Adobe in a statement. “This would represent a 53.2% share of online spend this season (compared to desktop shopping).”
The TikTok effect is real. Influencers will have power over many shoppers, especially members of Generation Z.
“By 2024, Adobe data showed that influencer shoppers (individuals who make a purchase after seeing influencers’ content) convert 10x more than social media overall,” the company said. “This is expected to remain strong through the holiday season.”
Best times to shop this holiday season
If shopping at Amazon is on your holiday to-do list, we’ve got the inside scoop on the best Prime Big Deal Day bargains. Take advantage of early offers or shop the main event on October 8 and 9. Adobe expects Amazon’s price cuts will prompt other retailers to offer discounts. If you miss that window, there are still plenty of opportunities for good buys in November and December.
Adobe Analytics has created a calendar of expected discounts for each day of the 2024 holiday shopping season.
Adobe recommends keeping an eye on Cyber Week – a period that includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday – as “the best time to shop for bargain hunters.”
Timing is important. You may want to plan some shopping time around your turkey party. The company recommends purchasing toys, appliances, furniture and sporting goods on Thanksgiving Day.
Look for TV bargains on Black Friday, computers on that Saturday and electronics and clothing on Cyber Monday. Wow. That’s a lot to keep track of. Maybe you should turn your grocery list into a grocery spreadsheet.
Popular holiday gift choices for 2024
The days of the Cabbage Patch Kid craze are long gone, but there will always be a demand for fun holiday items as gifts. Adobe has looked into its analytics-based crystal ball and predicted what will be popular in 2024. Lego sets will continue to be popular commodities. Also look for the Bluey Ultimate Lights and Sounds Playhouse, Fisher-Price Little People, slime kits, and MGA’s Miniverse collectibles to be popular purchases. Check out CNET’s picks for the best toys for kids.
Gamers will keep an eye on Madden NFL 25 and NBA 2k25 on the sports side, while the latest Diablo and Call of Duty games will please action fans. Naturally, the latest phones from Apple and Google in various flavors of iPhone 16 and Pixel 9 should be top sellers.
If Adobe’s prediction comes true, it will be a great holiday season for retail. With some smart shopping, you can join the party without burning your wallet.
