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When NATO leaders gather in Washington starting Tuesday, they will celebrate the strength of their alliance on its 75th anniversary, while facing great uncertainty about its future.
Russian aggression against Ukraine has given NATO, which was founded after World War II to defend Europe from the Soviet Union, a new sense of purpose in recent years. But the alliance also faces serious threats, including from right-wing skeptics rising to power in countries like Germany and France.
And the possible return to the White House of Donald J. Trump, who has ridiculed NATO and even considered pulling the United States out of the alliance, has caused great concern among members.
Here’s what to watch for during the three-day NATO meetings in Washington this week.
Keeping an eye on Putin
Perhaps the most important goal of the summit is to send a signal of unity and strength to Moscow.
Officials say Russian President Vladimir Putin is counting on NATO efforts to counter his aggression to wane, potentially allowing him to seize more of Ukraine and even turn his attention to other countries.
Therefore, a central theme of the summit will be to demonstrate not only the long-term commitment to Ukraine, but also the endurance of NATO itself.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said last week that the “main purpose” of the summit would be to demonstrate the value of spending on Europe’s collective defense. He noted that security deals recently struck between dozens of NATO members and Ukraine would help “tell Vladimir Putin he cannot delay Ukraine, he cannot delay all of Ukraine’s partners.”
NATO leaders, however, remain cautious about granting Ukraine membership in the alliance, something Kiev was first promised in 2008. Most member states say this is impossible while Ukraine and Russia are at war.
One of the uncertainties this week is the possibility that Putin will pull a stunt to spoil the party.
“Senior Biden administration officials are concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin has more surprises in store for them regarding Ukraine that will disrupt and overshadow the 75th anniversary NATO summit in Washington,” said Frederick Kempe, president of the Atlantic Council. wrote last month.
Russian sabotage
Russian military intelligence began a covert sabotage campaign across Europe this year, setting fires to warehouses and other sites linked to supplies to Ukraine, according to U.S. and allied officials.
Most of the attacks had the potential to slow the flow of supplies to Ukraine, but some were just plain weird. One target was an Ikea in Lithuania.
NATO takes the attacks seriously, issuing warnings and deploying senior US intelligence officials to brief ambassadors.
As Ukraine has used a flurry of new weapons to attack Russia and Russian military targets in occupied Crimea, the Kremlin has stepped up its threats. After an attack on Crimea with a U.S.-supplied ATACMS missile, the Kremlin warned that the deaths of Russians “must have consequences.”
In response, the US military raised the alert level at bases across Europe.
A big question for NATO leaders is whether Mr. Putin is ready to escalate the war beyond Ukraine’s borders. Western intelligence agencies don’t think so. But the alliance is likely to warn Mr. Putin that it will respond if he continues or steps up covert attacks on Europe.
Ukrainian weapons wishlist
At the top of Ukraine’s wish list are two familiar requests: more air defenses and more surface-to-air missiles.
The Biden administration announced a $2.3 billion military aid package for Ukraine last week. About $150 million of that munitions, including air defense interceptors, artillery and mortar rounds, and anti-tank weapons, will be pulled from the Pentagon’s stockpile and sent immediately to Ukraine.
The Pentagon will use the remainder to buy $2.2 billion worth of Patriot and other air defense missiles from defense contractors, which will be delivered to Ukraine in the coming months. The Biden administration said last month that it plans to speed up the delivery of these Patriot interceptors to Ukraine by delaying certain arms shipments to other countries.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he urgently needs at least seven Patriot batteries. President Biden has promised that five Western air defense systems will be delivered to Ukraine soon.
In addition to manpower, Ukraine’s primary need is air defense, both at the front and to defend critical infrastructure, including the country’s electricity grid.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Russia and Eurasia Program, recently visited the front and said Ukraine’s air defenses are struggling to cope with the flood of Russian drones flying behind the front lines in Ukraine.
Ukraine is also facing large numbers of Russian glide bomb attacks, which are becoming increasingly accurate, he said.
