Welcome to college football, where the entire conversation about a program can change in a week. There are no better examples than the scenes in Lexington, Ky., and South Bend, Ind., last Saturday, which set the stage for this week’s edition of overreaction or underreaction.
“There was an image about our team this week, but that was not the reality.” — South Carolina coach Shane Beamer
A week ago, Beamer’s seat seemed to be warming up after a lackluster 23-19 win over Old Dominion. Then, as 10-point underdogs on the road, the Gamecocks defeated Kentucky 31-6. Now, ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be in Columbia this week for the Gamecocks’ game against LSU, which after a tough two weeks, isn’t what many thought it would be at the start of the season. South Carolina will once again be the underdog, but with a rejuvenated fan base, a confident team and a national spotlight, anything can happen. And the perception of South Carolina’s season could change drastically with another win. If that happens, the outrage of Week 1 will feel like a distant memory.
“We’ve been here before. Now it’s time to get it fixed.” – Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman
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Notre Dame has a lot of repair to do after a 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois as a nearly 30-point favorite. As Freeman pointed out, Notre Dame has become the norm in these situations: a narrow win over Toledo in 2021, losses to Marshall and a 3-9 Stanford in 2022 and, of course, last Saturday.
The conversation about Freeman’s time at Notre Dame is for another day. Right now, the question of overreaction or underreaction revolves around the rest of Ireland’s season: Did NIU’s loss sink Notre Dame’s season, or is there still hope?
Shane Beamer’s South Carolina Gamecocks are 2-0 after their win at Kentucky on Saturday. (Jordan Prather/Imagn Images)
On the overreaction side, you could argue that losing as a 30-point favorite at home to a MAC team is proof enough that Notre Dame isn’t a legitimate College Football Playoff contender. The underreaction side would argue that an 11-1 record, which many already saw for Notre Dame, is still in play, and that should be enough to get the Irish in. While that’s true, there’s far less confidence that this team can make it 10 straight, and some games on the schedule, like Florida State, seem far less resume-building than they did a few weeks ago.
Whichever side you’re on, you’re vindicated. And that’s the beauty of it. Here are five more things we overreact to, underreact to, and perfectly react to — all sides are equally needed in the discourse of this great sport.
We exaggerate on… tThe number of top teams that struggled on Saturday.
Notre Dame was the only highly ranked team to lose as a heavy favorite, but there were several close calls, including Penn State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, Kansas State, and Arizona. But let’s not panic … at least not yet. Alabama knows this situation firsthand. This time last year, South Florida pushed the Tide to the brink in a 17-3 Alabama win, only to have the Tide reel off 12 straight wins en route to the Playoff. Sometimes, early-season adversity isn’t the worst thing.
Penn State, after a big win over rival West Virginia, met Bowling Green with a bye week on the other hand, Arizona’s game against Northern Arizona is a precursor to a big game against Kansas State on Friday. Likewise, Alabama has a big game against Wisconsin this week. These teams may be who we thought they were, but they have fallen victim to the insidious trap.
LSU and Oregon are rightly getting more criticism after two straight underperformances, but it’s an equally fair question to ask why Boise State was a nearly 20-point underdog in the first place. This is a team that got a lot of playoff buzz in the preseason and has been playing at that level. LSU still feels like it’s reeling from its Week 1 game against USC, but a win in Columbia on Saturday to open the SEC standings at 1-0 could fix a few things.
We can give mulligans to the other teams that have been mentioned as an early season mistake, for now. We’ll look at it again in a few weeks.
We respond too little to… tthe fact that the best freshman in America is probably in Columbia, SC
Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, Georgia’s KJ Bolden, Alabama’s Ryan Williams and more have captured national attention early as freshmen contributors. But it’s time to start focusing on South Carolina edge Dylan Stewart. The former five-star prospect was all over the field against Kentucky, just as he was against Old Dominion. If there’s one play that cements his claim as the nation’s best freshman, it’s this: How many freshmen get triple-covered by SEC players and still make the play?
Dylan Stewart is a REAL FRESHMAN photo.twitter.com/ux8OcLmyDG
— UnnecRoughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 7, 2024
It’s only been two weeks, but Stewart’s 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and a barrage of quarterback pressures have made him one of the nation’s best edge defenders statistically. Next up: a matchup with LSU tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr., two likely first-round NFL draft picks. Saturday could be a launching pad.
We exaggerate on… anew debate on the supremacy of the conference.
In the biggest non-conference games of Week 2, Texas and Tennessee traveled: Texas to Michigan and Tennessee to a neutral site in Charlotte (against NC State), and they defeated their respective Big Ten and ACC opponents by a combined margin of 82-22. Those resounding victories moved the SEC’s record against Power 4 non-conference opponents this season to … 5-6.
Let’s see how the other conferences are doing after two weeks: ACC (5-5), Big Ten (4-4), Big 12 (5-5). Insert Spiderman pointing meme.
Games are still to be played and records will change, but fans who claim their conference is much better than the others or that another is overrated are just talking at this point. The reality is that this early season stretch has created real parity and competitiveness between the conferences. It’s not as fun as trolling, but that’s the way it is. But that can change.
What’s the best way to determine the best conference? Conference record against each other? Playoff bids? Bowl record? Number of draft picks? Whatever it is, it’s not going to be decided in Week 2.
We respond too little to… Kyle McCord and Syracuse.
Across the country, transfers are making an impact on their new teams, but perhaps none more so than what McCord did for Syracuse early in the season. Cast aside by Ohio State, McCord has been tremendous for the Orange the past two weeks: a 69.4 completion percentage, eight touchdown passes against just one interception and a win over ranked Georgia Tech this past weekend. There have also been strong defensive portal performers for Syracuse, including Fadil Diggs, but McCord’s impact has been immense.
Syracuse head coach Fran Brown on Kyle McCord:
“I should send Ryan Day a bottle of champagne for enabling us to get Kyle McCord.”
(thanks to @BarstoolTate) photo.twitter.com/gEGmHGLlD3
— On3 (@On3sports) September 1, 2024
Combined with the lackluster starts by Florida State and Clemson, there’s real optimism about Syracuse’s potential as a top-half ACC team this season: Getting to 5-0 before a road game against NC State on Oct. 12 is a real possibility. The first year of the Fran Brown era has generated good vibes in its first few weeks, thanks in large part to the arrival of McCord.
We respond perfectly to… tThere is much disdain for the targeting rule.
Finally, something we can agree on. We hate how the targeting rule is called and enforced. Alabama linebacker Justin Jefferson was the latest case study this past weekend: a classic tackle that “looked worse than it was” resulted in a penalty and his suspension for the first half against Wisconsin next week. Judge for yourself.
Shame on the @SEC referee team for calling out this textbook example tackle targeting and the @NCAA for allowing a perfect tackle like this to be taken away because of a completely wrong call and rule. And also taking away 3 quarters from a player who did absolutely nothing wrong.
THIS IS A… photo.twitter.com/m23Fiir46U
— Top-notch prospects (@FCProspects_) September 8, 2024
The spirit of the rule is fair and logical, but simplifying it to “crown on helmet” is far too broad. There has to be malicious intent, and where was that intent in Jefferson’s tackle? There are countless other examples of a defender making a bang-bang play and ending up with a penalty for making a play. At some point, players are forced to go low to avoid a penalty, which can lead to dangerous consequences.
This rule doesn’t need any further regulation to make it more complicated, but the targeting rule is broken and needs to be fixed. Unfortunately, that won’t be until next season.
(Top photo: Michael Clubb/USA Today)
