Who Will Win the WNBA Championship? Experts’ Bold Predictions as Play Resumes
A month without basketball has passed. Well, WNBA basketball anyway.
After a thrilling end to the Olympic basketball tournament in Paris, the American gold medalists are scattered across the country to their respective WNBA teams. The New York Liberty entered the All-Star/Olympic break with the league’s best record (21-4) and are hoping to claim the franchise’s first title. After a slow start, the Las Vegas Aces sit in fifth place at 16-8 but could very well complete the WNBA’s first three-peat since the 1997-2000 Houston Comets. Several other title contenders (the Connecticut Sun, Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm) sit between the two 2023 Finals contenders with big aspirations, and those at the bottom of the standings are trying to throw their hats into the mix.
Before games resume on Thursday, here are five predictions for the remainder of the season.
Which team will come out on top in the second half?
Sabreena Trader: Minnesota. The Lynx have Napheesa Collier back, and they’re plus-11.4 per 100 possessions with her on the court. Cheryl Reeve no longer has the weight of the world on her shoulders after Team USA won gold in Paris. Minnesota has had the league’s best defense this season, despite the July setback caused by Collier’s absence. Now fully healthy, the Lynx can take advantage of the league’s easiest remaining schedule — a .441 opponent winning percentage awaits, for Tankathon.
TWICE. 🥇 photo.twitter.com/Iqs4yFB8Tm
— Minnesota Lynx (@minnesotalynx) August 11, 2024
Ben Pickman: Will the Atlanta Dream finish in the top six of the standings? Probably not. But if you’re going to circle a franchise in the 7-12 bracket as a team that could look drastically different in the second half of the season, keep a close eye on the Dream. Atlanta entered the All-Star/Olympic break 7-17 and in ninth place. The biggest reason to expect positive change is that the time off gave the Dream’s best players time to recover. Starwing Rhyne Howard missed a month with a left ankle injury, and during Howard’s absence, Atlanta won just one game. She returned for the final game before the Olympic break before helping the U.S. 3×3 team win bronze. Perhaps just as importantly, key offseason acquisition Jordin Canada played just four games in the first half of the season due to two injuries. Her return could be a major boost for Atlanta’s offense, which was ranked 11th in offense prior to Howard’s injury on June 19. With Canada, Howard and Allisha Gray all playing together, Atlanta is shaping up to be a dangerous group to slow down.
What is your biggest question?
Pickman: Will Olympic stars who are not yet under contract be given a franchise in the final stages?
Maybe this is a bit of a review bias, but I’m looking forward to seeing if Emma Meesseman (Belgium), Gabby Williams (France) or Marine Johannes (France) sign with a WNBA franchise to help out in the second half. Despite the prioritization rule going into effect in May, all three are still eligible to join the W if they want to due to a small CBA leak. Of course, not all WNBA contenders have the cap space to sign one of these players, but all three could make a difference. Johannes has proven to have a spurt of impact coming off the New York Liberty bench. Williams showed fearlessness and high-level playmaking during the Olympics, and she’s performed in the WNBA with the Seattle Storm. Meesseman hasn’t played in the WNBA since 2022, but she has won the EuroLeague MVP the past two seasons and was the best player not named A’ja Wilson at the Paris Olympics.
Trader: Do the Aces have what it takes to pull off a three-peat?
A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum each rank in the top 15 in minutes per game, plus they’ve played 163, 115 and 90 minutes, respectively, during the Olympics (not including the All-Star Game or other exhibitions). Las Vegas is tied for the most games remaining in the league with 16 and has the third-toughest schedule. The Aces are currently in fifth place, so they’ll have to jump at least one team to gain home-field advantage in the first round and potentially two more for home-field advantage in the WNBA semifinals. They already have the best chance of any opponent as the reigning champions, and now they’ll have to make up ground with a group that’s been heavily worked over the first half of the season. It seems foolish to bet against Wilson and Co. after the success of the last two years, but 2024 has been an extra challenge from the start. At a neutral site with rest, I’d pick Las Vegas over any other team, but the circumstances won’t be as favorable for the Aces going forward. Being able to come back from behind after setting the pace last year will be a new task for this team.
Who will be Rookie of the Year?
Trader: Caitlin Clark.
Perhaps never before has a rookie entered the league with such high expectations. Not only was she tasked with turning the Indiana Fever into a contender, she also carried the burden of the entire league on her shoulders. She has delivered in so many ways, skyrocketing the WNBA’s popularity and steadily improving on the court. She leads the league in assists and is the best in points per game for rookies. Clark also leads freshmen in usage (24.8 percent) and has the highest effective field-goal percentage (50.9 percent) among rookies who have averaged at least 25 minutes in at least 18 appearances this season.
Clark’s individual numbers are hard to argue with, but it’s not a given because Angel Reese has had a bigger impact on the team’s success. Reese has a plus-3.4 net rating while Clark trails at minus-6.8. What’s more, the Sky are 24.9 points per 100 possessions better when Reese is playing, and the Fever are essentially neutral whether Clark is on or off the court. However, team context isn’t enough to offset what Clark has accomplished at the toughest position and while still atop the scouting report.
Pickman: Caitlin Clark.
It feels like an eternity since Clark last played in a WNBA game. But let no one forget that in her final game before the multi-week hiatus, Clark set a new WNBA single-game record with 19 assists. With 11 games in 20 days to play, Clark and the Fever got off to a slower start than many on the outside expected at the start of the season. But since Indiana’s early-season sprint that ended on June 2, Indiana ranks sixth in net rating, and Clark’s net rating is nearly 16 points better per 100 possessions. She leads the league in assists, ranks third in 3-pointers made and ranks seventh in total points, while playing the second-most minutes of anyone in the WNBA. More than any single stat, if she can continue to improve in her first half as she did in June and July, Indiana could also become the kind of opponent no other franchise wants to face in the playoffs.
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Who will win the MVP award?
Pickman: Like Wilson.
She should win MVP and she will win MVP. The biggest question going into the first half of the season was whether it would be a unanimous vote. Jonquel Jones and Elena Delle Donne have been close in recent years, but with a second half of the season as strong as Wilson’s first, that could be another aspect she adds to her legacy this summer.
Trader: Like Wilson.
Exactly what Ben said. The WNBA can now start creating that trophy for Wilson as she joins the three-time winners club of Lauren Jackson, Lisa Leslie and Sheryl Swoopes.
Who will win the WNBA championship?
Trader: I was burned by picking New York at the start of the 2023 regular season and at the start of the 2023 Finals, but here I am, seduced by the Liberty again. They’ve had a superlative first half of the season and have the depth to stay fresh in the final month leading up to the playoffs. Vegas retains the head coaching advantage and the Aces have the best player in the world, but New York might just have the better team this time around.
Pickman: The Liberty have been the WNBA’s best team so far, with Sabrina Ionescu’s steady ascent, Jones’ dominance and the emergence of viable backup options all helping New York get off to a hot start. But the Aces haven’t done enough to sway me from my preseason title pick. Sure, the eight losses are the most since 2022, but with Chelsea Gray in the starting lineup, Vegas is 8-2 with a plus-12.3 net rating, slightly ahead of the Liberty. Wilson is better, and so is Jackie Young. The Aces may not have home court this postseason, but I’m not convinced that matters.
(Photo by A’ja Wilson: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