“The growing number of Russian drones capable of flying far behind Ukraine’s front lines is one of the biggest issues,” Koffman said. “The most pressing issue, however, is the shortage of air defense systems to defend infrastructure, and the need to address shortages in Ukraine’s power grid before winter.”
Patriots and HAWKs
Ukraine’s urgent need for air defense weapons was underscored Monday by a wave of Russian missile attacks that hit 20 cities and damaged a children’s hospital in Kiev.
One of the topics of discussion at the summit is how many countries can deploy anti-aircraft guns to protect the airspace over Ukraine.
The United States is sending more missiles for its most advanced system, the Patriot. It will also deliver a long-defunct American system from the Pentagon, called HAWK, for Homing All the Way Killer, which is still in service with several allied countries.
“The HAWK system was developed in the 1950s by Raytheon and was first fielded by the military in 1959,” Marc Romanych, a retired U.S. Army air defense officer, said in an interview. “The United States has never fired a HAWK missile at an enemy target, but other militaries have done so and have been quite successful.”
Mr. Romanych commanded a HAWK unit during active service and wrote a book about the weapon until 2022.
The HAWK, he said, is designed to shoot down low-flying Soviet fighter jets that travel at twice the speed of sound. It could also shoot down much slower drones that Russia is using in Ukraine.
According to the Missile Defense Project of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, the missiles have a range of about 45 kilometers.
In October 2022, Spain announced that it four HAWK launchers deliver to Ukraine. Less than a month later, the Pentagon said it provided the rockets for those launchers and would start refurbishing more rockets remove from stock for later shipment.
The Pentagon said it would send two more HAWK launchers to Ukraine in February 2023along with more launchers and rockets for them in June that year. In the past month alone, the Pentagon announced two additional deliveries of HAWK missiles.
At the same time, the US military announced a major new purchase of the most advanced Patriot missiles, many of which have been sent to Ukraine.
Which Zelensky?
Last year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted angry messages on social media before flying to the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. He was angry that allies were talking about an invitation to Ukraine instead of a timetable for membership.
The message said that the lack of a timetable would embolden Russia “to continue his terror.” At the time, White House officials grumbled that Zelensky came across as ungrateful, a bad impression given the billions of dollars the West had spent helping him defend the country.
Diplomats now acknowledge that NATO has offered Mr. Zelensky a “word salad” instead of a stronger statement on alliance membership. So this time, the United States and other countries are pushing for a clear statement on Ukraine’s future membership.
There has also been an intense diplomatic push to set Mr. Zelensky’s expectations for the summit. During visits to Kiev, NATO allies have reinforced their commitment to supplying Ukraine with more weapons, improving training and providing security guarantees. The message is that while membership of the alliance will come, in the meantime there is no higher priority for NATO than supporting Kiev.
Will this diplomatic whirlwind succeed in bringing out Mr. Zelensky’s grateful version? Diplomats admit they can’t know. Mr. Zelensky is one of the world’s best communicators, and he alone will determine what message he delivers to allies in Washington this week.
The 2024 US Elections
Uncertainty over whether Biden will remain the Democratic presidential nominee, and the possibility of Donald J. Trump returning to the White House, hangs like a dark cloud over the top.
Trump has called NATO “obsolete” and threatened to leave the alliance, though some European officials say privately they believe he will not follow through on those threats if elected. He has long complained that NATO members are not spending enough on their collective defense, one reason the alliance has announced increased spending by its members in recent years.
Trump has also promised that if elected, he will negotiate a quick peace between Russia and Ukraine, though he has provided few details of his plan. Such negotiations would likely force Ukraine to give up territory and its ambitions to join NATO.
But the spotlight at the summit will be on Mr. Biden, who will be closely watched for new signs that his health or mental acuity might be declining. Should Mr. Biden not remain on the Democratic ticket, it is unlikely that any other Democratic candidate would call for major changes to NATO or U.S. support for Ukraine.
