A new bipartisan poll in Wisconsin After the June 27 presidential debate, former President Donald J. Trump holds a five-percentage-point lead over President Biden in the swing state, 50 percent to 45 percent. Mr. Biden trailed by a similar margin — six percentage points — in a vote of third-party candidates, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. holding 9 percent in the state.
Biden trails far behind Sen. Tammy Baldwin, the incumbent Democrat, who has the support of 50 percent of likely voters in her race against her Republican challenger, Eric Hovde.
The poll, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research on behalf of AARP, found Biden trailing Trump even further, by seven percentage points, among voters in the state who are 50 and older.
Mr. Biden’s weakness among younger voters was clear in the poll. He is neck and neck with Mr. Trump among voters under 50, losing just one percentage point, while Ms. Baldwin wins the group by 14 percentage points.
Much of Mr. Trump’s strength in the state, the new poll finds, comes from consolidating Republican support: Mr. Trump wins 93 percent of Republicans in a multi-candidate field, while Mr. Biden wins 86 percent of Democrats in such a field. Ten percent of Wisconsin Democrats say they plan to support a third-party candidate.
Views on Trump’s time in office also help the former president’s candidacy. Just over half of Wisconsin voters strongly approve of Trump’s time in office, compared to 39 percent who strongly approve of Biden’s job.
The poll shows that nearly every demographic group thinks Mr. Trump won last month’s debate. Swing voters over 50, a key focus of the poll, thought Mr. Trump won the debate by a wide margin.
