What we learned about the CFP in Week 11: Mizzou’s ‘Playoff Chase’? ACC with one bid? Don’t mean anything

The 12-team College Football Playoff has made it difficult to determine the size of the fall’s biggest games. For decades, the outcome of a regular-season game could feel final. Even if it wasn’t quite that way, it could be pretty close.

That is no longer the case.

After the number of undefeated teams dwindled to four in Week 11, we learned that using the phrase “If they win” is dangerous and that the SEC appears to be heading for a massive stalemate.

Beautiful 7

After Missouri beat Oklahoma 30-23 in a crazy game that featured five fourth-quarter touchdowns (four in the final 3:18), Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz proclaimed his team still alive in the Playoff race.

Coach Drinkwitz says tonight’s win was big because it keeps Mizzou in the playoff hunt pic.twitter.com/AG0nL3bW6K

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) November 10, 2024

‘That’s right. I said it. Playoff hunt,” Drinkwitz said.

Real?

Well, put it this way: Mizzou is now one of seven SEC teams that could finish the regular season 10-2, along with – in alphabetical order – Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M . Those six all landed in the top 16 of the CFP selection committee last week.

There are only two SEC games left that match up with one of these seven teams. Next week, Georgia will look to bounce back from its second loss of the season against Tennessee in Athens. Texas goes to Texas A&M on Thanksgiving weekend.

Georgia had a chance to vote Ole Miss off the island, but Rebels coach Lane Kiffin ultimately broke through with a top-five win and stayed alive. Now the Bulldogs, preseason No. 1 and the favorites to win the national championship, are in danger of missing out on a 12-team bracket.

Unthinkable.

The Crimson Tide rolled past LSU 42-13 to unofficially, but undeniably, eliminate the Tigers from Playoff contention. Tennessee and the winner of Texas-Texas A&M determine their path to the SEC title game, which is better than the alternative, but control feels like an illusion this season.

As for Mizzou and Drinkwitz, no one should apologize for the 7-2 win, especially for a program that doesn’t regularly post double-digit wins. The reality is that Missouri, which was ranked 25th by the selection committee last week, is clearly seventh in the SEC Playoff rankings.

The Athletics‘s projection model gives Missouri a 0.3 percent chance of making the Playoff. So you’re saying there’s a chance?

Hurricane warning

No. 4 Miami had been tempting fate for much of the past month and a half, hoping that quarterback Cam Ward would pull it out of precarious situations. Four times in the previous five games the Hurricanes fell behind, but Ward and their high-powered offense saved them and kept them undefeated.

Ward ran out of magic in the second half against Georgia Tech, and now the Canes’ path to the Playoff has narrowed. SMU, ranked 13th in the committee’s initial rankings, had a productive week off. The Mustangs now sit alone atop the ACC standings.

Miami’s loss was the 10th this season by an AP top-10 team against an unranked team. That means the rankings at the time of the games mean Georgia Tech has two of those wins after starting the season by beating preseason No. 10 Florida State in Ireland. Yes, sometimes early season upsets are not what they seem.

Still, that list includes Kentucky over Ole Mis, Arkansas over Tennessee and, of course, Northern Illinois over Notre Dame. It nearly added Utah over No. 9 BYU later Saturday night.

It’s been a fun season.

Thanks to Pitt’s loss to Virginia, Miami is still in control of its ACC Championship hopes heading into an off week. The Canes close the season with games against Syracuse and Boston College, both very winnable. But so did Georgia Tech.

“We have a bye week with everything for us to play for,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal said.

The Yellow Jackets ran for 271 yards and held the ball for nearly 35 minutes. Two failed fourth-down conversions by Miami in Georgia Tech territory were essentially the difference in a 28-23 loss.

The bigger problem for Miami is that the prospect of getting into the Playoff just by reaching the ACC Championship Game has just been lost. Look at all those SEC teams potentially sitting there with two losses. Then take a look at the Big Ten, where the odds continue to rise that the four CFP candidates (Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Penn State) will all win at least 10 regular-season games.

If the Hurricanes reach the ACC title game, they will likely do so after beating just one ranked team (Louisville).

That measurement can be a bit deceptive and arbitrary. Is there that much difference between team No. 25 and team No. 30? Not really.

Still, the ACC moved closer to a one-bid league on Saturday.

GO DEEPER

2024 College Football Playoff Projections: Indiana gets up to a 92 percent chance to make the field

2024 BYU = 2022 TCU

BYU’s undefeated season appeared to be over when quarterback Jake Retzlaff was sacked near his goal line on a fourth down with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Cougars have avoided a few losses along the way at 9-0, but no escape was bigger than Saturday night’s win against rival Utah.

A holding penalty on the Utes ended what likely would have been a go-ahead sack, and the Cougars took their second chance, driving in the waning seconds to set up a game-winning field goal. The 11-point halftime deficit was the largest BYU has overcome since 2002 against Utah State.

“We won this match. Someone else stole it from us,” Utah athletics director Mark Harlan told reporters. “This was not fair to our team. I am disgusted by the professionalism of the officiating tonight.”

Utah Athletic Director Mark Harlan Post Game pic.twitter.com/eKjy4PpedU

— Elijah Grayson Murray (@elijahgmurray) November 10, 2024

Okay, then.

The Cougars remain alone in first place in the Big 12, just a game ahead of Colorado, which achieved its own come-from-behind victory on Saturday evening.

Indiana already has the best turnaround of the season, the perennial Big Ten doormat now competing for a conference title after going 3-9 last season. BYU isn’t quite that, but the Cougars went 5-7 in their first season in the Big 12 last year and were picked to finish at the bottom of the conference again.

Sound familiar?

TCU followed a similar path to the Playoff in 2022. These Cougars aren’t Hypnotoads, but they are definitely a vibration-based operation.

Big 12 spoiler

Kansas has had one of the most disappointing years in the country. It started the season in the rankings, losing its first five FBS games, none by more than 11 points.

The Jayhawks have now won two of three, with only a two-point loss to Kansas State halting a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Jalon Daniels and company all but eliminated Iowa State from the CFP race with a 45-36 win Saturday.

Kansas can continue to play spoiler for the next two weeks. The Jayhawks visit BYU next week and then host Colorado.

Keeping BYU out of the Big 12 Championship Game at this point will leave the Cougars with at least two losses. Avoiding that won’t be as easy as it looked a few weeks ago.

BYU heads to Arizona State in two weeks. As good as Provo’s turnaround has been, Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham’s has been even better in Tempe. Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) is also still in the running for a spot in the Big 12 title game.

And BYU closes the regular season at home against Houston, which has won three of its last four.

Tested Hoosiers

It took ten plays, but finally someone made Indiana go to work deep in the fourth quarter.

Indiana is 10-0 for the first time after beating defending champion Michigan 20-15 in what was by far the Hoosiers’ worst offensive game of the season.

“I’m glad we won,” coach Curt Cignetti said. “I don’t like the way we played.”

10 games, 10 wins. pic.twitter.com/OU9Bi4I8Xi

— Indiana Football (@IndianaFootball) November 10, 2024

Considering Indiana improved to 11-62 all-time against Michigan, I’m pretty sure that sentence was never uttered by a Hoosiers coach after beating the Wolverines.

Indiana gets a week off before playing Ohio State. It appears the Hoosiers have built up enough credit to weather a loss to the Buckeyes and reach the Playoff, but the strength of the scheduling metric still hangs like an anchor around Indiana. The Wolverines are now 5-5.

(Photo: Ed Zurga/Getty Images)