A shift in Russian tactics is intensifying the air war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has been largely fought on the ground over the past two years, with troops often engaged in back-and-forth combat with heavy artillery and drone support. These countries’ air forces have played second fiddle to Ukraine’s limited fleet of aircraft and Russia’s inability to achieve the air supremacy it once expected.
But like the Russian army continues attacks in the eastthe air force has taken on a greater role. Military analysts say Russia has increasingly deployed fighter jets near the front lines to drop powerful guided bombs on Ukrainian positions to clear a path forward for the infantry. This tactic is mainly used in Avdiivka, the strategic one eastern city captured by Russian forces last monthhas produced good results, experts say.
It has also brought risks.
“It is a costly but very effective tool that Russia is now using in the war,” said Serhiy Hrabskyi, a retired colonel in the Ukrainian army. “It is dangerous for them to send their fighter jets” close to the front line, he added, but it can “effectively influence the Ukrainian positions.”
The Ukrainian Army said last week it had shot down seven Su-34 fighter jets, almost all of them operating in the east, just a few days after downing an A-50 long-range radar reconnaissance plane. According to Ukrainian officials, it was part of a series of successful attacks on the Russian air force, with Ukraine claiming to have shot down 15 aircraft in as many days.
The majority of the shootings could not be independently verified.
Oryx, one military analysis site that losses count based on visual evidence, and Russian military bloggers confirmed the loss of two Su-35 fighter jets. The British military intelligence services confirmed the destruction of the A-50 aircraft.
Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow for air power and technology at the Royal United Services Institute in London, or RUSI, warned that “inflated kill claims are a systemic feature of air warfare.”
But he added that Ukraine “has certainly carried out an increasing number of ambush-style engagements in recent months” using air defense systems and has achieved “notable successes.”
After the invasion in February 2022, Ukraine managed to prevent Russia from controlling its airspace dogfight and the skillful use of anti-aircraft missiles. After only a month and heavy losses among its fighters, Russia stopped flying its planes outside the front lines. RUSI said in a report, focusing instead on launching barrages of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles from afar.
But that left Russia “unable to effectively deploy the potentially heavy and efficient air firepower” of its fighter-bombers to attack Ukrainian frontline positions, the report said.
This started to change early last year Russia started using glide bombs, guided munitions that are dropped from an aircraft and can fly long distances to the front lines, reducing the risk to aircraft from anti-aircraft missiles. With hundreds of kilos of explosives on board, the glide bombs can smash through the underground bunkers that protect soldiers at the front.
“These bombs completely destroy every position,” said Egor Sugar, a Ukrainian soldier who fought in Avdiivka. wrote on social media. “All buildings and structures simply turn into a pit if only one arrives.”
Ukrainian officials And military analysts said Russian aviation had played a key role in the capture of Avdiivka, a role that required Russian fighter jets to “fly closer to the front line” to maximize the effect of the glide bombs. And that exposed them to the risk of being shot down by Ukrainian air defenses.
At the end of December the The Ukrainian military said it had destroyed three Su-34 jets near the Russian-controlled eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the south, where Ukrainian forces have secured small positions. Then came the shootings in the east.
It remains unclear which air defense systems Ukraine has deployed. But some military officials and analysts have hinted at the use of American-made Patriot systems, America’s most advanced ground-based air defense system.
Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the Russian losses were likely the result of “a relationship between the Russian aircraft that have been compromised,” according to the Ukrainian intelligence collection about the Russian planes. movements of Russian aircraft and the deployment of air defense systems ‘to eliminate them’.
The Institute for the Study of Wara Washington-based think tank, said: “Russian forces appeared to tolerate an increased number of aviation losses in recent weeks to carry out hover bomb attacks in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.”
One of Ukraine’s biggest successes in the air battle was the destruction last week of one of Russia’s A-50 radar planes – the second this year – which are crucial in coordinating aerial bombardment of Ukrainian positions on the front. “If we take out their eyes and disable their targeting ability, that’s a pretty good victory,” Mr. Karako said.
British military intelligence said Russia had seven other A-50s but that it had “most likely grounded the fleet to fly” in support of its military operations to prevent further losses, reducing the “situational awareness of the aircrews.” ”
The Ukrainian Air Force said that Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine had decreased significantly on Saturday evening.
It is unclear to what extent Russia can sustain these losses in the long term. RUSI analysts said this month that Russian aircrew losses amounted to almost 160 personnel, which they described as “a serious loss of capability.”
This was reported by the Russian state news agency Tass said Thursday that state defense conglomerate Rostec would resume production of the A-50 “because it is needed by the Russian armed forces.”
Mr. Hrabskyi, the retired colonel, compared Russia’s costly strategy in the air to its tactics on the ground, where the country has sent wave after wave of troops in bloody raids to capture cities regardless of the human cost. “The Russians don’t care,” he said. “If they receive an order, they will use all available options and all available weapon systems to attack.”