Which 0-2 NFL teams should panic? Model predicts playoff chances for Ravens, Bengals and more
It’s officially that time of year: Your social media timeline is filled with posts about 0-2 starts and your team’s dwindling chances of making the playoffs.
For the uninitiated, the outlook is bleak. Since 2015, less than 11% of NFL teams made the play-offs after starting 0-2.
That number lacks context, however, because it includes a lot of terrible teams. For example, this year’s Carolina Panthers and New York Giants will soon be part of that statistic, and they didn’t have high expectations coming into the season.
So, we’re going to focus on the somewhat surprising 0-2 starts to see how dire the situation really is. Which of these teams should be panicking? How likely are they to make the playoffs at this point? Or should they look forward to next year’s NFL Draft? These are the questions I’ll attempt to answer using my NFL projection model.
GALLING DEEPER
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The Ravens’ playoff chances looked bleak after they lost by a hair to the Kansas City Chiefs. But after blowing a double-digit lead at home to the Las Vegas Raiders in the fourth quarter, the AFC’s runner-up saw their playoff chances plummet from 78% at the start of the season to 41%.
Last year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson, has been solid, but the team’s biggest problem right now is scoring chance efficiency. I define a scoring chance as any play inside the opponent’s 40-yard line because that’s when teams are in realistic range for points, whether it’s a field goal or a touchdown. Through two games, Jackson ranks 29th in EPA/dropback and 26th in dropback success rate on scoring chances among qualified quarterbacks, according to TruMedia. Last year, Jackson ranked 14th and 16th, respectively. We’re still talking about a small sample size, and considering the Ravens were a few plays away from going 2-0, I don’t think there’s any reason to panic.
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That said, I do have concerns about the defense. Through two weeks, the Ravens are a bottom-10 defense against the pass, including giving up the highest percentage of 10-plus-yard passing plays. Part of that is playing Patrick Mahomes and the visiting Chiefs, but that’s not the start you wanted after losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald and promoting Zach Orr.
Much like their aforementioned AFC North rival, the Bengals have seen a major drop in playoff chances following their 0-2 start to the season. Before the season, the Bengals were projected to make the playoffs 73% of the time. That number is now 44%.
Cincy fans need to RELAX.
This is what you guys do. Under Zach Taylor, you’re 1-11 in the first 2 weeks of the season.
And Joe Burrow looks much better. If he stays healthy…don’t panic!
New episode of Scoop City👇
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📺 photo.twitter.com/ZabNgs3qbe—Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) September 17, 2024
The biggest reason the Bengals’ playoff chances have dropped is their Week 1 home loss to the New England Patriots. That would be concerning, except that the Bengals always seem to struggle in Week 1. They also nearly pulled off an upset in Kansas City. So, am I worried about them? Not yet. They started the season without wide receiver Tee Higgins, and his return should improve quarterback Joe Burrow’s efficiency.
I’m not a big believer in the defense, despite the performance against Mahomes — the Bengals have his number, I think — but I haven’t seen anything to change my mind.
On the bright side for the Bengals, three of their next four opponents are the Washington Commanders, Panthers and Giants. A home game against the Ravens will have major playoff implications in Week 5, but the schedule works in their favor to get back on track fairly quickly after a poor start.
The Colts started the season with just a 26% chance of making the playoffs. After an 0-2 start, which included a humiliating loss to the Malik Willis-led Packers, the Colts now have just an 8% chance of making the playoffs.
Anthony Richardson has had a rough start to his sophomore season, completing just 49.1% of his passes. Some context is needed, given that he ranks third in percentage of attempts returned 20 yards, and the Colts had a handful of drops on Sunday, but no matter how you slice it, completing less than 50% of your passes isn’t going to cut it in the NFL.
That said, the offense isn’t even my biggest concern. It’s the defense.
After two weeks, the defense is giving up over five yards per carry on the ground, and that includes an entire game against a nonexistent passing offense. The injuries are starting to pile up on that side of the ball, too. My model currently predicts the Colts to have the fourth-worst defense, and that’s not a recipe for overcoming an 0-2 start.
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Where they can find hope is in their schedule. Things don’t look too bad over the next month. Home games against the Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers are certainly winnable, but they’ll need to split up road trips to Jacksonville and Tennessee at the very least to keep their heads above water. Then they’ll start a series of games against Miami, at Houston, at Minnesota, at Buffalo, at the New York Jets, at the Lions. Getting some wins over the next four weeks is vital.
The Rams couldn’t have started the season worse. Not only are they 0-2, but they’ve been decimated by injuries. Their scuffed roster and winless start have left them with just a 9% chance of making the playoffs after starting the season at 45%. There aren’t many teams in the NFL that could survive this level of injury on offense, let alone a team with a mediocre defense.
Frankly, it’s hard to predict the Rams because of the injuries and the guesswork on when players will return. A week 6 bye might do them some favors, but there aren’t many games on the schedule where the Rams are clear favorites. My model currently suggests the Rams’ most likely record is 6-11.
If you had asked me about the Jaguars in the first half of Week 1, I would have said I thought they had a chance to win the AFC South. Unfortunately, the Jaguars have been absolutely terrible on offense since halftime against the Dolphins. Their poor play has dropped their playoff chances from 40% to 19%.
Am I worried? Yes. The offense seems broken. I don’t know what it is, but when you look at the New Orleans Saints under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and the Minnesota Vikings with Sam Darnold, you wonder why the Jaguars haven’t been able to get more out of their offense with Trevor Lawrence. This is the second year in a row that the Jaguars’ offense has underperformed. The Jaguars have lost Lawrence’s last seven starts.
Either the coaching staff needs to be replaced or a quarterback change needs to be considered. I’m not ready to give up on Lawrence yet.
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Road trips to Buffalo and Houston in the next two weeks make an 0-4 start a real possibility, and the schedule doesn’t open up much before their Week 12 bye. The Jaguars can still salvage the season, but they’ll need to win one, if not both, of their next two games to stay alive. I wouldn’t bet on it.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Michael Owens/Getty Images)
