What You Need to Know as Israel and Hezbollah Tear Down New War

For months, there have been concerns that the war in Gaza could lead to a second conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, the well-armed militia loosely affiliated with Hamas and based just across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.

The two sides have repeatedly exchanged attacks since the Gaza war began in October, killing civilians and fighters in Lebanon and Israel, with most of the civilian casualties in Lebanon. The hostilities have also forced more than 150,000 people on both sides of the border to leave their homes for temporary shelters, putting pressure on the Israeli government to make the north of the country safe for residents by pushing Hezbollah back from the border region.

Below, read how Hezbollah is about to embark on a new battle, and why it can still be prevented.

What is Hezbollah?

Hezbollah has opposed Israel since the group’s inception. It was founded in the 1980s after Israel, responding to attacks, invaded and occupied southern Lebanon with the intention of eradicating the Palestine Liberation Organization, then based in the country.

But Israel soon faced a new enemy, one whose guerrillas quickly proved more effective in harassing the much better-equipped Israeli forces: Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim movement that had made driving Israel out of Lebanon its primary goal.

In 2000, Israel withdrew from Lebanon, making Hezbollah a hero to many Lebanese. In 2006, it fought Israel again, launching a military operation in its southern neighbor, which led to a fierce counterattack. In that war, Israel rained bombs on southern Lebanon and Beirut, the capital; the fighting killed more than 1,000 Lebanese.

Yet the Israeli military failed to overwhelm Hezbollah in the 34-day war, allowing the group and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to become stars in an Arab world accustomed to being defeated by Israel.

Hezbollah soon allied with Iran and the two became close partners.

Although the group retains a large and loyal following among Shiite Muslims because of the social benefits and political power it offers them, and because of the authoritarian tactics it uses to crush any dissent, many Lebanese see the group as an obstacle to progress that threatens to drag the country into an unwanted war.

Hezbollah, considered a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries, has evolved from a fighting force into a dominant political organization that has gained significant influence in the Lebanese government.

Lebanon is currently in a political impasse, but without Hezbollah’s approval, few major changes can take place.

What would a bigger war mean for Lebanon?

Lebanon can hardly afford another conflict with Israel.

The country is reeling from years of economic crisis that has left countless Lebanese in poverty and a political crisis that has deprived citizens of many basic services. The strikes at the border have displaced some 100,000 Lebanese citizens, depriving many of their incomes and homes, and cost the country billions of dollars in lost tourism and agricultural revenue, Lebanese officials say.

Lebanon also faces less international support, with its former colonial power, France, distracted by domestic politics, said Emile Hokayem, a specialist in Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Other Arab states and Iran, which pumped money into Lebanon’s reconstruction after 2006, have been less willing or able to help.

“It was already difficult in 2006, when Lebanon’s economic situation and international position were much better,” Mr. Hokayem said. “The country is not able to deal with this conflict.”

Even some of Hezbollah’s traditionally loyal Shiite Muslim constituents in southern Lebanon are questioning the cost of the current fighting. As a result, analysts say, Mr. Nasrallah knows he must tread carefully. He has said Hezbollah does not want a broader conflict, while warning that his fighters are prepared for it — and that Israel will face serious consequences if it comes to that.

“If war is imposed, the resistance will fight without restrictions, rules or limits,” Mr. Nasrallah said in a speech two weeks ago.

A Hezbollah-Israel war could also escalate into a larger regional war that would dwarf the current fighting. Such a conflict could involve Iran, as well as the United States, which has worked to prevent further escalation.

Although nerves have been raised by the frequency and lethality of attacks from both sides, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran do not want a full-fledged war, analysts and U.S. officials say. Still, the only near-certain way to avoid war, they say, is to end the fighting in Gaza with a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, whose Oct. 7 attack sparked the war in the enclave.

How strong is Hezbollah?

Through propaganda videos and calibrated attacks, Hezbollah has repeatedly shown signs of a strengthened arsenal which analysts say is capable of inflicting heavy damage on Israeli cities. The troops are also battle-tested after years of fighting rebels in Syria, where Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters during that country’s civil war to support the government of President Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Iran and Hezbollah.

According to Middle East expert Hokayem, Iran-backed militias in Iraq could also join the fight if Israel attacks Lebanon.

Estimates vary as to how many missiles Hezbollah has and how advanced its systems are. According to the Central Intelligence Agency’s World Factbook, the group may have more than 150,000 missiles and rockets of various types and ranges. It also estimates the group has up to 45,000 fighters, though Mr. Nasrallah has claimed to have 100,000.

However, analysts and Israeli officials say Hezbollah’s arsenal is significantly more dangerous than Hamas’s because of its precision-guided missiles, which can hit critical Israeli infrastructure and military assets.

Hezbollah has also demonstrated exploding drones that can evade Israel’s Iron Dome, the detection and firing system designed to protect the country from incoming rockets and missiles. The group also appears to have anti-tank missiles that fly too fast and too low for Iron Dome to intercept.

Mr. Nasrallah warned in his speech two weeks ago that Hezbollah had so far used only a small portion of its weapons. If necessary, he said, Hezbollah could launch them at “a bank of targets” in precision strikes.

“The enemy knows to expect us on land, in the air and at sea,” he said.

Some in Israel are wary of exposing their country to such an arsenal. But others argue that Israel must act before Hezbollah becomes stronger.

“The dilemma the Israelis find themselves in is that Hezbollah appears to have reached a level of capability where it is probably not worth the Israelis’ while to start a larger conflict,” said Sam Heller, a Beirut-based analyst at Century International.

Euan Department contributed to the reporting.