Who will win the presidential election? The latest polls of 2024 show where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump stand

Find out how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are really doing among voters with just hours until the polls close with DailyMail.com’s brilliant poll tracker.

Our interactive charts provide invaluable insight into how pollsters are predicting the outcome of the race before tonight’s results come in.

The polls are on a razor’s edge and the race is too close to call.

The winner will ultimately be determined in the seven swing states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.

The margins on any battlefield are razor-thin, and the next president can be determined by just a few thousand votes.

All data used in our analysis comes from Harris vs. Trump polls collected by DailyMail.com pollsters JL Partners and FiveThirtyEight.

NATIONAL VOTE INTENTION

DailyMail.com collects national polling data from FiveThirtyEight, which collects dozens of voting surveys conducted across the US every week. We only include head-to-head polls between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, which means other candidates such as Cornel West and Jill Stein are excluded. This provides a clear snapshot of national voting intention, or popular vote. Because of the way American elections work, the leader of this metric will not necessarily become president.

Individual studies are represented by dots on the graph. Weekly sliding averages – covering Monday through Sunday – are shown by lines. For the purposes of our chart, Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden for the week beginning July 22.

NATIONAL OPPORTUNITY TO WIN

Our probability graph differs from voting intent because it takes into account many factors that can skew that evening’s results.

JL Partners, a renowned pollster whose founders were involved in conducting research for the British Conservative government, runs models to assess who is likely to win the race in each state based on current polling. This, along with historical voting data, economic indicators and approval ratings, is combined by data scientists who then simulate the course of the election thousands of times to calculate the probability of Trump or Harris becoming president on November 5.

STATE BY STATE PREDICTED WINNERS

Using the same methodology as National Probability, DailyMail.com visualizes JL Partners’ forecast results by state. This shows the areas considered Republican or Democratic strongholds, as well as the states that could go either way overnight.

BATTLEGROUND IS LIKELY TO WIN

This graph shows the probability model, but for seven battleground states it will determine this year’s outcome. Between Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19) and Wisconsin (10), they have 93 Electoral College votes.

To see the latest polls in the swing states, read more HERE.