Trump's 'Al Capone' strategy carries risks in November

Two days after his victory in the New Hampshire primary, Donald Trump was back in court today and testified in the defamation case brought against him in New York by E. Jean Carroll, the writer who accused him of raping her while clothed for a department store. room in the 1990s.

“I wanted to defend myself, my family and, quite frankly, the presidency,” Trump said in his less than four-minute appearance on the stand. He was responding to a question about whether he had intended to harm his accuser with his defamatory statements denying her allegations, despite being found liable in the civil suit for sexually abusing her.

And even though the judge told the jury to ignore these comments, Trump got his message across.

It's a pattern Trump has stuck to for months: Rather than downplaying his many legal troubles, he has made them center stage, often boasting (apparently wrongly) that he has been indicted more times than Al Capone.

He highlights his courtroom troubles in his stump speeches, portraying them as an attempt by Democrats who fear they cannot defeat him at the ballot box to weaponize the justice system against him. Trump has cast himself as the victim of a witch hunt and highlighted his four criminal charges in fundraising emails. He enjoys the media coverage of his motorcade rushing to various courthouses. And his confrontational performances before judges and juries are designed for maximum attention.

So far, the strategy appears to be working and is helping to sway Republican voters in Iowa and New Hampshire.

But as he tries to shift into general election mode, it is far less clear that putting his legal obligations at the center of his campaign will be an effective way to build the broader coalition he needs to win in November.

Early warnings

The risks are clearly visible in the data points from the first two Republican elections.

Nearly half of those who voted in New Hampshire's Republican primary said in a CNN exit poll that they would not consider Trump fit to be president again if he were convicted of a crime. In Iowa, about a third of Republicans who showed up at the caucuses said Trump would be unfit if convicted, according to an Edison Research poll.

In a New York Times/Siena College poll last month, nearly a quarter of Trump's supporters said he should not be the Republican Party's nominee if found guilty of a crime, a scale of potential defections that is decisive could be in a close race.

Privately, some of Trump's advisers acknowledge that it is not fundamentally good for him to attend his civil trials. But they say he sees himself as his own best communicator and defender. He wants to know that he has done everything he can to argue his case in and out of court.

Trump repeatedly went from the campaign trail to the courtroom, even leading up to Iowa and New Hampshire. He first traveled to attend closing arguments in the New York Attorney General's civil fraud case against him and his company.

Last week, after the victory in Iowa, he flew back to New York to attend jury selection in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case. He also attended her testimony, sat next to his lawyers and tested the federal judge's patience by speaking audibly critically about the case in front of the jury. He returned today determined to defend himself with his own words.

“This isn't America,” he said, raising his voice loud enough for the courtroom audience to hear from across the quiet room as he left after his testimony.

Both trials he attended in New York are civil cases and therefore do not require Trump to be present, unlike the four criminal cases, in which he will have to be in court for a long time. Trump has lumped things together into a gigantic, undifferentiated mass that he insists without evidence is the work of President Biden. (It's worth noting that the origins of the New York civil fraud case date back to the middle of Trump's presidency.)

Out of court

Taunting E. Jean Carroll, which he has done repeatedly on social media in recent weeks, does not seem like an obvious way to gain more influence with independent voters who are wary of the clouds of dust that follow Trump everywhere, or to to achieve more. support from suburban women, another group he struggles with.

That includes his election denial, which he has discussed continually, to the chagrin of some of his advisers, even as he faces a federal trial on charges that he illegally tried to overturn his 2020 election loss. He delved into 'cheating' again. in the election during his scorched earth victory speech Tuesday night in New Hampshire.

Trump has repeatedly upended political expectations, and he has benefited from the fact that voters do not view him through a conventional political lens. But at his own behest, Trump is making accusations against himself that would undoubtedly have sunk any other candidate. Whether he can continue to make them positive will be one of the big questions of the approaching election season.

Your questions

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Why is there no date for the start of the RICO process in Georgia? – Theodore Kazmar, San Diego, California

Alan: That's not entirely clear. The Fulton County district attorney has proposed starting the racketeering trial in August. But Judge McAfee has not yet set a date. Pretrial motions are still being filed and the judge may want to complete that process before choosing a trial date. The proceedings were also complicated by allegations from one of Trump's co-defendants of ethics violations by the district attorney, Fani T. Willis, raising questions about her relationship with a lawyer she hired to oversee the prosecution.

How delaying trials for Trump could pay off

Trump faces four criminal trials this year, but delays are already underway. Chances are no more than one or two will end up before the election — it could take a few months or more, and they are unlikely to happen simultaneously because suspects typically have to attend the criminal trial in person.

And delays are a crucial part of Trump's strategy to avoid a jury before November. Here's how the planning might come together.