Why It Never Made Sense for Arch Manning to Leave Texas After Quinn Ewers Returned

On January 11, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers posted a video to more than 200,000 Instagram followers in which he signed a trading card with his face and added a message underneath.

“I’ll be back,” he wrote, holding the card up to the camera.

What is the top comment on the post?

“You’re going to lose Manning,” it read, adding a few laughing emojis aimed at the Longhorns’ predicted misfortunes.

Manning, as in Arch Manning: a five-star recruit, and the son of Cooper, nephew of Eli and Peyton, and grandson of Archie. Ewers’ surprising decision was about chasing Texas’ first national title since 2005, but the commentator wasn’t the only one drawing attention to college football’s most famous backup in an era where there’s no penalty for transfers.

Even before Ewers decided to return, Manning was already facing questions about his departure at the Sugar Bowl, having barely seen the field in his first season.

“It’s tough because you want to be outside playing with your boys,” Manning said The Athletics in July. “But I realized that I didn’t want to be anywhere else, and that my dream was to play in Texas. I’m going to stick with it and eventually play there,”

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Arch Manning and other QBs explain their decision to move or stay

He made the same decision Ewers made: He came back. He always came back. Now, Manning will likely make his first career start against Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday, as Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Ewers is doubtful to play after pulling his obliques against UTSA.

“Arch is just another guy on our team, and the reason I can do that is because Arch is that guy, every single day,” Sarkisian said Monday. “He’s the selfless teammate. He cares about the guys on the team. He cares about Quinn. They have a great relationship. He works his butt off. He wants to play good football for them because he knows how hard everyone works.

“So I literally don’t discuss it with him. I don’t discuss it with the team. He’s just part of the team.”

Arch Manning threw for 223 yards and had five total touchdowns against UTSA. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)

There was a time when quarterbacks hitting the field before their sophomore or junior year was an anomaly. Now it’s an expectation, at least for five-star prospects. When Manning’s name never entered the transfer portal, he bucked a decade of trends among college quarterbacks.

The decisions that go into a transfer are different for every player, but with Manning expected to take his first starting spot, we can see why a departure would raise more questions than answers and create more problems than solutions.

Though Manning has thrown just 23 passes in four appearances since arriving in 2023, things have largely gone according to plan at Texas — even if winning the starting job was delayed a year with Ewers’ return. Manning is one solid season away from crystallizing his status as a first-round draft pick, and he has plenty of time to do so with three years of eligibility remaining after this season. His path to the field became clearer when last year’s backup Maalik Murphy transferred to Duke, and another year behind Ewers would only make the results better when it’s time for his turn in the spotlight.

His growing pains were more likely to occur during closed practices. They didn’t have to manifest themselves in nationally televised games the way young quarterbacks are called upon to be lifesavers like freshmen Dylan Raiola at Nebraska and DJ Lagway at Florida. But when given the chance, he excelled. On Saturday, forced into extended duty against an outmatched UTSA team, he threw a touchdown pass on his first attempt, blasted past a safety for a 67-yard touchdown run and finished with three more touchdown passes in a 56-7 blowout win.

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With Quinn Ewers injured, Arch Manning scores five TDs against UTSA

If he starts Saturday, it will be his first start for a Texas team ranked No. 1 in the AP poll since 2008, when Colt McCoy was under center for the Longhorns. McCoy also didn’t play his first season with Texas.

Since high school, everything the Mannings have done with Arch points to a big-picture approach, focused on a long NFL career, not the fastest path to the playing field or the best way to monetize his college stardom. Manning’s recruitment was straight out of 1995: If you don’t have DMs, reporters and coaches can’t slide in, and it’s also easier for coaches and parents to control coaches’ access to you.

He’s a non-factor on social media. He’s barely spoken to reporters about his college decision, a family strategy that stemmed from a desire to let him have a more normal high school life. His family background allows him to shrug off the obligations of chasing NIL money, as well as his status as a likely NFL Draft pick once he steps onto the field.

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Arch Manning’s Unique Approach to Recruiting

Now, his decision to remain patient in college is also old hat. NIL money is the invisible hand that guides players in and out of the transfer portal, but the success his family has enjoyed means money was never going to sway his decision. As of last December, his only NIL deal was an exclusive trading card partnership with Panini America, despite false reports that he was making millions as Texas’ third quarterback. After initially declining to be drafted, he opted to allow his name, image and likeness to be used in EA Sports’ College Football 25.

Manning has done little to nothing to grow his brand, and yet the brand he was born with has made him one of the top five names in college football.

Ewers returned to Texas with national title aspirations in Texas’ first season in the SEC after reaching the College Football Playoff a season ago, narrowly losing to Washington in the semifinals. His faith in Sarkisian and the team returning to Austin has been rewarded so far, and Manning saw the same.

If the program had been on shakier ground when it entered the SEC, it makes sense that Manning would have considered entering the portal. But Texas is as strong as it has been since the Mack Brown heyday of the 2000s. Why would Manning leave and adjust to new coaches, a new play caller, a new offense and a new head coach for what would almost certainly be a worse team?

And then there’s the uncomfortable reality that Ewers, who could be the first quarterback selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, has been one of the most injury-prone QBs in college football, even as he’s developed into one of the best. When he pulled his obliques on Saturday, he did so as a favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. He’s missed just under four games in 2022 after injuring his shoulder in a narrow loss to Alabama. In 2023, he’s missed two Big 12 games with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder. Texas turned to Murphy to keep its Big 12 and national title hopes on track, surviving a surprise upset by Kansas State while Ewers healed.

Now Ewers is injured again and Manning looked to be America’s best backup quarterback as a reliever against UTSA.

Regardless of Ewers’ willingness to play, it would be wise to give Manning the keys for a game against ULM in which Texas is a 45-point favorite. The next two opponents, Louisiana-Monroe and Mississippi State, are unlikely to test the Longhorns, and Ewers seems likely to return by the time the pressure mounts for a national championship when Texas meets Oklahoma in the Red River Showdown on Oct. 12 before Georgia comes to town on Oct. 19.

When Ewers stayed in Austin for another unexpected year, it was easy to expect Manning to act like any other quarterback and develop a wandering eye to find a new program. But Manning’s departure from Texas never made sense. His college football experience is unlike that of any other quarterback.

Why wouldn’t his decision making be any different?

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; photos: Eric Gay / Associated Press; Tim Warner/Getty Images)