US push to prevent broader war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

The United States is in the midst of an intense diplomatic effort to prevent a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, as the risk grows that either side could launch a broader regional struggle.

In recent days, U.S. officials have been pressing their Israeli counterparts and sending messages to Hezbollah leaders to try to prevent a broader regional conflict that they fear could involve both Iran and the United States.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met with several Biden administration officials in Washington this week largely to discuss escalating tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. That visit followed a visit last week by Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, and his minister of strategic affairs, Ron Dermer.

Also last week, a senior White House official, Amos Hochstein, who has taken on an informal diplomatic role as a mediator between the two sides, Israel and Lebanon, visited. Mr. Hochstein warned Iranian-backed Hezbollah that the United States would not be able to contain Israel if it committed to all-out war with the militia group.

Archrivals for decades, Israel and Hezbollah have regularly exchanged fire along Israel’s northern border. After Hamas-led attacks on October 7 prompted a devastating Israeli assault in Gaza, Hezbollah began firing into Israel, primarily at Israeli military targets in northern Israel, to show solidarity with Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. Fighting has intensified in recent weeks, and Israel’s reduced combat operations in Gaza, where it has greatly weakened Hamas, have freed up more of its forces for a possible offensive in the north.

The nightmare scenario for US officials would be an escalation in which Iran and Israel exchange direct blows for a second time. In a subsequent round, the United States might not be able to control the escalating fighting, as was the case in April.

For now, U.S. officials believe that both Israel and Hezbollah would prefer to reach a diplomatic solution.

During his visit to Washington, Mr. Gallant told officials in the Biden administration that Israel did not want a full-scale war with Hezbollah but that it was prepared to hit the group hard if it were provoked much further.

Among the officials who met with Mr. Gallant were Mr. Hochstein, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and the director of the CIA, William J. Burns.

“The American priority is de-escalation,” said David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the Trump administration. “Neither side wants war.”

Hezbollah was founded with Iranian help to combat the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon after Israel invaded the country in 1982. Hezbollah is a much more powerful force than Hamas and has amassed thousands of rockets capable of destroying Israeli cities.

US intelligence agencies believe Hezbollah plans to show support for Hamas by attacking across the border, but have tried not to give Israel an excuse to launch a cross-border raid.

US officials believe the Israeli government is divided over the wisdom of opening a larger front in the north. Some Israeli officials, including Mr. Gallant, argued after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks that Israel should have responded by trying to destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Mr. Gallant’s position has since changed, U.S. officials said. He now says opening a new front would be unwise, officials said.

But US officials and analysts say the risk of the war spreading remains dangerously high.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing mounting political pressure to restore security in northern Israel, where some 60,000 residents have been evacuated. Many hope to return to the area before the new school year begins in September, but most say they will not feel safe going back as long as Hezbollah attacks continue.

The risk is further increased because the United States, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran are unsure of each other’s true intentions.

“There is an opportunity to pull this latest escalation and expansion of the conflict back from the brink,” warned Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. “But there are four actors engaged in a dangerous game of chicken, and the potential for miscalculation is high.”

“Many in Washington and elsewhere have underestimated the risk appetite of the current Iranian leadership,” she added.

U.S. officials do not have direct contact with Hezbollah because the United States considers it a terrorist group. Mr. Hochstein delivers his messages to leaders through Shia Lebanese politicians informally linked to the group.

“He delivered a very strong message, which is that if you think we can control what they do or don’t do, you’re wrong,” said Ed Gabriel, chairman of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit that promotes democracy in Lebanon and US-Lebanon ties. “You have to understand that America does not have the power to stop Israel.”

Mr. Gabriel, a former U.S. ambassador to Morocco, said he had direct knowledge of the communication. A U.S. official confirmed that Mr. Hochstein had delivered the message.

In addition to urging both sides to show restraint, Mr. Hochstein has also tried to convince Hezbollah to withdraw its forces further from the Israeli border, as required by a United Nations Security Council resolution passed after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

On Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu said in a television interview that Israel demanded “the physical distance of Hezbollah” from the border to remove the threat from the armed group.

“I hope we are not forced to do this militarily, but if we are, we are up to the task,” he said.

A larger clash between Israel and Lebanon could be devastating for both sides. Israel caused so much damage to Lebanon in 2006 that the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said he would not have carried out the operation that launched the war if he had known the damage that would result. But Israel would also emerge covered in blood. Hezbollah claims it can launch 3,000 rockets a day, a barrage that has the potential to overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.

And even if Iran does not become directly involved, other allies of Iran, including Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthi militants in Yemen, could increase their attacks on Israel and American interests.

Analysts and officials say a halt to fighting in Gaza would be the surest way to defuse friction between Israel and Hezbollah. But a recent plan to stop the fighting, endorsed by Mr Biden and the Security Council, is in doubt after additional demands from Hamas and ambiguous statements from Mr Netanyahu.

Mr. Hanegbi, Israel’s national security adviser, said Mr. Hochstein was optimistic that Israel’s plan to move to lower-intensity fighting in Gaza after ending its offensive in Rafah could open a diplomatic window for a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

“He believes that this will provide Hezbollah with a ladder to descend from its daily solidarity with the struggle in Gaza,” Mr. Hanegbi said Tuesday during a discussion at Reichman University in Herzliya. “And that means it will be possible to talk about a settlement in the north.”

A growing concern for U.S. officials is the well-being of American diplomats and citizens in the Lebanese capital Beirut.

On Thursday, the State Department issued another advisory warning Americans not to travel to Lebanon and stressing that the Lebanese government “cannot guarantee the protection of American citizens from sudden outbreaks of violence and armed conflict.”