Thinking and Dunking Your Way to Success? NFL QBs Are Using Short, Quick Passes at Record Rate

Sean McDermott was talking strategy and sports psychology with caddie Ted Scott this past summer when Scott explained how his boss, PGA star Scottie Scheffler, adopted the mentality of just trying to hit singles on the course. “Scottie Singles” has now won two majors, including this year’s Masters, and has been the No. 1 player in the world for more than two years.

The strategy resonated so much with the Buffalo Bills head coach that he told the story to his star quarterback, Josh Allen, an avid golfer. Allen immediately saw the connection.

Allen, like many quarterbacks around the league, has been forced to adapt to the NFL’s changing defensive schemes. It wasn’t long ago that Allen was Buffalo’s power hitter, ripping chunk plays out of the pocket on the seams and running routes to the outside. Now, he often looks to two deep safeties positioned to make the big play, leaving him content to be a slap hitter: Singles up the middle on short, quick passes until the Bills reach the red zone.

“It’s the realization that when I take risks, they’re calculated and the reward is more than worth it,” Allen said. The Athletics“I haven’t thrown the ball downfield that often.”

He is not alone.

It’s only been two weeks, but according to TruMedia data, 31 percent of Allen’s targets have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, well above the league’s rapidly rising average.

More than 24 percent of the league’s throws this year have been at or behind the line of scrimmage, while quarterbacks are averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt. That’s the highest percentage, and the fewest air yards, in the first two weeks since TruMedia began tracking such data in 2006.

The trickle-down effect is a decline in passing numbers across the league. The only quarterback to throw for at least 250 yards in each of the first two games this season? Gardner Minshew of the Las Vegas Raiders.

Some of the biggest names in the game — and their arms — have been held in check by stingy defenses willing to give up the underside to protect the over-the-top. It’s forced quarterbacks like Allen to remain patient.

“When we get in the red zone, we’re going to find more ways to get exotic and score because it’s a lot harder there,” Allen said. “But we’re not going to do anything to put the ball in jeopardy until then.”

4th down? Make that a touchdown.

Josh Allen finds James Cook for 6️⃣#BUFvsMIA on Prime Video
Also available to stream on #NFLPlus photo.twitter.com/gzIF5sAUaG

— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2024

Allen’s percentage of throws on or behind the line has doubled from 2021, when he was at 15 percent through two games. That was the year he and Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs combined for one of the most explosive playoff games in history: 707 passing yards and 78 points. It’s the game that may have broken the league.

Almost immediately, defenses returned to two high safety looks the following season. It not only successfully slowed down scoring, but also slowed down ball movement.

Mahomes connected on a 44-yard touchdown pass with Rashee Rice in Kansas City’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but otherwise felt like he missed other opportunities in midfield.

“Teams just let you drive all over the field … and try not to let you score in the red zone,” he said. “But there are opportunities and you have to perform at a higher level. There aren’t as many as I’ve had before.”

Mahomes has completed 38 percent of his passes to targets on or behind the line of scrimmage. That’s the third-highest percentage for a quarterback this year and his highest percentage through the first two weeks of any season. If it holds up, it would easily be the highest percentage of his career. Last year, 26 percent of Mahomes’ pass targets were on or behind the line of scrimmage.

Source: TruMedia

Playing two high safeties has been around for generations, but has waned in popularity. More recently, teams have tried to emulate Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” defense with solid outside cornerbacks, a single-post safety with range, and an aggressive front seven.

There are still some who play that way, but it exposes too many defenses to deep shots and big plays. In response, some teams have favored split safeties with a zone defense that leaves the bottom open but protects against chunk plays. It forces offenses to operate within a 5- to 10-yard box.

It could also explain why safeties were so devalued in free agency last winter. Safeties lost more than $100 million in shed salary during the offseason, according to Over The Cap. Great ball skills from the safety position aren’t as valuable as they once were.

“You’ve got to be patient,” Bills veteran backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky said. “Every quarterback is like a gunfighter. You want to throw the ball deep. Everyone loves the long ball, but defenses really focus on that. The only thing that can get a defender and a coordinator in trouble is the ball getting thrown over your head. So let the ball get under there and make tackles.”

Source: TruMedia

The short, quick passing game is a natural evolution of college offenses that have used it for years. Many young NFL quarterbacks used this style in college and are comfortable with it.

It can also protect weaker offensive lines from edge rushers who have never been as fast and powerful in the league as they are now.

There was a time not so long ago when mobile quarterbacks favored run-pass option plays that allowed the quarterback to decide what to do based on the scheme. But that came with the risk of an illegal man downfield penalty. By throwing the ball quickly past the line of scrimmage, the ball gets into the hands of the playmakers while the line and other receivers can immediately begin blocking.

“As teams get smaller and faster on defense, there’s less opportunity downfield,” Allen said. “Meanwhile, these D-ends and D-tackles are getting more physical and weirder. The time to throw is probably shorter. That’s without knowing the stats, but when I watch games, the time from snap to pressure is probably the shortest it’s ever been.”

Source: TruMedia

Allen is right — sort of. The pressure is actually lower than last year at this point, but the two-week sack rate is the highest since TruMedia started tracking the data in 2006.

A simple explanation could be that quarterbacks can get rid of the ball faster thanks to shorter routes. However, on plays that require more depth in their routes, edge rushers and blitzers are more likely to score the ball.

“What we’re seeing now is off the jet motion, you’re seeing real route concepts. That didn’t exist before,” said Browns safety Rodney McLeod, who is in his 13th season. “In the beginning, it was just, ‘This guy is going to the flat,’ and he was used to influence the communication, to move the defender’s eyes. Now it’s, ‘OK, we’re going to get him involved in the route concept.’ That’s an extra layer. You see that with the (Kyle) Shanahan tree. Shanahan, (Sean) McVay, (Matt) LaFleur. It works when you have guys like Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel and those guys who are fast.”

Interestingly, Shanahan’s quarterback has made the least percentage of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage this year. Brock Purdy has made it just 11 percent of the time, tied with Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts.

Source: TruMedia

Nowadays they are the exception, not the norm.

“It’s just the way the league plays out,” Trubisky said. “As a quarterback and offense, you just have to game plan for that and take what the defense gives you. If that means short completions, that’s what you have to do.”

— The AthleticsNate Taylor and Dianna Russini contributed to this report

(Top image: Meech Robinson/The Athletic; Photos: Megan Briggs/Getty Images; Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)